Official/Final 2020 Rookie RB Ranks

[stoneghost28]

40 time=1591359395 user_id=33855]
For those holding Hunt in the hope that his value rebounds to his halcyon days - it's not going to happen. If he can be had cheap, then sure - but I know the owners I've talked to are valuing him like he's still the NFL rushing leader on the best offense in football. That window, to me, has closed.

I’ll disagree with the first sentence here. Hunt has proven that he’s equally adept in the running and passing games, and does not require an offense limiting its playbook when he is on the field, unlike a lot of RBs who don’t perform as well in one phase of the game. Plus he can be had relatively cheaply salary-wise and allows whatever team that makes a play for him as a 3 down RB to use their upper level draft picks to improve other positions.

You may be correct, but if a team (wisely IMO) decides next year that they can get a legit 3 down starting level RB at a what is likely a discounted price and decides to place him into that role, Hunt has clearly displayed enough talent that he can excel and be a premium RB. And let’s not overlook that he could take on more workload than what he was given in KC, which could make up for being in a less prolific offense.

That’s why you are seeing Hunt owners like me not giving him away at a discount in FF. There’s still a possibility of 4-5 years of premium production there, and he’s less of a crap shoot than incoming rookies. We know he can play at a very high level.

You had me until that. Kareem Hunt turns 25 before opening kickoff to the season (if it happens). If you respect the RB age cliff(s) at all, you need to be more circumspect with that. Perhaps the sharp decline in touches since mid-18 will help with his age curve though as others have argued, it seems to be an age thing, rather than a career touches thing, but the age curve is the curve and the outliers are rare and far between without even taking into account his suspension and most recent run in with the law. I'm with you if you see him as a value, I'm not with you if you think it's worth noting a possibility that he produces premium production until age 29-30 depending upon the odds you imply via possibility (if it's 10-20% okay, if it's 35-50+% then no).

My view is to go after him now if you think he's worth a turn pick in this draft, and especially if you can acquire him for a '21 or '22 asset instead, where the drafts are likely to be inferior and are more fluid at the moment due to covid. Personally, I'm not interested in moving '20 assets, but again, a '21 or '22 asset or asset collection equal more or less to a turn pick this year? That I'm interested in.

[Bronco Billy]

40 time=1591359395 user_id=33855]
For those holding Hunt in the hope that his value rebounds to his halcyon days - it's not going to happen. If he can be had cheap, then sure - but I know the owners I've talked to are valuing him like he's still the NFL rushing leader on the best offense in football. That window, to me, has closed.

I’ll disagree with the first sentence here. Hunt has proven that he’s equally adept in the running and passing games, and does not require an offense limiting its playbook when he is on the field, unlike a lot of RBs who don’t perform as well in one phase of the game. Plus he can be had relatively cheaply salary-wise and allows whatever team that makes a play for him as a 3 down RB to use their upper level draft picks to improve other positions.

You may be correct, but if a team (wisely IMO) decides next year that they can get a legit 3 down starting level RB at a what is likely a discounted price and decides to place him into that role, Hunt has clearly displayed enough talent that he can excel and be a premium RB. And let’s not overlook that he could take on more workload than what he was given in KC, which could make up for being in a less prolific offense.

That’s why you are seeing Hunt owners like me not giving him away at a discount in FF. There’s still a possibility of 4-5 years of premium production there, and he’s less of a crap shoot than incoming rookies. We know he can play at a very high level.

You had me until that. Kareem Hunt turns 25 before opening kickoff to the season (if it happens). If you respect the RB age cliff(s) at all, you need to be more circumspect with that. Perhaps the sharp decline in touches since mid-18 will help with his age curve though as others have argued, it seems to be an age thing, rather than a career touches thing, but the age curve is the curve and the outliers are rare and far between without even taking into account his suspension and most recent run in with the law. I'm with you if you see him as a value, I'm not with you if you think it's worth noting a possibility that he produces premium production until age 29-30 depending upon the odds you imply via possibility (if it's 10-20% okay, if it's 35-50+% then no).

My view is to go after him now if you think he's worth a turn pick in this draft, and especially if you can acquire him for a '21 or '22 asset instead, where the drafts are likely to be inferior and are more fluid at the moment due to covid. Personally, I'm not interested in moving '20 assets, but again, a '21 or '22 asset or asset collection equal more or less to a turn pick this year? That I'm interested in.

Thanks for the lecture. The list of guys below all say “Hi”. They had impact FF years at age 29 or older (if only age 29 and not beyond in parenthesis afterwards):

Emmitt Smith
Walter Payton
Marshall Faulk
Frank Gore
Ladainian Tomlinson
Barry Sanders
Curtis Martin
Adrian Peterson
Thurman Thomas
Tony Dorsett
Tiki Barber
Edgerrin James (29)
Eric Dickerson (29)
Warrick Dunn
Steven Jackson (29)
Ricky Watters
Jim Brown (29)
Matt Forte (29)
Franco Harris (29)
Fred Taylor
John Riggins
OJ Simpson
Cory Dillon
Roger Craig
Herschel Walker
Eddie George
Thomas Jones
Jamal Lewis (29)
James Brooks
Priest Holmes
Charlie Garner
Jim Taylor (29)
Brian Westbrook (29)
Garrison Hearst
Leroy Kelly (29)
Stephen Davis (29)
Michael Pittman (29)
Chuck Muncie
Floyd Little
Fred Jackson
Darren Sproles
John Henry Johnson
Joe Washington
Wendell Tyler (29)
Michael Turner (29)
Antowain Smith
James Stewart

[joeya2001]

I’ll disagree with the first sentence here. Hunt has proven that he’s equally adept in the running and passing games, and does not require an offense limiting its playbook when he is on the field, unlike a lot of RBs who don’t perform as well in one phase of the game. Plus he can be had relatively cheaply salary-wise and allows whatever team that makes a play for him as a 3 down RB to use their upper level draft picks to improve other positions.

You may be correct, but if a team (wisely IMO) decides next year that they can get a legit 3 down starting level RB at a what is likely a discounted price and decides to place him into that role, Hunt has clearly displayed enough talent that he can excel and be a premium RB. And let’s not overlook that he could take on more workload than what he was given in KC, which could make up for being in a less prolific offense.

That’s why you are seeing Hunt owners like me not giving him away at a discount in FF. There’s still a possibility of 4-5 years of premium production there, and he’s less of a crap shoot than incoming rookies. We know he can play at a very high level.

You had me until that. Kareem Hunt turns 25 before opening kickoff to the season (if it happens). If you respect the RB age cliff(s) at all, you need to be more circumspect with that. Perhaps the sharp decline in touches since mid-18 will help with his age curve though as others have argued, it seems to be an age thing, rather than a career touches thing, but the age curve is the curve and the outliers are rare and far between without even taking into account his suspension and most recent run in with the law. I'm with you if you see him as a value, I'm not with you if you think it's worth noting a possibility that he produces premium production until age 29-30 depending upon the odds you imply via possibility (if it's 10-20% okay, if it's 35-50+% then no).

My view is to go after him now if you think he's worth a turn pick in this draft, and especially if you can acquire him for a '21 or '22 asset instead, where the drafts are likely to be inferior and are more fluid at the moment due to covid. Personally, I'm not interested in moving '20 assets, but again, a '21 or '22 asset or asset collection equal more or less to a turn pick this year? That I'm interested in.

Thanks for the lecture. The list of guys below all say “Hi”. They had impact FF years at age 29 or older (if only age 29 and not beyond in parenthesis afterwards):

Emmitt Smith
Walter Payton
Marshall Faulk
Frank Gore
Ladainian Tomlinson
Barry Sanders
Curtis Martin
Adrian Peterson
Thurman Thomas
Tony Dorsett
Tiki Barber
Edgerrin James (29)
Eric Dickerson (29)
Warrick Dunn
Steven Jackson (29)
Ricky Watters
Jim Brown (29)
Matt Forte (29)
Franco Harris (29)
Fred Taylor
John Riggins
OJ Simpson
Cory Dillon
Roger Craig
Herschel Walker
Eddie George
Thomas Jones
Jamal Lewis (29)
James Brooks
Priest Holmes
Charlie Garner
Jim Taylor (29)
Brian Westbrook (29)
Garrison Hearst
Leroy Kelly (29)
Stephen Davis (29)
Michael Pittman (29)
Chuck Muncie
Floyd Little
Fred Jackson
Darren Sproles
John Henry Johnson
Joe Washington
Wendell Tyler (29)
Michael Turner (29)
Antowain Smith
James Stewart

Kudos for those playing dynasty and had them on your team!!

I mean if were going back to 1960 and this is your list, its still very small

[Bronco Billy]

You had me until that. Kareem Hunt turns 25 before opening kickoff to the season (if it happens). If you respect the RB age cliff(s) at all, you need to be more circumspect with that. Perhaps the sharp decline in touches since mid-18 will help with his age curve though as others have argued, it seems to be an age thing, rather than a career touches thing, but the age curve is the curve and the outliers are rare and far between without even taking into account his suspension and most recent run in with the law. I'm with you if you see him as a value, I'm not with you if you think it's worth noting a possibility that he produces premium production until age 29-30 depending upon the odds you imply via possibility (if it's 10-20% okay, if it's 35-50+% then no).

My view is to go after him now if you think he's worth a turn pick in this draft, and especially if you can acquire him for a '21 or '22 asset instead, where the drafts are likely to be inferior and are more fluid at the moment due to covid. Personally, I'm not interested in moving '20 assets, but again, a '21 or '22 asset or asset collection equal more or less to a turn pick this year? That I'm interested in.

Thanks for the lecture. The list of guys below all say “Hi”. They had impact FF years at age 29 or older (if only age 29 and not beyond in parenthesis afterwards):

Emmitt Smith
Walter Payton
Marshall Faulk
Frank Gore
Ladainian Tomlinson
Barry Sanders
Curtis Martin
Adrian Peterson
Thurman Thomas
Tony Dorsett
Tiki Barber
Edgerrin James (29)
Eric Dickerson (29)
Warrick Dunn
Steven Jackson (29)
Ricky Watters
Jim Brown (29)
Matt Forte (29)
Franco Harris (29)
Fred Taylor
John Riggins
OJ Simpson
Cory Dillon
Roger Craig
Herschel Walker
Eddie George
Thomas Jones
Jamal Lewis (29)
James Brooks
Priest Holmes
Charlie Garner
Jim Taylor (29)
Brian Westbrook (29)
Garrison Hearst
Leroy Kelly (29)
Stephen Davis (29)
Michael Pittman (29)
Chuck Muncie
Floyd Little
Fred Jackson
Darren Sproles
John Henry Johnson
Joe Washington
Wendell Tyler (29)
Michael Turner (29)
Antowain Smith
James Stewart

Kudos for those playing dynasty and had them on your team!!

I mean if were going back to 1960 and this is your list, its still very small

The point being that it happens. 3 and possibly 4 of those guys are still playing. This isn’t like waiting for lightning to strike the same spot a second time. There are guys who get it done, and I’d put Hunt’s talent and diversity above more than a few names on that list.

This isn’t RBs who played age 29 and beyond, it’s guys who were impact FF RBs at age 29 or older, and some of them posted multiple years of FF impact at age 29 and older.

[stoneghost28]

I’ll disagree with the first sentence here. Hunt has proven that he’s equally adept in the running and passing games, and does not require an offense limiting its playbook when he is on the field, unlike a lot of RBs who don’t perform as well in one phase of the game. Plus he can be had relatively cheaply salary-wise and allows whatever team that makes a play for him as a 3 down RB to use their upper level draft picks to improve other positions.

You may be correct, but if a team (wisely IMO) decides next year that they can get a legit 3 down starting level RB at a what is likely a discounted price and decides to place him into that role, Hunt has clearly displayed enough talent that he can excel and be a premium RB. And let’s not overlook that he could take on more workload than what he was given in KC, which could make up for being in a less prolific offense.

That’s why you are seeing Hunt owners like me not giving him away at a discount in FF. There’s still a possibility of 4-5 years of premium production there, and he’s less of a crap shoot than incoming rookies. We know he can play at a very high level.

You had me until that. Kareem Hunt turns 25 before opening kickoff to the season (if it happens). If you respect the RB age cliff(s) at all, you need to be more circumspect with that. Perhaps the sharp decline in touches since mid-18 will help with his age curve though as others have argued, it seems to be an age thing, rather than a career touches thing, but the age curve is the curve and the outliers are rare and far between without even taking into account his suspension and most recent run in with the law. I'm with you if you see him as a value, I'm not with you if you think it's worth noting a possibility that he produces premium production until age 29-30 depending upon the odds you imply via possibility (if it's 10-20% okay, if it's 35-50+% then no).

My view is to go after him now if you think he's worth a turn pick in this draft, and especially if you can acquire him for a '21 or '22 asset instead, where the drafts are likely to be inferior and are more fluid at the moment due to covid. Personally, I'm not interested in moving '20 assets, but again, a '21 or '22 asset or asset collection equal more or less to a turn pick this year? That I'm interested in.

Thanks for the lecture. The list of guys below all say “Hi”. They had impact FF years at age 29 or older (if only age 29 and not beyond in parenthesis afterwards):

Emmitt Smith-1990's
Walter Payton-1970's and 1980's
Marshall Faulk-1990's and early aughts.
Frank Gore-aughts and 2010's and you and I both know Frank Gore is essentially a RB designed by James Cameron in 1984.
Ladainian Tomlinson: Aughts and then hit the cliff.
Barry Sanders: 1989-1998
Curtis Martin: 1990's and early aughts
Adrian Peterson: Gore's kissing cousin of James Cameron imagined Terminator RB Freaks.
Thurman Thomas: 1987-1990's
Tony Dorsett: 1970's through 1980's
Tiki Barber: 1990's and early aughts
Edgerrin James (29): Aughts and he too went off a cliff in terms of his chief productive years very early unless you think his carcass getting handoffs in Arizona was actually glorious RB production.
Eric Dickerson (29): 1980's till early 1990's
Warrick Dunn: 1990's to early aughts.
Steven Jackson (29): Another guy whose career fell off as he passed the age cliff. An aughts era RB who lasted into the 2010's
Ricky Watters: 1990's
Jim Brown (29): 1950's/1960's if memory serves.
Matt Forte (29): 2008-2014 before falling off.
Franco Harris (29): Relevant in the seventies.
Fred Taylor: Kind of the opposite polarization of Frank Gore, literally couldn't take a step without sustaining injuries, 1998 into aughts.
John Riggins: 70's and 80's era RB.
OJ Simpson: 1970's
Cory Dillon: A late 90's/early aughts guy.
Roger Craig 80's till early 90's guy, classic example of a guy who hit the cliff at age 29.
Herschel Walker: '80's era
Eddie George: '90's till early aughts.
Thomas Jones: one of my fav hidden values guys from the later nineties and early aughts.
Jamal Lewis (29): he's an odd one due to the suspension but again his career was over more than ten years ago.
James Brooks: an '80's era guy.
Priest Holmes: '90's through early aughts.
Charlie Garner: '90's through early aughts.
Jim Taylor (29): Fifties and Sixties
Brian Westbrook (29): Aughts.
Garrison Hearst: Late nineties and early aughts.
Leroy Kelly (29): 60's and 70's
Stephen Davis (29): Nineties and early aughts.
Michael Pittman (29): Aughts
Chuck Muncie 70's and 80's
Floyd Little: 60's and 70's
Fred Jackson Aughts to 2010's
Darren Sproles: Present.
John Henry Johnson: 50's to 60's
Joe Washington: 70's and 80's era.
Wendell Tyler (29): 80's era.
Michael Turner (29): Aughts and early 2010's
Antowain Smith: Seriously?
James Stewart: Aughts and early 2010's

The VAST majority of your list is made up of guys who played decades ago in a different NFL or have you not noticed how much shorter RB careers have become in recent years? That since that famed RB run in early '05 (Brown, Caddy and Benson) only 2017 featured a similar early run on RB's, and even with the loaded '15, '17, '18 and '20 classes since, the NFL has still let the bulk of the talent drop to round 2, (even w/the advantage of the fifth year option in contracts for first rounders). Have you not noticed that the league is filled with LB's, Safeties, and Edge and interior players vastly bigger, and faster and more athletic than the freaking 1950's and 1960's and 1970's and 1980's let alone the 1990's or aughts?

There are 47 guys, how many have been relevant as highly productive players in the past 5 years?

Two.

Frank Gore
AP


How about the Past ten years?

Six: The aforementioned Frank Gore and AP as well as

Matt Forte
Steven Jackson
Jonathan Stewart (you didn't mention him)
Michael Turner (last productive year was 2011)

Now if you like, guys like Fred Jackson and Sproles can enter the conversation, but for the vast majority of their careers they were never viewed as assets as potentially valuable as a bell cow starter version of Hunt, or even Hunt during the second half of '19.

You just went to a lot of trouble to build this list, you must be the guy that produced this list before and I thought about slagging it off back then as well but I can't remember if I did, I think I just couldn't track it down. You're making a list of RB's who broke the RB age cliff when freaking John F Kennedy, LBJ, and Nixon were President. When Ford, and Reagan, and Bush 1 Were President. Essentially a billion years ago in football learning time. Since then we've gotten Plan B Free Agency, Free Agency, innumerable drugs and treatments and everything in-between, we've gone from leagues where guys smoked in the locker room to where guys have personal nutritionists handling all their meals while they live life as workout junkies. We went from a league where players were borderline blackout drunk at fundraisers mumbling to a SCOTUS JUDGE to loosen Up (Riggins) before falling asleep on the floor and where players were borrowing money from their team's owner to open hot dog stands so they didn't have to work in the offseason to players who could open 10,000 hot dog stands tomorrow if they felt like it on a lark.

It's a totally different world and the most relevant part of it is how the players and league has evolved, physically, and analytically as it's moved forward and probably the most important aspect that is relevant to this is that the league has moved away from a 60/40 run to pass ratio of the sixties and seventies, to a massively heavy pass to run ration instead and a corresponding decline in the value of RB's not just due to that, but also due to the RB age curve itself, to the perception that RB production is far more system and OL dependent than RB talent dependent. One could go on and on and on, but the proof is in the pudding here, you went to a lot of trouble to dig up 47 guys who broke the RB age curve (well 45, plus Jackson and Sproles who I really like(d) but weren't exactly bell cows (same applies to Joe Washington). Maybe that's pushing the goal posts, but regardless, even if you include those guys as elite members of the broke the age curve class, you're still depending upon 39 of your 47 examples being a decade or more past when they were actually productive, and if I really want to dig, 15 of your 47 examples or nearly 1/3 produced those seasons in the fifties, sixties, seventies and/or eighties in a league when many of the members of the Hogs of my childhood weighed the same as a modern NFL TE, or LB.

I'll give you terminator RB's like AP and Frank Gore, they are throw backs to a bygone era and the literal definition of the word outlier, they are the only RB's in the NFL (along with Mark Ingram) who've managed to get bell cow love in the past five years past that age curve. That, is essentially, my point. When you can only point to two guys in the past five years who've accomplished what you think is a legit possibility for a guy whose already been suspended and gotten in major trouble twice in less than two years what kind of argument do you really have. There have been a gazillion RB's trotted out as starters since the previous decade started, and only what, six guys on your list managed to break through amongst them past the RB age curve. There may be others you neglected to mention, like Ingram, but they remain few and far between, and clear and emphatic outliers.

If you grab one of those outliers, good on you, but this list proves literally nothing, other than that the NFL used to value RB's far more than it does today.

[Bronco Billy]

Yada yada yada yada

Did you count Ingram? He did it last year at age 30
How about McCoy at age 29 in 2017?
Blount for NE in 2016 at age 30?
Forte at 30, DeAngelo Williams at 32, and Rashaad Jennings 30 all did it in 2015.
Forte and Justin Forsett both at 29 in 2014.
Steven Jackson at age 29 in 2012.
Michael Turner at 29 and Fred Jackson at 30 in 2011.
You could even throw in Ladanian Tomlinson at 31 in 2010.
And that doesn’t include multiple years on the list for Gore and AP.

That’s 13 guys and a total of 18 seasons of age 29+ quality FF RB performance in the past 10 years.

I was just using names off the top career yards from scrimmage list to show that guys can do what you claim they can’t. Here’s some more that includes guys not on the top career yfs list.

Hey, just ignore facts and write novellas if you want. We’ll just have to agree to disagree and discuss Hunt’s value in about 5 more years I guess. I could very well be wrong about him, but it won’t be because it can’t be done.

[Ice]

The RB cliff doesn't mean good RBs suck once they hit the 26 year mark. It does go to some production fall off as they enter this age group. Bottom line, value concerns do enter the picture at 26 when buying or selling for many.

Personally speaking, I don't get concerned until the 28 age range for RB's on production if they are on my roster.

[MEuRaH]

I'm going to have to look at Akers. I didn't really see much of him all year. Is he running between the tackles? That was my main concern. If he is, that's a miss and a big one. If instead they are finding creative ways to get him carries, I'd be hesitant going forward. But hey, he's a smart kid on a smart team. I'm not too worried about him. I don't mind taking the L here and saying I was wrong on Akers. I hope that's the case, anyway.

I don't believe I ever looked at James Robinson. I wish I had.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

I'm going to have to look at Akers. I didn't really see much of him all year. Is he running between the tackles? That was my main concern. If he is, that's a miss and a big one. If instead they are finding creative ways to get him carries, I'd be hesitant going forward. But hey, he's a smart kid on a smart team. I'm not too worried about him. I don't mind taking the L here and saying I was wrong on Akers. I hope that's the case, anyway.

Just from watching a handful of Rams games I’d say the vast majority of his touches are runs between the tackles and the lack of creativity for his usage is maddening.

[Sriracha]

I'm going to have to look at Akers. I didn't really see much of him all year. Is he running between the tackles? That was my main concern. If he is, that's a miss and a big one. If instead they are finding creative ways to get him carries, I'd be hesitant going forward. But hey, he's a smart kid on a smart team. I'm not too worried about him. I don't mind taking the L here and saying I was wrong on Akers. I hope that's the case, anyway.

Just from watching a handful of Rams games I’d say the vast majority of his touches are runs between the tackles and the lack of creativity for his usage is maddening.

x2

5th highest average number of defenders in the box is bull poop.

[MEuRaH]

I just spent the last hour watching his season highlights and I'm genuinely confused. He's upright when he makes contact with defenders but he's moving the pile. He's not being asked to find many cutback lanes but he's doing it nearly perfectly when asked. He doesn't use proper technique when making defenders miss in the open field but he's making defenders miss.

WHAT THE HECK MAN!?

I don't know what to make of this. He's a completely different specimen than every other RB in the league. I'm in awe of what he's accomplished so far this year. Thankfully we get another week to see him play.

[Sriracha]

I just spent the last hour watching his season highlights and I'm genuinely confused. He's upright when he makes contact with defenders but he's moving the pile. He's not being asked to find many cutback lanes but he's doing it nearly perfectly when asked. He doesn't use proper technique when making defenders miss in the open field but he's making defenders miss.

WHAT THE HECK MAN!?

I don't know what to make of this. He's a completely different specimen than every other RB in the league. I'm in awe of what he's accomplished so far this year. Thankfully we get another week to see him play.

Moves like a 217lb Antonio Brown/Diontae Johnson, IMO could develop into the best route running RB in this class.

[OhCruelestRanter]

WHAT THE HECK MAN!?

I can explain this to you. I think I already have. It’s because none of this:

I just spent the last hour watching his season highlights and I'm genuinely confused. He's upright when he makes contact with defenders but he's moving the pile. He's not being asked to find many cutback lanes but he's doing it nearly perfectly when asked. He doesn't use proper technique when making defenders miss in the open field but he's making defenders miss.

actually matters. You’ve spent spent so much time focusing on ill-defined concepts that are impossible to prove like “proper technique” that you’ve ignored Akers’ ability. He’s got feature back size and feature back speed and he plays in an offense committed to running the football. It’s the same thing with Henry, the same thing with Chubb, the same thing with Taylor, the same thing with Cook. As prospects, these guys had abilities and/or production data that clearly correlated with NFL success, and each time you ignored it because when you watched their YouTube highlights you didn’t like the way they planted their foot, or you don’t think his technique in the open field is “proper”.

You’re confused about why you missed on Akers and you’ve been wrong about these other players because you’re spending way, way too much time focusing on things that nobody has ever demonstrated to be predictive in any way. I imagine you watching a prospect finish a 60 yard touchdown run where he runs through a linebacker near the line of scrimmage and pulls away from the entire defense and being bewildered at how he could have scored because he never switched the ball to his outside arm. Try focusing on the things that matter.

[bjd5211]

Get some new material man.

[Bronco Billy]

WHAT THE HECK MAN!?

I can explain this to you. I think I already have. It’s because none of this:

I just spent the last hour watching his season highlights and I'm genuinely confused. He's upright when he makes contact with defenders but he's moving the pile. He's not being asked to find many cutback lanes but he's doing it nearly perfectly when asked. He doesn't use proper technique when making defenders miss in the open field but he's making defenders miss.

actually matters. You’ve spent spent so much time focusing on ill-defined concepts that are impossible to prove like “proper technique” that you’ve ignored Akers’ ability. He’s got feature back size and feature back speed and he plays in an offense committed to running the football. It’s the same thing with Henry, the same thing with Chubb, the same thing with Taylor, the same thing with Cook. As prospects, these guys had abilities and/or production data that clearly correlated with NFL success, and each time you ignored it because when you watched their YouTube highlights you didn’t like the way they planted their foot, or you don’t think his technique in the open field is “proper”.

You’re confused about why you missed on Akers and you’ve been wrong about these other players because you’re spending way, way too much time focusing on things that nobody has ever demonstrated to be predictive in any way. I imagine you watching a prospect finish a 60 yard touchdown run where he runs through a linebacker near the line of scrimmage and pulls away from the entire defense and being bewildered at how he could have scored because he never switched the ball to his outside arm. Try focusing on the things that matter.

He’s not the only one who falls into this trap. Waldmann is notorious for it and is the reason I don’t put much stock into his opinions. These guys actually are knowledgeable to know what they are watching technically and put in incredible amounts of hours watching film for every bit of minutia. The effort expended is truly amazing.

The problem seems to be that they are so caught up in the micro that sometimes they ignore the macro. The amalgam of less than ideal traits can add up to a product that as a whole exceeds expectations. In engineering we call those caught up in this to be suffering “analysis paralysis”. They are so wrapped up in the perfect that the expend substantial time and effort honing parts of a project when “good enough” would have moved the project forward with a perfectly acceptable outcome at much greater efficiency and much less expense.

Then on top of it, knowing that they do have technical expertise and know the exceptional effort they put in, it manifests some arrogance that they are sure their judgment is superior. They do have the courage to put their results in front of all, which is highly commendable but is also why they do what they do in the first place - to put their work on full display. They can tend to exaggerate their success despite knowing full well that their predictions have been made in sight of everyone and they can get very defensive when critiqued on incorrect assessments, which can abrade on many who follow their predictions - that can be somewhat understandable given the some who can go over the top in taking them to task on their misses.

I’ll admit that years ago I used to fall into this trap. Part of my job as a coach was to watch film in an effort to improve players by diagnosing weaknesses and trying to coach them out of flaws. I’d spend hours on game tape looking for the little things that when corrected would make players better. I carried that over in FF also. It took a little bit to realize the error of my mistakes - I would completely ignore the amalgam of a player because I was focused on the minutia. I finally realized that I did much better just trusting my eyes in reviewing overall performance rather than drilling down into the minor flaws, and as a result my outcomes ended up being much more successful.

I managed to learn from my mistakes as well as recognizing that there is just no way to create a generalized model of success when dealing with such an incredibly variant creature as a human being. Some players are nothing less than amazing in how they can adjust to their flaws internally and self correct in other ways to overcome what would appear to be flaws that would make them incapable of success. You just can’t examine and measure some intangibles, which is why some apparent sure things miss and some apparent dregs rise to the top.

My advise would be to get away from drilling down so far into the minutia and focus instead on the overall player - in other words, trust your eyes. Own your mistakes and learn from them instead of trying of trying to cover them up to inflate your alleged successes - everyone sees the results and you aren’t going to bluff your way through it without damaging your credibility severely. And grow a thick skin if you are going to make your results public because there are always a few out there who will stalk you irrationally and relentlessly for your misses - learn to ignore them and instead interact with the greater majority who do want to learn - and to help. Take your misses - and your hits - in stride and know that you’ll have plenty more of both in the future. After all, you’re trying to predict future behavior of the incredibly unpredictable in human beings. And know finally that humility is going to win over a lot more people than arrogance.