Official/Final 2020 Rookie RB Ranks

[Chwf3rd]

You're being criticized for focusing on those (often correctable) flaws way too much

I don't know how you can measure "way too much". The rest of your reply, which is lengthy but repetitive or in some cases completely misses the mark on what I was trying to say, can be summarized quickly:

Focusing on the bad is the reason I haven't drafted a bust at RB in what seems like forever. I don't care about nailing the good/best players, I care about avoiding the risky ones. If there are 7 RBs and I recommend to stay away from 3 of them, and I'm wrong about 2 of the 3, I don't care as long as I'm right about the other 4. You wanna poke holes where I'm too low on a player? I'm fine with that. However, I would be devastated if I recommended everyone to draft a RB that turned out to be a bust.

Kerryon, Ballage, and DeAndre Washington beg to differ

[murphysxm]

Children, let's move on. If you don't like his process move on to the next column or do the work yourselves. All of have misses, all of us hit on sleepers. Don't pretend you could do better than Mike

[MEuRaH]

Children, let's move on. If you don't like his process move on to the next column or do the work yourselves. All of have misses, all of us hit on sleepers.

I used to put several hours into a post just for it to die off in a matter of hours or a day if I was lucky. I found that bold takes and/or criticism towards my opinions keeps my topics alive. It's the one reason I was recognized to begin with. But in this case, it's taking the thread off topic.

Back to Akers.

I spent nearly the entire morning re-evaluating him and I just can't seem to sway myself to rate him higher. Some notes on the games I just watched:

-- He's supposed to follow between the tackle and a kick-out block, plenty of room, decided to make his own cut and fails.
-- He didn't run full speed on an outside-in zone and a linebacker ran him down.
-- On a 3rd and 1 dive play he didn't penetrate as well as he should have (though it was a great play by a linebacker on the outside).
-- Lack of hesitation on a run play causes him to miss a giant cut back lane, loses a yard.
-- 3rd and 1 and he chooses to run laterally, never turning his hips up field.
-- A great spin move to avoid a tackler but inside near the LOS and he gets crushed.
-- Great jump cut but turns his hips sideways on a 3rd and 2, never points them downfield, barely misses the line to gain.
-- Bad/early decision on an inside-out zone.
-- Tried to do a stop-and-go but ended up using his inside foot to do it rather than outside. It worked, but that's not proper technique.

There's one play where he's supposed to follow his pulling guard to the right. The run is supposed to be inside but Akers takes it outside, allowing the defender on the guard to easily pull away and chase Akers down. You can see the guard's frustration as he lifts his arms as if to say "why do that?" I assume on this play he was looking for the home run rather than settle for a 3-4 yard gain as the play was designed for.

Hilariously on another run play Florida State linemen only had to block 3 guys and they let two of them through. Tons of runs getting stuffed. Several plays involving a lineman getting into the backfield too early. These are not his fault.

I found an amazingly good run vs Virginia that I was about to go into detail about. I watched it 10-20 times and then I realized that Chwr3d posted it in gif form. I've seen it before that too but I watch thousands of runs so I forget some of them. Spectacular run.

Found another good run on a 3rd and 1. Play design is left but it gets over-loaded immediately. He stops his momentum and semi jump cuts right to gain the yardage needed. The technique was poor but the awareness was upper level.

I found his best run. I don't ever remember seeing this one before. The announcer talks about his nice jump cut but I think there were flaws in it. However his stop and go is highlight worthy. https://youtu.be/dioRx8eaHgo?t=1226

I want to totally give up on the kid but it's plays like this that I cannot: https://youtu.be/wcJJjviYHbs?t=707 <-- and then again at 16:14

He's so great in open space. What display of power and speed. When he gets the call on a screen play he's the most dangerous man on the field. He's such an athlete that anywhere he had room he was able to make things happen. He avoided many tackles behind the LOS, and knifed his way through the line when only 1 yard was needed. All good things.

He has so much talent but he needs so much coaching. He's absolutely a project pick in my eyes. He's a smart kid so I assume he'll learn the offense but that's never a guarantee. I also have doubts about his upside/ceiling.

[bjd5211]

And for that we should all draft Antonio Gandy-Golden or KJ Hamler over Akers? Which is basically what you are saying when you say he shouldn't be drafted before round 3.

Does he carry some risk? Sure, but to be so risk adverse as to push him down to the 3rd round, 25th overall at best in a typical 12 team , is absolutely absurd.

[ericanadian]

And for that we should all draft Antonio Gandy-Golden or KJ Hamler over Akers? Which is basically what you are saying when you say he shouldn't be drafted before round 3.

Does he carry some risk? Sure, but to be so risk adverse as to push him down to the 3rd round, 25th overall at best in a typical 12 team , is absolutely absurd.

Pretty sure it was admitted that Akers probably should’ve been moved to a second round valuation. He went so far as to say he was too focused on what Akers couldn’t do rather than the positives he brings to the table.

[CGW]

And for that we should all draft Antonio Gandy-Golden or KJ Hamler over Akers? Which is basically what you are saying when you say he shouldn't be drafted before round 3.

Does he carry some risk? Sure, but to be so risk adverse as to push him down to the 3rd round, 25th overall at best in a typical 12 team , is absolutely absurd.

YOU should draft him based on where YOU have him ranked. This isnt gospel folks. Its one mans opinions.

Akers RB 5 for me. He's not a 3rd, but I'm also taking him with my 1.05, which is where I'm seeing a lot of projections and mocks.

[MEuRaH]

And for that we should all draft Antonio Gandy-Golden or KJ Hamler over Akers? Which is basically what you are saying when you say he shouldn't be drafted before round 3.

Does he carry some risk? Sure, but to be so risk adverse as to push him down to the 3rd round, 25th overall at best in a typical 12 team , is absolutely absurd.

Pretty sure it was admitted that Akers probably should’ve been moved to a second round valuation. He went so far as to say he was too focused on what Akers couldn’t do rather than the positives he brings to the table.

This. He's a second for me. I adjusted my ranks accordingly.

[Jigga94]

I can see the case for Akers as a 2nd in someone's ranks. I have 4 RB ahead of him and then 3 WR ahead also. He's in the next tier with 2 WR for me. Thats 10 so he's a late 1st for me. Would only take SF or a few WR ahead of him to make him a 2nd. Either way, thanks for the further insight on him

[Ice]

Bottom line; Player rankings are all over the map. I remember being bashed by everyone I knew for saying Trent Richardson would be an epic bust and don't draft him. Remember getting bashed for claiming Lacy would be a 1 contract player. Last year i was bashed for advocating DK Metcalf.

I have also made plenty of mistakes over the last 30 years.
Just to put individuals views on players in perspective.

In my IDP draft
1.7 Akers
1.8 Dobbins
1.9 Swift
1.12 Vaughn

4.11 Dillon

I picked Dillon and had him rated 1 spot higher than Akers with a late 2nd early 3rd round grade in this particular league. Pick valuation does change due to salary cap, contract years, IDP players, and start requirements are 1-3 RB's but that is a big valuation difference.

Don't really think either Akers or Dillon will be studs but time will tell. Obviously, the Akers owner and the defending champ think those 2 RB's will be great.

Every owner has over 20 years of fantasy experience.

[Zacsby]

And for that we should all draft Antonio Gandy-Golden or KJ Hamler over Akers? Which is basically what you are saying when you say he shouldn't be drafted before round 3.

Does he carry some risk? Sure, but to be so risk adverse as to push him down to the 3rd round, 25th overall at best in a typical 12 team , is absolutely absurd.

Haven't you heard, all these 2nd round WRs are the next Anthony Miller!

Not actually hating on Mike btw. Was only meant to be a light flame. Lol. But it does highlight the fact that where Mike would take someone in a draft should be somewhat irrelevant to you. It is directly dependent on how he feels about the rest of the players in the class, along with many other variables we inevitably have when making these decisions.

[OhCruelestRanter]

I think I should clarify- my opinion isn’t “Akers is good, so Mike’s rankings are bad.” Calling Akers a 3rd round pick demonstrated a poor thought process, sure, but that’s not the real problem.

Instead, I think it’s that Mike’s process of being hyper-focused on often-coachable flaws instead of quantifiable attributes that actually correlate with success is irreparably flawed, will consistently lead to the same predictable misses he’s become known for, and should not be used to produce rankings, but rather descriptive commentary.

His descriptions are nice and detailed, and he certainly tries hard. That should be commended. I just don’t think his process is compatible with ranking players. He even tacitly/unintentionally admitted this when he said

I don't care about nailing the good/best players,

[MEuRaH]

Here are some clarifications on my views of the RBs I ranked.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire - Long term back ~10 year career, bet on a slight under due to size. RB1 upside, top 5 upside.
Jonathan Taylor - Floor of ~3 years, ceiling of ~10 year career. Bet on the latter. RB1, top 5 upside.
JK Dobbins - Long term back ~10 year career. RB1 upside.
D'Andre Swift - Long term back ~10 year career. RB1 upside.
AJ Dillon - ~3/4 year as a starter in GB, low RB1 upside, mid-late RB2 or Flex upside after that elsewhere in the NFL.
Cam Akers - ~3 year floor, ceiling of ~10 year career. Close to a coin flip. RB1 ceiling.
Zack Moss - ~2-4 year career as RB2 or Flex. Backup after that.
Joshua Kelley - ~2-4 year career as RB2 or Flex. Backup after that.
Darrynton Evans - ~4 year as a backup. Possible starter for a year if DH moves on.
Eno Benjamin - Career backup, possible starter due to injury, trade immediately.
DeeJay Dallas - Career backup, possible flash as a starter, trade immediately.
Ke'Shawn Vaughn - Bust.

[OhCruelestRanter]

Now I’m more confused.

Jonathan Taylor - Floor of ~3 years, ceiling of ~10 year career. Bet on the latter. RB1, top 5 upside.

This is a guy that you’re “not drafting?”

Cam Akers - ~3 year floor, ceiling of ~10 year career. Close to a coin flip. RB1 ceiling.

And you thought this guy is a coin flip to be a RB1, and you had him in the second-third round of rookie drafts? How many first round rookie RBs do you think end up as RB1s?

Man, it was fun back when you said wild stuff, like calling Taylor the most overrated back in the class, or saying he wasn’t worth a top 6 pick. That was a bad take, but at least it was interesting. But this new thing, where you change your write-up every time somebody criticizes you, moving Akers from the 3rd round, to the 2nd round, to now he’s a coin flip to be a RB1? This is worse. Every post now reads like you’re just trying to hedge on every player so you don’t have to deal with the criticism if/when you’re wrong. It’s a bummer.

[Cult of Dionysus]

Mike has confirmed that some of his bolder takes and chest thumping were meant to gather attention.

The reality is that a lot of celebrities nowadays gain their positions through flash, not substance. And to a certain extent, that is what's happened with Mike. He got noticed and has benefitted from his approach. However, this approach is a double-edged sword, especially when dealing with discerning dynasty managers. And I fear that in the long run he may have done himself more harm than good, as many of us seek honest/objective analysis, and do not tolerate grandstanding or personal agendas, especially from "media" types who some of us hold to a higher standard.

If Mike was just a DLF poster, he can say and do whatever the heck he wants, based on any motivation or agenda. Look at me, I spout all types of crap and sometimes for entirely selfish reasons. I am also just a private poster.

Once you become a mod or writer for an established website that purports to be a reliable and quality source for dynasty news and analysis, then I think a person has to comport themselves with that higher standard.

[djeternal2]

Mike has confirmed that some of his bolder takes and chest thumping were meant to gather attention.

The reality is that a lot of celebrities nowadays gain their positions through flash, not substance. And to a certain extent, that is what's happened with Mike. He got noticed and has benefitted from his approach. However, this approach is a double-edged sword, especially when dealing with discerning dynasty managers. And I fear that in the long run he may have done himself more harm than good, as many of us seek honest/objective analysis, and do not tolerate grandstanding or personal agendas, especially from "media" types who some of us hold to a higher standard.

If Mike was just a DLF poster, he can say and do whatever the heck he wants, based on any motivation or agenda. Look at me, I spout all types of crap and sometimes for entirely selfish reasons. I am also just a private poster.

Once you become a mod or writer for an established website that purports to be a reliable and quality source for dynasty news and analysis, then I think a person has to comport themselves with that higher standard.