Official/Final 2020 Rookie RB Ranks

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dlf_mikeh
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Official/Final 2020 Rookie RB Ranks

Postby dlf_mikeh » Sun May 03, 2020 12:31 am

This was a little slower than I anticipated. My last article is going to post any day so I can finally reveal my final rankings here on the forums. These are my final rankings in tiers, not in order unless otherwise specified.

Article 1: https://dynastyleaguefootball.com/2020/ ... p-rbs-1-4/
Article 2: https://dynastyleaguefootball.com/2020/ ... p-rbs-5-8/
Article 3: https://dynastyleaguefootball.com/2020/ ... ing-backs/

——— RB Early 1st Rounders
Clyde Edwards-Helaire - PPR stud on explosive offense. I had CEH ranked near the top pre-draft. Placement with the Chiefs makes him my 1.01.
Jonathan Taylor - His floor still concerns me, but his upside with that coaching staff cannot be ignored. I won't be drafting him anywhere due to the risk I perceive, but I believe it's likely (above 50% chance) that he will be a stud in the NFL.
JK Dobbins - Great all-around back suited for day 1 in the NFL, on a team with a duel-threat QB, which is always amazing for RB stats. If he doesn't take over the starting job sometime this year, I'll be amazed.
D'Andre Swift - RB competition? Not scared of it. Matt Patricia outsmarting himself? Scared of it.
——— RB Late 1st Rounders
AJ Dillon - My favorite pick. There's more value here than with any of those guys listed above. His RB comparison is a ridiculous list of who's who. If he became a player on a level with the guys above, I wouldn't be shocked. If you're sitting at 1.10 and you need a RB, go ahead and pull the trigger.
——— RB 2nd Rounders
Cam Akers - Much like JT, he needs work. Smart kid though, could pull through, but I'd rather not risk it for anything more than a second, so it's safe to say I won't be drafting him. (Akers was a toss up between a late 2nd and early 3rd in my book. I originally went with a 3rd. Credit to Chwf3rd for convincing me to move him up.) Deeper analysis on Akers here.
——— RB 3rd Rounders
Zack Moss - 2 down back at best. TD dependent. 4 year player.
Joshua Kelley - Should start working in RBBC immediately. Lacks talent but has decent skills. 4 year player.
——— RB 4th Rounders
Darrynton Evans - Fits the system perfectly in Tennessee, but lacks so much skill. Project player.
Eno Benjamin - The kind of guy you draft so you can flip later for a future 2nd or 3rd. Otherwise, no thanks.
——— RB Dart Throws
DeeJay Dallas - Power back in a power system. Seattle always turns late/undrafted guys into starters. Ehh...
——— RB Bust List
Ke'Shawn Vaughn - Not skilled and not capable enough to ever be skilled. He's in my D Henderson/RoJo category.

============================

If I didn't mention anybody else it's because I don't believe in them or their situation enough to warrant a spot on this list, with the exception being Antonio Gibson, who I'm too scared to rank because of a lack of film needed to scout him properly.

(EDIT: 5/2/20) Here are some clarifications on my views of the RBs I ranked.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire - Long term back ~10 year career, bet on a slight under due to size. RB1 upside, top 5 upside.
Jonathan Taylor - Floor of ~3 years, ceiling of ~10 year career. Bet on the latter. RB1, top 5 upside.
JK Dobbins - Long term back ~10 year career. RB1 upside.
D'Andre Swift - Long term back ~10 year career. RB1 upside.
AJ Dillon - ~3/4 year as a starter in GB, low RB1 upside, mid-late RB2 or Flex upside after that elsewhere in the NFL.
Cam Akers - ~3 year floor, ceiling of ~10 year career. Close to a coin flip. RB1 ceiling.
Zack Moss - ~2-4 year career as RB2 or Flex. Backup after that.
Joshua Kelley - ~2-4 year career as RB2 or Flex. Backup after that.
Darrynton Evans - ~4 year as a backup. Possible starter for a year if DH moves on.
Eno Benjamin - Career backup, possible starter due to injury, trade immediately.
DeeJay Dallas - Career backup, possible flash as a starter, trade immediately.
Ke'Shawn Vaughn - Bust.
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Re: Official/Final 2020 Rookie RB Ranks

Postby FantasyFreak » Sun May 03, 2020 12:55 am

So you wouldn't draft Vaughn in the 4th round of a rookie draft, even though he went to a top landing spot at 76th overall in the draft? I am a bit confused as to the value systems here.

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Re: Official/Final 2020 Rookie RB Ranks

Postby Sriracha » Sun May 03, 2020 2:16 am

FantasyFreak wrote:
Sun May 03, 2020 12:55 am
So you wouldn't draft Vaughn in the 4th round of a rookie draft, even though he went to a top landing spot at 76th overall in the draft? I am a bit confused as to the value systems here.
Those are his own rankings for players; based on his own risk/reward assesment.

I'm with you on Vaughn. At worst, I take Vaughn in the back half of the 2nd round after all of the 4 star WR prospects are gone. I'd argue that Cam Akers should be there as well based off of draft capital and landing spot, alone.. but it's not like he'd ever get these players that far into the draft so quibbles with his demarcation system are more academic than practical.

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Re: Official/Final 2020 Rookie RB Ranks

Postby bjd5211 » Sun May 03, 2020 3:44 am

Akers not worth the risk of more than a 3rd round pick, lmfao...

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Re: Official/Final 2020 Rookie RB Ranks

Postby Bronco Billy » Sun May 03, 2020 5:55 am

Glad to see that you’re starting to come around on Taylor.

I think Moss is getting vastly under-appreciated by FFers right now. He has dropped like a rock in ADP. Talent always rises to the top and Moss has loads of it. He has a 3 down skill set and I see him as a significantly superior talent to Singletary - who isn’t bad by any means. There’s a lot of Kareem Hunt in his game IMO and I just can’t see how Singletary relegates him to a part time two down role. People put too much emphasis on situation (see a guy like Vaughn rising so much despite being pretty pedestrian). Talent will find its way onto the field.

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Re: Official/Final 2020 Rookie RB Ranks

Postby mgscott » Sun May 03, 2020 6:04 am

Thanks for the list. I agree with most of everything on here. A few quibbles here and there, but appreciate your thoughts and work.

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Re: Official/Final 2020 Rookie RB Ranks

Postby Bronco Billy » Sun May 03, 2020 6:15 am

mgscott wrote:
Sun May 03, 2020 6:04 am
Thanks for the list. I agree with most of everything on here. A few quibbles here and there, but appreciate your thoughts and work.
BTW +1 on the above

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Re: Official/Final 2020 Rookie RB Ranks

Postby dlf_mikeh » Sun May 03, 2020 8:34 am

Bronco Billy wrote:
Sun May 03, 2020 5:55 am
Glad to see that you’re starting to come around on Taylor.
I don't believe my opinion on Taylor ever changed. Most people had him as the sure-fire 1.01 and I did not. He has all the talent in the world but is sorely lacking skills. My stance was that he would need to go to a team where he can sit and learn in order to help guarantee future production, preferable on a team that utilizes power, and that happened. The Colts are a perfect fit. If he was a bust I wouldn't be shocked, but I expect elite production out of him instead. Due to the risk, I'm not drafting him.
FantasyFreak wrote:
Sun May 03, 2020 12:55 am
So you wouldn't draft Vaughn in the 4th round of a rookie draft, even though he went to a top landing spot at 76th overall in the draft? I am a bit confused as to the value systems here.
I said the same thing about RoJo & DH. He's a bust and he'll be a headache to own. Don't bother.
bjd5211 wrote:
Sun May 03, 2020 3:44 am
Akers not worth the risk of more than a 3rd round pick, lmfao...
Correct. I think he's fools gold. My guess is that he wins the job and might have a few good games, but he'll be a risky start week in and week out all season in year 1. He'll be too good to drop but not good enough to start on your roster; the worst kind of player to own. I'd rather not bother, but because of a few good weeks he'll be a flex play and thus worth a third rounder.
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Re: Official/Final 2020 Rookie RB Ranks

Postby Pac_Eddy » Sun May 03, 2020 8:40 am

While not being high on Akers is fine, it's silly to say you wouldn't draft him tll the third round.

Here can be flipped for good value, or as you said, really til he has a free good games and sell for max value.

Draft and trade is he's not a go you'd enjoy owning.
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Re: Official/Final 2020 Rookie RB Ranks

Postby dlf_mikeh » Sun May 03, 2020 8:54 am

Pac_Eddy wrote:
Sun May 03, 2020 8:40 am
While not being high on Akers is fine, it's silly to say you wouldn't draft him tll the third round.

Here can be flipped for good value, or as you said, really til he has a free good games and sell for max value.

Draft and trade is he's not a go you'd enjoy owning.
I thought about that, but if he lasted to the third, that means others feel the same way about him. Which means I can only flip him if his value went up from a 3rd, and I don't think it will be that easy.
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Re: Official/Final 2020 Rookie RB Ranks

Postby Jigga94 » Sun May 03, 2020 9:14 am

Well he's not lasting until the 3rd so it's useless speculation.
2QB, 2RB, 3WR, TE, FLEX - PPR - [b]14 Keepers[/b]
QB: Mahomes, J. Allen, Baker, D. Jones
RB: JT, Mostert (IR), Gaskin (IR), Dillon, Ingram, Mattison, Scott, McKissic
WR: Tyreek, DJM, Jeudy, Hollywood, Cooks, Mims, Hardman, Preston (IR), Parris (IR)
TE: Andrews, Fant, Henry
2021: 1.05-1.10, 2, 3

2QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, 3FLEX - PPR - [b]20 Keepers[/b]
QB: Mahomes, Ryan, Mullens, Luton, Minshew (IR)
RB: Saquon (IR), Jacobs, Dobbins, Hunt, Penny (IR)
WR: AJB, DJM, Chark, Ruggs, Hardman, Mike Will, C. Davis, C. Samuel, Mooney, Lazard, J. Washington
TE: Andrews, Henry, Gesicki, Irv, Tonyan
2021: 1.03-1.06, 2, 2, 3, 3
2022: 1, 1, 2, 3, 3

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Re: Official/Final 2020 Rookie RB Ranks

Postby TimeWillTell » Sun May 03, 2020 9:18 am

I think we're more into "hot takes" here on Akers and Vaughn than actual analysis. Normally I really like Mike's stuff even if I don't totally agree, but this is hyperbolic and useless since Akers nor Vaughn will ever drop that far.
12 Team 1QB 0.5 PPR 30 man roster
Start: 1QB,2RB,3WR,1TE,1Flex,1K,1Def
QB: Mahomes, Stafford, Jones
RB: Barkley, CEH, Taylor, Dobbins, Swift, Penny, Robinson
WR: Evans, DJM, AJB, Chark, Lamb, Jeudy, J Jefferson, Ruggs, Higgins, P. Williams, Edwards, Shenault, Mims
TE: Andrews, Jonnu, Hock, Hurst
K: Some guy
Def: Who knows
2021 Picks: 2nd

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Re: Official/Final 2020 Rookie RB Ranks

Postby OhCruelestRanter » Sun May 03, 2020 9:31 am

dlf_mikeh wrote:
Sun May 03, 2020 8:34 am
I don't believe my opinion on Taylor ever changed.
lol you said he wasn’t worth a top 6 rookie pick, something that was immediately criticized. Now you have him as RB2. But sure, it hasn’t changed.

Does anybody else find the construct of saying Taylor is RB2, but also “I’m not drafting him” to be not particularly useful? Feels to me like a transparent hedge. If Taylor is great: “Look! I had him RB2!” If Taylor busts: “Well I said I wasn’t drafting him!”

Anyways, these rankings are essentially Rookie ADP with these changes:
Akers as RB6 instead of RB5
Dillon as RB5 instead of RB8
Vaughn as undraftable instead of RB6
Everything else is chalk. We’ll see how these three look in a year or so.

Thanks for sharing your thoughts!
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Re: Official/Final 2020 Rookie RB Ranks

Postby dlf_mikeh » Sun May 03, 2020 9:44 am

OhCruelestRanter wrote:
Sun May 03, 2020 9:31 am
dlf_mikeh wrote:
Sun May 03, 2020 8:34 am
I don't believe my opinion on Taylor ever changed.
lol you said he wasn’t worth a top 6 rookie pick, something that was immediately criticized. Now you have him as RB2. But sure, it hasn’t changed.

Does anybody else find the construct of saying Taylor is RB2, but also “I’m not drafting him” to be not particularly useful? Feels to me like a transparent hedge. If Taylor is great: “Look! I had him RB2!” If Taylor busts: “Well I said I wasn’t drafting him!”

Anyways, these rankings are essentially Rookie ADP with these changes:
Akers as RB6 instead of RB5
Dillon as RB5 instead of RB8
Vaughn as undraftable instead of RB6
Everything else is chalk. We’ll see how these three look in a year or so.

Thanks for sharing your thoughts!
These are tiers, with the exception that CEH is ranked as my 1.01. Having JT listed 2nd does not make him my RB2. I said that in the original post.

I gave my official top 12 here. Depending on league settings. JT would be my #6 in PPR, #3 in standard. And since my ranks are far lower than others, I won't be drafting him.
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Re: Official/Final 2020 Rookie RB Ranks

Postby Pac_Eddy » Sun May 03, 2020 9:54 am

When he says he's not drafting Taylor, I think he means at his ADP. If Taylor falls a few spots, I'm betting Mike would nab him and trade him later. Much like the Akers discussion in this thread, the value is too good.
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