Aaron Jones...sell??

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Cameron Giles
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Re: Aaron Jones...sell??

Postby Cameron Giles » Wed Apr 29, 2020 10:06 am

ericanadian wrote:
Tue Apr 28, 2020 1:47 pm
This isn’t the same Green Bay management that never paid RBs, so I’m not sure why people are talking about Jones like he’s for sure leaving as an FA. I think LaFleur is trying to recreate the Henry/Lewis tandem he had in Tennessee. He tried to do it with Williams/Jones last year, but Williams isn’t very good. While its no sure thing that they extend Jones, I don’t think he’ll break the bank in this environment and I can absolutely see Green Bay paying him and running a tandem. A lot of rumours seem to point towards a more run heavy system and less reliance on Rodgers and two capable RBs would be a step towards that.
Spoiler: Jones isn't the Henry role.

Even if Jones stays, Dillon is an early down, volume running back in the Henry mold and is going to eat into his carries and redzone usage. With a back that big, you can't keep him off the field in goal line formations.

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Re: Aaron Jones...sell??

Postby ericanadian » Wed Apr 29, 2020 10:53 am

Cameron Giles wrote:
Wed Apr 29, 2020 10:06 am
ericanadian wrote:
Tue Apr 28, 2020 1:47 pm
This isn’t the same Green Bay management that never paid RBs, so I’m not sure why people are talking about Jones like he’s for sure leaving as an FA. I think LaFleur is trying to recreate the Henry/Lewis tandem he had in Tennessee. He tried to do it with Williams/Jones last year, but Williams isn’t very good. While its no sure thing that they extend Jones, I don’t think he’ll break the bank in this environment and I can absolutely see Green Bay paying him and running a tandem. A lot of rumours seem to point towards a more run heavy system and less reliance on Rodgers and two capable RBs would be a step towards that.
Spoiler: Jones isn't the Henry role.

Even if Jones stays, Dillon is an early down, volume running back in the Henry mold and is going to eat into his carries and redzone usage. With a back that big, you can't keep him off the field in goal line formations.
No doubt, but Lewis being completely ineffective had more to do with the distribution than LaFleur’s plan. Through the first five games, the carry split was 65-55 in Henry’s favour with the targets being 25-5 the other way. Keep in mind that they were 3-2 over those games and within one score on both losses, so the split wasn’t because Tennessee was playing from behind and in constant passing downs.

I think it’s safe to say that Jones will average better than 3.2 YPA over the first five games.
All I Der Is Win - 16 Team IDP League (Pass TD 6pts)

QB - Stafford, Tannehill, Mariota
RB - Gordon, Cook, Penny, Guice, Harris, Laird, Love
WR - Julio, C. Davis, AJ Brown, Samuel, Washington, Di. Johnson, Isabella
TE - Henry, Andrews
LB - Kuechly, R. Smith
DL - Hunter, Armstead, Quinn
DB - D. James, Baker, Edmunds
K - Just a stupid kicker

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Vcize
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Re: Aaron Jones...sell??

Postby Vcize » Wed Apr 29, 2020 2:51 pm

So sellers, what are you selling for? Because I am a buyer.

I own 1.09 in a few 1qb leagues. Would that get it done at this point?
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QB: Brady, Burrow
RB: Barkley, Mixon, A Jones, Hunt, Coleman, Ballage
WR: Hopkins, Hill, Lockett, J Jefferson, Fulgham, Preston
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Re: Aaron Jones...sell??

Postby Pac_Eddy » Wed Apr 29, 2020 3:08 pm

Vcize wrote:
Wed Apr 29, 2020 2:51 pm
So sellers, what are you selling for? Because I am a buyer.

I own 1.09 in a few 1qb leagues. Would that get it done at this point?
Offer the 1.09 plus a smaller piece like a third or Ian Thomas.
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Re: Aaron Jones...sell??

Postby Ice » Wed Apr 29, 2020 3:24 pm

Must be tough to be a Packers fan. Rodgers and Jones are probably both drinking heavily wondering WTF is going on just like their fans. Just a horrible draft IMO.

If you can get a 1st for him its a good time to sell but good luck now. Very few owners will give up any 1 for him. His value is going to take a hit in the red zone no doubt. His real value is higher than his market value.
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Re: Aaron Jones...sell??

Postby drbuttermaker » Wed Apr 29, 2020 4:52 pm

Ice wrote:
Wed Apr 29, 2020 3:24 pm
Must be tough to be a Packers fan. Rodgers and Jones are probably both drinking heavily wondering WTF is going on just like their fans. Just a horrible draft IMO.

If you can get a 1st for him its a good time to sell but good luck now. Very few owners will give up any 1 for him. His value is going to take a hit in the red zone no doubt. His real value is higher than his market value.
As the kids say, "this."

I sold him last offseason for firsts in '21 and '23 after drafting him in the third. One of my favorite flips.

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Re: Aaron Jones...sell??

Postby DynoScout » Wed Apr 29, 2020 7:41 pm

Buy on the Dillon dip with an eye toward a steady role as a pass catcher, even lining up in the slot with Dillon in the backfield

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Re: Aaron Jones...sell??

Postby NickGB » Thu May 21, 2020 4:39 am

Cameron Giles wrote:
Wed Apr 29, 2020 10:06 am
ericanadian wrote:
Tue Apr 28, 2020 1:47 pm
This isn’t the same Green Bay management that never paid RBs, so I’m not sure why people are talking about Jones like he’s for sure leaving as an FA. I think LaFleur is trying to recreate the Henry/Lewis tandem he had in Tennessee. He tried to do it with Williams/Jones last year, but Williams isn’t very good. While its no sure thing that they extend Jones, I don’t think he’ll break the bank in this environment and I can absolutely see Green Bay paying him and running a tandem. A lot of rumours seem to point towards a more run heavy system and less reliance on Rodgers and two capable RBs would be a step towards that.
Spoiler: Jones isn't the Henry role.

Even if Jones stays, Dillon is an early down, volume running back in the Henry mold and is going to eat into his carries and redzone usage. With a back that big, you can't keep him off the field in goal line formations.
As a Packer fan, 100% -- I don't even think the Packers keep him after this season. Where he values himself and where the Packers value him are likely highly different ballparks. I think the Packers look at Aaron Jones in the Dion Lewis mold the Derrick Henry / Lewis duo with Dillion being their bell cow. If he's on your roster and you aren't contending, he's a sell imo.
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Re: Aaron Jones...sell??

Postby ItsHandsomeDave » Sun May 24, 2020 6:34 am

I wonder if people are not misreading the situation here a bit, but also being a bit too greedy in their expectations.

I am a Packers fan and its been frustrating to watch them avoid WR's at the top of the draft over the last few years, but as bad as this years draft appears to be on the surface it was inline with what the coaching staff have been saying they are going to do. I think a lot of it is also dealing with Rodgers a bit who I doubt was happy with the direction the team decided to take when it wanted to build around the run game rather than his arm. More and more talk is that drafting Love was a shot across the bow for him, he either falls in line or they will move on.

And they are going to run the ball again. A ton. And they are going to run the clock. It already started to pay dividends last year. Packers went 13-3, and that was with Adams off the field or playing with injuries for a large chunk of the season too. In 2018 they went 6-9-1 in a year that they grabbed 3 WR's in the draft, and in 2017 they went 7-9. 10-6 in 2016. 10-6 in 2015. Clearly things were not working, but they did last year.

Jones carried them through a lot of this, but its unrealistic to expect him to be able to maintain that sort of volume. He is not Zeke or Barkley, you are not going to build a game around this guy. He is just the best they had and he did well with the opportunity they gave him. He is a solid back with a great skill set and he can finish, there is no reason not to load him up again this year. It is very unlikely that he is going to repeat his 2019 season though, but who here has this guy as their RB1 long term anyway? You never drafted him to be one, and chances are when you traded for him you did not pay a massive premium for him either.

To think that he is going to be relegated though to Dion Lewis status is absurd. Jamaal Williams had almost 40 receptions and scored 6 TD's last year, and he missed a few games too. He also put up 700 yards. But he is all they have behind Jones, so it made all the sense in the world to draft another RB. Particularly given how much they intend to run and the injury history both of those guys carry. The RB' are going to eat in this team.

To think that GBP are going to just relegate Aaron Jones to Jamaal Williams status though after the way he played last year makes no sense at all. He is not going to repeat 2019, but his price is lower than it should be. He is going to be a very solid RB2 with a lot of RB1 weeks sprinkled in. And maybe we see an uptick in efficiency too now that he does not have to carry the load.

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Re: Aaron Jones...sell??

Postby dynastyninja » Sun May 24, 2020 8:42 am

I always find myself being much lower on Aaron Jones than what I think is his market value, but now I'm starting to wonder if he isn't a buy low. Still not his biggest fan, but maybe his price is low enough that it's worth gambling on him keeping a lot of touches in GB.

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Re: Aaron Jones...sell??

Postby ericanadian » Sun May 24, 2020 9:02 am

ItsHandsomeDave wrote:
Sun May 24, 2020 6:34 am
I wonder if people are not misreading the situation here a bit, but also being a bit too greedy in their expectations.

I am a Packers fan and its been frustrating to watch them avoid WR's at the top of the draft over the last few years, but as bad as this years draft appears to be on the surface it was inline with what the coaching staff have been saying they are going to do. I think a lot of it is also dealing with Rodgers a bit who I doubt was happy with the direction the team decided to take when it wanted to build around the run game rather than his arm. More and more talk is that drafting Love was a shot across the bow for him, he either falls in line or they will move on.

And they are going to run the ball again. A ton. And they are going to run the clock. It already started to pay dividends last year. Packers went 13-3, and that was with Adams off the field or playing with injuries for a large chunk of the season too. In 2018 they went 6-9-1 in a year that they grabbed 3 WR's in the draft, and in 2017 they went 7-9. 10-6 in 2016. 10-6 in 2015. Clearly things were not working, but they did last year.

Jones carried them through a lot of this, but its unrealistic to expect him to be able to maintain that sort of volume. He is not Zeke or Barkley, you are not going to build a game around this guy. He is just the best they had and he did well with the opportunity they gave him. He is a solid back with a great skill set and he can finish, there is no reason not to load him up again this year. It is very unlikely that he is going to repeat his 2019 season though, but who here has this guy as their RB1 long term anyway? You never drafted him to be one, and chances are when you traded for him you did not pay a massive premium for him either.

To think that he is going to be relegated though to Dion Lewis status is absurd. Jamaal Williams had almost 40 receptions and scored 6 TD's last year, and he missed a few games too. He also put up 700 yards. But he is all they have behind Jones, so it made all the sense in the world to draft another RB. Particularly given how much they intend to run and the injury history both of those guys carry. The RB' are going to eat in this team.

To think that GBP are going to just relegate Aaron Jones to Jamaal Williams status though after the way he played last year makes no sense at all. He is not going to repeat 2019, but his price is lower than it should be. He is going to be a very solid RB2 with a lot of RB1 weeks sprinkled in. And maybe we see an uptick in efficiency too now that he does not have to carry the load.
I think you’re misunderstanding the Dion Lewis role. Lewis had 61% of the snaps, 155 carries and nearly 70 targets in his one year under LaFleur and that was with falling off the last few weeks because he was so awful. The Pack also ran about 80 more plays than the 2018 Titans. I don’t think it’s unreasonable to expect Jones to get 170-180 carries and stick at around 70 targets. That’s the Lewis role.
All I Der Is Win - 16 Team IDP League (Pass TD 6pts)

QB - Stafford, Tannehill, Mariota
RB - Gordon, Cook, Penny, Guice, Harris, Laird, Love
WR - Julio, C. Davis, AJ Brown, Samuel, Washington, Di. Johnson, Isabella
TE - Henry, Andrews
LB - Kuechly, R. Smith
DL - Hunter, Armstead, Quinn
DB - D. James, Baker, Edmunds
K - Just a stupid kicker

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Re: Aaron Jones...sell??

Postby mild » Sun May 24, 2020 1:35 pm

ItsHandsomeDave wrote:
Sun May 24, 2020 6:34 am
More and more talk is that drafting Love was a shot across the bow for him, he either falls in line or they will move on.
No, that's just flat out wrong. The writing is on the wall. You don't draft a 1st round QB (and trade up no less) unless the plan is for him to succeed the incumbent, and soon.

Fall in line or not, A-Rod is not much longer for Wisconsin.

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Re: Aaron Jones...sell??

Postby Pullo Vision » Mon May 25, 2020 9:20 pm

mild wrote:
Sun May 24, 2020 1:35 pm
ItsHandsomeDave wrote:
Sun May 24, 2020 6:34 am
More and more talk is that drafting Love was a shot across the bow for him, he either falls in line or they will move on.
No, that's just flat out wrong. The writing is on the wall. You don't draft a 1st round QB (and trade up no less) unless the plan is for him to succeed the incumbent, and soon.

Fall in line or not, A-Rod is not much longer for Wisconsin.
This is a com complete tangent from the thread title but imagine A-Rod in NE next year. Or Chicago, Dallas, NO, Las Vegas...
League #1- 14 tm ppr, 1Q, 2R, 3W, 1T, 1 R/W/T, 1K
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Re: Aaron Jones...sell??

Postby whaley88 » Tue May 26, 2020 9:48 am

Pullo Vision wrote:
Mon May 25, 2020 9:20 pm
mild wrote:
Sun May 24, 2020 1:35 pm
ItsHandsomeDave wrote:
Sun May 24, 2020 6:34 am
More and more talk is that drafting Love was a shot across the bow for him, he either falls in line or they will move on.
No, that's just flat out wrong. The writing is on the wall. You don't draft a 1st round QB (and trade up no less) unless the plan is for him to succeed the incumbent, and soon.

Fall in line or not, A-Rod is not much longer for Wisconsin.
This is a com complete tangent from the thread title but imagine A-Rod in NE next year. Or Chicago, Dallas, NO, Las Vegas...
hate to keep this thread off topic but as a panthers fan I would be crushed if in back to back years we got both brady and Rodgers into our division as rivals.

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Re: Aaron Jones...sell??

Postby zeeshan2 » Wed May 27, 2020 1:24 pm

Aaron Jones' agent, Chris Cabott, confirmed "there have been conversations" regarding a long-term extension with the Packers.
Jones admitted he "would love to be a lifelong Packer" but isn't sure it's plausible. Even so, Cabott has had ongoing conversations regarding a long-term deal for the 25-year-old ahead of 2020, the final year of Jones' contract.

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