Devonta Freeman Thread: Here we go ...

[ArrylT]

1.02 Royce Freeman - Rather Freeman

Which Freeman?

[moishetreats]

Freeman is a buy for sure. The prices that I've been seeing ppl throw around are so unrealistic it is comical. Talking about paying a 2nd...good luck buying a starting RB on a good offense for a 2nd lol. He's easily worth a 1st (should be worth more imo), especially in this draft class.

In this post, I'll attempt to illustrate that Freeman is worth a 2019 first at minimum.

Let's just brake down Freeman VS the first round picks last yr (much much better draft class imo). All ADP information is pulled from https://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/a ... m/all/2018.

1.01 Saquon Barkley - Rather Barkley
1.02 Royce Freeman - Rather Freeman
1.03 Sony Michel - Slight edge to Michel due to age
1.04 Kerryon Johnson - Rather KJ
1.05 Derrius Guice - Rather Guice
1.06 D.J. Moore - Rather DJM
1.07 Rashaad Penny - Rather Freeman
1.08 Ronald Jones II - Rather Freeman
1.09 Nick Chubb - Rather Chubb
1.10 Calvin Ridley - Rather Freeman
1.11 Baker Mayfield - In one QB, rather Freeman, everything else Rather Mayfield.
1.12 Courtland Sutton - Rather Freeman

*I'm speaking about current values, and obvs these are my own, pls don't try and sidetrack the entire discussion because you disagree with one or two little rankings. This is for a general sense. Feel free to make your own rankings as that would be interesting. Also I'm taking a competitive team viewpoint, obvs this changes a bit with a rebuilder.

So personally I'd take Freeman over 50% of the top 12, and if you split that into 1-6, and 7-12 portions. I'd take Freeman only over 17% of the top 6 picks, but I'd take him over 83% of the picks from 7-12.

Now you might not agree with all those assessments and that's fine, but that was also last years draft class which appears to much better than this upcoming class. This upcoming class looks to have more in common with the 2015 or 2016 class in terms of depth and overall strength. So let's compare to those just for fun.

2016

1.01 Ezekiel Elliott - Rather Zeke
1.02 Corey Coleman - Rather Freeman
1.03 Laquon Treadwell - Rather Freeman
1.04 Josh Doctson - Rather Freeman
1.05 Sterling Shepard - Rather Freeman
1.06 Derrick Henry - Tie due to current Henry hype
1.07 Michael Thomas - Rather Thomas
1.08 Kenneth Dixon - Rather Freeman
1.09 Tyler Boyd - Tie
1.10 Will Fuller - Rather Freeman due to position scarcity
1.11 CJ Prosise - Rather Freeman
1.12 Leontee Caroo - Rather Freeman

If we take out the ties, I'd rather Freeman over 80% of the top 12, and if you split that into 1-6, and 7-12 portions. I'd take Freeman over 80% of the top 6 picks, and I'd take him over 80% of the picks from 7-12.

2015

1.01 Todd Gurley - Rather Gurley
1.02 Amari Cooper - Rather Coop
1.03 Melvin Gordon - Rather Melvin
1.04 TJ Yeldon - Rather Freeman
1.05 DeVante Parker - Rather Freeman
1.06 Tevin Coleman - Rather Freeman
1.07 Ameer Abdullah - Rather Freeman
1.08 Nelson Agholor - Rather Freeman
1.09 Dorial Green-Beckham - Rather Freeman
1.10 Breshad Perriman - Rather Freeman
1.11 Jameis Winston - Rather Freeman
1.12 Marcus Mariota - Rather Freeman

For 2015, I'd rather Freeman over 75% of the top 12, and if you split that into 1-6, and 7-12 portions. I'd take Freeman over 50% of the top 6 picks, and I'd take him over 100% of the picks from 7-12.

This is a very long winded way of saying, don't overvalue you're draft picks for this upcoming draft, and I would advise any forum member to quickly sell a first if that's all it takes to obtain Freeman. That would be a steal. This draft isn't that great, or that deep. There is maybe 3 or 4 guys at most that MIGHT be difference makers, and if you don't have a top three pick, the chance that it hits, or that the player will produce more than Freeman is pretty poor.

I am fallible for sure, but it doesn't take Alan Turing to see that the hit rate of first rounders is pretty poor unless the draft class is exceptional, and everything I've read so far has said this class is far from exceptional (outside of 3-4 offensive players).

Agreed: I'd rather have Freeman than the player that I would draft at 1.06. But, that is doesn't mean that I'd rather have Freeman than 1.06.

Here's why: Come draft time, I think that there is an EXCELLENT chance that 1.06 would get you a better player than Freeman. So, by trading 1.06 for Freeman, you are getting a better player than the player that you would draft but are very likely giving up the opportunity to turn the pick into a better player than Freeman.

[btv802]

I took a shot on Freeman with my '19 1st from a team that was blowing up their roster midseason and ended up giving him the 1.05 when all was said and done. I've been trying to make a few quasi-aggressive moves in an attempt to try and contend sooner rather than later. Don't have any real regrets about that trade at this point in time. In my humble opinion, anybody suggesting he could be acquired for a 2nd is out of touch with reality.

[STL-TJG-1]

Is he done? Could he go somewhere and have a great season or two? Where? NYJ?

[Hottoddies]

Is he done? Could he go somewhere and have a great season or two? Where? NYJ?

Kansas City

[RB6]

Somewhere as the pass catcher in an RBBC at best is my guess. We will not see a great season again from him. Useful season possibly.

[FantasyFreak]

He may not get signed until after the draft, but I expect him to sign somewhere. His days of relevance are over, from a FF perspective, though, in all likelihood.

[abloom]

Yes can't see him being signed before the draft. Can see him being signed after the draft or in training camp when an injury occurs. Covid19 may make it a little tougher this year since otas are cancelled, and I'm guessing it will chew up some of training camp as well

[CGW]

He will probably sign somewhere, but like everyone is saying, he's done for fantasy.

[Jigga94]

Is he done? Could he go somewhere and have a great season or two? Where? NYJ?

Kansas City

That would be awesome and likely the only way I recoup value. Traded for him before he got hurt for the year (2018?) And then have been holding and waiting for something positive to happen. He's pretty much just a name at this point

[ericanadian]

He would need an outside zone to be anything more than a third down specialist. Not sure of what they’re running under Kingsbury, but Freeman would be a solid option in Arizona. Maybe he’s behind Drake, but I’m not sure I have a huge amount of faith in Drake’s durability or even that he’s a superior option to Freeman.

[Oblong_Ball]

Not sure of what they’re running under Kingsbury, but Freeman would be a solid option in Arizona. Maybe he’s behind Drake, but I’m not sure I have a huge amount of faith in Drake’s durability or even that he’s a superior option to Freeman.

What injury concerns do you have for Drake, hasn't had anything major since 2014 - https://sportsinjurypredictor.com/playe ... drake/7458

Drake is clearly the superior option to Devonta Freeman in 2020 and beyond, and it's not even close.

[ericanadian]

Not sure of what they’re running under Kingsbury, but Freeman would be a solid option in Arizona. Maybe he’s behind Drake, but I’m not sure I have a huge amount of faith in Drake’s durability or even that he’s a superior option to Freeman.

What injury concerns do you have for Drake, hasn't had anything major since 2014 - https://sportsinjurypredictor.com/playe ... drake/7458

Drake is clearly the superior option to Devonta Freeman in 2020 and beyond, and it's not even close.

It’s more just a lack of volume to date. He could be fine, but he’s never carried the load and at 6’1”, his 211 lbs is a little less than I’d like.

[Cameron Giles]

Probably looking at a committee situation. Again think we're looking at another RB whose best days are behind him.

[Vectorgod]

His days as a fantasy RB1 are definitely past, but I think he still has some relevance as a bye week/injury guy if he signs with a team that uses his pass catching ability. Probably not much more than a 3rd down specialist, maybe more in the event of injury. I'm bidding moderately on him in my salary cap league just in case. I'd like to see him in KC, Tampa, or maybe even in Green Bay.