Dynasty League Football Forum

stoneghost28 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 20, 2021 3:05 pm Really having some regrets about the 3 trades I made since last years rookie drafts to double my shares to 6/15. Darn it. Just think I'm priced out on Henderson, I won't pay the cost for a guy who might be a 1 year rental, and only has 2 more years left on his rookie deal anyway. Inclined to try and go after Cam, but no idea what a reasonable offer would be (I'm not of the mind to low ball people on offers, I try and start w/very close to best and final from the start, just the way I have to do it since I don't have a lot of time to begin with (five year old kiddo has boundless energy in this house lol). What would you guys say is a reasonable ask in terms of picks, or players? What ADP of a player (55-70? more like 40-55?), in terms of picks. A late 1st, a random 1st and a future 3rd, I have no idea especially with the somewhat ugly history of achilles injuries.

Trading for Cam right now is pretty much betting to hit on an inside straight when you know 2 of your money cards are already on the table. It’s throwing good money after bad. IMO of course.

There’s no reason Henderson doesn’t slide into that spot seamlessly. The Rams gave up additional draft capital to acquire him and he was more productive than Akers - and significantly better in some areas - when given the chance and not hurt last year.

honcho55 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 01, 2021 7:39 pm On Style of running = injury chance

I just can’t seem to get this part, personally. I remember this was a knock on AD in the 07 draft. He had his share, but did he have *more* than his share? I can think of some other examples, and I can think of guys who got the label of “knows when to avoid contact” and “knows how to slide off big hits” and “knows how to fall down” and they still got hurt too.

I think it’s much more random chance than anything, to the point where I don’t really try and predict it. I’m more reactionary for that: if a guy has a lot of major injuries I’m leery of them coming back.

Not knocking the thought process, just admitting that I can’t really use it. Anyone have some solid evidence to look at here?

So this is the DLF message boards equivalent of Joe Buck saying "This kicker has never missed a kick in the 4th quarter" then the kicker misses it. Poor Akers, feel awful.

I feel really really bad for this guy. I hate to speak in absolutes but there is no chance he comes back. Guy barely had any experience, is now missing a whole year of development, plays the most replaceable position in sports, and has possibly the worst lower body injury you can get. This is awful.

From a fantasy football perspective, just stay away. Sell now if you can. Dont bet on an anomaly.

Bronco Billy wrote: ↑Wed Jul 21, 2021 7:25 am Trading for Cam right now is pretty much betting to hit on an inside straight when you know 2 of your money cards are already on the table. It’s throwing good money after bad.

Patsfan86 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 21, 2021 7:44 amDont bet on an anomaly.

++ all this

Marlon Mack should be a good litmus test to see how a recently productive RB can return from an Achilles. The historical data from the position is ugly.

Orenthal Shames wrote: ↑Wed Jul 21, 2021 12:28 pm Marlon Mack should be a good litmus test to see how a recently productive RB can return from an Achilles. The historical data from the position is ugly.

To expand on this...
https://www.reddit.com/r/DynastyFF/comm ... _outcomes/

There has been zero RB's return to fantasy relevance after an Achilles. ZERO. None. Marlon Mack would be the outlier if he does (not to mention he's got an all-time stud in front of him) - this is Fantasy (gambling)... we never bet the outlier.

But wait, it gets better (worse). "All of those RB's were pretty bad already, though" I hear you say - yes, this is true. However, there's one on that list you might have (reasonably) forgotten about - Mikel LeShoure. His comp to Akers? Actually pretty reasonable. Promising Rookie season, young runner, solid build and BMI, good (but not hyper elite) SPARQ score. He was never the same.

Here's the hammer.
https://twitter.com/ETurnerFF_PT/status ... 9549368323

Went back and found a Lions forum post Mikel Leshoure injury in 2012. Lmk if any of these quotes look familiar.

“None of this data is specifically relevant to a 21-year-old rookie in the best shape of his life”

“No elite running back in recent memory has come back from a ruptured Achilles at full speed, because no elite running back has recently ruptured an Achilles.”

“Mikel Leshoure has every possible indicator pointing to success: youth, a light previous workload, no prior Achilles pain, and a long track record of determination to succeed.”

“perhaps Leshoure’s rare combination of size, speed, and agility has already doomed his tendons, but right now, the “facts” being used to eulogize Mikel Leshoure’s career simply don’t stand up to examination”

“a 23 year old will heal better and faster than a 30 year old. And two, an uninjured 30 year old RB will perform dramatically worse than an uninjured 28 year old RB. Leshoure has a much better chance than anyone in that study.”

“Let's remember that modern medicine is an improving graph line, not a flat one where past situations can be carried forward.”

“At best, I figured Leshoure would come back as a between the tackles plodder, good for 3 yards per carry and maybe a handful of TD's and be out of the league within a few years. For these reasons, I dropped him. “

“Since he was a highly touted rookie, people seem to value him optimistically. Reality says, however, that it is far more likely that he comes back and is a journeyman RB that will flash from time to time and we will hear stories his entire career about what if.”

Ouch.

I really hope he comes back healthy. I was lower on him than almost everybody, but he doesn't deserve to go out like this.

Well I sold for the best deal I could get. Gave Akers and got Gaskin and a 2023 2nd. Id rather not gamble on the risk.

mild wrote: ↑Wed Jul 21, 2021 3:58 pm
There has been zero RB's return to fantasy relevance after an Achilles. ZERO. None. Marlon Mack would be the outlier if he does (not to mention he's got an all-time stud in front of him) - this is Fantasy (gambling)... we never bet the outlier.

Imho that could be deemed incorrect.

Patrick Mahomes / Josh Allen
Christian McCaffrey / Arian Foster
DK Metcalf / Stefon Diggs
Darren Waller / Antonio Gates

each of those were outliers for various reasons & many of the recent ones were panned by a good majority of the community until they hit.

The key is not to avoid betting the outlier - the key is to bet on the outlier at a cost you can afford to bet on without losing all of your chips. IE you don't go all in

Will Cam Akers recover from the Achilles - hard to determine. Not saying he will or he won't. Apart from that list, Jonathan Stewart may or may not qualify (as he had achilles issues and a surgery back in 2010).

Simply saying that if a person believes Akers has a shot at rehabbing fully & re-gaining the touches he would have had - then they should consider buying him at a cost they feel they can afford to spend. What that price is - well that is up to each owner. My guess is most will see the recent trade(s) that go down this week and then use that as a baseline to aim a little lower (ie the closer to the season the more pressure on the Akers owner to determine if they want to sell or hold).

DLF_Mikeh gave quite solid advice in his instant reaction article - but it was geared (imo) more to the Akers owner.

If you're a person who doesnt own Akers then

1 - If you do not believe or dont like those risks then obviously I do not need to tell you to avoid buying. Nor am I recommend that anyone do so. Just that there is absolutely nothing wrong with ignoring consensus when you want to take a risk. As we like to joke here on the forums - Consensus told you at one point to draft Hakeem Butler. Consensus will tell you to avoid Cam Akers. Nothing wrong with either playing it safe, and folding or continuing your hand and seeing the outcome.

2 - If you're open to calculated risks, then explore at a cost you feel you can handle. IE make small bets.

3 - Make sure you know going in what your plan of action is. IE if you want to acquire to hold Akers til next year then maybe be patient. Once whomever is leading the Rams as their RB is producing, Akers value will obviously take another dip and their owner - especially if they are a team who wanted to contend - will likely want to move before the value keeps falling. IE manage your chips and spend at the right time.

4 - If you're a buy & flip type trader - then make sure you know what you want out of the deal. Do you want to send a 1st for Akers and a 2nd and then flip Akers for a producer in-season and use the 2nd for another? How will you get this done? IE know your league / fellow poker players.

5 - Above all, know the odds and remember the cost is sunk once you've bought regardless of outcome.

murphysxm wrote: ↑Wed Jul 21, 2021 4:05 pm I really hope he comes back healthy. I was lower on him than almost everybody, but he doesn't deserve to go out like this.

Well said.

Bot101 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 21, 2021 9:25 pm Well I sold for the best deal I could get. Gave Akers and got Gaskin and a 2023 2nd. Id rather not gamble on the risk.

I’d take that also. One year out, who knows how long until effective, if ever

Bot101 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 21, 2021 9:25 pm Well I sold for the best deal I could get. Gave Akers and got Gaskin and a 2023 2nd. Id rather not gamble on the risk.

Really like this deal, especially if 2023 is as good as people are saying it will be.

mild wrote: ↑Wed Jul 21, 2021 3:58 pm

Orenthal Shames wrote: ↑Wed Jul 21, 2021 12:28 pm Marlon Mack should be a good litmus test to see how a recently productive RB can return from an Achilles. The historical data from the position is ugly.

To expand on this...
https://www.reddit.com/r/DynastyFF/comm ... _outcomes/

There has been zero RB's return to fantasy relevance after an Achilles. ZERO. None. Marlon Mack would be the outlier if he does (not to mention he's got an all-time stud in front of him) - this is Fantasy (gambling)... we never bet the outlier.

But wait, it gets better (worse). "All of those RB's were pretty bad already, though" I hear you say - yes, this is true. However, there's one on that list you might have (reasonably) forgotten about - Mikel LeShoure. His comp to Akers? Actually pretty reasonable. Promising Rookie season, young runner, solid build and BMI, good (but not hyper elite) SPARQ score. He was never the same.

Here's the hammer.
https://twitter.com/ETurnerFF_PT/status ... 9549368323

Went back and found a Lions forum post Mikel Leshoure injury in 2012. Lmk if any of these quotes look familiar.

“None of this data is specifically relevant to a 21-year-old rookie in the best shape of his life”

“No elite running back in recent memory has come back from a ruptured Achilles at full speed, because no elite running back has recently ruptured an Achilles.”

“Mikel Leshoure has every possible indicator pointing to success: youth, a light previous workload, no prior Achilles pain, and a long track record of determination to succeed.”

“perhaps Leshoure’s rare combination of size, speed, and agility has already doomed his tendons, but right now, the “facts” being used to eulogize Mikel Leshoure’s career simply don’t stand up to examination”

“a 23 year old will heal better and faster than a 30 year old. And two, an uninjured 30 year old RB will perform dramatically worse than an uninjured 28 year old RB. Leshoure has a much better chance than anyone in that study.”

“Let's remember that modern medicine is an improving graph line, not a flat one where past situations can be carried forward.”

“At best, I figured Leshoure would come back as a between the tackles plodder, good for 3 yards per carry and maybe a handful of TD's and be out of the league within a few years. For these reasons, I dropped him. “

“Since he was a highly touted rookie, people seem to value him optimistically. Reality says, however, that it is far more likely that he comes back and is a journeyman RB that will flash from time to time and we will hear stories his entire career about what if.”

Ouch.

Mah Dood! Thanks for the expansion. I was too lazy to find the article link.

ArrylT wrote: ↑Wed Jul 21, 2021 10:52 pm

mild wrote: ↑Wed Jul 21, 2021 3:58 pm
There has been zero RB's return to fantasy relevance after an Achilles. ZERO. None. Marlon Mack would be the outlier if he does (not to mention he's got an all-time stud in front of him) - this is Fantasy (gambling)... we never bet the outlier.

Imho that could be deemed incorrect.

Mikel Leshoure posted 1000 total yards and 9 TDs a year after his Achilles. While it was very inefficient and he was out of the league a year later, it was technically fantasy relevant (ppr RB15 range).

I understand admitting the guy is done sucks for a lot of people. Its hard because you feel bad for the guy in real life, but its doubly hard because you invested in him. But the guy is done, i give him a 5% chance of being fantasy relevant and i feel like im being generous. Perhaps if he was going into his third year after already truly establishing himself id give him more of a shot. But the fact is he really never established himself, this backfield is anyones for the taking and if Henderson or whoever else takes over then Akers will not get the job back. Rams could also draft a new young stud next year. This isnt just about the achilles tear its about the timing of it and the situation surrounding him.