Cam Akers Official Thread

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Re: Cam Akers Official Thread

Postby Sriracha » Fri Jul 30, 2021 4:23 pm

FantasyFreak wrote: Thu Jul 29, 2021 8:56 pm
Sriracha wrote: Thu Jul 29, 2021 8:16 pm
Ruggenater wrote: Thu Jul 29, 2021 12:39 pm

Pretty much everything NFL/fantasy-related is small samples. We only have (had) 16 game seasons, which is a tiny sample size. There’s a reason analytics were developed earlier and are further along in baseball.

Say you assume the “real” chances of coming back and being effective after an Achilles injury is 50/50. Then your expectation for 11 cases is 5.5 successfully returning, and 5.5 failing to. The standard deviation assuming normal distribution and 11 trials is 1.66, putting 11 failures in 11 trials more than 3 standard deviations from the mean, which, despite small sample size, is fairly compelling evidence that it’s not 50/50. Simplified example/way of looking at this, yes, but there’s nothing to point to that shows betting on Akers to be a good bet.
Akers circumstance is not identical (or even similar) to all 11 of those players— most of which I’d venture to say had far worse than a 50/50 chance to bounce back in the NFL with or without the Achilles injury.
No 2 circumstances are identical, and I think the most similar one we can pin is Foreman. Day 2 pick, similar speed score, huge college production, tore his achilles at a similar age, and only a few years ago, so surgical procedures are relevant. However his outcome doesn't determine Akers outcome. I think there potential outcomes are interesting. I think Akers has a shot to be the first RB to be a relevant player after an achilles, beyond a year or two. Being a better prospect than most who have suffered the injury, combined with better medical treatment than those came before, I think he has a good shot at getting a 2nd contract in the NFL (and I sincerely hope he does). Being a lead back for multiple years in an NFL offense, and being a FF producer that people are trading multiple firsts for? I think the chances on that are slim to none.
For sure, my point is that for a sample size as low as 11 they'd have to be near identical situations to Akers for me to be comfortable pulling actionable info from it.

The closest one is probably either Mikel Leshour or D'onta Foreman but neither of them were as good of a prospect as Akers imo and neither of them showed out like Akers did at any point in their careers.

Foreman was a 3rd round pick with a very replaceable skillset (2 down grinder) and for what it's worth in his limited sample of work with TEN he looked to be completely back to his old self -- and his YPC going from 4.1 his rookie year to 4.2 with the Titans should attest to the fact that he didn't fall off of an athletic cliff... he just isn't a difference maker at the position.

For people that were down on Akers talent level and were only forced to accept his value as the lead back in McVay's offense I completely understand writing him off at this point -- but I'm obviously a believer in his talent level prior to the injury.

Akers has lost about 1/2 of his value imo due to losing a year in his prime and the uncertainty around his ability to comeback in the future or LAR's decision to possibly move on from him with a Shiny new toy in 2022.

Where we differ here is that I believe his floor has been lowered, not his ceiling; if he returns to near identical form in 2022 while proving to be a 3 down back I could easily see his value eclipsing multiple 1sts.

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Re: Cam Akers Official Thread

Postby FantasyFreak » Fri Jul 30, 2021 4:31 pm

Sriracha wrote: Fri Jul 30, 2021 4:23 pm
FantasyFreak wrote: Thu Jul 29, 2021 8:56 pm
Sriracha wrote: Thu Jul 29, 2021 8:16 pm

Akers circumstance is not identical (or even similar) to all 11 of those players— most of which I’d venture to say had far worse than a 50/50 chance to bounce back in the NFL with or without the Achilles injury.
No 2 circumstances are identical, and I think the most similar one we can pin is Foreman. Day 2 pick, similar speed score, huge college production, tore his achilles at a similar age, and only a few years ago, so surgical procedures are relevant. However his outcome doesn't determine Akers outcome. I think there potential outcomes are interesting. I think Akers has a shot to be the first RB to be a relevant player after an achilles, beyond a year or two. Being a better prospect than most who have suffered the injury, combined with better medical treatment than those came before, I think he has a good shot at getting a 2nd contract in the NFL (and I sincerely hope he does). Being a lead back for multiple years in an NFL offense, and being a FF producer that people are trading multiple firsts for? I think the chances on that are slim to none.
For sure, my point is that for a sample size as low as 11 they'd have to be near identical situations to Akers for me to be comfortable pulling actionable info from it.

The closest one is probably either Mikel Leshour or D'onta Foreman but neither of them were as good of a prospect as Akers imo and neither of them showed out like Akers did at any point in their careers.

Foreman was a 3rd round pick with a very replaceable skillset (2 down grinder) and for what it's worth in his limited sample of work with TEN he looked to be completely back to his old self -- and his YPC going from 4.1 his rookie year to 4.2 with the Titans should attest to the fact that he didn't fall off of an athletic cliff... he just isn't a difference maker at the position.

For people that were down on Akers talent level and were only forced to accept his value as the lead back in McVay's offense I completely understand writing him off at this point -- but I'm obviously a believer in his talent level prior to the injury.

Akers has lost about 1/2 of his value imo due to losing a year in his prime and the uncertainty around his ability to comeback in the future or LAR's decision to possibly move on from him with a Shiny new toy in 2022.

Where we differ here is that I believe his floor has been lowered, not his ceiling; if he returns to near identical form in 2022 while proving to be a 3 down back I could easily see his value eclipsing multiple 1sts.
Fair. FYI I was actively trying to acquire him in the off season. I have no interest now. I agree, his ceiling could be a bell cow in 2022, but we weren't even sure he was going to be that this year. It was assumed, and rightfully so. My feeling is, there is little chance that occurs now, in 2022, not that it's impossible. I may have used hyperbole at some point. I don't completely rule it out, but I think the chances are very, very low that it happens now.
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Re: Cam Akers Official Thread

Postby Sriracha » Fri Jul 30, 2021 4:56 pm

FantasyFreak wrote: Fri Jul 30, 2021 4:31 pm
Fair. FYI I was actively trying to acquire him in the off season. I have no interest now. I agree, his ceiling could be a bell cow in 2022, but we weren't even sure he was going to be that this year. It was assumed, and rightfully so. My feeling is, there is little chance that occurs now, in 2022, not that it's impossible. I may have used hyperbole at some point. I don't completely rule it out, but I think the chances are very, very low that it happens now.
I just don't agree that the we can say the chance is "very, very low that it happens" based on the available data. Is it lower? Sure, but I think we're jumping the gun based on limited data if we're dramatically lowering the chance he does it in 2022.

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Re: Cam Akers Official Thread

Postby FantasyFreak » Fri Jul 30, 2021 5:02 pm

Sriracha wrote: Fri Jul 30, 2021 4:56 pm
FantasyFreak wrote: Fri Jul 30, 2021 4:31 pm
Fair. FYI I was actively trying to acquire him in the off season. I have no interest now. I agree, his ceiling could be a bell cow in 2022, but we weren't even sure he was going to be that this year. It was assumed, and rightfully so. My feeling is, there is little chance that occurs now, in 2022, not that it's impossible. I may have used hyperbole at some point. I don't completely rule it out, but I think the chances are very, very low that it happens now.
I just don't agree that the we can say the chance is "very, very low that it happens" based on the available data. Is it lower? Sure, but I think we're jumping the gun based on limited data if we're dramatically lowering the chance he does it in 2022.
That's where we disagree, I guess. No worries. :thumbup:
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Re: Cam Akers Official Thread

Postby Sriracha » Fri Jul 30, 2021 5:06 pm

FantasyFreak wrote: Fri Jul 30, 2021 5:02 pm
Sriracha wrote: Fri Jul 30, 2021 4:56 pm
FantasyFreak wrote: Fri Jul 30, 2021 4:31 pm
Fair. FYI I was actively trying to acquire him in the off season. I have no interest now. I agree, his ceiling could be a bell cow in 2022, but we weren't even sure he was going to be that this year. It was assumed, and rightfully so. My feeling is, there is little chance that occurs now, in 2022, not that it's impossible. I may have used hyperbole at some point. I don't completely rule it out, but I think the chances are very, very low that it happens now.
I just don't agree that the we can say the chance is "very, very low that it happens" based on the available data. Is it lower? Sure, but I think we're jumping the gun based on limited data if we're dramatically lowering the chance he does it in 2022.
That's where we disagree, I guess. No worries. :thumbup:
:thumbup:

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Re: Cam Akers Official Thread

Postby Pullo Vision » Thu Oct 14, 2021 11:59 am

People have said Marlon Mack's recovery would be a good guide for Akers'. Week 5, Mack had 5 carries for 47 yards and 1 catch for 7.

With teams now reportedly considering trading for Mack, have your thoughts on Akers changed?
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Re: Cam Akers Official Thread

Postby Orenthal Shames » Thu Oct 14, 2021 12:30 pm

Pullo Vision wrote: Thu Oct 14, 2021 11:59 am People have said Marlon Mack's recovery would be a good guide for Akers'. Week 5, Mack had 5 carries for 47 yards and 1 catch for 7.

With teams now reportedly considering trading for Mack, have your thoughts on Akers changed?
Longevity and recurrent injuries are the concern for me. Def tuned into Mack going forward.
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Re: Cam Akers Official Thread

Postby dipANDglide » Sun Oct 17, 2021 1:06 pm

I’d sell low. He isn’t pushing Henderson to the sideline the way DH is performing. I’d sell for any 1st.

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Re: Cam Akers Official Thread

Postby Sriracha » Sun Oct 17, 2021 1:19 pm

dipANDglide wrote: Sun Oct 17, 2021 1:06 pm I’d sell low. He isn’t pushing Henderson to the sideline the way DH is performing. I’d sell for any 1st.
:lol:

Henderson is "the guy" this year given the current RB depthchart.

When Henderson missed time, it was all Michel who was similarly productive... and he still has not carved out a bigger role in the offense.

"RBBC McVay" is just a completely false narrative.

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Re: Cam Akers Official Thread

Postby gogobradyarm » Mon Oct 18, 2021 8:54 am

I was considerably down on Akers given the injury history at the position. That said, Mack has looked good enough for me to be hopeful. I would buy if I can acquire for a 2nd.
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Re: Cam Akers Official Thread

Postby FantasyFreak » Mon Oct 18, 2021 9:00 am

gogobradyarm wrote: Mon Oct 18, 2021 8:54 am I was considerably down on Akers given the injury history at the position. That said, Mack has looked good enough for me to be hopeful. I would buy if I can acquire for a 2nd.
I rostered Mack his entire career, and watched him more than most. He doesn't look like the same player to my eyes. He's definitely lost something to my eyes.
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Re: Cam Akers Official Thread

Postby FantasyFreak » Mon Oct 18, 2021 9:01 am

dipANDglide wrote: Sun Oct 17, 2021 1:06 pm I’d sell low. He isn’t pushing Henderson to the sideline the way DH is performing. I’d sell for any 1st.
The 3 down Bell Cow thing certainly looks to be a pipe dream, at this point. Not sure anyone would pay a first for Akers right now.
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Re: Cam Akers Official Thread

Postby FantasyFreak » Sun Oct 31, 2021 11:12 am

His value is dropping fast. Provided Henderson doesn't suffer a similar injury, Akers role is not going to be lead back of the Rams any time soon.
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Re: Cam Akers Official Thread

Postby Sriracha » Sun Oct 31, 2021 1:55 pm

FantasyFreak wrote: Sun Oct 31, 2021 11:12 am His value is dropping fast. Provided Henderson doesn't suffer a similar injury, Akers role is not going to be lead back of the Rams any time soon.
Huh?

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Re: Cam Akers Official Thread

Postby FantasyFreak » Sun Oct 31, 2021 1:57 pm

Sriracha wrote: Sun Oct 31, 2021 1:55 pm
FantasyFreak wrote: Sun Oct 31, 2021 11:12 am His value is dropping fast. Provided Henderson doesn't suffer a similar injury, Akers role is not going to be lead back of the Rams any time soon.
Huh?
Darrell Henderson is going to have a significant role in the Rams offense. The idea that Akers would come back and have a chance at being the lead back again, which some thought possible in the off season, because many didn't think much of Henderson, is all but gone, barring a major injury to Henderson. Many people were still wanting first plus, for him at that time. That's not happening at this point.
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