Cam Akers Official Thread

[gogobradyarm]

His range of outcomes is RB1 overall to RB100. This could be the biggest what-if in fantasy football history.
I think you absolutely have to hold. You will get nothing in return to help you this year and if he looks like his old self, you will regret it forever.
The first guy Cam Akers should call is Kevin Durant. I don't think there's ever been an athlete that has recovered that well from an Achilles injury quite like KD in a sport that requires even more athleticism.

Someone brought that up before and it ignores that Durant is an all-time great player and an outlier. Dominique Wilkins is as well.

It's going to be easier for players to play better in the MLB and the NBA after a tear, even though it still comes with a significant amount of difficulty to do so. This is what Durant was going up against history wise with NBA players and achilles tears: https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/kevin-d ... 06839.html

Basically a history of players who decline after the tear.

Here are the only comparables we have to NFL RBs:



Here's a longer thread on it:https://twitter.com/KentWeyrauch/status ... 9758093313

And…. ?

That’s a sample size of 11.

I do agree Akers is significantly riskier now… but I’m not going to run out to worst case scenario over a sample that small filled with players that were not in comparable situations..

To be fair, he put this data together. If you want to make an argument against it, put together a list of RB that recovered from an Achilles tear and went on to have probowl seasons.

I'll help you, such player doesn't exist. Cam Akers is going to be hot trash, and a forgotten player. Unfortunate, but true. Get anything while you can, because he is never coming back to produce as a fantasy RB1 or RB2.

[Cameron Giles]

His range of outcomes is RB1 overall to RB100. This could be the biggest what-if in fantasy football history.
I think you absolutely have to hold. You will get nothing in return to help you this year and if he looks like his old self, you will regret it forever.
The first guy Cam Akers should call is Kevin Durant. I don't think there's ever been an athlete that has recovered that well from an Achilles injury quite like KD in a sport that requires even more athleticism.

Someone brought that up before and it ignores that Durant is an all-time great player and an outlier. Dominique Wilkins is as well.

It's going to be easier for players to play better in the MLB and the NBA after a tear, even though it still comes with a significant amount of difficulty to do so. This is what Durant was going up against history wise with NBA players and achilles tears: https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/kevin-d ... 06839.html

Basically a history of players who decline after the tear.

Here are the only comparables we have to NFL RBs:



Here's a longer thread on it:https://twitter.com/KentWeyrauch/status ... 9758093313

And…. ?

That’s a sample size of 11.

I do agree Akers is significantly riskier now… but I’m not going to run out to worst case scenario over a sample that small filled with players that were not in comparable situations..

Achilles injuries in sports aren't very frequent to begin with, so of course the sample size will be somewhat small.

How isn't it comparable? Akers could've been in for a big year, but it's not like he's a proven commodity. Achilles injuries have a history in all sports of derailing careers outside of a few outliers. Could Akers become an outlier? Maybe, but it wouldn't be based on anything that you or I can actually point to:

78 Achilles tendon ruptures were identified in professional football players during the 2010-2015 NFL seasons. 58% of these injuries occurred during the preseason. Of those that suffered an Achilles tendon rupture, 26% did not ever return to play in the NFL. Players who did return to play in the NFL took an average of 9 months to recover after the date of injury. Across all positions, there was a net decrease in power ratings by 22% and a net decrease in approximate value by 23% over 3 years following player return after Achilles tendon rupture. Across all positions, running backs saw the biggest decrease in production with a 78% decrease over 3 years post-injury in both power ratings and approximate value.

https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10 ... 7354369728

[honcho55]

Briefly considered that now may be a nice buy low window on him, but I didn’t act on it, and looks like I won’t. Even after seeing that Russian gymnast bounce around on his freshly torn Achilles, and cringing every impact, it’s just too much risk for me. As people have pointed out, there just aren’t enough cases of success after blowing that particular tissue.

[Sriracha]

Someone brought that up before and it ignores that Durant is an all-time great player and an outlier. Dominique Wilkins is as well.

It's going to be easier for players to play better in the MLB and the NBA after a tear, even though it still comes with a significant amount of difficulty to do so. This is what Durant was going up against history wise with NBA players and achilles tears: https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/kevin-d ... 06839.html

Basically a history of players who decline after the tear.

Here are the only comparables we have to NFL RBs:



Here's a longer thread on it:https://twitter.com/KentWeyrauch/status ... 9758093313

And…. ?

That’s a sample size of 11.

I do agree Akers is significantly riskier now… but I’m not going to run out to worst case scenario over a sample that small filled with players that were not in comparable situations..

To be fair, he put this data together. If you want to make an argument against it, put together a list of RB that recovered from an Achilles tear and went on to have probowl seasons.

I'll help you, such player doesn't exist. Cam Akers is going to be hot trash, and a forgotten player. Unfortunate, but true. Get anything while you can, because he is never coming back to produce as a fantasy RB1 or RB2.

I'm not the one making absolutes.

Trying to make any definitive statements off of such a small sample size is nothing but anecdotal research masquerading as facts.

Neither of us know what's going to happen with Akers; but assuming he's toast because 11 players (most of which were aging out or were never good to begin with) is poor analysis.. and it's not like every player that's suffered an achilles rupture has lost their elite athleticism -- Demaryius Thomas injured it in 2011 and still came back a size/speed monster, and just this year Kene Nwangwu put out a pro day clinic after suffering an Achilles rupture his freshman year.

If you think it somehow affects NFL RBs in ways outside of limiting their athleticism, I guess we'll see if that speculative narrative holds true

[jenkins.math]

And…. ?

That’s a sample size of 11.

I do agree Akers is significantly riskier now… but I’m not going to run out to worst case scenario over a sample that small filled with players that were not in comparable situations..

To be fair, he put this data together. If you want to make an argument against it, put together a list of RB that recovered from an Achilles tear and went on to have probowl seasons.

I'll help you, such player doesn't exist. Cam Akers is going to be hot trash, and a forgotten player. Unfortunate, but true. Get anything while you can, because he is never coming back to produce as a fantasy RB1 or RB2.

I'm not the one making absolutes.

Trying to make any definitive statements off of such a small sample size is nothing but anecdotal research masquerading as facts.

Neither of us know what's going to happen with Akers; but assuming he's toast because 11 players (most of which were aging out or were never good to begin with) is poor analysis.. and it's not like every player that's suffered an achilles rupture has lost their elite athleticism -- Demaryius Thomas injured it in 2011 and still came back a size/speed monster, and just this year Kene Nwangwu put out a pro day clinic after suffering an Achilles rupture his freshman year.

If you think it somehow affects NFL RBs in ways outside of limiting their athleticism, I guess we'll see if that speculative narrative holds true

The first stage of grief is denial.

[Sriracha]

Achilles injuries in sports aren't very frequent to begin with, so of course the sample size will be somewhat small.

How isn't it comparable? Akers could've been in for a big year, but it's not like he's a proven commodity. Achilles injuries have a history in all sports of derailing careers outside of a few outliers. Could Akers become an outlier? Maybe, but it wouldn't be based on anything that you or I can actually point to:

78 Achilles tendon ruptures were identified in professional football players during the 2010-2015 NFL seasons. 58% of these injuries occurred during the preseason. Of those that suffered an Achilles tendon rupture, 26% did not ever return to play in the NFL. Players who did return to play in the NFL took an average of 9 months to recover after the date of injury. Across all positions, there was a net decrease in power ratings by 22% and a net decrease in approximate value by 23% over 3 years following player return after Achilles tendon rupture. Across all positions, running backs saw the biggest decrease in production with a 78% decrease over 3 years post-injury in both power ratings and approximate value.

https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10 ... 7354369728

I have no problem if you're pessimistic about Akers future prospects.. I object to this narrative that it's impossible that he returns to form because none of the 11 RBs in recent memory have done it.

I agree that he's a significantly riskier asset than he was prior to injuring his Achilles; but I'd like to address some reasons I don't put too much stock into your quoted study -- It's dated from 11 - 6 years ago. Achilles surgery (and medicine in general) has progressed quite a bit since then and even discounting medical advances in recent years RBs have the shortest shelf life of any position in sports. It makes sense that they'd suffer the most decrease in value over a 3 year period after the injury; especially since it's a largely replaceable position. Teams move on fast from average RBs that miss significant time -- it'd be interesting to see if we saw a similar decrease in value at the RB position for other serious injuries with a long recovery time (ACL).

[Cameron Giles]

Achilles injuries in sports aren't very frequent to begin with, so of course the sample size will be somewhat small.

How isn't it comparable? Akers could've been in for a big year, but it's not like he's a proven commodity. Achilles injuries have a history in all sports of derailing careers outside of a few outliers. Could Akers become an outlier? Maybe, but it wouldn't be based on anything that you or I can actually point to:

78 Achilles tendon ruptures were identified in professional football players during the 2010-2015 NFL seasons. 58% of these injuries occurred during the preseason. Of those that suffered an Achilles tendon rupture, 26% did not ever return to play in the NFL. Players who did return to play in the NFL took an average of 9 months to recover after the date of injury. Across all positions, there was a net decrease in power ratings by 22% and a net decrease in approximate value by 23% over 3 years following player return after Achilles tendon rupture. Across all positions, running backs saw the biggest decrease in production with a 78% decrease over 3 years post-injury in both power ratings and approximate value.

https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10 ... 7354369728

I have no problem if you're pessimistic about Akers future prospects.. I object to this narrative that it's impossible that he returns to form because none of the 11 RBs in recent memory have done it.

I agree that he's a significantly riskier asset than he was prior to injuring his Achilles; but I'd like to address some reasons I don't put too much stock into your quoted study -- It's dated from 11 - 6 years ago. Achilles surgery (and medicine in general) has progressed quite a bit since then and even discounting medical advances in recent years RBs have the shortest shelf life of any position in sports. It makes sense that they'd suffer the most decrease in value over a 3 year period after the injury; especially since it's a largely replaceable position. Teams move on fast from average RBs that miss significant time -- it'd be interesting to see if we saw a similar decrease in value at the RB position for other serious injuries with a long recovery time (ACL).

Impossible? No. There are outliers in each sport. Medicine has progressed, but Achilles injuries still derail careers at a high rate even recently. You'd rather hear that a player tore their ACL or something.

Those players are still the closest thing there is to a comparable. If Akers returns to form and goes on to have a really good career, there's nothing that any of us can look back and point to that would've foreshadowed it. It's basically dumb luck. The same would be true if Marlon Mack returns to form and becomes a 1000 yd RB again.

If you can take a chance on dumb luck for a cheap price, then I wouldn't object to it.

[Kurt G.O.A.T.]

mack should give us some answers this season. if he looks sprite then there's hope for akers.

haha, arian foster. wasn't he about 35 years old when he did his Achilles?

[Cameron Giles]

mack should give us some answers this season. if he looks sprite then there's hope for akers.

haha, arian foster. wasn't he about 35 years old when he did his Achilles?

He's the only RB on that list older than 25 at the time of the injury. So, it's largely a list of RBs with fresh legs in the age range where RBs typically have their most success.

[Kurt G.O.A.T.]

mack should give us some answers this season. if he looks sprite then there's hope for akers.

haha, arian foster. wasn't he about 35 years old when he did his Achilles?

He's the only RB on that list older than 25 at the time of the injury. So, it's largely a list of RBs with fresh legs in the age range where RBs typically have their most success.

yeah but it's not really a list of rbs who were ever going to dominate in the nfl. foreman could have but he didn't have the desire.

mack has the talent and desire to do it. will be interesting to see how he goes this year. didn't he get injured in week 1 last season? akers will have an extra couple of months to get back into shape.

[smbkrypt24]

mack should give us some answers this season. if he looks sprite then there's hope for akers.

haha, arian foster. wasn't he about 35 years old when he did his Achilles?

I have consistently seen that Mack should give proof of modern medicine on achilles injuries. I see a huge problem in that Mack will see very little carries this year as Taylor will see the majority of the carries and Hines receiving role. Mack will not see significant work so it will be very hard to see the impact. It will be easy to see if he is completely ineffective, but being able to tell if he is the same RB from when he would have lost his role to Taylor anyways will be hard to determine.

Comparing Mack to Akers is wrong. Akers was expected to be the lead back. Mack is definitely not.

[SoftwoodGrampian]

Take it from a two-time Achilles tearer!

You need more than a year to regain form. Should Mack return to near pre-injury form, it won’t happen in 2021. Will need to see him in 22.

Of course tho, I suck!

[Sriracha]

I have no problem if you're pessimistic about Akers future prospects.. I object to this narrative that it's impossible that he returns to form because none of the 11 RBs in recent memory have done it.

I agree that he's a significantly riskier asset than he was prior to injuring his Achilles; but I'd like to address some reasons I don't put too much stock into your quoted study -- It's dated from 11 - 6 years ago. Achilles surgery (and medicine in general) has progressed quite a bit since then and even discounting medical advances in recent years RBs have the shortest shelf life of any position in sports. It makes sense that they'd suffer the most decrease in value over a 3 year period after the injury; especially since it's a largely replaceable position. Teams move on fast from average RBs that miss significant time -- it'd be interesting to see if we saw a similar decrease in value at the RB position for other serious injuries with a long recovery time (ACL).

Impossible? No. There are outliers in each sport. Medicine has progressed, but Achilles injuries still derail careers at a high rate even recently. You'd rather hear that a player tore their ACL or something.

Those players are still the closest thing there is to a comparable. If Akers returns to form and goes on to have a really good career, there's nothing that any of us can look back and point to that would've foreshadowed it. It's basically dumb luck. The same would be true if Marlon Mack returns to form and becomes a 1000 yd RB again.

If you can take a chance on dumb luck for a cheap price, then I wouldn't object to it.

What I'm trying to get at here is that you really can't say that Akers would be an outlier if he returns to form because we do not have an established baseline due to low sample size.

Just because we have nothing to look back at and point to a successful recovery does not mean that Akers chances of returning to form are low; It means that we can't confidently forecast that he will.

Summarizing a successful Akers return as "dumb luck" is overly dramatic.

[Cameron Giles]

What I'm trying to get at here is that you really can't say that Akers would be an outlier if he returns to form because we do not have an established baseline due to low sample size.

Just because we have nothing to look back at and point to a successful recovery does not mean that Akers chances of returning to form are low; It means that we can't confidently forecast that he will.

Summarizing a successful Akers return as "dumb luck" is overly dramatic.

By definition, it would still be an outlier. Achilles injuries are not high volume injuries to begin with. It's not an ankle sprain or a hamstring pull. We likely won't even reach 50 or so RBs with torn Achilles for many, many years.

We not only look at the low volume for position, but the increased volume across the sport. And the larger sample shows a clear decline in value for players who tear their Achilles in the NFL.

If someone right now wanted to plant their flag and say that Akers will return from the Achilles injury, and still go on to be the player he was possibly on pace to being, it would purely be a hunch. There's nothing I can point at to even reach that conclusion.

[Ice]

The reality is there is a very good chance Akers returns just fine. Surgery techniques are much better then even a few years ago and rehab is as well.

It may take more than a year but that is more about how he rehabs.

Kevin Durant was out longer than a year but is back to being one of the best if not the best basketball player on the planet and his sport is probably way harder when consider the constant various movements required.

Dallas just signed Malik Hooker who just had surgery in November and is expected to compete for a starting job this season.

Going back 7-11 years to look at data when medical procedure techniques are doubling about every 7 years or so is not really realistic.

No doubt there is risk but it isn't like it once was in the recent past.

Time and Desire will matter a lot with Akers.

Additionally, Emmanuel Sanders tore an Achilles in December and was back with no issues the start of the following season. That was impressive.