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Re: Courtland Sutton?

Posted: Tue Apr 28, 2020 10:17 am
by Bronco Billy
Cameron Giles wrote:
Tue Apr 28, 2020 9:48 am
I hate to use this type of argument, but if projecting WRs were as simple as looking at BMI, then someone like Jeudy would've been dismissed a long time ago as a high-level WR prospect. I get that we do this for fantasy purposes, but at some point, the the roads of NFL value and fantasy value do run parallel. There's simply too much that goes into being a great WR to look at BMI as a predictor.
Projecting all WRs is clearly not that simple. Nobody is saying that a certain BMI is required for success or has matched each level of BMI to a correlated production level for all WRs. However, it seems foolhardy to simply dismiss what appears to be a red flag for a certain type of WR in the face of 20 years of data. That’s a completely different discussion than what you put forth above. Why would being too slight to deal with NFL CBs for a WR be any different than being too slow to get through NFL holes quickly enough for a RB? Again, inherently it passes the common sense smell test and has a lot of data supporting it with extremely few exceptions.

Re: Courtland Sutton?

Posted: Tue Apr 28, 2020 10:43 am
by Jigga94
I'm just going to throw this out there... BMI in itself is a pointless measurement. You're telling me you want a WR to be more "overweight" and closer to "obesity" with no consideration of fat/muscle ratio. We're arguing that guys that are a 25 or 26 have so much less chance of success than a guy with 27 (Sutton)? Lol c'mon man

Btw, 4 lbs more and Jeudy would be at 26 instead of 25.5. 4 lbs.......

Re: Courtland Sutton?

Posted: Tue Apr 28, 2020 10:45 am
by PR0v3
Jigga94 wrote:
Tue Apr 28, 2020 10:43 am
I'm just going to throw this out there... BMI in itself is a pointless measurement. You're telling me you want a WR to be more "overweight" and closer to "obesity" with no consideration of fat/muscle ratio. We're arguing that guys that are a 25 or 26 have so much less chance of success than a guy with 27 (Sutton)? Lol c'mon man
This.

Re: Courtland Sutton?

Posted: Tue Apr 28, 2020 10:57 am
by OhCruelestRanter
PR0v3 wrote:
Tue Apr 28, 2020 10:10 am
Agreed. Jeudy may need to be an outlier to overcome his BMI, but he certainly doesn't need to be an outlier if you look at his route running. You can't really just pick one aspect of a player's game and make a summary value assessment.

Ruggs is another one. People say he would be an extreme outlier if he hits based on his lack of DR, but would it really be all that surprising if a player with his size/speed/skill turned into a good player? Not to me. From that point of view, if he hits, he would only be an outlier in the sense that nobody in the league can do some of the things he does, which is something I would like to have stock in.
These are different things. The signal with BMI isn't nearly as strong as it is with dominator rating or break-out age, or draft capital for that matter. Being an outlier from a BMI perspective is of questionable to zero relevance. Being an outlier from a dominator rating or break-out age standpoint can be concerning, as would draft capital outliers. I'm considerably less concerned about Jeudy as a BMI outlier than I am about, say, Brandon Aiyuk as a breakout age outlier, or Tyler Johnson as a draft capital outlier. Plus, I'm not sure Jeudy is even really a true outlier, I think he's just on the lower end of the BMI spectrum. Marquise Brown is an outlier.

Ruggs' profile is interesting. His market share and age-adjusted production stats are bad, but he played with arguably the best group of collegiate WRs ever. He has elite speed, but the correlation between 40 time and NFL success is virtually non-existent. The biggest thing in Ruggs' favor is that he's a first round pick, but even that isn't that important; the correlation between PPR points and draft position is weaker than it is for QBs or RBs- about 0.14.

I'm inclined to keep him in the first round of rookie drafts, because I think it's easier to explain why his production was depressed than it is to explain why his draft capital doesn't matter. If I'm sitting there with Ruggs, Jefferson, and Reagor available, I'm probably trying to move back a spot or two to grab some extra value on top of them.

Re: Courtland Sutton?

Posted: Tue Apr 28, 2020 11:02 am
by Ice
Jigga94 wrote:
Tue Apr 28, 2020 10:43 am
I'm just going to throw this out there... BMI in itself is a pointless measurement. You're telling me you want a WR to be more "overweight" and closer to "obesity" with no consideration of fat/muscle ratio. We're arguing that guys that are a 25 or 26 have so much less chance of success than a guy with 27 (Sutton)? Lol c'mon man

Btw, 4 lbs more and Jeudy would be at 26 instead of 25.5. 4 lbs.......
For gods sake someone buy Jeudy a dozen doughnuts and a case of Boost.

Poor guy's pads will fall off before practice even starts! :biggrin:

Re: Courtland Sutton?

Posted: Tue Apr 28, 2020 3:13 pm
by Sriracha
Ice wrote:
Tue Apr 28, 2020 11:02 am
Jigga94 wrote:
Tue Apr 28, 2020 10:43 am
I'm just going to throw this out there... BMI in itself is a pointless measurement. You're telling me you want a WR to be more "overweight" and closer to "obesity" with no consideration of fat/muscle ratio. We're arguing that guys that are a 25 or 26 have so much less chance of success than a guy with 27 (Sutton)? Lol c'mon man

Btw, 4 lbs more and Jeudy would be at 26 instead of 25.5. 4 lbs.......
For gods sake someone buy Jeudy a dozen doughnuts and a case of Boost.

Poor guy's pads will fall off before practice even starts! :biggrin:
Not every player can gain weight (even 100% muscle) and remain the same top level athlete.

Jalen Reagor this year is a good example. Complete athletic specimen on film (clocks as fast as Tyreek Hill in game), gains 10 lbs of pure muscle to bulk up for the draft and his athletic measurements take a nose dive.

Re: Courtland Sutton?

Posted: Tue Apr 28, 2020 3:40 pm
by FantasyFreak
So anyway, what about that Courtland Sutton guy?

Re: Courtland Sutton?

Posted: Tue Apr 28, 2020 3:44 pm
by Sriracha
FantasyFreak wrote:
Tue Apr 28, 2020 3:40 pm
So anyway, what about that Courtland Sutton guy?
What about the DEN WR1 for the next 6 years? :lol:

Re: Courtland Sutton?

Posted: Tue Apr 28, 2020 6:17 pm
by flyersfan1981
FantasyFreak wrote:
Tue Apr 28, 2020 3:40 pm
So anyway, what about that Courtland Sutton guy?
Seriously...this went way off the rails...

That said...projections are just projections, but Ice's barometer of success for Jeudy is what 16-17 points consistently??? Sutton just had over 14 and we know all the headwinds he had last season that he overcame to get there. That offense should take a major step forward and part of that is Sutton taking a step forward as well. The idea that Sutton can't average ten more yards and one more catch going into his 3rd season with a better QB and a better offense...just seems illogical to me personally.

Re: Courtland Sutton?

Posted: Tue Apr 28, 2020 6:40 pm
by Sriracha
flyersfan1981 wrote:
Tue Apr 28, 2020 6:17 pm
FantasyFreak wrote:
Tue Apr 28, 2020 3:40 pm
So anyway, what about that Courtland Sutton guy?
Seriously...this went way off the rails...

That said...projections are just projections, but Ice's barometer of success for Jeudy is what 16-17 points consistently??? Sutton just had over 14 and we know all the headwinds he had last season that he overcame to get there. That offense should take a major step forward and part of that is Sutton taking a step forward as well. The idea that Sutton can't average ten more yards and one more catch going into his 3rd season with a better QB and a better offense...just seems illogical to me personally.
When you add to this that Sutton was a raw prospect that showed great coach-ability leading up to the draft this narrative makes even less sense.

He's made huge strides two seasons in a row.. no idea when he hits his ceiling, but anyone saying that Jeudy is the forgone conclusion to overtake him for the 1 spot on this offense is jumping the gun, quite a bit.

Jeudy dropped the most of any of the stud WR after the draft because of landing spot. Sutton, Jeudy, Hamler, Noah Fant, Albert O (my sleeper TE of the draft) is a lot of target competition to compete with.

I am higher on Lock than most, though.. so maybe he's still a strong fantasy play even if he can't overtake Sutton for the 1 spot