Courtland Sutton?

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Re: Courtland Sutton?

Postby Ice » Mon Apr 27, 2020 3:16 pm

Allen is a Legit WR1. He has had over 300 receptions the last 3 years. He is worth more than his perceived value IMO. He is a PPR machine due to superior route running.
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Re: Courtland Sutton?

Postby Jigga94 » Mon Apr 27, 2020 4:06 pm

joeday wrote:
Mon Apr 27, 2020 3:10 pm
Ice wrote:
Mon Apr 27, 2020 3:08 pm
Jigga94 wrote:
Mon Apr 27, 2020 3:01 pm


I think you're missing some of the points being made. You can believe that Sutton is not worthy of being WR11 overall (off the top of my head, I'd have him in the 15-20 range likely). You can also believe that this draft did not hurt his value... It doesn't have to be both. I think it might actually be a good thing for him to add some talent that does different things.

Truth is, when comparing prospects, Jeudy is much better. Could he bust? Unlikely, but yes. Would I trade Sutton for him STRAIGHT up? Probably not. Does not mean I don't think Jeudy has a higher ceiling.

Maybe I'm too low on Sutton... Who knows. I just see Alshon Jeffery in him and I never liked him much either
I don't disagree with ^ at all. I also see him as a solid WR2.

Guess the difference is that I would easily trade a WR2 for a WR1 upside play. That is a risk tolerance decision. IMO, there are many Marvin Jones types out there if I miss on a trade like getting Jeudy for Sutton.
So where do you guys put him? Say compared to Keenan Allen, for example?
In no order I have MT, Hopkins, Evans, Godwin, Adams, Moore, Keenan, Tyreek, Cooper, Odell, and AJ Brown ahead of him (11). Then I would likely also take Julio, Golladay, Juju, DK, Lamb and Jeudy (17 total) ahead of him depending on the team construction... So about 18th give or take. He's there with Ridley, Deebo, Kupp, etc
2QB, 2RB, 3WR, TE, FLEX - PPR - [b]14 Keepers[/b]
QB: Mahomes, J. Allen, Baker, D. Jones, Eason
RB: JT, Mostert, Gaskin, Dillon, Gus, Mattison, McFarland, Snell, Wilson, McKissic, Darrel
WR: Tyreek, DJM, Jeudy, Hollywood, Cooks, Mims, Hardman, Preston, Parris
TE: Andrews, Fant, Henry
2021: 1.10, 2, 3, 4, 5.08, 5.10, 6, 7, 9, 10

2QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, 3FLEX - PPR - [b]20 Keepers[/b]
QB: [b]Mahomes, Ryan,[/b] Minshew, Trubisky, Mariota
RB: [b]Saquon, Jacobs, Dobbins, Hunt,[/b] Penny, Snell
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TE: [b]Andrews, Henry, Gesicki, Tonyan,[/b] Irv
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Re: Courtland Sutton?

Postby FantasyFreak » Mon Apr 27, 2020 4:12 pm

Ice wrote:
Mon Apr 27, 2020 3:16 pm
Allen is a Legit WR1. He has had over 300 receptions the last 3 years. He is worth more than his perceived value IMO. He is a PPR machine due to superior route running.
....and QB play, and scheme and position/role within it.

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Re: Courtland Sutton?

Postby Ice » Mon Apr 27, 2020 4:16 pm

FantasyFreak wrote:
Mon Apr 27, 2020 4:12 pm
Ice wrote:
Mon Apr 27, 2020 3:16 pm
Allen is a Legit WR1. He has had over 300 receptions the last 3 years. He is worth more than his perceived value IMO. He is a PPR machine due to superior route running.
....and QB play, and scheme and position within it.
True, and we will soon see how QB proof Allen is. My take is he will do just fine with Taylor then Herbert. Both these guys can hit open WR's and Allen is always open it seems. Allen is the type that actually makes his QB's look good with his outstanding catch percentage.
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Re: Courtland Sutton?

Postby FantasyFreak » Mon Apr 27, 2020 4:27 pm

Ice wrote:
Mon Apr 27, 2020 4:16 pm
FantasyFreak wrote:
Mon Apr 27, 2020 4:12 pm
Ice wrote:
Mon Apr 27, 2020 3:16 pm
Allen is a Legit WR1. He has had over 300 receptions the last 3 years. He is worth more than his perceived value IMO. He is a PPR machine due to superior route running.
....and QB play, and scheme and position within it.
True, and we will soon see how QB proof Allen is. My take is he will do just fine with Taylor then Herbert. Both these guys can hit open WR's and Allen is always open it seems. Allen is the type that actually makes his QB's look good with his outstanding catch percentage.
He's a great route runner, don't get me wrong. It's just there are so many factors beyond that. Cooper is a great route runner and has never sniffed 100 receptions. He's used differently, in a different system, with a different QB. I was more adding to your point rather than disagreeing with it.

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Re: Courtland Sutton?

Postby Ice » Mon Apr 27, 2020 4:31 pm

FantasyFreak wrote:
Mon Apr 27, 2020 4:27 pm
Ice wrote:
Mon Apr 27, 2020 4:16 pm
FantasyFreak wrote:
Mon Apr 27, 2020 4:12 pm


....and QB play, and scheme and position within it.
True, and we will soon see how QB proof Allen is. My take is he will do just fine with Taylor then Herbert. Both these guys can hit open WR's and Allen is always open it seems. Allen is the type that actually makes his QB's look good with his outstanding catch percentage.
He's a great route runner, don't get me wrong. It's just there are so many factors beyond that. Cooper is a great route runner and has never sniffed 100 receptions. He's used differently, in a different system, with a different QB. I was more adding to your point rather than disagreeing with it.
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Re: Courtland Sutton?

Postby flyersfan1981 » Mon Apr 27, 2020 7:53 pm

Ice wrote:
Mon Apr 27, 2020 11:22 am
I would trade Sutton away for Jeudy in a heartbeat. These two are not close.

Sutton has WR2 upside in fantasy. Jeudy has elite WR1 upside due to vastly superior route running.

Can't imagine too many Fantasy football players saying with a straight face they would rather have Sutton.
Wow...Sutton just finished right around WR18 (PPR) in his 2nd season with a washed up Joe Flacco for most of the season. On a team that finished near the bottom for offensive plays. And he still had over 1,100 yards and you are saying his upside is WR2?

So you are basically saying that he just had the best season he will ever have in his career? And you don't find that statement insane???
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Re: Courtland Sutton?

Postby flyersfan1981 » Mon Apr 27, 2020 8:03 pm

Kmani6 wrote:
Mon Apr 27, 2020 1:38 pm
Agreed.

There are basically two points being argued in this thread. The first is if Sutton's value is affected. This is different from if his production is affected. The consensus around Sutton was that his talent matched his production, and that given the opportunity he would be able to take another jump and hit WR 1 numbers. No one was valuing Sutton that high and thinking they were getting ~WR 16 numbers for years. So, if you believe that his ceiling is now capped, or that he may only repeat his last year's season then you hold the same opinion that his value has actually gone down. The reasoning for this ceiling can be attributed too many different factors. Potentially, continued depressed TD rate by adding in MG3 who is a red-zone beast. Maybe adding Jeudy/Hamler depresses Sutton's target share. Most likely (in my opinion), the lack of Lock's production to support Sutton, Jeudy, Hamler, and Fant.

The second is if Jeudy is actually a better football player than Sutton. Jeudy is a better prospect than Sutton coming out. The supporting evidence is the draft capital, and college production. Ultimately, only time will tell who is actually better on the NFL level. My guess is Jeudy.
But since when does the better prospect guarantee a player to be the better pro? I mean let's be clear...Jeudy is the better prospect based on where he was drafted. But he was not a more productive player in college than Sutton. And Jeudy had guys throwing him the football that were both drafted in the first two rounds....nobody could even name who Sutton had in college.

And if you remember, Sutton actually hurt himself because he would have probably been a first rounder if he came out after his great junior year, but he decided to stay for one more year and had dreadful QB play which definitely hurt his draft stock.
#1-12 Team .5 PPR TE Premium (20-max)

Winston, Wentz
Ingram, Jones, Dalvin Cook, Rawls, Smallwood, McGuire
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#2-12 Team .5 PPR (25-max)

Rivers, Wilson
Gurley, JStew, West, Duke, Breida, Smallwood, Joe Williams
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Wentz, Trubisky, Cutler
Kamara, Ajayi, Howard, Lacy, Mack, Elijah McGuire, Sproles, Turbin
Hopkins, Alshon, Parker, Stills, Britt, ArDarius, P Cooper, TWilliams
Brate, Green, D Allen, Higbee, Hodges, Anderson
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Re: Courtland Sutton?

Postby Ice » Mon Apr 27, 2020 8:56 pm

flyersfan1981 wrote:
Mon Apr 27, 2020 7:53 pm
Ice wrote:
Mon Apr 27, 2020 11:22 am
I would trade Sutton away for Jeudy in a heartbeat. These two are not close.

Sutton has WR2 upside in fantasy. Jeudy has elite WR1 upside due to vastly superior route running.

Can't imagine too many Fantasy football players saying with a straight face they would rather have Sutton.
Wow...Sutton just finished right around WR18 (PPR) in his 2nd season with a washed up Joe Flacco for most of the season. On a team that finished near the bottom for offensive plays. And he still had over 1,100 yards and you are saying his upside is WR2?

So you are basically saying that he just had the best season he will ever have in his career? And you don't find that statement insane???
^
This is precisely why I and most players I know look at a player's PPG. Sutton does look like a high end WR at WR18 but in reality he was 28th in PPG. 27th if we throw out A. Brown's 1 game.

You make it sound like I don't like him which is wrong. I do like the player. My projections are basically he has a high floor low ceiling. I don't view him as a consistent 15.5 point play in fantasy. Therefore I see him as a solid WR2. He simply isn't explosive enough out of his breaks and doesn't have breakaway speed.

Jeudy has elite route traits. Some bring up he could bust which is a remote possibility but it is pretty unlikely to see a player with his route skill fail. Watch his routes then watch a few stars like D. Adams or a K. Allen type and I am sure you will see similarities in the routes run.

The potential to be upwards of 16 or 17 points per game is there. If achieved he will be a major stud. The ceiling is simply higher with Juedy, doesn't mean Sutton is bad.

BTW, Sutton averaged 12.4 PPG with Lock. His annual average was 13.901 PPG
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Re: Courtland Sutton?

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Mon Apr 27, 2020 10:04 pm

I haven't read all of this but one point which may be missing is Sutton entered the NFL having all the physical tools you want but somewhat of a blank slate as a WR (he always had good hands and catch technique but everything else was a work in progress), still flashed as a rookie and has improved exponentially as a player and leader on the field since then. I am just completely baffled as to why anyone would firmly believe that he can't and/or won't improve. Yet this has been a constant theme throughout his career. There were many people who were convinced Daeshawn Hamilton was better than Sutton and would out-produce Sutton last year... based on absolutely nothing! Yet they were convinced just the same. Jeudy is a different talent but I still have no idea what the doom and gloom for Sutton is based upon. If his upside is capped it's because of the run-heavy offense and total question mark at QB, not because of anything Sutton or Jeudy is or isn't doing, imo.

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Re: Courtland Sutton?

Postby Ice » Tue Apr 28, 2020 4:25 am

Exactly what is "Doom and Gloom" in a projection of 70 catches 1050 yards and 6 TD's?

Anyone see significantly better numbers this season than the above solid WR2 projection. Feel free to justify.
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Re: Courtland Sutton?

Postby FantasyFreak » Tue Apr 28, 2020 4:33 am

Ice wrote:
Mon Apr 27, 2020 8:56 pm
flyersfan1981 wrote:
Mon Apr 27, 2020 7:53 pm
Ice wrote:
Mon Apr 27, 2020 11:22 am
I would trade Sutton away for Jeudy in a heartbeat. These two are not close.

Sutton has WR2 upside in fantasy. Jeudy has elite WR1 upside due to vastly superior route running.

Can't imagine too many Fantasy football players saying with a straight face they would rather have Sutton.
Wow...Sutton just finished right around WR18 (PPR) in his 2nd season with a washed up Joe Flacco for most of the season. On a team that finished near the bottom for offensive plays. And he still had over 1,100 yards and you are saying his upside is WR2?

So you are basically saying that he just had the best season he will ever have in his career? And you don't find that statement insane???
^
This is precisely why I and most players I know look at a player's PPG. Sutton does look like a high end WR at WR18 but in reality he was 28th in PPG. 27th if we throw out A. Brown's 1 game.

You make it sound like I don't like him which is wrong. I do like the player. My projections are basically he has a high floor low ceiling. I don't view him as a consistent 15.5 point play in fantasy. Therefore I see him as a solid WR2. He simply isn't explosive enough out of his breaks and doesn't have breakaway speed.

Jeudy has elite route traits. Some bring up he could bust which is a remote possibility but it is pretty unlikely to see a player with his route skill fail. Watch his routes then watch a few stars like D. Adams or a K. Allen type and I am sure you will see similarities in the routes run.

The potential to be upwards of 16 or 17 points per game is there. If achieved he will be a major stud. The ceiling is simply higher with Juedy, doesn't mean Sutton is bad.

BTW, Sutton averaged 12.4 PPG with Lock. His annual average was 13.901 PPG
There's literally no evidence to support this. Pure opinion. I don't feel Sutton's ceiling is any lower. Doesn't mean Jeudy is bad. Completely different types of players.

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Re: Courtland Sutton?

Postby Ice » Tue Apr 28, 2020 4:43 am

FantasyFreak wrote:
Tue Apr 28, 2020 4:33 am
Ice wrote:
Mon Apr 27, 2020 8:56 pm
flyersfan1981 wrote:
Mon Apr 27, 2020 7:53 pm


Wow...Sutton just finished right around WR18 (PPR) in his 2nd season with a washed up Joe Flacco for most of the season. On a team that finished near the bottom for offensive plays. And he still had over 1,100 yards and you are saying his upside is WR2?

So you are basically saying that he just had the best season he will ever have in his career? And you don't find that statement insane???
^
This is precisely why I and most players I know look at a player's PPG. Sutton does look like a high end WR at WR18 but in reality he was 28th in PPG. 27th if we throw out A. Brown's 1 game.

You make it sound like I don't like him which is wrong. I do like the player. My projections are basically he has a high floor low ceiling. I don't view him as a consistent 15.5 point play in fantasy. Therefore I see him as a solid WR2. He simply isn't explosive enough out of his breaks and doesn't have breakaway speed.

Jeudy has elite route traits. Some bring up he could bust which is a remote possibility but it is pretty unlikely to see a player with his route skill fail. Watch his routes then watch a few stars like D. Adams or a K. Allen type and I am sure you will see similarities in the routes run.

The potential to be upwards of 16 or 17 points per game is there. If achieved he will be a major stud. The ceiling is simply higher with Juedy, doesn't mean Sutton is bad.

BTW, Sutton averaged 12.4 PPG with Lock. His annual average was 13.901 PPG
There's literally no evidence to support this. Pure opinion. I don't feel Sutton's ceiling is any lower.
Of course it is a projection which is an opinion but "come on man" you can't live in the dark on players. If you think a substandard route runner that is slower is better good for you.... I have no issues with that at all. Here is an award!. :thumbup:
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Re: Courtland Sutton?

Postby OhCruelestRanter » Tue Apr 28, 2020 5:02 am

FantasyFreak wrote:
Tue Apr 28, 2020 4:33 am
There's literally no evidence to support this. Pure opinion. I don't feel Sutton's ceiling is any lower. Doesn't mean Jeudy is bad. Completely different types of players.
I wouldn’t even bother- this will never get anywhere. You want to talk about “evidence” but that doesn’t matter even a small amount to the person you’re discussing this with.

He’ll just fall back on unprovable scouting thoughts, before he progressively gets angrier, ultimately calling you names and changing his signature to include you when he has nothing left.

It’s not even worth engaging, it just creates more conflict when we don’t need it.
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Re: Courtland Sutton?

Postby Ice » Tue Apr 28, 2020 5:04 am

OhCruelestRanter wrote:
Tue Apr 28, 2020 5:02 am
FantasyFreak wrote:
Tue Apr 28, 2020 4:33 am
There's literally no evidence to support this. Pure opinion. I don't feel Sutton's ceiling is any lower. Doesn't mean Jeudy is bad. Completely different types of players.
I wouldn’t even bother- this will never get anywhere. You want to talk about “evidence” but that doesn’t matter even a small amount to the person you’re discussing this with.

He’ll just fall back on unprovable scouting thoughts, before he progressively gets angrier, ultimately calling you names and changing his signature to include you when he has nothing left.

It’s not even worth engaging, it just creates more conflict when we don’t need it.
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