The Courtland Sutton Thread

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Bronco Billy
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Re: Courtland Sutton?

Postby Bronco Billy » Tue Apr 28, 2020 10:17 am

Cameron Giles wrote:
Tue Apr 28, 2020 9:48 am
I hate to use this type of argument, but if projecting WRs were as simple as looking at BMI, then someone like Jeudy would've been dismissed a long time ago as a high-level WR prospect. I get that we do this for fantasy purposes, but at some point, the the roads of NFL value and fantasy value do run parallel. There's simply too much that goes into being a great WR to look at BMI as a predictor.
Projecting all WRs is clearly not that simple. Nobody is saying that a certain BMI is required for success or has matched each level of BMI to a correlated production level for all WRs. However, it seems foolhardy to simply dismiss what appears to be a red flag for a certain type of WR in the face of 20 years of data. That’s a completely different discussion than what you put forth above. Why would being too slight to deal with NFL CBs for a WR be any different than being too slow to get through NFL holes quickly enough for a RB? Again, inherently it passes the common sense smell test and has a lot of data supporting it with extremely few exceptions.

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Re: Courtland Sutton?

Postby Jigga94 » Tue Apr 28, 2020 10:43 am

I'm just going to throw this out there... BMI in itself is a pointless measurement. You're telling me you want a WR to be more "overweight" and closer to "obesity" with no consideration of fat/muscle ratio. We're arguing that guys that are a 25 or 26 have so much less chance of success than a guy with 27 (Sutton)? Lol c'mon man

Btw, 4 lbs more and Jeudy would be at 26 instead of 25.5. 4 lbs.......
Last edited by Jigga94 on Tue Apr 28, 2020 10:46 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Courtland Sutton?

Postby PR0v3 » Tue Apr 28, 2020 10:45 am

Jigga94 wrote:
Tue Apr 28, 2020 10:43 am
I'm just going to throw this out there... BMI in itself is a pointless measurement. You're telling me you want a WR to be more "overweight" and closer to "obesity" with no consideration of fat/muscle ratio. We're arguing that guys that are a 25 or 26 have so much less chance of success than a guy with 27 (Sutton)? Lol c'mon man
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Re: Courtland Sutton?

Postby OhCruelestRanter » Tue Apr 28, 2020 10:57 am

PR0v3 wrote:
Tue Apr 28, 2020 10:10 am
Agreed. Jeudy may need to be an outlier to overcome his BMI, but he certainly doesn't need to be an outlier if you look at his route running. You can't really just pick one aspect of a player's game and make a summary value assessment.

Ruggs is another one. People say he would be an extreme outlier if he hits based on his lack of DR, but would it really be all that surprising if a player with his size/speed/skill turned into a good player? Not to me. From that point of view, if he hits, he would only be an outlier in the sense that nobody in the league can do some of the things he does, which is something I would like to have stock in.
These are different things. The signal with BMI isn't nearly as strong as it is with dominator rating or break-out age, or draft capital for that matter. Being an outlier from a BMI perspective is of questionable to zero relevance. Being an outlier from a dominator rating or break-out age standpoint can be concerning, as would draft capital outliers. I'm considerably less concerned about Jeudy as a BMI outlier than I am about, say, Brandon Aiyuk as a breakout age outlier, or Tyler Johnson as a draft capital outlier. Plus, I'm not sure Jeudy is even really a true outlier, I think he's just on the lower end of the BMI spectrum. Marquise Brown is an outlier.

Ruggs' profile is interesting. His market share and age-adjusted production stats are bad, but he played with arguably the best group of collegiate WRs ever. He has elite speed, but the correlation between 40 time and NFL success is virtually non-existent. The biggest thing in Ruggs' favor is that he's a first round pick, but even that isn't that important; the correlation between PPR points and draft position is weaker than it is for QBs or RBs- about 0.14.

I'm inclined to keep him in the first round of rookie drafts, because I think it's easier to explain why his production was depressed than it is to explain why his draft capital doesn't matter. If I'm sitting there with Ruggs, Jefferson, and Reagor available, I'm probably trying to move back a spot or two to grab some extra value on top of them.
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Re: Courtland Sutton?

Postby Ice » Tue Apr 28, 2020 11:02 am

Jigga94 wrote:
Tue Apr 28, 2020 10:43 am
I'm just going to throw this out there... BMI in itself is a pointless measurement. You're telling me you want a WR to be more "overweight" and closer to "obesity" with no consideration of fat/muscle ratio. We're arguing that guys that are a 25 or 26 have so much less chance of success than a guy with 27 (Sutton)? Lol c'mon man

Btw, 4 lbs more and Jeudy would be at 26 instead of 25.5. 4 lbs.......
For gods sake someone buy Jeudy a dozen doughnuts and a case of Boost.

Poor guy's pads will fall off before practice even starts! :biggrin:
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Re: Courtland Sutton?

Postby Sriracha » Tue Apr 28, 2020 3:13 pm

Ice wrote:
Tue Apr 28, 2020 11:02 am
Jigga94 wrote:
Tue Apr 28, 2020 10:43 am
I'm just going to throw this out there... BMI in itself is a pointless measurement. You're telling me you want a WR to be more "overweight" and closer to "obesity" with no consideration of fat/muscle ratio. We're arguing that guys that are a 25 or 26 have so much less chance of success than a guy with 27 (Sutton)? Lol c'mon man

Btw, 4 lbs more and Jeudy would be at 26 instead of 25.5. 4 lbs.......
For gods sake someone buy Jeudy a dozen doughnuts and a case of Boost.

Poor guy's pads will fall off before practice even starts! :biggrin:
Not every player can gain weight (even 100% muscle) and remain the same top level athlete.

Jalen Reagor this year is a good example. Complete athletic specimen on film (clocks as fast as Tyreek Hill in game), gains 10 lbs of pure muscle to bulk up for the draft and his athletic measurements take a nose dive.

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Re: Courtland Sutton?

Postby FantasyFreak » Tue Apr 28, 2020 3:40 pm

So anyway, what about that Courtland Sutton guy?
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Re: Courtland Sutton?

Postby Sriracha » Tue Apr 28, 2020 3:44 pm

FantasyFreak wrote:
Tue Apr 28, 2020 3:40 pm
So anyway, what about that Courtland Sutton guy?
What about the DEN WR1 for the next 6 years? :lol:

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Re: Courtland Sutton?

Postby flyersfan1981 » Tue Apr 28, 2020 6:17 pm

FantasyFreak wrote:
Tue Apr 28, 2020 3:40 pm
So anyway, what about that Courtland Sutton guy?
Seriously...this went way off the rails...

That said...projections are just projections, but Ice's barometer of success for Jeudy is what 16-17 points consistently??? Sutton just had over 14 and we know all the headwinds he had last season that he overcame to get there. That offense should take a major step forward and part of that is Sutton taking a step forward as well. The idea that Sutton can't average ten more yards and one more catch going into his 3rd season with a better QB and a better offense...just seems illogical to me personally.
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Re: Courtland Sutton?

Postby Sriracha » Tue Apr 28, 2020 6:40 pm

flyersfan1981 wrote:
Tue Apr 28, 2020 6:17 pm
FantasyFreak wrote:
Tue Apr 28, 2020 3:40 pm
So anyway, what about that Courtland Sutton guy?
Seriously...this went way off the rails...

That said...projections are just projections, but Ice's barometer of success for Jeudy is what 16-17 points consistently??? Sutton just had over 14 and we know all the headwinds he had last season that he overcame to get there. That offense should take a major step forward and part of that is Sutton taking a step forward as well. The idea that Sutton can't average ten more yards and one more catch going into his 3rd season with a better QB and a better offense...just seems illogical to me personally.
When you add to this that Sutton was a raw prospect that showed great coach-ability leading up to the draft this narrative makes even less sense.

He's made huge strides two seasons in a row.. no idea when he hits his ceiling, but anyone saying that Jeudy is the forgone conclusion to overtake him for the 1 spot on this offense is jumping the gun, quite a bit.

Jeudy dropped the most of any of the stud WR after the draft because of landing spot. Sutton, Jeudy, Hamler, Noah Fant, Albert O (my sleeper TE of the draft) is a lot of target competition to compete with.

I am higher on Lock than most, though.. so maybe he's still a strong fantasy play even if he can't overtake Sutton for the 1 spot

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If Broncos take a QB, Jeudy + Sutton value?

Postby austing » Fri Apr 23, 2021 5:50 pm

I acquired Jeudy and Sutton for pennies (relatively) last year in the hopes of the Broncos taking a QB. What do you think the ceiling is for these guys if they get any of the top five QBs? Also do some QBs increase their value more than others? Should they be solid holds or should I think of flipping one before or after the draft for other usable pieces in my signature team? Been a while since I've posted and I've always tried to heed the advice I get here, much appreciated guys.
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Re: If Broncos take a QB, Jeudy + Sutton value?

Postby honcho55 » Fri Apr 23, 2021 6:15 pm

Hard to give em a big bump in my book. I’m a believer in both, and I’d wager whoever has em in other leagues is in a similar boat: their valuation already includes the idea that an improvement at QB is probably coming. Nice work grabbing em cheap, I have not been able to get either in leagues I don’t have em.

I think it might even be a good time to sell, if a rookie QB comes in and someone perceives that as a big boost.
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Re: If Broncos take a QB, Jeudy + Sutton value?

Postby broncohead » Fri Apr 23, 2021 7:52 pm

Not sure if Fields or Lance would be much of an improvement (if at all) over Lock. At least in terms of FF/statistically.
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Re: If Broncos take a QB, Jeudy + Sutton value?

Postby mild » Fri Apr 23, 2021 9:50 pm

broncohead wrote:
Fri Apr 23, 2021 7:52 pm
Not sure if Fields or Lance would be much of an improvement (if at all) over Lock. At least in terms of FF/statistically.
This is an insane take.

Fields would be a massive improvement, in both contexts - and especially as a standalone fantasy piece. You are talking about Drew Lock: by many, many metrics one of the worst QB's in the league. Fields would be a must-have for late round QB fliers in 1QB redraft, and the QB2 with a bullet in Superflex rookie drafts. Zero question.

Don't forget: a 4.44 40-yard at 6"3 227 lbs would arguably make Fields the RB1 of this class athletically. Only RG3 has measured faster (4.41). He is the most likely of any of these QB's to take off and run, Lamar style. QB's that can rush on 3rd down to keep their offenses on the field is the new meta, and staying on the field in a game creates more opportunities (ie attempts) for the rest of the offense to score. A rising tide lifts all ships.

Now you're telling me that he would have (one of) the best pass-catching corps in the league, plus a capable pass catching RB in Melvin Gordon? You're spelling out spiked weeks for Fields, my friend. He would be a fantasy rock-star.

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Re: If Broncos take a QB, Jeudy + Sutton value?

Postby austing » Sat Apr 24, 2021 5:08 pm

mild wrote:
Fri Apr 23, 2021 9:50 pm
broncohead wrote:
Fri Apr 23, 2021 7:52 pm
Not sure if Fields or Lance would be much of an improvement (if at all) over Lock. At least in terms of FF/statistically.
This is an insane take.

Fields would be a massive improvement, in both contexts - and especially as a standalone fantasy piece. You are talking about Drew Lock: by many, many metrics one of the worst QB's in the league. Fields would be a must-have for late round QB fliers in 1QB redraft, and the QB2 with a bullet in Superflex rookie drafts. Zero question.

Don't forget: a 4.44 40-yard at 6"3 227 lbs would arguably make Fields the RB1 of this class athletically. Only RG3 has measured faster (4.41). He is the most likely of any of these QB's to take off and run, Lamar style. QB's that can rush on 3rd down to keep their offenses on the field is the new meta, and staying on the field in a game creates more opportunities (ie attempts) for the rest of the offense to score. A rising tide lifts all ships.

Now you're telling me that he would have (one of) the best pass-catching corps in the league, plus a capable pass catching RB in Melvin Gordon? You're spelling out spiked weeks for Fields, my friend. He would be a fantasy rock-star.
I think he was talking about the improvement to Jeudy and Sutton not being much (fantasy points wise) over what lock provides at least in year one. Perhaps cam newton style ideas of stolen red zone attempts for skill players and better for himself than others fantasy style play is what he was getting at. Still, I'm with you that fields accuracy alone, on top of extending drives is enough to put him above lock in terms of how much it helps my two receivers. How much above I have no idea..
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