Courtland Sutton?

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Bronco Billy
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Re: Courtland Sutton?

Postby Bronco Billy » Tue Apr 28, 2020 5:24 am

Ice wrote:
Tue Apr 28, 2020 4:43 am

Of course it is a projection which is an opinion but "come on man" you can't live in the dark on players. If you think a substandard route runner that is slower is better good for you.... I have no issues with that at all. Here is an award!. :thumbup:
https://media.makeameme.org/created/cap ... 5bd0ce.jpg
You claimed earlier not to have a dog in this hunt, yet you are 100% invested in this topic and repeatedly declaim any possible rebuttals or alternatives to your position with absoluteness. What’s going on with this?

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Re: Courtland Sutton?

Postby Ice » Tue Apr 28, 2020 5:43 am

Bronco Billy wrote:
Tue Apr 28, 2020 5:24 am
Ice wrote:
Tue Apr 28, 2020 4:43 am

Of course it is a projection which is an opinion but "come on man" you can't live in the dark on players. If you think a substandard route runner that is slower is better good for you.... I have no issues with that at all. Here is an award!. :thumbup:
https://media.makeameme.org/created/cap ... 5bd0ce.jpg
You claimed earlier not to have a dog in this hunt, yet you are 100% invested in this topic and repeatedly declaim any possible rebuttals or alternatives to your position with absoluteness. What’s going on with this?
First of all;

Fantasy Freak and I play in a league together, message off line on a whole host of topics, and banter often. He is also one of the best FF players on this site. Secondly, I have no issue with a position that Sutton is as good Jeudy and have said as much. I certainly don't think this will prove true though.

As far as player projections go, you bet I am invested in that. What I haven't heard from you or anyone is actually putting projections out there on players.

I provided projections on Sutton. I also put it out there that Jeudy is a better prospect with legit WR1 upside. Neither of these are groundbreaking but it is interesting to see the love for Sutton.

What will ultimately pan out IMO is Sutton will be to Juedy what Gallup has been to Cooper. Doesn't mean I don't like Sutton but it obvious a few are portraying it that way.
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Re: Courtland Sutton?

Postby Bronco Billy » Tue Apr 28, 2020 8:01 am

Well, here’s some food for thought for you. Jeudy is extremely light for his height. His BMI is below the 10th percentile for WRs who finished as a WR3 or higher over the last 20 years. Chad Johnson is the only WR whose BMI fell below the 10th percentile for WR3+ and still finished with a WR1 season in that 20 years worth of data.

https://www.dynastynerds.com/historical ... -receiver/

That would make Jeudy a significant outlier to become a WR3, much less to manage even 1 WR1 season in his career. Just a little food for thought. Really skinny WRs struggle at the NFL level, which inherently makes perfect sense.

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Re: Courtland Sutton?

Postby Ice » Tue Apr 28, 2020 8:47 am

Bronco Billy wrote:
Tue Apr 28, 2020 8:01 am
Well, here’s some food for thought for you. Jeudy is extremely light for his height. His BMI is below the 10th percentile for WRs who finished as a WR3 or higher over the last 20 years. Chad Johnson is the only WR whose BMI fell below the 10th percentile for WR3+ and still finished with a WR1 season in that 20 years worth of data.

https://www.dynastynerds.com/historical ... -receiver/

That would make Jeudy a significant outlier to become a WR3, much less to manage even 1 WR1 season in his career. Just a little food for thought. Really skinny WRs struggle at the NFL level, which inherently makes perfect sense.
Pretty interesting but not sure I really buy BMI as a critical measurement for a WR. I will study this in more detail. Thanks

A coupe of reasons I am somewhat skeptical.

1) I think Medically speaking, but I could be wrong, a BMI at 25 or above is getting into the overweight range. Obviously, Muscle is heavy so I would think BMI would be higher in toned athletes but not really sure what is truly a relevant number given the variables. Do you know this?

2) Players also have a tendency to gain weight and muscle mass once they turn professional when nutrition and weight training is a full time function of the career in football. It is much different than College. and this will change BMI.

#2 is one reason, for me anyway, that I study so much film and rely more on my eyes within routes as opposed to gross stats. I have no doubt players get stronger as they age to a point. A college WR rarely is close to a finished product.

Not saying measurable traits are not important, they are, and will analyze the article but BMI seems just another tool in the tool box.

One thing that seems certain, just looking at the landscape, WR's are trending back to smaller quicker in today's NFL. I doubt the average height is even 6'1" any longer. If true then BMI numbers may shrink a bit.

I am much more of a speed, vertical, and broad jump guy with WR's. If they have small hands I really focus on how they catch because I am somewhat prejudice when it comes to hand size.
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Re: Courtland Sutton?

Postby Bronco Billy » Tue Apr 28, 2020 9:13 am

Ice wrote:
Tue Apr 28, 2020 8:47 am
Bronco Billy wrote:
Tue Apr 28, 2020 8:01 am
Well, here’s some food for thought for you. Jeudy is extremely light for his height. His BMI is below the 10th percentile for WRs who finished as a WR3 or higher over the last 20 years. Chad Johnson is the only WR whose BMI fell below the 10th percentile for WR3+ and still finished with a WR1 season in that 20 years worth of data.

https://www.dynastynerds.com/historical ... -receiver/

That would make Jeudy a significant outlier to become a WR3, much less to manage even 1 WR1 season in his career. Just a little food for thought. Really skinny WRs struggle at the NFL level, which inherently makes perfect sense.
Pretty interesting but not sure I really buy BMI as a critical measurement for a WR. I will study this in more detail. Thanks

A coupe of reasons I am somewhat skeptical.

1) I think Medically speaking, but I could be wrong, a BMI at 25 or above is getting into the overweight range. Obviously, Muscle is heavy so I would think BMI would be higher in toned athletes but not really sure what is truly a relevant number given the variables. Do you know this?

2) Players also have a tendency to gain weight and muscle mass once they turn professional when nutrition and weight training is a full time function of the career in football. It is much different than College. and this will change BMI.

#2 is one reason, for me anyway, that I study so much film and rely more on my eyes within routes as opposed to gross stats. I have no doubt players get stronger as they age to a point. A college WR rarely is close to a finished product.

Not saying measurable traits are not important, they are, and will analyze the article but BMI seems just another tool in the tool box.

One thing that seems certain, just looking at the landscape, WR's are trending back to smaller quicker in today's NFL. I doubt the average height is even 6'1" any longer. If true then BMI numbers may shrink a bit.

I am much more of a speed, vertical, and broad jump guy with WR's. If they have small hands I really focus on how they catch because I am somewhat prejudice when it comes to hand size.
I absolutely consider BMI worth considering, though it is hardly a primary factor, unless it is a situation like this where it would below such a threshold, much like a WR being below the 10th percentile for SPARQ scores.

WRs in college are often matched up against guys who will not make a living playing CB. I’d guess a lot of college CBs are WRs who can’t catch or can’t comprehend offensive schemes. But in the NFL the CBs are guys who have always been CBs and went through their college careers knowing that they would always be CBs. I’d guess that even mediocre NFL CBs are better than 98+% of the college CBs. Pro CBs may not match some WRs in stature, but they make up for that in speed, strength, reaction time, and aggressiveness. It’s part of the reason WRs take a while to break out - among other nuances at the NFL level, they aren’t prepared mentally or physically to beat pro CBs.

Really slight WRs struggle more to get off the line or can get moved off their routes easier, or run into the boundary because pro CBs are so much stronger. That is absolutely one of the knocks on Jeudy - how will he handle the physicality of the pros and can he win in 50/50 or handfight situations? And how much weight can he gain and not have it negatively affect his play?

As to BMI and the threshold for obesity, that’s an odd comment. I can offer that I carried just over 6% body fat when I played in college and my BMI put me right at the overweight category. The obesity measure using BMI does not transfer well to athletes because of exactly what you said - an equivalent volume of muscle is more dense and weighs more than fat.

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Re: Courtland Sutton?

Postby Cameron Giles » Tue Apr 28, 2020 9:16 am

Bronco Billy wrote:
Tue Apr 28, 2020 8:01 am
Well, here’s some food for thought for you. Jeudy is extremely light for his height. His BMI is below the 10th percentile for WRs who finished as a WR3 or higher over the last 20 years. Chad Johnson is the only WR whose BMI fell below the 10th percentile for WR3+ and still finished with a WR1 season in that 20 years worth of data.

https://www.dynastynerds.com/historical ... -receiver/

That would make Jeudy a significant outlier to become a WR3, much less to manage even 1 WR1 season in his career. Just a little food for thought. Really skinny WRs struggle at the NFL level, which inherently makes perfect sense.
There's just no way you can boil down everything that goes into the WR position to BMI and expect a great conclusion. It's a small piece of the pie.

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Re: Courtland Sutton?

Postby Bronco Billy » Tue Apr 28, 2020 9:23 am

Cameron Giles wrote:
Tue Apr 28, 2020 9:16 am
Bronco Billy wrote:
Tue Apr 28, 2020 8:01 am
Well, here’s some food for thought for you. Jeudy is extremely light for his height. His BMI is below the 10th percentile for WRs who finished as a WR3 or higher over the last 20 years. Chad Johnson is the only WR whose BMI fell below the 10th percentile for WR3+ and still finished with a WR1 season in that 20 years worth of data.

https://www.dynastynerds.com/historical ... -receiver/

That would make Jeudy a significant outlier to become a WR3, much less to manage even 1 WR1 season in his career. Just a little food for thought. Really skinny WRs struggle at the NFL level, which inherently makes perfect sense.
There's just no way you can boil down everything that goes into the WR position to BMI and expect a great conclusion. It's a small piece of the pie.
Hence using the term “outlier”. But he’s below what appears to be a very significant threshold for predicting performance. Just like a RB who runs a 4.70 40. It ought to have greater significance when a player reaches or exceeds one of those remote thresholds, IMO. Interestingly, Ruggs is even worse than Jeudy in regard to BMI and Lamb is not too much better. It would be historically very long odds to see one of them succeed, much less two if them or all 3. Doesn’t mean it can’t happen, but it seems to be pretty worthy of discussion and some healthy consideration.

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Re: Courtland Sutton?

Postby Ice » Tue Apr 28, 2020 9:29 am

Do you find it interesting though that the first 3 WR's had extremely close BMI's?

Perhaps today's NFL like that 25 point range. It stands to reason if the league is moving towards speed and quickness then BMI may marginally drop.

I am trying to see the overall significance given we are dealing in tenths and hundredths of percentage points.

I agree Juedy will have to do better against press even though I wouldn't consider that a weakness of his but one reason he played so much slot I guess and Ruggs played outside. Ruggs destroys press most of the time.

IMO beating press is more about 1st step foot quickness but hands are important.
Last edited by Ice on Tue Apr 28, 2020 9:32 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Courtland Sutton?

Postby TimeWillTell » Tue Apr 28, 2020 9:31 am

Bronco Billy wrote:
Tue Apr 28, 2020 9:23 am
Cameron Giles wrote:
Tue Apr 28, 2020 9:16 am
Bronco Billy wrote:
Tue Apr 28, 2020 8:01 am
Well, here’s some food for thought for you. Jeudy is extremely light for his height. His BMI is below the 10th percentile for WRs who finished as a WR3 or higher over the last 20 years. Chad Johnson is the only WR whose BMI fell below the 10th percentile for WR3+ and still finished with a WR1 season in that 20 years worth of data.

https://www.dynastynerds.com/historical ... -receiver/

That would make Jeudy a significant outlier to become a WR3, much less to manage even 1 WR1 season in his career. Just a little food for thought. Really skinny WRs struggle at the NFL level, which inherently makes perfect sense.
There's just no way you can boil down everything that goes into the WR position to BMI and expect a great conclusion. It's a small piece of the pie.
Hence using the term “outlier”. But he’s below what appears to be a very significant threshold for predicting performance. Just like a RB who runs a 4.70 40. It ought to have greater significance when a player reaches or exceeds one of those remote thresholds, IMO. Interestingly, Ruggs is even worse than Jeudy in regard to BMI and Lamb is not too much better. It would be historically very long odds to see one of them succeed, much less two if them or all 3. Doesn’t mean it can’t happen, but it seems to be pretty worthy of discussion and some healthy consideration.
Like everything, needs to be considered in the context. I have also seen the BMI data and it does concern me as it pertains to Lamb/Jeudy/Ruggs, but I am not sure how to apply/weight it in my decision making. There have been plenty of adequate BMI guys fail as well. And that article doesn't give me enough information regarding total athletes/round drafted/etc, but I would assume a larger number of total prospects fall into the "adequate" BMI range than under weight as most athletes have a decent bulk to them (as said, muscle more dense than fat).
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Re: Courtland Sutton?

Postby PR0v3 » Tue Apr 28, 2020 9:47 am

I am really starting to hate this trend of picking one single stat/measurement/attribute and using it to claim that a player would be a major outlier if they hit because of it.
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Re: Courtland Sutton?

Postby Cameron Giles » Tue Apr 28, 2020 9:48 am

Bronco Billy wrote:
Tue Apr 28, 2020 9:23 am
Hence using the term “outlier”. But he’s below what appears to be a very significant threshold for predicting performance. Just like a RB who runs a 4.70 40. It ought to have greater significance when a player reaches or exceeds one of those remote thresholds, IMO. Interestingly, Ruggs is even worse than Jeudy in regard to BMI and Lamb is not too much better. It would be historically very long odds to see one of them succeed, much less two if them or all 3. Doesn’t mean it can’t happen, but it seems to be pretty worthy of discussion and some healthy consideration.
It's not like that at all. RB is a much, much easier position to evaluate than WR, because most of their success depends on the group up front. You can disregard slow RBs pretty easily and be spot on. The NFL does it all the time.

I hate to use this type of argument, but if projecting WRs were as simple as looking at BMI, then someone like Jeudy would've been dismissed a long time ago as a high-level WR prospect. I get that we do this for fantasy purposes, but at some point, the the roads of NFL value and fantasy value do run parallel. There's simply too much that goes into being a great WR to look at BMI as a predictor.

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Re: Courtland Sutton?

Postby Cameron Giles » Tue Apr 28, 2020 9:53 am

PR0v3 wrote:
Tue Apr 28, 2020 9:47 am
I am really starting to hate this trend of picking one single stat/measurement/attribute and using it to claim that a player would be a major outlier if they hit because of it.
Exactly!

And it's missing the conclusion:

"These measurements and the resulting research should not be viewed as the be-all, end-all metric for football player evaluation. A sub-25th percentile Hand Size is not a nail in the coffin; it should, however, like all metrics, be taken in stride with a player’s athletic profile as a whole. If a data point in a player’s profile stands out as a flag, consideration for other facets of a player’s profile–such as athletic or in-game performance–should be prioritized."

It's just not that easy.

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Re: Courtland Sutton?

Postby OhCruelestRanter » Tue Apr 28, 2020 9:56 am

This guy inevitably resorts to name calling
*immediately resorts to name calling*
The BMI issue is interesting. Lamb, Ruggs, and Jeudy are all guys with lower BMIs than we’re used to seeing from dynasty WR1s. Of course, Ruggs is above that 26.0 threshold.

Here’s the thing- BMI data so offer offers a really weak correlation with sustained NFL success. I think it’s enough to be genuinely concerned about a prospect like Hollywood Brown, who’s tiny and truly and outlier, and even then it’s only apart of a puzzle (I have multiple shares of Brown). With guys like Jeudy, Lamb, and Ruggs, it’s more just something to consider when you’re building your roster and trying to figure out exactly who these guys will be long term.
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Re: Courtland Sutton?

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Tue Apr 28, 2020 10:01 am

Marvin Harrison also BMI 25.21

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Re: Courtland Sutton?

Postby PR0v3 » Tue Apr 28, 2020 10:10 am

Cameron Giles wrote:
Tue Apr 28, 2020 9:53 am
PR0v3 wrote:
Tue Apr 28, 2020 9:47 am
I am really starting to hate this trend of picking one single stat/measurement/attribute and using it to claim that a player would be a major outlier if they hit because of it.
Exactly!

And it's missing the conclusion:

"These measurements and the resulting research should not be viewed as the be-all, end-all metric for football player evaluation. A sub-25th percentile Hand Size is not a nail in the coffin; it should, however, like all metrics, be taken in stride with a player’s athletic profile as a whole. If a data point in a player’s profile stands out as a flag, consideration for other facets of a player’s profile–such as athletic or in-game performance–should be prioritized."

It's just not that easy.
Agreed. Jeudy may need to be an outlier to overcome his BMI, but he certainly doesn't need to be an outlier if you look at his route running. You can't really just pick one aspect of a player's game and make a summary value assessment.

Ruggs is another one. People say he would be an extreme outlier if he hits based on his lack of DR, but would it really be all that surprising if a player with his size/speed/skill turned into a good player? Not to me. From that point of view, if he hits, he would only be an outlier in the sense that nobody in the league can do some of the things he does, which is something I would like to have stock in.
12 Team .5 PPR - 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 WR/RB 20 man rosters, 5 man taxi est. 2018
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RB: Swift, Gibson, Taylor, Akers, Dillon, Penny, Kerryon
WR: JJeff, Aiyuk, Boyd, Hollywood, Mims, C. Samuel, C. Davis, VJeff
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