Courtland Sutton?

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Paul717
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Re: Courtland Sutton?

Postby Paul717 » Mon Apr 27, 2020 11:52 am

Kind of late to this thread and don't mean to derail it...but I'm assuming Denver drafting Jeudy and Hamler can't be good for DaeSean Hamilton's value. Ugg. The NFL draft wasn't good to some of my players but I guess that's the case every year.
"Marathon Square" - 16 team full PPR league with 24 player roster. Keep 16 per year indefinitely, draft 8. Start 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 Team DST
QB: Deshaun Watson, Philip Rivers
RB: Aaron Jones, J.K. Dobbins, Jalen Richard, J.J. Taylor, Eno Benjamin, Trayveon Williams
WR: Calvin Ridley, A.J. Brown, Jamison Crowder, Tee Higgins, Emmanuel Sanders, Kendrick Bourne, Tyler Johnson, Quintez Cephus, Marcus Johnson, Antonio Brown
TE: T.J. Hockenson, Cole Kmet
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Team DST: Lions, Jets

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Re: Courtland Sutton?

Postby bjd5211 » Mon Apr 27, 2020 12:12 pm

Paul717 wrote:
Mon Apr 27, 2020 11:52 am
Kind of late to this thread and don't mean to derail it...but I'm assuming Denver drafting Jeudy and Hamler can't be good for DaeSean Hamilton's value. Ugg. The NFL draft wasn't good to some of my players but I guess that's the case every year.
DaeSean Hamilton wasn't good for DaeSean Hamilton's value to begin with, but yes this is the death of whatever value he had.

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Re: Courtland Sutton?

Postby YouMightDieTryin » Mon Apr 27, 2020 12:25 pm

I had Hamilton and Patrick as holdovers to see what might transpire this offseason, but looks like I just freed up some useful bench slots.

Jeudy and Hamler will work under and across the middle and Sutton will feast over the top. Look for the same numbers from Sutton if not better.
10-Team Dynasty League QB/RB/RB/WR/WR/WR/FLEX (23 man rosters + 2 IR + 2 Taxi, non-PPR scoring)
QB: Brady, Mayfield
RB: Saquon, Elliott, CEH, K.Hunt, Malcolm Brown, Justin Jackson,
WR: DJ Moore, OBJ, Kupp, B.Cooks, D.Parker, Jeudy, Pittman, Shenault, B. Edwards, ESB, Scotty Miller, Sims Jr
TE: H.Henry, C.Herndon, I Smith Jr, Shultz
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Re: Courtland Sutton?

Postby Ice » Mon Apr 27, 2020 12:41 pm

Bronco Billy wrote:
Mon Apr 27, 2020 11:34 am
Ice wrote:
Mon Apr 27, 2020 11:22 am
I would trade Sutton away for Jeudy in a heartbeat. These two are not close.

Sutton has WR2 upside in fantasy. Jeudy has elite WR1 upside due to vastly superior route running.

Can't imagine too many Fantasy football players saying with a straight face they would rather have Sutton.
I would. When quality DBs like Chris Harris say Sutton is uncoverable in practice, I listen. Just because he suffered under Flacco’s refusal to throw into tight coverage (which is where Sutton wins) and that he couldn’t throw a ball within 5 yards of an elephant standing in the corner of the end zone on a fade route is not something anyone should hold against Sutton. There is absolutely no evidence right now that Jeudy is a better pro than Sutton. your bias not withstanding.
No skin in the game with either player but your not going to find a single scout that would rank these two really close in overall ability. I like Sutton just fine but no evidence means what exactly.

Pretty much the vast majority would agree Jeudy is a way better route runner. One reason he went 15th and Sutton was the 40th pick.

I guess you call it talent bias; I do like a 13.9 29th ranked points per game player like Sutton but that is approaching his ceiling. Jeudy is a much higher rated player and those numbers will most likely be closer to his floor in the near future.

Doesn't mean Sutton isn't good. I know Dallas past on Sutton in favor of Gallup who put up Sutton numbers in 2 less games. I would say the same thing about Lamb who has a better skill set than Gallup and Gallup was 18th in PPg last year.

Simply put any argument that a player has already done it makes zero sense. That is Captain obvious thinking since they have been in the league longer.

We draft and trade players based on talent and projections not longevity.
The clock is running and there are no timeouts

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Re: Courtland Sutton?

Postby Kmani6 » Mon Apr 27, 2020 1:38 pm

Ice wrote:
Mon Apr 27, 2020 12:41 pm
Bronco Billy wrote:
Mon Apr 27, 2020 11:34 am
Ice wrote:
Mon Apr 27, 2020 11:22 am
I would trade Sutton away for Jeudy in a heartbeat. These two are not close.

Sutton has WR2 upside in fantasy. Jeudy has elite WR1 upside due to vastly superior route running.

Can't imagine too many Fantasy football players saying with a straight face they would rather have Sutton.
I would. When quality DBs like Chris Harris say Sutton is uncoverable in practice, I listen. Just because he suffered under Flacco’s refusal to throw into tight coverage (which is where Sutton wins) and that he couldn’t throw a ball within 5 yards of an elephant standing in the corner of the end zone on a fade route is not something anyone should hold against Sutton. There is absolutely no evidence right now that Jeudy is a better pro than Sutton. your bias not withstanding.
No skin in the game with either player but your not going to find a single scout that would rank these two really close in overall ability. I like Sutton just fine but no evidence means what exactly.

Pretty much the vast majority would agree Jeudy is a way better route runner. One reason he went 15th and Sutton was the 40th pick.

I guess you call it talent bias; I do like a 13.9 29th ranked points per game player like Sutton but that is approaching his ceiling. Jeudy is a much higher rated player and those numbers will most likely be closer to his floor in the near future.

Doesn't mean Sutton isn't good. I know Dallas past on Sutton in favor of Gallup who put up Sutton numbers in 2 less games. I would say the same thing about Lamb who has a better skill set than Gallup and Gallup was 18th in PPg last year.

Simply put any argument that a player has already done it makes zero sense. That is Captain obvious thinking since they have been in the league longer.

We draft and trade players based on talent and projections not longevity.
Agreed.

There are basically two points being argued in this thread. The first is if Sutton's value is affected. This is different from if his production is affected. The consensus around Sutton was that his talent matched his production, and that given the opportunity he would be able to take another jump and hit WR 1 numbers. No one was valuing Sutton that high and thinking they were getting ~WR 16 numbers for years. So, if you believe that his ceiling is now capped, or that he may only repeat his last year's season then you hold the same opinion that his value has actually gone down. The reasoning for this ceiling can be attributed too many different factors. Potentially, continued depressed TD rate by adding in MG3 who is a red-zone beast. Maybe adding Jeudy/Hamler depresses Sutton's target share. Most likely (in my opinion), the lack of Lock's production to support Sutton, Jeudy, Hamler, and Fant.

The second is if Jeudy is actually a better football player than Sutton. Jeudy is a better prospect than Sutton coming out. The supporting evidence is the draft capital, and college production. Ultimately, only time will tell who is actually better on the NFL level. My guess is Jeudy.
Dynasty Team 1:

10 Man, Full PPR, .2 PPC, Double Flex

QB: Dak Prescott
RB: Joe Mixon, Nick Chubb, Dalvin Cook, CEH, Sanders
WR: Devante Adams, Mike Evans, , Tyreek Hill, Mclaurin, Denzel Mims
TE: Travis Kelce,Dallas Goedert

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Re: Courtland Sutton?

Postby Bronco Billy » Mon Apr 27, 2020 1:40 pm

Ice wrote:
Mon Apr 27, 2020 12:41 pm

No skin in the game with either player but your not going to find a single scout that would rank these two really close in overall ability. I like Sutton just fine but no evidence means what exactly.

Pretty much the vast majority would agree Jeudy is a way better route runner. One reason he went 15th and Sutton was the 40th pick.

I guess you call it talent bias; I do like a 13.9 29th ranked points per game player like Sutton but that is approaching his ceiling. Jeudy is a much higher rated player and those numbers will most likely be closer to his floor in the near future.

Doesn't mean Sutton isn't good. I know Dallas past on Sutton in favor of Gallup who put up Sutton numbers in 2 less games. I would say the same thing about Lamb who has a better skill set than Gallup and Gallup was 18th in PPg last year.

Simply put any argument that a player has already done it makes zero sense. That is Captain obvious thinking since they have been in the league longer.

We draft and trade players based on talent and projections not longevity.
Must be a lot of dumb FFers out there then. In dynasty startup drafts going right now, Sutton’s ADP is about WR11 while Jeudy’s is WR20. What does Captain Obvious say about that? For a guy with no dog in the hunt - as you say, you sure are beating the drum awfully hard for Jeudy while diminishing Sutton in comparison.

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Re: Courtland Sutton?

Postby Ice » Mon Apr 27, 2020 2:02 pm

I agree there are a lot of dumb FF players out there especially if they are drafting Sutton as Wr11 overall.

It's about how you're taking it. Obviously you must view Sutton as a clear WR1.

I have Jeudy #3 in this class. I do like Sutton but at WR2 value with a ceiling at about 15 points per game. I can't imagine you really believe Sutton will be WR11 coming off a WR29 year in points per game average.

Jeudy has Wr1 upside. If you're a Bronco fan you should be ecstatic to have a legit WR1 upside player joining the team.
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Re: Courtland Sutton?

Postby Kmani6 » Mon Apr 27, 2020 2:10 pm

Ice wrote:
Mon Apr 27, 2020 2:02 pm
I agree there are a lot of dumb FF players out there especially if they are drafting Sutton as Wr11 overall.

It's about how you're taking it. Obviously you must view Sutton as a clear WR1.

I have Jeudy #3 in this class. I do like Sutton but at WR2 value with a ceiling at about 15 points per game. I can't imagine you really believe Sutton will be WR11 coming off a WR29 year in points per game average.

Jeudy has Wr1 upside. If you're a Bronco fan you should be ecstatic to have a legit WR1 upside player joining the team.
You are comparing where he finished to his PPG average. If you are going to say that you should at least include that he finished 17-19th through all scoring formats.

However, I agree with you. Before the Broncos offseason moves I would agree he had a chance to break into the WR 1 range and finish WR11. Now, I think he is going to return a similar finish in that middle to back end WR 2 range. This is why I think his value has decreased because it was built on the notion that he would take another big jump in Year 3.
Dynasty Team 1:

10 Man, Full PPR, .2 PPC, Double Flex

QB: Dak Prescott
RB: Joe Mixon, Nick Chubb, Dalvin Cook, CEH, Sanders
WR: Devante Adams, Mike Evans, , Tyreek Hill, Mclaurin, Denzel Mims
TE: Travis Kelce,Dallas Goedert

Dynasty Team 2:

16 Team, SuperFlex, PPR, .25 PPC

QB: Rodgers, Big Ben, Winston, Trubisky,
RB: Cook, Mixon,Ingram, Murray, Coleman, Hyde, Miller, Duke Johnson
WR: Golladay,A.J. Green, Landry, Shepard, Sanders, Tate, Westbrook, Fitzgerald
TE: Engram, Rudolph, Doyle

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Re: Courtland Sutton?

Postby Ice » Mon Apr 27, 2020 2:19 pm

While there is something to be said for iron man play. I look to PPG as the true legit measure of how a player plays. Just look at in a way so there are no illusions that Sutton is better than D. Adams or a T. Hill type.

Most probably know his total points were as you stated.
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Re: Courtland Sutton?

Postby joeday » Mon Apr 27, 2020 2:45 pm

Reading some of these comments it almost feels like Sutton is dropable! haha.

I tried to get him for 1.10 after reading this thread and got instant rejected :-(

I did go back and look at his highlight reel from 2019 with Flacco, Allen, and Lock throwing too him...he looked pretty darn good to me.

All joking aside, those who believe this was a terrible draft weekend for Sutton, where do you have him ranked and what WRs do you have in front of him?
BERLIN BOMBERS 8 – 3
1996 | 2005 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2017 – CHAMPION
1999 | 2000 | 2019 – RUNNER - UP

14 teams | 4 keepers | non ppr | est. 1996
QB – Kyler Murray | Taysom Hill | Nick Mullens
RB – Christian McCaffrey | Kenyan Drake | Mike Davis | Salvon Ahmed | Joshua Kelley
WR – DJ Moore | Calvin Ridley | Robert Woods | Antonio Brown | Deebo Samuel | Jakobi Meyers
TE – Jonnu Smith | Robert Tonyan | Anthony Firkser
K – Harrison Butker | Tyler Bass
D/ST – Giants | Browns | 49ers


ROCKY MOUNTAIN MASTODONS 9 – 2
2011 | 2013 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 – CHAMPION
2008 | 2012 | 2014 | 2019 – RUNNER - UP
12 teams | 10 keepers | non ppr | est. 2001
QB – Tom Brady | Carson Wentz | Tua Tagovailoa
RB – Ezekiel Elliott | Derrick Henry | Dalvin Cook | Tony Pollard | Alexander Mattison | D'Onta Foreman
WR – DeAndre Hopkins | Davante Adams | DJ Moore | Calvin Ridley | Jakobi Meyers
TE – Darren Waller | Trey Burton
K – Jason Sanders
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Re: Courtland Sutton?

Postby FantasyFreak » Mon Apr 27, 2020 2:47 pm

Ice wrote:
Mon Apr 27, 2020 2:02 pm
I agree there are a lot of dumb FF players out there especially if they are drafting Sutton as Wr11 overall.

It's about how you're taking it. Obviously you must view Sutton as a clear WR1.

I have Jeudy #3 in this class. I do like Sutton but at WR2 value with a ceiling at about 15 points per game. I can't imagine you really believe Sutton will be WR11 coming off a WR29 year in points per game average.

Jeudy has Wr1 upside. If you're a Bronco fan you should be ecstatic to have a legit WR1 upside player joining the team.
If Jeudy has WR1 upside, Sutton does.

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Re: Courtland Sutton?

Postby Jigga94 » Mon Apr 27, 2020 3:01 pm

joeday wrote:
Mon Apr 27, 2020 2:45 pm
Reading some of these comments it almost feels like Sutton is dropable! haha.

I tried to get him for 1.10 after reading this thread and got instant rejected :-(

I did go back and look at his highlight reel from 2019 with Flacco, Allen, and Lock throwing too him...he looked pretty darn good to me.

All joking aside, those who believe this was a terrible draft weekend for Sutton, where do you have him ranked and what WRs do you have in front of him?
I think you're missing some of the points being made. You can believe that Sutton is not worthy of being WR11 overall (off the top of my head, I'd have him in the 15-20 range likely). You can also believe that this draft did not hurt his value... It doesn't have to be both. I think it might actually be a good thing for him to add some talent that does different things.

Truth is, when comparing prospects, Jeudy is much better. Could he bust? Unlikely, but yes. Would I trade Sutton for him STRAIGHT up? Probably not. Does not mean I don't think Jeudy has a higher ceiling.

Maybe I'm too low on Sutton... Who knows. I just see Alshon Jeffery in him and I never liked him much either
2QB, 2RB, 3WR, TE, FLEX - PPR - [b]14 Keepers[/b]
QB: Mahomes, J. Allen, Baker, D. Jones
RB: JT, Mostert (IR), Gaskin (IR), Dillon, Ingram, Mattison, Scott, McKissic
WR: Tyreek, DJM, Jeudy, Hollywood, Cooks, Mims, Hardman, Preston (IR), Parris (IR)
TE: Andrews, Fant, Henry
2021: 1.05-1.10, 2, 3

2QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, 3FLEX - PPR - [b]20 Keepers[/b]
QB: Mahomes, Ryan, Mullens, Luton, Minshew (IR)
RB: Saquon (IR), Jacobs, Dobbins, Hunt, Penny (IR)
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Re: Courtland Sutton?

Postby Ice » Mon Apr 27, 2020 3:08 pm

Jigga94 wrote:
Mon Apr 27, 2020 3:01 pm
joeday wrote:
Mon Apr 27, 2020 2:45 pm
Reading some of these comments it almost feels like Sutton is dropable! haha.

I tried to get him for 1.10 after reading this thread and got instant rejected :-(

I did go back and look at his highlight reel from 2019 with Flacco, Allen, and Lock throwing too him...he looked pretty darn good to me.

All joking aside, those who believe this was a terrible draft weekend for Sutton, where do you have him ranked and what WRs do you have in front of him?
I think you're missing some of the points being made. You can believe that Sutton is not worthy of being WR11 overall (off the top of my head, I'd have him in the 15-20 range likely). You can also believe that this draft did not hurt his value... It doesn't have to be both. I think it might actually be a good thing for him to add some talent that does different things.

Truth is, when comparing prospects, Jeudy is much better. Could he bust? Unlikely, but yes. Would I trade Sutton for him STRAIGHT up? Probably not. Does not mean I don't think Jeudy has a higher ceiling.

Maybe I'm too low on Sutton... Who knows. I just see Alshon Jeffery in him and I never liked him much either
I don't disagree with ^ at all. I also see him as a solid WR2.

Guess the difference is that I would easily trade a WR2 for a WR1 upside play. That is a risk tolerance decision. IMO, there are many Marvin Jones types out there if I miss on a trade like getting Jeudy for Sutton.
Last edited by Ice on Mon Apr 27, 2020 3:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Courtland Sutton?

Postby joeday » Mon Apr 27, 2020 3:10 pm

Also, looking back at a lot of 2018 pre draft rankings, Sutton was consistantly the 2nd or 3rd ranked WR and mocked quite a bit in the first round, but all skill positions players fell other than Barkley.

But if Jeudy is so much more talented than Sutton doesn't that open up the field for him?
BERLIN BOMBERS 8 – 3
1996 | 2005 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2017 – CHAMPION
1999 | 2000 | 2019 – RUNNER - UP

14 teams | 4 keepers | non ppr | est. 1996
QB – Kyler Murray | Taysom Hill | Nick Mullens
RB – Christian McCaffrey | Kenyan Drake | Mike Davis | Salvon Ahmed | Joshua Kelley
WR – DJ Moore | Calvin Ridley | Robert Woods | Antonio Brown | Deebo Samuel | Jakobi Meyers
TE – Jonnu Smith | Robert Tonyan | Anthony Firkser
K – Harrison Butker | Tyler Bass
D/ST – Giants | Browns | 49ers


ROCKY MOUNTAIN MASTODONS 9 – 2
2011 | 2013 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 – CHAMPION
2008 | 2012 | 2014 | 2019 – RUNNER - UP
12 teams | 10 keepers | non ppr | est. 2001
QB – Tom Brady | Carson Wentz | Tua Tagovailoa
RB – Ezekiel Elliott | Derrick Henry | Dalvin Cook | Tony Pollard | Alexander Mattison | D'Onta Foreman
WR – DeAndre Hopkins | Davante Adams | DJ Moore | Calvin Ridley | Jakobi Meyers
TE – Darren Waller | Trey Burton
K – Jason Sanders
D/ST – Ravens | Giants

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Re: Courtland Sutton?

Postby joeday » Mon Apr 27, 2020 3:10 pm

Ice wrote:
Mon Apr 27, 2020 3:08 pm
Jigga94 wrote:
Mon Apr 27, 2020 3:01 pm
joeday wrote:
Mon Apr 27, 2020 2:45 pm
Reading some of these comments it almost feels like Sutton is dropable! haha.

I tried to get him for 1.10 after reading this thread and got instant rejected :-(

I did go back and look at his highlight reel from 2019 with Flacco, Allen, and Lock throwing too him...he looked pretty darn good to me.

All joking aside, those who believe this was a terrible draft weekend for Sutton, where do you have him ranked and what WRs do you have in front of him?
I think you're missing some of the points being made. You can believe that Sutton is not worthy of being WR11 overall (off the top of my head, I'd have him in the 15-20 range likely). You can also believe that this draft did not hurt his value... It doesn't have to be both. I think it might actually be a good thing for him to add some talent that does different things.

Truth is, when comparing prospects, Jeudy is much better. Could he bust? Unlikely, but yes. Would I trade Sutton for him STRAIGHT up? Probably not. Does not mean I don't think Jeudy has a higher ceiling.

Maybe I'm too low on Sutton... Who knows. I just see Alshon Jeffery in him and I never liked him much either
I don't disagree with ^ at all. I also see him as a solid WR2.

Guess the difference is that I would easily trade a WR2 for a WR1 upside play. That is a risk tolerance decision. IMO, there are many Marvin Jones types out there if I miss on a trade like getting Jeudy for Sutton.
So where do you guys put him? Say compared to Keenan Allen, for example?
BERLIN BOMBERS 8 – 3
1996 | 2005 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2017 – CHAMPION
1999 | 2000 | 2019 – RUNNER - UP

14 teams | 4 keepers | non ppr | est. 1996
QB – Kyler Murray | Taysom Hill | Nick Mullens
RB – Christian McCaffrey | Kenyan Drake | Mike Davis | Salvon Ahmed | Joshua Kelley
WR – DJ Moore | Calvin Ridley | Robert Woods | Antonio Brown | Deebo Samuel | Jakobi Meyers
TE – Jonnu Smith | Robert Tonyan | Anthony Firkser
K – Harrison Butker | Tyler Bass
D/ST – Giants | Browns | 49ers


ROCKY MOUNTAIN MASTODONS 9 – 2
2011 | 2013 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 – CHAMPION
2008 | 2012 | 2014 | 2019 – RUNNER - UP
12 teams | 10 keepers | non ppr | est. 2001
QB – Tom Brady | Carson Wentz | Tua Tagovailoa
RB – Ezekiel Elliott | Derrick Henry | Dalvin Cook | Tony Pollard | Alexander Mattison | D'Onta Foreman
WR – DeAndre Hopkins | Davante Adams | DJ Moore | Calvin Ridley | Jakobi Meyers
TE – Darren Waller | Trey Burton
K – Jason Sanders
D/ST – Ravens | Giants


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