Clyde Edwards-Helaire is your new 1.01

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Re: Clyde Edwards-Helaire is your new 1.01

Postby tresskid84 » Sat May 15, 2021 9:20 am

Sriracha wrote: Fri May 14, 2021 10:20 am
dlf_mikeh wrote: Fri May 14, 2021 8:17 am In hindsight that's pretty easy to say. At the time of JT vs CEH I said that I'd rather have CEH, especially in PPR leagues, because JT will have to wait a year to develop behind Mack, and CEH would be used more in the passing game than JT, and was drafted to a high scoring offense.

Mack gets hurt and JT gets fed carries and runs behind one of the best lines in football, while CEH gets one of the worst O-lines due to multiple injuries and 2 starters who opt out due to covid. Nobody saw any of that coming.

The biggest shock to me is that JT is actually being useful in the passing game. I did not see this coming at any year of his career, let alone his first year. This alone raises his value to a whole new level for me. This is the best surprise for JT owners imo.

But was that because of Rivers? Will this continue with Wentz? I hope so. Watching JT get better in multiple phases of the game skyrockets his ceiling even higher than before.
This is some narrative driven analysis.

The difference in O-line play was not nearly as drastic as you're making it out to be. Via PFF they finished at #7 in the NFL, KC finished #11 in the NFL.

JT was the more efficient player because he's bigger/faster/stronger.
Just to clarify something here. The Colts oline finished as their #7 oline overall, but their run blocking grade was #3 in the league. The Chiefs were #12 in run blocking.
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Re: Clyde Edwards-Helaire is your new 1.01

Postby Ice » Sat May 15, 2021 4:54 pm

Teams pretty much are motivated to change their line when they are terrible. No matter how one slices it; The Chiefs O Line was their weakest link.

Their actions confirm this.
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Re: Clyde Edwards-Helaire is your new 1.01

Postby MEuRaH » Sat May 15, 2021 6:43 pm

tresskid84 wrote: Sat May 15, 2021 8:35 amHonest question, as a long time reader of pff as well as dlf. When did PFF call Wayne Gallman a first round pick?
I don't remember the date or anything. It would have obviously been pre-draft. They called him a "first round value" based on their metrics. I still love the site for stats that you can't get anywhere else, but I take very little value in their rankings system. Their RB & WR ranks, for example, always seems to correlate to touches more than anything else. "Guess who our top 5 WRs for the year were?" Oh wow, it's also the top five guys who touched the ball? How interesting.

My only grudge is with their ranks. They have great stats.
Sriracha wrote: Sat May 15, 2021 9:19 amEric Fisher tore an ACL in the playoffs and Mitchell Schwartz is 31 coming off an injury plagued year...

And they basically lost the Super Bowl because their O-line got demolished without those 2 guys in the lineup.

It's very possible that they're need to change their O-line was motivated by other factors than simply their O-line being terrible in 2020.
If it weren't for every Chiefs fan talking about how bad the season was all year long, I'd give your opinion more weight. Literally every Chiefs fan said each game was hard to watch, and that both Mahomes and Reid bailed out that line all year long.

EDIT: Looks like we have yet another Chiefs fan in this very thread who is piling on with that same observation. Thanks for the feedback SteveMaddensShoes. Mahomes is going to have a great 2021 season!
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Re: Clyde Edwards-Helaire is your new 1.01

Postby StripesOfKC » Sat May 15, 2021 6:51 pm

Sriracha wrote: Sat May 15, 2021 9:19 am
dlf_mikeh wrote: Sat May 15, 2021 4:56 am
Sriracha wrote: Fri May 14, 2021 10:20 amThe difference in O-line play was not nearly as drastic as you're making it out to be. Via PFF they finished at #7 in the NFL, KC finished #11 in the NFL.
I've spoken my piece about PFF over the years but I don't mind saying it again: PFF is over-valued. They called Zach Moss the best rookie RB of his class. They called Wayne Gallman a first round pick. Etc. I like PFF for stats that I can't get anywhere else, but not when they try to take those stats and make some sort of rankings system out of it. It just doesn't work imo.

If the Chiefs O-line was so great, the top brass wouldn't have spent significant cap space and draft capital on replacing everyone. They replaced six players on that line and are getting two more back who opted out due to covid. That's eight new players this year than from the year prior. They made it a priority because it was terrible, regardless of what PFF suggests.
Eric Fisher tore an ACL in the playoffs and Mitchell Schwartz is 31 coming off an injury plagued year...

And they basically lost the Super Bowl because their O-line got demolished without those 2 guys in the lineup.

It's very possible that they're need to change their O-line was motivated by other factors than simply their O-line being terrible in 2020.
Our O line was terrible in 2020 at run blocking though

At pass blocking it was closer to mediocre/lower mediocre but run blocking has been an issue for a while

That said Schwartz/Fisher were old, coming off major injuries and expensive so that's definitely a factor--but with or without them even if the Super Bowl didn't happen, the interior needed upgrades

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Re: Clyde Edwards-Helaire is your new 1.01

Postby tresskid84 » Sun May 16, 2021 8:11 am

dlf_mikeh wrote: Sat May 15, 2021 6:43 pm
tresskid84 wrote: Sat May 15, 2021 8:35 amHonest question, as a long time reader of pff as well as dlf. When did PFF call Wayne Gallman a first round pick?
I don't remember the date or anything. It would have obviously been pre-draft. They called him a "first round value" based on their metrics. I still love the site for stats that you can't get anywhere else, but I take very little value in their rankings system. Their RB & WR ranks, for example, always seems to correlate to touches more than anything else. "Guess who our top 5 WRs for the year were?" Oh wow, it's also the top five guys who touched the ball? How interesting.

My only grudge is with their ranks. They have great stats.
If you are strictly talking about their fantasy rankings/content, i will pretty much agree with you there. Outside of reading Kevin Cole's stuff (which I just find intersting more anything) and their positional matchup articles, I've never been a huge fan of their fantasy content, especially their dynasty/devy content.
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Re: Clyde Edwards-Helaire is your new 1.01

Postby killer_of_giants » Mon May 17, 2021 5:31 am

YouMightDieTryin wrote: Fri May 14, 2021 8:43 am
murphysxm wrote: Fri May 14, 2021 8:28 am
dlf_mikeh wrote: Fri May 14, 2021 8:17 am
But was that because of Rivers? Will this continue with Wentz? I hope so. Watching JT get better in multiple phases of the game skyrockets his ceiling even higher than before.
I see regression without Rivers
I tend to agree. Carson just isn't as smart with the ball as Rivers was. Rivers knew when to give up on a play and bail. With Carson there's going to be the effort to extend plays which will hurt JT slightly. Sure you might get a big play every once in awhile, but you'll also take your licks them too.
but someone that can actually throw more than 10 yards might mean a bit more holes at the line of scrimmage.

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Re: Clyde Edwards-Helaire is your new 1.01

Postby Sriracha » Mon May 17, 2021 10:38 am

killer_of_giants wrote: Mon May 17, 2021 5:31 am
YouMightDieTryin wrote: Fri May 14, 2021 8:43 am
murphysxm wrote: Fri May 14, 2021 8:28 am

I see regression without Rivers
I tend to agree. Carson just isn't as smart with the ball as Rivers was. Rivers knew when to give up on a play and bail. With Carson there's going to be the effort to extend plays which will hurt JT slightly. Sure you might get a big play every once in awhile, but you'll also take your licks them too.
but someone that can actually throw more than 10 yards might mean a bit more holes at the line of scrimmage.
Carson struggled last year, but he's historically been a good decision maker.

With that said.. he's very willing to throw to his RB and will stretch the field better than Rivers was able to last year. Overall value boost to JT.

Somewhat unrelated.. but I see a lot more Devonta Freeman in Michael Carter than I do CEH.

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CEH becoming a buy low opportunity yet?

Postby Major_Loser » Tue Sep 28, 2021 9:07 pm

Looks like owners in leagues are getting nervous even after a good week. Thoughts?
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Re: CEH becoming a buy low opportunity yet?

Postby nathanq42 » Tue Sep 28, 2021 9:56 pm

I expect him to bounce back. Rough start to the season, but he has seemed to bounce back with solid efficiency on the ground last week. Main concerns going forward:

Fumblitis, this will get him to the bottom of the totem pole fast. Two fumbles lost in two weeks is very concerning. Could also limit his playing time in the RZ and in high stakes situations.

Lack of targets, this was supposed to be his best tool coming into the league. If you would show me swift and CEHs touch metrics when they were first coming into the league I would bet my life that CEH would have Swift's usage and vice versa.

Now if these trends continue you might be buying high, if they reverse you will look like a great manager. I personally think it is more likely that CEH cleans up the fumbles and gets more targets.
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Re: CEH becoming a buy low opportunity yet?

Postby Pullo Vision » Wed Sep 29, 2021 1:19 am

My concern with the fumbles- no history of that in college, suddenly two in two weeks. Worried that teams have found a way to attack him and loosen the ball. Sometimes, it's a question of carrying it a certain way, sometimes the ball carrier has a tendency of fighting for every half yard. Against those players, you gang tackle but keep the ball carrier upright while ripping at the ball.
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Re: CEH becoming a buy low opportunity yet?

Postby Cameron Giles » Wed Sep 29, 2021 4:46 am

I think it's clear at this point (if it wasn't before) that he's not a special talent, and because Mahomes is who he is, the Chiefs are never going to run it down your throat. So, they have to utilize him in the receiving game, which is his specialty. The problem is...they just don't. It's kind of crazy that the Steelers use Najee in the passing game more.

CEH has 5 targets...5..... through 3 games.

Everything in this offense funnels through Kelce and Hill. Nothing else is guaranteed outside of that.

I would definitely think about selling if I owned him. He'll have good games, but the usage is not encouraging. He's RB34 in PPR right now. People talked about how Andy Reid is a miracle worker for RBs, but not seeing it with CEH so far.

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Re: CEH becoming a buy low opportunity yet?

Postby FantasyFreak » Wed Sep 29, 2021 7:37 am

Pullo Vision wrote: Wed Sep 29, 2021 1:19 am My concern with the fumbles- no history of that in college, suddenly two in two weeks. Worried that teams have found a way to attack him and loosen the ball. Sometimes, it's a question of carrying it a certain way, sometimes the ball carrier has a tendency of fighting for every half yard. Against those players, you gang tackle but keep the ball carrier upright while ripping at the ball.
First fumble the player came in unblocked and got a clean punch just after he took the handoff. Last week it was a helmet, I think, right on the ball as he was fighting for extra yards, and being twisted. Looked like clean strikes with force right on the ball, I don't think it's an issue with what Clyde is doing. Sometimes there's not a lot you can do, it's just a good defensive play.
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Re: CEH becoming a buy low opportunity yet?

Postby FantasyFreak » Wed Sep 29, 2021 7:39 am

Cameron Giles wrote: Wed Sep 29, 2021 4:46 am I think it's clear at this point (if it wasn't before) that he's not a special talent, and because Mahomes is who he is, the Chiefs are never going to run it down your throat. So, they have to utilize him in the receiving game, which is his specialty. The problem is...they just don't. It's kind of crazy that the Steelers use Najee in the passing game more.

CEH has 5 targets...5..... through 3 games.

Everything in this offense funnels through Kelce and Hill. Nothing else is guaranteed outside of that.

I would definitely think about selling if I owned him. He'll have good games, but the usage is not encouraging. He's RB34 in PPR right now. People talked about how Andy Reid is a miracle worker for RBs, but not seeing it with CEH so far.
I don't think that's true. They did it week 1 last year vs the Texans, and again vs the Bills, where CEH put up over 160 yards on the ground, on 26 carries. They just ground and pounded the Bills. They won't do it often, but they will if they figure out that it's working, Reid has shown he is willing to do it at times.
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Re: CEH becoming a buy low opportunity yet?

Postby Cameron Giles » Wed Sep 29, 2021 7:46 am

FantasyFreak wrote: Wed Sep 29, 2021 7:39 am
Cameron Giles wrote: Wed Sep 29, 2021 4:46 am I think it's clear at this point (if it wasn't before) that he's not a special talent, and because Mahomes is who he is, the Chiefs are never going to run it down your throat. So, they have to utilize him in the receiving game, which is his specialty. The problem is...they just don't. It's kind of crazy that the Steelers use Najee in the passing game more.

CEH has 5 targets...5..... through 3 games.

Everything in this offense funnels through Kelce and Hill. Nothing else is guaranteed outside of that.

I would definitely think about selling if I owned him. He'll have good games, but the usage is not encouraging. He's RB34 in PPR right now. People talked about how Andy Reid is a miracle worker for RBs, but not seeing it with CEH so far.
I don't think that's true. They did it week 1 last year vs the Texans, and again vs the Bills, where CEH put up over 160 yards on the ground, on 26 carries. They just ground and pounded the Bills. They won't do it often, but they will if they figure out that it's working, Reid has shown he is willing to do it at times.
Those are just outliers. The Chiefs with Mahomes as a starter are 23rd, 27th, and 23rd in rushing attempts. They are currently 21st, and again project as a bottom tier rushing group.

His rushing attempts will never be consistently high and his receiving usage is not prioritized.

If you're buying CEH, you're hoping one of those things will eventually change significantly, but there's no sign it will. Everyone not named Kelce or Hill is basically fighting for scraps game to game.

People crowned CEH because they were convinced they were getting Westbrook, McCoy, or rookie season Hunt. Doesn't look that way so far.

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Re: CEH becoming a buy low opportunity yet?

Postby nathanq42 » Wed Sep 29, 2021 9:26 am

Cameron Giles wrote: Wed Sep 29, 2021 7:46 am
FantasyFreak wrote: Wed Sep 29, 2021 7:39 am
Cameron Giles wrote: Wed Sep 29, 2021 4:46 am I think it's clear at this point (if it wasn't before) that he's not a special talent, and because Mahomes is who he is, the Chiefs are never going to run it down your throat. So, they have to utilize him in the receiving game, which is his specialty. The problem is...they just don't. It's kind of crazy that the Steelers use Najee in the passing game more.

CEH has 5 targets...5..... through 3 games.

Everything in this offense funnels through Kelce and Hill. Nothing else is guaranteed outside of that.

I would definitely think about selling if I owned him. He'll have good games, but the usage is not encouraging. He's RB34 in PPR right now. People talked about how Andy Reid is a miracle worker for RBs, but not seeing it with CEH so far.
I don't think that's true. They did it week 1 last year vs the Texans, and again vs the Bills, where CEH put up over 160 yards on the ground, on 26 carries. They just ground and pounded the Bills. They won't do it often, but they will if they figure out that it's working, Reid has shown he is willing to do it at times.
Those are just outliers. The Chiefs with Mahomes as a starter are 23rd, 27th, and 23rd in rushing attempts. They are currently 21st, and again project as a bottom tier rushing group.

His rushing attempts will never be consistently high and his receiving usage is not prioritized.

If you're buying CEH, you're hoping one of those things will eventually change significantly, but there's no sign it will. Everyone not named Kelce or Hill is basically fighting for scraps game to game.

People crowned CEH because they were convinced they were getting Westbrook, McCoy, or rookie season Hunt. Doesn't look that way so far.
Agreed, I'd be lying if I said I was thrilled with my pick (although the alternative (JT) isn't looking too hot right now either). I do think Reid is going to try to reign Mahomes in just a little bit after some of his recent plays that make him so fun to watch have ended up costing the Chiefs. Does this lead to more work on the ground for CEH? Does this mean more routes out of the backfield for pressure releasing dump offs? I'm really hoping for more check downs for CEH as he is great in space (his jukes in tight are amazing to watch, really fluid navigating the clutter at the LOS, even better in the open field) and that is just more and more space that defenses have to cover which means fewer possible blitzers, or if there is extra pressure you've got a quick dump off
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