Clyde Edwards-Helaire is your new 1.01

General talk about Dynasty Leagues.
Ice
Legend
Legend
Posts: 6590
Joined: Tue May 22, 2018 6:17 pm

Re: Clyde Edwards-Helaire is your new 1.01

Postby Ice » Thu May 13, 2021 11:21 am

OhCruelestRanter wrote: Thu May 13, 2021 11:08 am
Ice wrote: Thu May 13, 2021 11:01 am
Top 5 Rookie Pick I would buy.

Top 5 dynasty asset is a reach.

This site has been all over the map between Swift, Dobbins, CEH, and the god of all RB's throughout the history of organized football. :D
Respectfully, this is demonstrably wrong.

http://mizelle.net/mfl/2020/

Startup 1.05 from August-November 2020. Check for yourself.
Most discuss these players based on rookie value. I get based on your massive research and what (6 drafters) from who knows where may have actually had him in the top 5 overall.

Like I said Top 5 Rookie Pick I buy, Top 5 Dynasty overall dynasty asset is a reach.

As much as it must pain you, it sounds like you agree or think that tiny sample is relevant. My advice is go find them and argue with them.
The Clock is Running and there are no Timeouts

User avatar
Jfever
Legend
Legend
Posts: 6705
Joined: Sun Dec 04, 2011 6:19 pm

Re: Clyde Edwards-Helaire is your new 1.01

Postby Jfever » Thu May 13, 2021 11:59 am

OhCruelestRanter wrote: Thu May 13, 2021 10:56 am
JFever wrote: Thu May 13, 2021 10:46 am His involvement in this offense, being tied to Mahomes and Reid, his pass catching skills with an improved offensive line I think will have many of you re-evaluating things. In dynasty, a dash of patience is required. More patience than I beleive some here are putting on display. As an owner of CEH (after drafting him at 1.02 last year) - I would not trade him straight up for either of the top 2 running backs in this years draft. I'd consider moving him for Chase but it isn't a slam dunk there either depending on the league and starting requirements.

This has a little to do with how some hyped CEH up last year - I agree. But, rational and experianced owners do NOT flip flop that quickly. CEH is a very likely top 10 -15 fantasy scoring rb in ppr. That alone has value. I can't argue with the buy low, sell high, but - I will say that flip flopping on your opinions of players too quickly can also be a mistake.
Is there a single person in this thread suggesting you should sell him? Honest question.

The last few pages are an unabashed dog-pile of how you should buy Edwards-Helaire now, something that only confirms my point that buying him last off-season was a mistake.
Wasn't insinuating that. More to the point, who was selling him last year? Why were people selling last year? Who was buying him at prices that were over inflated past his top 3 draft pick pricetag? Why was his price SO negatively infected by what by all accounts was a very good 12 game stat line? Seems to me perception strayed from reality here.

He has the perfect skill set for this offense. perfect. My personal thoughts are that this kid has all the tools, surrounding cast, coaching staff, and skill sets to be a top 5 ish scoring rb option. I thought this last year as well but wasn't surprised to see less than that in production in year one with a couple minor injuries.
Truth is found through Evidence.

Science is the poetry of reality.

* Reality (as defined by Webster's dictionary) - A word for things as they actually exist, as opposed to an idealistic or notional ideal of them.

blemly
Pro Bowler
Pro Bowler
Posts: 1087
Joined: Fri Apr 19, 2019 9:09 am

Re: Clyde Edwards-Helaire is your new 1.01

Postby blemly » Thu May 13, 2021 12:45 pm

Ice wrote: Thu May 13, 2021 11:21 am
OhCruelestRanter wrote: Thu May 13, 2021 11:08 am
Ice wrote: Thu May 13, 2021 11:01 am
Top 5 Rookie Pick I would buy.

Top 5 dynasty asset is a reach.

This site has been all over the map between Swift, Dobbins, CEH, and the god of all RB's throughout the history of organized football. :D
Respectfully, this is demonstrably wrong.

http://mizelle.net/mfl/2020/

Startup 1.05 from August-November 2020. Check for yourself.
Most discuss these players based on rookie value. I get based on your massive research and what (6 drafters) from who knows where may have actually had him in the top 5 overall.

Like I said Top 5 Rookie Pick I buy, Top 5 Dynasty overall dynasty asset is a reach.

As much as it must pain you, it sounds like you agree or think that tiny sample is relevant. My advice is go find them and argue with them.
FWIW I agree that CEH’s value reached a fever pitch last year and his being considered a T5 startup asset was not out of the question.

viewtopic.php?f=6&t=206616&hilit=3+1sts

^ this is a Trade Advice thread I made after week 1, and consensus was to trade 3 2021 1sts for CEH at that time.
Team 1: 12-team SF 0.5 PPR:
QB: Dak, Russ, Stafford, Geno, Dalton
RB: Harris, Gibson, Chubb, Cohen
WR: DK, Ridley, Kirk, Chark, Woods, C Samuel, Shepard, Reagor
TE: Fant, Knox
Team 2: 14-team PPR SF TEP:
QB: Wilson, Burrow, Geno, Foles
RB: Mixon, Gibson, Hines, Cohen, Pollard
WR: DJM, Cooper, Sutton, Deebo, R. Moore, ARSB, Eskridge, Renfrow
TE: Gesicki, Njoku, Arnold
Team 3: 12-team PPR SF:
QB: Watson, Lawrence, Winston, Cam
RB: Harris, Ekeler, Dobbins
WR: Hill, AJB, Woods, Chark, Lockett
TE: Gesicki, OJH, Firkser
Team 4: 12-team SF TEP Devy
QB: Wilson, Geno, Ryan, Cousins
RB: Zeke, Chubb, Sanders, Pollard, Hines, Cohen, Henderson
WR: Cooper, Godwin, Sutton, JuJu, Samuel, Fuller, Shepard, Campbell
TE: Fant, Gesicki, Ertz, Freiermuth
Devy: Boutte, Young, Slovis, Harris
Team 5: 12-team PPR SF:
QB: Dak, Lance, Jones, Cam
RB: Swift, Sanders, Dobbins, Pollard
WR: Sutton, DJM, Golladay, Chase, Pittman, Kirk, Campbell, Mims, Wallace
TE: Herndon, Gesicki, Freiermuth

User avatar
Jfever
Legend
Legend
Posts: 6705
Joined: Sun Dec 04, 2011 6:19 pm

Re: Clyde Edwards-Helaire is your new 1.01

Postby Jfever » Thu May 13, 2021 12:53 pm

3 future 1sts seems to be a stretch. However, looking at this class, I'd have CEH as worth more than the 1.01 in this years draft class. So, in order to obtain the 1.01 in some draft classes, it would seem that at least 2 plus something else might be needed.

In my opinion, this is not a great draft class. It isn't deep in what I consider to be top end dynasty assets. Top heavy and thin at TE, Decent Qb draft but not remarkable. Wr seems deep but a lot are similar in size, speed, and ability and most seem to be destined to be slot type guys. (Not a bad thing - but might make decisions more difficult), Rb seems very thin and relatively weak. At least it appears as such right now. After the top 5-6 pick in rookie drafts, I see a dramatic drop.
Truth is found through Evidence.

Science is the poetry of reality.

* Reality (as defined by Webster's dictionary) - A word for things as they actually exist, as opposed to an idealistic or notional ideal of them.

jenkins.math
All Pro
All Pro
Posts: 1589
Joined: Sat Sep 29, 2018 10:56 am

Re: Clyde Edwards-Helaire is your new 1.01

Postby jenkins.math » Thu May 13, 2021 12:54 pm

JFever wrote: Thu May 13, 2021 11:59 am
OhCruelestRanter wrote: Thu May 13, 2021 10:56 am
JFever wrote: Thu May 13, 2021 10:46 am His involvement in this offense, being tied to Mahomes and Reid, his pass catching skills with an improved offensive line I think will have many of you re-evaluating things. In dynasty, a dash of patience is required. More patience than I beleive some here are putting on display. As an owner of CEH (after drafting him at 1.02 last year) - I would not trade him straight up for either of the top 2 running backs in this years draft. I'd consider moving him for Chase but it isn't a slam dunk there either depending on the league and starting requirements.

This has a little to do with how some hyped CEH up last year - I agree. But, rational and experianced owners do NOT flip flop that quickly. CEH is a very likely top 10 -15 fantasy scoring rb in ppr. That alone has value. I can't argue with the buy low, sell high, but - I will say that flip flopping on your opinions of players too quickly can also be a mistake.
Is there a single person in this thread suggesting you should sell him? Honest question.

The last few pages are an unabashed dog-pile of how you should buy Edwards-Helaire now, something that only confirms my point that buying him last off-season was a mistake.
Wasn't insinuating that. More to the point, who was selling him last year? Why were people selling last year? Who was buying him at prices that were over inflated past his top 3 draft pick pricetag? Why was his price SO negatively infected by what by all accounts was a very good 12 game stat line? Seems to me perception strayed from reality here.

He has the perfect skill set for this offense. perfect. My personal thoughts are that this kid has all the tools, surrounding cast, coaching staff, and skill sets to be a top 5 ish scoring rb option. I thought this last year as well but wasn't surprised to see less than that in production in year one with a couple minor injuries.
To further your point, I tried to sell CEH for those top 5 startup prices and never got anything close to that. I never got anything resembling an overpay, even as I was on the clock. But you still have to make a pick in your rookie drafts, so it's not like I can just punt the pick and say "nah, this doesn't align with his startup ADP..." Using his startup ADP to devalue him as a poor rookie pick 1.01 or 1.02 just doesn't correlate. It's apples to oranges. This isn't the stock market where a price is set and I can just cash out instantly.

If CEH is a poor pick in rookie drafts, I hope my next poor choice turns in 1100 yards during his rookie season.

Sriracha
Ring of Fame
Ring of Fame
Posts: 3698
Joined: Tue Jun 11, 2019 2:38 pm

Re: Clyde Edwards-Helaire is your new 1.01

Postby Sriracha » Thu May 13, 2021 12:55 pm

JFever wrote: Thu May 13, 2021 11:59 am
OhCruelestRanter wrote: Thu May 13, 2021 10:56 am
JFever wrote: Thu May 13, 2021 10:46 am His involvement in this offense, being tied to Mahomes and Reid, his pass catching skills with an improved offensive line I think will have many of you re-evaluating things. In dynasty, a dash of patience is required. More patience than I beleive some here are putting on display. As an owner of CEH (after drafting him at 1.02 last year) - I would not trade him straight up for either of the top 2 running backs in this years draft. I'd consider moving him for Chase but it isn't a slam dunk there either depending on the league and starting requirements.

This has a little to do with how some hyped CEH up last year - I agree. But, rational and experianced owners do NOT flip flop that quickly. CEH is a very likely top 10 -15 fantasy scoring rb in ppr. That alone has value. I can't argue with the buy low, sell high, but - I will say that flip flopping on your opinions of players too quickly can also be a mistake.
Is there a single person in this thread suggesting you should sell him? Honest question.

The last few pages are an unabashed dog-pile of how you should buy Edwards-Helaire now, something that only confirms my point that buying him last off-season was a mistake.
Wasn't insinuating that. More to the point, who was selling him last year? Why were people selling last year? Who was buying him at prices that were over inflated past his top 3 draft pick pricetag? Why was his price SO negatively infected by what by all accounts was a very good 12 game stat line? Seems to me perception strayed from reality here.

He has the perfect skill set for this offense. perfect. My personal thoughts are that this kid has all the tools, surrounding cast, coaching staff, and skill sets to be a top 5 ish scoring rb option. I thought this last year as well but wasn't surprised to see less than that in production in year one with a couple minor injuries.
This offense didn't need a slow, shifty receiving back.

They needed a RB who could pound the ball when needed and break off big plays with the massive runway defenses were forced to afford whatever RB was on this roster because of Mahomes, Kelce, and Hill.

Ice
Legend
Legend
Posts: 6590
Joined: Tue May 22, 2018 6:17 pm

Re: Clyde Edwards-Helaire is your new 1.01

Postby Ice » Thu May 13, 2021 12:57 pm

I briefly scanned the 15 posts in that thread and it looks like one poster said he could be a top 5 asset provided he had a good year.

My point and I am sure most others looked at the player as legit top 5 rookie but the vast majority who have been playing this game wouldn't consider him a top 5 overall asset never having played a down of professional football.

Potential is a different conversation for most when it comes to start up valuation.

I get some will rank a rookie that high but most would say that would be a pretty big reach in a start up draft. Not sure who is arguing that point. CEH was talked about a lot last season and rightly so; CEH will be talked about a lot this season and again, rightly so.
The Clock is Running and there are no Timeouts

OhCruelestRanter
MVP
MVP
Posts: 2732
Joined: Sun Jul 06, 2014 5:33 pm

Re: Clyde Edwards-Helaire is your new 1.01

Postby OhCruelestRanter » Thu May 13, 2021 1:02 pm

Ice wrote: Thu May 13, 2021 11:21 am
OhCruelestRanter wrote: Thu May 13, 2021 11:08 am
Ice wrote: Thu May 13, 2021 11:01 am
Top 5 Rookie Pick I would buy.

Top 5 dynasty asset is a reach.

This site has been all over the map between Swift, Dobbins, CEH, and the god of all RB's throughout the history of organized football. :D
Respectfully, this is demonstrably wrong.

http://mizelle.net/mfl/2020/

Startup 1.05 from August-November 2020. Check for yourself.
Most discuss these players based on rookie value. I get based on your massive research and what (6 drafters) from who knows where may have actually had him in the top 5 overall.

Like I said Top 5 Rookie Pick I buy, Top 5 Dynasty overall dynasty asset is a reach.

As much as it must pain you, it sounds like you agree or think that tiny sample is relevant. My advice is go find them and argue with them.
For what it’s worth, I (like most people here, I’d imagine) value Mizelle’s work and think it’s relatively reflective of the community at large with regard to 1QB startups. Those were the results for 4 months, averaging 6, 6, 4, and 4 drafts of 12 players each. So in 20 drafts of 240 players, Edwards-Helaire went fifth, on average, from August through November 2020.

I also don’t understand the “top 5 rookie pick” thing. In every draft I saw he was either the first or second non-QB off the board.
COOGAN IS A CHEATER AND A THIEF

Ice
Legend
Legend
Posts: 6590
Joined: Tue May 22, 2018 6:17 pm

Re: Clyde Edwards-Helaire is your new 1.01

Postby Ice » Thu May 13, 2021 1:42 pm

OhCruelestRanter wrote: Thu May 13, 2021 1:02 pm
Ice wrote: Thu May 13, 2021 11:21 am
OhCruelestRanter wrote: Thu May 13, 2021 11:08 am

Respectfully, this is demonstrably wrong.

http://mizelle.net/mfl/2020/

Startup 1.05 from August-November 2020. Check for yourself.
Most discuss these players based on rookie value. I get based on your massive research and what (6 drafters) from who knows where may have actually had him in the top 5 overall.

Like I said Top 5 Rookie Pick I buy, Top 5 Dynasty overall dynasty asset is a reach.

As much as it must pain you, it sounds like you agree or think that tiny sample is relevant. My advice is go find them and argue with them.
For what it’s worth, I (like most people here, I’d imagine) value Mizelle’s work and think it’s relatively reflective of the community at large with regard to 1QB startups. Those were the results for 4 months, averaging 6, 6, 4, and 4 drafts of 12 players each. So in 20 drafts of 240 players, Edwards-Helaire went fifth, on average, from August through November 2020.

I also don’t understand the “top 5 rookie pick” thing. In every draft I saw he was either the first or second non-QB off the board.
I appreciate Mizelle's work as much as anyone. I like the information much better than some of the other tools in the tool box. That said, just because we have data on very few drafts over a few month window doesn't mean we all believe or ever believed he was worthy of a top 5 overall selection.

Of the millions people play fantasy football, 20 total drafts is a very small sample size to think it is gospel that most thought he was top 5 overall Pick outside of you and I.

I can't help you understand the concept of a top 5 rookie pick. Maybe your mind stops at top 2 rookie picks but I know a few that liked Swift and Dobbins better than the other RB's. That said, that is a different subject. I believe CEH was a top 5 rookie pick which means he went really high in rookie drafts.
The Clock is Running and there are no Timeouts

Jigga94
GOAT
GOAT
Posts: 16060
Joined: Thu Nov 09, 2017 8:38 pm

Re: Clyde Edwards-Helaire is your new 1.01

Postby Jigga94 » Thu May 13, 2021 3:03 pm

Ice wrote: Thu May 13, 2021 1:42 pm
OhCruelestRanter wrote: Thu May 13, 2021 1:02 pm
Ice wrote: Thu May 13, 2021 11:21 am

Most discuss these players based on rookie value. I get based on your massive research and what (6 drafters) from who knows where may have actually had him in the top 5 overall.

Like I said Top 5 Rookie Pick I buy, Top 5 Dynasty overall dynasty asset is a reach.

As much as it must pain you, it sounds like you agree or think that tiny sample is relevant. My advice is go find them and argue with them.
For what it’s worth, I (like most people here, I’d imagine) value Mizelle’s work and think it’s relatively reflective of the community at large with regard to 1QB startups. Those were the results for 4 months, averaging 6, 6, 4, and 4 drafts of 12 players each. So in 20 drafts of 240 players, Edwards-Helaire went fifth, on average, from August through November 2020.

I also don’t understand the “top 5 rookie pick” thing. In every draft I saw he was either the first or second non-QB off the board.
I appreciate Mizelle's work as much as anyone. I like the information much better than some of the other tools in the tool box. That said, just because we have data on very few drafts over a few month window doesn't mean we all believe or ever believed he was worthy of a top 5 overall selection.

Of the millions people play fantasy football, 20 total drafts is a very small sample size to think it is gospel that most thought he was top 5 overall Pick outside of you and I.

I can't help you understand the concept of a top 5 rookie pick. Maybe your mind stops at top 2 rookie picks but I know a few that liked Swift and Dobbins better than the other RB's. That said, that is a different subject. I believe CEH was a top 5 rookie pick which means he went really high in rookie drafts.
There were even more people who liked a different rookie RB even more. If only I could think of the name...

Ice
Legend
Legend
Posts: 6590
Joined: Tue May 22, 2018 6:17 pm

Re: Clyde Edwards-Helaire is your new 1.01

Postby Ice » Thu May 13, 2021 3:06 pm

Too Funny! :clap: :clap: :clap:
The Clock is Running and there are no Timeouts

User avatar
murphysxm
Degenerate
Degenerate
Posts: 7614
Joined: Sun Jun 10, 2012 8:10 am

Re: Clyde Edwards-Helaire is your new 1.01

Postby murphysxm » Thu May 13, 2021 3:35 pm

Let's put a bow on this and move on. CEH was overdrafted slightly based on landing spot. He didn't perform as well as owners had hoped for. He's still carries significant value. Moving on........
I am just a guy sharing some thoughts

YouMightDieTryin
MVP
MVP
Posts: 2561
Joined: Fri Apr 05, 2019 1:09 pm

Re: Clyde Edwards-Helaire is your new 1.01

Postby YouMightDieTryin » Fri May 14, 2021 6:32 am

If you took him at the 1.1 you over paid vs JT.
If you took him at the 1.2 it's because you were practically pinholed into it FOMO style. (me!)
If you took him anywhere after 1.2 then I'd say you were justified and will see a ROI this year.

Anyone after 1.2 didn't polarize (RB wise) Dobbins went 1.3, Swift 1.4, Akers went 1.5. All looked good (not great) and showed promise, but all have work to do. It's an open season. After this season is over we can start to really judge who was overrated.
10-Team Dynasty League QB/RB/RB/WR/WR/WR/FLEX (23 man rosters + 2 IR + 2 Taxi, non-PPR scoring)
QB: Herbert, Goff
RB: Bijan, JT, Saquon, J.Cook, K.Hunt, Foreman, Z.White, McKinnon, S.Tucker
WR: G.Wilson, Olave, Jeudy, Pittman, J.Williams, OBJ, N. Brown, JuJu,
TE: Chig, Conklin, L. Thomas
Taxi: M.Mims, Ro. Johnson
'24: (4) 1sts, 2nd, (2) 3rds, 4th
'25: (2) 1sts, 2nd, 3rd, 4th

User avatar
MEuRaH
Legend
Legend
Posts: 6777
Joined: Mon Dec 09, 2013 8:57 pm

Re: Clyde Edwards-Helaire is your new 1.01

Postby MEuRaH » Fri May 14, 2021 8:17 am

YouMightDieTryin wrote: Fri May 14, 2021 6:32 am If you took him at the 1.1 you over paid vs JT.
If you took him at the 1.2 it's because you were practically pinholed into it FOMO style. (me!)
If you took him anywhere after 1.2 then I'd say you were justified and will see a ROI this year.

Anyone after 1.2 didn't polarize (RB wise) Dobbins went 1.3, Swift 1.4, Akers went 1.5. All looked good (not great) and showed promise, but all have work to do. It's an open season. After this season is over we can start to really judge who was overrated.
In hindsight that's pretty easy to say. At the time of JT vs CEH I said that I'd rather have CEH, especially in PPR leagues, because JT will have to wait a year to develop behind Mack, and CEH would be used more in the passing game than JT, and was drafted to a high scoring offense.

Mack gets hurt and JT gets fed carries and runs behind one of the best lines in football, while CEH gets one of the worst O-lines due to multiple injuries and 2 starters who opt out due to covid. Nobody saw any of that coming.

The biggest shock to me is that JT is actually being useful in the passing game. I did not see this coming at any year of his career, let alone his first year. This alone raises his value to a whole new level for me. This is the best surprise for JT owners imo.

But was that because of Rivers? Will this continue with Wentz? I hope so. Watching JT get better in multiple phases of the game skyrockets his ceiling even higher than before.
ULTIMATE RB GURUs
2021 RB Injury Guru: abloom "Akers will suffer an ACL injury in the preseason and does not play during the season."
2021 RB Guru: qazxswedcvfrtgbnhyuj & McCafsteez -- Winners of the Antonio Gibson Wager!

REAL RB GURUs:
CubfanAA - Anteaters - Ice - JJRules - TheNuts - jtk1234 - Bronco Billy - YouMightDieTryin - hockeyBjj - honcho55 - murphysxm - Patsfan86 - jman3134

User avatar
murphysxm
Degenerate
Degenerate
Posts: 7614
Joined: Sun Jun 10, 2012 8:10 am

Re: Clyde Edwards-Helaire is your new 1.01

Postby murphysxm » Fri May 14, 2021 8:28 am

dlf_mikeh wrote: Fri May 14, 2021 8:17 am
But was that because of Rivers? Will this continue with Wentz? I hope so. Watching JT get better in multiple phases of the game skyrockets his ceiling even higher than before.
I see regression without Rivers
I am just a guy sharing some thoughts


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: BlackOmega, Silver Fox 74 and 39 guests