Clyde Edwards-Helaire is your new 1.01

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Re: Clyde Edwards-Helaire is your new 1.01

Postby jcc6fd » Wed May 12, 2021 8:10 pm

FWIW I Andy Reid and Brett Veach have come out and said they expect big things from CEH this year and that they believe the changes in the O-line will facilitate that. Whether you believe in their support of the player, their is a lot of truth in just how drastically different this O-line is from last year. If people have Cam Akers above CEH I'd be looking to acquire CEH at that price point.
10 Team Half PPR Scoring SF
QB: Mahomes, Hurts, Minshew
RB: Kamara, K. Hunt, Warren, Bigsby, D. Cook, Jamaal Williams, J. Wilson, McLaughlin, McKinnon, J. Kelley
WR: A.J. Brown, Diggs, K. Allen, C. Watson, Cooks, Pickens, W. Robinson
TE: Kelce, J. Smith, Musgrave

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Re: Clyde Edwards-Helaire is your new 1.01

Postby Ice » Thu May 13, 2021 6:47 am

jcc6fd wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 8:10 pm FWIW I Andy Reid and Brett Veach have come out and said they expect big things from CEH this year and that they believe the changes in the O-line will facilitate that. Whether you believe in their support of the player, their is a lot of truth in just how drastically different this O-line is from last year. If people have Cam Akers above CEH I'd be looking to acquire CEH at that price point.
Agreed.

Personally the entire redraft argument that those that selected CEH in dynasty whiffed is laughable at this point or at the very least way too premature. Then again the pound your chest I told you so crowd does come out way too early in fantasy.

This year should tell us who is tracking as the best players from last year's draft and are looking like the real winners. My early take is Herbert and Jefferson will be the best long term and no one took them in the top 2.
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Re: Clyde Edwards-Helaire is your new 1.01

Postby killer_of_giants » Thu May 13, 2021 7:08 am

i've been quite critical of helaire, but now he's dropping way too low and i'll try to get him. i also assumed they'd bring some competition (real competition, not mc-tired-legs-kinnon), they still might, but who would they get a this point? adrian peterson? the duke?

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Re: Clyde Edwards-Helaire is your new 1.01

Postby blemly » Thu May 13, 2021 8:03 am

killer_of_giants wrote: Thu May 13, 2021 7:08 am i've been quite critical of helaire, but now he's dropping way too low and i'll try to get him. i also assumed they'd bring some competition (real competition, not mc-tired-legs-kinnon), they still might, but who would they get a this point? adrian peterson? the duke?
The FA RB market is more or less decimated at this point. Best RB available is probably Todd Gurley, which means almost any RB will need to come via trade. Hard not to be a little bullish on CEH at this point.
Team 1: 12-team SF 0.5 PPR:
QB: Dak, Russ, Stafford, Geno, Dalton
RB: Harris, Gibson, Chubb, Cohen
WR: DK, Ridley, Kirk, Chark, Woods, C Samuel, Shepard, Reagor
TE: Fant, Knox
Team 2: 14-team PPR SF TEP:
QB: Wilson, Burrow, Geno, Foles
RB: Mixon, Gibson, Hines, Cohen, Pollard
WR: DJM, Cooper, Sutton, Deebo, R. Moore, ARSB, Eskridge, Renfrow
TE: Gesicki, Njoku, Arnold
Team 3: 12-team PPR SF:
QB: Watson, Lawrence, Winston, Cam
RB: Harris, Ekeler, Dobbins
WR: Hill, AJB, Woods, Chark, Lockett
TE: Gesicki, OJH, Firkser
Team 4: 12-team SF TEP Devy
QB: Wilson, Geno, Ryan, Cousins
RB: Zeke, Chubb, Sanders, Pollard, Hines, Cohen, Henderson
WR: Cooper, Godwin, Sutton, JuJu, Samuel, Fuller, Shepard, Campbell
TE: Fant, Gesicki, Ertz, Freiermuth
Devy: Boutte, Young, Slovis, Harris
Team 5: 12-team PPR SF:
QB: Dak, Lance, Jones, Cam
RB: Swift, Sanders, Dobbins, Pollard
WR: Sutton, DJM, Golladay, Chase, Pittman, Kirk, Campbell, Mims, Wallace
TE: Herndon, Gesicki, Freiermuth

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Re: Clyde Edwards-Helaire is your new 1.01

Postby MEuRaH » Thu May 13, 2021 8:09 am

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Re: Clyde Edwards-Helaire is your new 1.01

Postby Jigga94 » Thu May 13, 2021 8:12 am

I don't think anyone is calling him a bust. People love being dramatic. I guess it is May

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Re: Clyde Edwards-Helaire is your new 1.01

Postby jenkins.math » Thu May 13, 2021 9:15 am

Jigga94 wrote: Thu May 13, 2021 8:12 am I don't think anyone is calling him a bust. People love being dramatic. I guess it is May
There are a couple people saying that he was a "whiff" in terms of a pick on the previous page.

Has there ever been a rookie RB with over 1000 total yards that garnered this much disdain? I've seriously been thinking about this and I can't think of anybody who was treated in a similar manner.

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Re: Clyde Edwards-Helaire is your new 1.01

Postby jcc6fd » Thu May 13, 2021 10:02 am

jenkins.math wrote: Thu May 13, 2021 9:15 am
Jigga94 wrote: Thu May 13, 2021 8:12 am I don't think anyone is calling him a bust. People love being dramatic. I guess it is May
There are a couple people saying that he was a "whiff" in terms of a pick on the previous page.

Has there ever been a rookie RB with over 1000 total yards that garnered this much disdain? I've seriously been thinking about this and I can't think of anybody who was treated in a similar manner.
It’s a market over correction. He was valued as a top 5 dynasty asset preseason and when he didn’t live up to those unrealistic expectations he felt like a let down. Conversely, Cam Akers who had relatively low expectations and is theoretically set up to take a step forward so people are excited about him, even though CEH has a better situation and more proven production.
10 Team Half PPR Scoring SF
QB: Mahomes, Hurts, Minshew
RB: Kamara, K. Hunt, Warren, Bigsby, D. Cook, Jamaal Williams, J. Wilson, McLaughlin, McKinnon, J. Kelley
WR: A.J. Brown, Diggs, K. Allen, C. Watson, Cooks, Pickens, W. Robinson
TE: Kelce, J. Smith, Musgrave

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Re: Clyde Edwards-Helaire is your new 1.01

Postby SteveMaddensShoes » Thu May 13, 2021 10:04 am

jcc6fd wrote: Thu May 13, 2021 10:02 am
jenkins.math wrote: Thu May 13, 2021 9:15 am
Jigga94 wrote: Thu May 13, 2021 8:12 am I don't think anyone is calling him a bust. People love being dramatic. I guess it is May
There are a couple people saying that he was a "whiff" in terms of a pick on the previous page.

Has there ever been a rookie RB with over 1000 total yards that garnered this much disdain? I've seriously been thinking about this and I can't think of anybody who was treated in a similar manner.
It’s a market over correction. He was valued as a top 5 dynasty asset preseason and when he didn’t live up to those unrealistic expectations he felt like a let down. Conversely, Cam Akers who had relatively low expectations and is theoretically set up to take a step forward so people are excited about him, even though CEH has a better situation and more proven production.
This is a good analysis
TEAM 1 - 12 man SF. ppr, TEP 1.65 ppr

11 starters - QB, RB(2) WR(3) TE, SF, Flex(3)

Stroud, Kyler, Bryce Young, Anthony Richardson, Minshew, Trey Lance, Dalton l, Mike White

Breece, Achane, AJ Dillon, Justice Hill, Evan Hull, Chris Rodgriquez

Chase, Lamb, Waddle, Olave, London Drake, Demario Davis, Jake Bobo

Kyle Pitts, Mark Andrews, Kincaid, Schoonmaker

24 picks - 1x2, 3,4,5

Team 2-
12 man SF, .25ppc, .5ppr rbs, 1 ppr wr, 1.5 ppr TE

Joe Burrow, Trevor Lawerence, Jake Haehner, Jake Browning

JT, Kendre Miller,, K Ingram, Ty Chandler, Michael Carter, Kenny Macintosh, Sean Tucker

Puka, Rondale, Mooney, Wan’dale, Terrace Marshall, DPJ, Justyn Ross, Xavier Hutchinson,

Kyle Pitts, Luke Musgrave, Juwan Johnson, Darnell Washington, Jelani Woods, Elijah Higgins


24 - 1st x 3, 2nd x 2, 4th x 3 ,5

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Re: Clyde Edwards-Helaire is your new 1.01

Postby OhCruelestRanter » Thu May 13, 2021 10:05 am

jenkins.math wrote: Thu May 13, 2021 9:15 am
Jigga94 wrote: Thu May 13, 2021 8:12 am I don't think anyone is calling him a bust. People love being dramatic. I guess it is May
There are a couple people saying that he was a "whiff" in terms of a pick on the previous page.

Has there ever been a rookie RB with over 1000 total yards that garnered this much disdain? I've seriously been thinking about this and I can't think of anybody who was treated in a similar manner.
You guys can just quote me. At no point have I said he’s a bust. In that same post where I referred to people who overpaid for him last off-season whiffing, I talked about how I’ve been acquiring him this off-season. Again, I do not think Edwards-Helaire is a bust.

The community did whiff when Edwards-Helaire was propped all the way up to the startup 1.05 last off-season. If you bought at or around that price, when he can be had for demonstrably less than that now, you whiffed. There’s nothing wrong with that; we all whiff all the time. I was merely trying to explain why I think it happened this particular time.
Ice wrote: Thu May 13, 2021 6:47 amPersonally the entire redraft argument that those that selected CEH in dynasty whiffed is laughable at this point or at the very least way too premature.
I feel like I shouldn’t have to explain this, but the idea that you should acquire players when their value is artificially low and not when it’s artificially high is not a “redraft argument” but rather one of the most fundamental concepts to dynasty leagues. If you bought Edwards-Helaire last off-season*, when he was incredibly expensive, as opposed to this off-season, when he’s much too cheap, that’s…bad. Buy low… sell high. I don’t know how to make that any simpler.

*Unless you drafted Edwards-Helaire in a league that drafts before the NFL Draft, in which case you probably did great.
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Re: Clyde Edwards-Helaire is your new 1.01

Postby Sriracha » Thu May 13, 2021 10:34 am

OhCruelestRanter wrote: Thu May 13, 2021 10:05 am
Ice wrote: Thu May 13, 2021 6:47 amPersonally the entire redraft argument that those that selected CEH in dynasty whiffed is laughable at this point or at the very least way too premature.
I feel like I shouldn’t have to explain this, but the idea that you should acquire players when their value is artificially low and not when it’s artificially high is not a “redraft argument” but rather one of the most fundamental concepts to dynasty leagues. If you bought Edwards-Helaire last off-season*, when he was incredibly expensive, as opposed to this off-season, when he’s much too cheap, that’s…bad. Buy low… sell high. I don’t know how to make that any simpler.

*Unless you drafted Edwards-Helaire in a league that drafts before the NFL Draft, in which case you probably did great.
In which case, I hope you flipped him during his artificial hype train.

He ended up getting me Swift + Noah Fant in a TE premium league.

I still hesitate to value Edwards higher than his current startup ADP. There is some upside based on what many project to be an improved O-line, his 2nd year in the offense and his continued lack of true running back competition (depending on how you value McKinnon)... but I can't shake the feeling he could be 2020's version of Leonard Fournette -- a guy who was overhyped and gave you early returns because of his draft capital infused opportunity.. but won't last.

Hell, even the guy you're comping him too (Devonta Freeman) only really gave you 2 years of production.

I do expect his value to skyrocket this year -- I just don't see how the bellcow RB in this offense isn't going to be at least an RB1 -- which would make him a prime flip candidate for the next off-season... but I could see a lot of people left holding the bag with him in 2022 or 2023.

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Re: Clyde Edwards-Helaire is your new 1.01

Postby Jfever » Thu May 13, 2021 10:46 am

His involvement in this offense, being tied to Mahomes and Reid, his pass catching skills with an improved offensive line I think will have many of you re-evaluating things. In dynasty, a dash of patience is required. More patience than I beleive some here are putting on display. As an owner of CEH (after drafting him at 1.02 last year) - I would not trade him straight up for either of the top 2 running backs in this years draft. I'd consider moving him for Chase but it isn't a slam dunk there either depending on the league and starting requirements.

This has a little to do with how some hyped CEH up last year - I agree. But, rational and experianced owners do NOT flip flop that quickly. CEH is a very likely top 10 -15 fantasy scoring rb in ppr. That alone has value. I can't argue with the buy low, sell high, but - I will say that flip flopping on your opinions of players too quickly can also be a mistake.
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Re: Clyde Edwards-Helaire is your new 1.01

Postby OhCruelestRanter » Thu May 13, 2021 10:56 am

JFever wrote: Thu May 13, 2021 10:46 am His involvement in this offense, being tied to Mahomes and Reid, his pass catching skills with an improved offensive line I think will have many of you re-evaluating things. In dynasty, a dash of patience is required. More patience than I beleive some here are putting on display. As an owner of CEH (after drafting him at 1.02 last year) - I would not trade him straight up for either of the top 2 running backs in this years draft. I'd consider moving him for Chase but it isn't a slam dunk there either depending on the league and starting requirements.

This has a little to do with how some hyped CEH up last year - I agree. But, rational and experianced owners do NOT flip flop that quickly. CEH is a very likely top 10 -15 fantasy scoring rb in ppr. That alone has value. I can't argue with the buy low, sell high, but - I will say that flip flopping on your opinions of players too quickly can also be a mistake.
Is there a single person in this thread suggesting you should sell him? Honest question.

The last few pages are an unabashed dog-pile of how you should buy Edwards-Helaire now, something that only confirms my point that buying him last off-season was a mistake.
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Re: Clyde Edwards-Helaire is your new 1.01

Postby Ice » Thu May 13, 2021 11:01 am

SteveMaddensShoes wrote: Thu May 13, 2021 10:04 am
jcc6fd wrote: Thu May 13, 2021 10:02 am
jenkins.math wrote: Thu May 13, 2021 9:15 am

There are a couple people saying that he was a "whiff" in terms of a pick on the previous page.

Has there ever been a rookie RB with over 1000 total yards that garnered this much disdain? I've seriously been thinking about this and I can't think of anybody who was treated in a similar manner.
It’s a market over correction. He was valued as a top 5 dynasty asset preseason and when he didn’t live up to those unrealistic expectations he felt like a let down. Conversely, Cam Akers who had relatively low expectations and is theoretically set up to take a step forward so people are excited about him, even though CEH has a better situation and more proven production.
This is a good analysis
Top 5 Rookie Pick I would buy.

Top 5 dynasty asset is a reach.

This site has been all over the map between Swift, Dobbins, CEH, and the god of all RB's throughout the history of organized football. :D
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Re: Clyde Edwards-Helaire is your new 1.01

Postby OhCruelestRanter » Thu May 13, 2021 11:08 am

Ice wrote: Thu May 13, 2021 11:01 am
Top 5 Rookie Pick I would buy.

Top 5 dynasty asset is a reach.

This site has been all over the map between Swift, Dobbins, CEH, and the god of all RB's throughout the history of organized football. :D
Respectfully, this is demonstrably wrong.

http://mizelle.net/mfl/2020/

Startup 1.05 from August-November 2020. Check for yourself.
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