Clyde Edwards-Helaire is your new 1.01

[StripesOfKC]

This thread reminds me of the JT thread 4 or 5 weeks ago.

CEH owners just waiting for one big week to think they've actually got a stud rb? That's all I see in the JT thread.

He has been steadily improving for a few weeks now

[notweswelker]

He has been steadily improving for a few weeks now

Which overrated rookie rb are you talking about? JT or CEH?

[StripesOfKC]

He has been steadily improving for a few weeks now

Which overrated rookie rb are you talking about? JT or CEH?

Taylor

Went from his rock bottom in week 10 and steadily improved for three weeks in a row

I guess if you want him to suck and think he sucks no performance will change your mind--and that's your right, but you are actively misrepresenting facts by saying he had "one good week"

[AussieMate]

He has been steadily improving for a few weeks now

Which overrated rookie rb are you talking about? JT or CEH?

Taylor

Went from his rock bottom in week 10 and steadily improved for three weeks in a row

I guess if you want him to suck and think he sucks no performance will change your mind--and that's your right, but you are actively misrepresenting facts by saying he had "one good week"

CEH, Taylor, and Akers haha, all 3 have looked better recently.

[steelman]

At no point has CEH looked back. He passes the eye test when you watch him play. KC just doesn't run the ball much and it's working for them so I don't see it changing.

CEH will be on my bench the rest of the season no matter what. His floor is too low right now to trust in the playoffs.

[notweswelker]

Taylor

Went from his rock bottom in week 10 and steadily improved for three weeks in a row

I guess if you want him to suck and think he sucks no performance will change your mind--and that's your right, but you are actively misrepresenting facts by saying he had "one good week"

In reality I like them both, but I gotta have some fun while I can before the true breakouts come.
The biggest issue with JT (in my mind) has been his usage, he should have been utilized as a workhorse out of the gate, maybe some tandem work with Hines as they're both great receivers. Instead Reich is playing his little mindgames trying to get the rookie to earn it.

[Krypto_King]

At no point has CEH looked back. He passes the eye test when you watch him play. KC just doesn't run the ball much and it's working for them so I don't see it changing.

CEH will be on my bench the rest of the season no matter what. His floor is too low right now to trust in the playoffs.

Devin Singletary doesn't look bad either but I don't want him as a top 20 startup pick

[timeEd32]

I still don't know how much to take from these, but his next gen stats (RYOE, etc.) are ugly.

Mind sharing?

Here's a look at the rookie class. Including some other notables for context...

Rush Yards Over Expected (RYOE)

Chubb: 292
Sanders: 97
Dobbins: 76
JT: 60
JRob: 58
Gibson: 55
Kamara: 36
Akers: 33
Swift: 22
Zeke: -15
Moss: -29
Kelley: -58
CEH: -59

The only players below CEH: Gore, Duke, Gurley, and Peterson.

RYOE / attempt
Chubb: 1.98
Dobbins: 0.80
Gibson: 0.39
JT: 0.37
Akers: 0.31
Swift: 0.28
JRob: 0.27
CEH: -0.35
Moss: -0.36
Kelley: -0.54
Duke: -0.87 (last)

The full list and additional stats are here: https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/rushing#ryoeAtt

[CGW]

I still don't know how much to take from these, but his next gen stats (RYOE, etc.) are ugly.

Mind sharing?

Here's a look at the rookie class. Including some other notables for context...

Rush Yards Over Expected (RYOE)

Chubb: 292
Sanders: 97
Dobbins: 76
JT: 60
JRob: 58
Gibson: 55
Kamara: 36
Akers: 33
Swift: 22
Zeke: -15
Moss: -29
Kelley: -58
CEH: -59

The only players below CEH: Gore, Duke, Gurley, and Peterson.

RYOE / attempt
Chubb: 1.98
Dobbins: 0.80
Gibson: 0.39
JT: 0.37
Akers: 0.31
Swift: 0.28
JRob: 0.27
CEH: -0.35
Moss: -0.36
Kelley: -0.54
Duke: -0.87 (last)

The full list and additional stats are here: https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/rushing#ryoeAtt

It's interesting JT is close to the top of the list. A few weeks back he was touted as a bottom dweller on this list. I wonder who makes the determination for "expected."

[timeEd32]

These numbers are generated by a machine learning model that uses a lot of the advanced data the NFL now generates on every play.

Singer and Gordeev built a 2D convolutional neural network based on the relative location, speed and acceleration features of every player on the field at the moment of handoff. Singer and Gordeev's elegant solution was rooted in the fusion of their advanced understanding of deep learning and the simplification of a complex problem. Here is how Gordeev explained it on the 2020 Big Data Bowl discussion board on Kaggle, the web-based community of data scientists that hosted the competition with the NFL:

"If we focus on the rusher and remove other [offensive] team players, it looks like a simple game where one player tries to run away and 11 others try to catch him. We assume that as soon as the rushing play starts, every defender, regardless of the position, will focus on stopping the rusher ASAP, and every defender has a chance to do it. The chances of a defender to tackle the rusher (as well as estimated location of the tackle) depend on their relative location, speed and direction of movements."

You can read about it in more detail here: https://www.nfl.com/news/next-gen-stats ... hing-yards

[hoos89]

Yeah I think all these black box stats should be taken with a grain of salt. CEH was having a really solid rookie season for the first half of the year. Then after the Chiefs signed Bell they went away from the run. I think he's still a good player, and he's looked very good at times this season. Don't think the Singletary comp is warranted.

[Cameron Giles]

Yeah I think all these black box stats should be taken with a grain of salt. CEH was having a really solid rookie season for the first half of the year. Then after the Chiefs signed Bell they went away from the run. I think he's still a good player, and he's looked very good at times this season. Don't think the Singletary comp is warranted.

If he wasn't on the Chiefs, that's about what he would be. So much of the value is the offense he's playing in, and despite that he hasn't really looked better than other RBs.

Granted, I do think he can do a lot more if the Chiefs actually cared about running the ball. I don't get using a first on an RB and giving him 10 carries.

[jenkins.math]

The CEH thread just seems to have become a cesspool of people thumping their chest that he didn't live up to the hype instead of just evaluating him. The expectations were so out of whack that anybody disappointed didn't do their homework. Kareem Hunt really skewed everyone's opinions on Andy Reid and his usage of rookie RBs. Reid didn't use Brian Westbrook or Shady McCoy very much as rookies before seeing sizable jumps in usage in year 2. Andy Reid also has a maddening history of abandoning the run at times and he was heavily criticized for it for over a decade until he won a Super Bowl last year.

So why are people shocked with whats going on here? We have 2 decades of Andy Reid evidence to suggest this is exactly how this would go.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

CEH had 25 carries in his first game. Not sure that supports your theory that Reid doesn’t want to use CEH because he’s a rookie

[Mike11]

He was drafted as a borderline 20 year old and has 1k all purpose yards with 5 total TDs. That's not too shabby for your rookie year even thought it's not a top 5 RB on the season. This is a good buy window to me, I wouldn't be looking to sell him. I think it's a safe assumption his usage is more likely to go up then down and he's done well with the usage he has. The KC line hasn't been very good for the run this year either due to injuries.