2020 Rookie Synopsis - The Wide Receivers

[Ghosted]

I'm back again to post my pointless wide receiver rankings to give people something to look over to kill the time. I was unable to get this out last year. My wife and I had twins, and no one told us that we would have zero time to ourselves after that. I did post a pre-combine rankings list for 2018 though - you can find it here if you get bored: viewtopic.php?f=5&t=155015&hilit=rookie+synopsis

Haven't been on this site much in a long time, but I figured I'd at least drop by to post this. I had a lot of fun with this class, as I'm sure you all did, as well. Here it is:

TIER 1

1) Jerry Juedy 6'1 195
College Dominator: 36th
YPR: 81st
Target Share: 64th
Breakout age: 82nd

Games studied: LSU, Auburn, Michigan, South Carolina

What I liked: Juedy holds the highest grade I've placed on a receiver since Julio/Green entered the league, and he is my overall 1.1 in this loaded class. His route precision is unrivaled. He ran multiple route concepts to destroy man, press and bracket coverage. Incredibly smooth and effortless. Doesn't get pressed and rarely faced physical coverage due to his ability to create separation. Wins at all 3 levels. Incredibly safe prospect who also has top 5 upside.

What I didn't like: If Juedy had issues, it usually surrounded his technique catching the ball. Isn't as natural as some of his peers, and lets the ball work into his body too often. Also had occasional concentration drops. Could be limited as a redzone weapon due to the fact that he isn't strong at the catch-point and doesn't possess elite size.

Bust potential: Very Low
Comp: Amari Cooper

2) CeeDee Lamb 6'2 198
College Dominator: 77th
YPR: 96th
Target Share: 61st
Breakout age: 81st

Games studied: LSU, Texas, Baylor, Alabama (18)

What I liked: Lamb also received a very high grade, and would typically be the WR1 in most classes. I would not disagree with anyone who had him as their WR1. Lamb is an intermediate area monster who displays great physicality and an alpha mentality. Ripped LSU, who tried multiple ways to slow him down. Beat Stingley and Fulton consistently. Strong hands and can dominate after the catch. Shows up in big games. Absolute gamer.

What I didn't like: Despite Lamb's absurd YPR rating, I have questions regarding his ability to win consistently in the 3rd level against NFL defenses. If so, his overall fantasy upside takes a slight hit. Did not run a full route tree in Riley's system, but obviously has the potential to develop there.

Bust potential: Very Low
Comp: DeAndre Hopkins/Sammy Watkins (post-catch)

TIER 2

3) Michael Pittman 6'4 225
College Dominator: 60th
YPR: 63rd
Target Share: 69th
Breakout age: 39th

Games studied: Utah, BYU, Colorado

What I liked: Every year, it seems like a prospect I had fairly low expectations for 'wows' me after I watch film of them. This year, that was Michael Pittman. Pittman has one elite trait, but it's a good one - he has some of the strongest hands I've ever studied. This allows Pittman to win at the 3rd level, especially when combined with his above-average body control. Pittman also creates NFL level separation in the short and intermediate area with easy hip fluidity and good route acumen. His release is strong when he uses his foot jabs. Pittman is about as safe as they come as an NFL Y receiver.

What I didn't like: Pittman's debilitating weakness is his ability after the catch, as far too often he goes down on first contact for a player his size. Pittman's upside can also be questioned, as I believe he's going to have to go to the perfect offense to be a difference maker in fantasy - somewhere where he can hold a large amount of target share due to the fact that he's primarily going to be a chain-mover type of receiver.

Bust potential: Low
Comp: Michael Thomas

4) Jalen Reagor 5'11 206
College Dominator: 73rd
YPR: 47th
Target Share: 93rd
Breakout age: 95th

Games studied: OK ST, OH ST (18), Texas

What I liked: Reagor was an interesting film study, and if I saw more consistency from him, he's easily my WR3 in this class in a tier of his own. Put on the 2018 tape, and he's a different player, and much more consistent than '19. Overall, he creates good separation with his footwork (jabs and pressure cuts). Great at tracking the ball down the field and is exceptional at using his body at the catch-point. Absolute slant-and-go monster. Fluid, natural athlete. Another WR from this class that wins at all 3 levels. Got some of the worst QB play in his class and still found ways to take over games. Unstoppable when he's on. Broke out as an 18 year old.

What I didn't like: Reagor basically runs 3 routes: Drag, slant, post. I remember grading Corey Coleman highly in his class, but having one note circled in bold: CAN HE RUN ROUTES? I believed with his insane athleticism, learning how to would be no problem for him once he got out of Baylor's system. I have similar concerns with Reagor to a smaller degree.

Bust potential: Moderate
Comp: DJ Moore/Corey Coleman


5) Justin Jefferson 6'1 202
College Dominator: 51st
YPR: 56th
Target Share: 47th
Breakout age: 74th

Games studied: Georgia, Texas, Auburn

What I liked: Jefferson is another ultra-safe prospect from this class. Glider as a runner with deceptive speed who eats up ground in a hurry. Makes good adjustments when tracking the ball. Good enough route-runner who thrives in the intermediate area of the field. Fits better in todays NFL as a big slot receiver. Strong hands and works well in the redzone. Shields defenders well when working off of the stem.

What I didn't like: Jefferson lined up 99% of the time from the slot, playing next to perhaps the nation's best WR in Chase and another good flanker receiver in Marshall. I came away really impressed with how Brady deployed him, often scheming mismatches in the middle of the field (similar to how the Rams use Cooper Kupp against LB's). Jefferson obtains marginal separation and rounds off too many of his routes. Questionable ability to thrive on the outside; not sure if he can win at the 3rd level consistently. High floor/marginal ceiling.

Bust potential: Low
Player comp: Tyler Boyd

TIER 3

6) Brandon Aiyuk 6'0 205
College Dominator: 82nd
YPR: 87th
Target Share: 70th
Breakout age: 26th

Games studied: OR ST, USC, MICH ST

What I liked: Aiyuk is a really projectible receiver, thanks to a multifaceted game predicated on athleticism. Aiyuk typically wins with suddenness and agility at the stem of his routes, and also displays good footwork to uncover off of the line. Aiyuk took over once N'Keal Harry departed and began to dominate football games, including high level special teams play. Aiyuk shows all of the attributes that would lead to him being an explosive route-runner. A 3 level player.

What I didn't like: Aiyuk still has a little ways to go to develop as a route-runner, and can be taken out of his routes with physical corner play. Doesn't handle press coverage well. Can get lazy with some routes when he isn't the primary read. Displayed limited ways to win in the redzone once the inside slant was taken away.

Bust potential: Moderate/Low
Player comp: Stephon Diggs

7) Denzel Mims 6'3 207
College Dominator: 86th
YPR: 61st
Target Share: 13th
Breakout age: 67th

Games studied: Texas, Oklahoma, Georgia

What I liked: Mims might just be the most polarizing prospect in this draft. He obviously helped himself immensely during the pre-draft process, but what did the tape show? Mims is an athletic freak, and it showed on film. Mims is a big, powerful runner, who creates easy 3rd level separation. Primarily ran the drag, hitch and go, and at times, dominated at each. Possesses a higher ceiling than most in this class. Attacks the ball at the catch-point. Agile enough with the ball in his hands to be a YAC threat.

What I didn't like: Mims is raw. Very raw. Even if he never develops, he has plenty of game to be an asset as a down field weapon. To become an elite-level player, he will have to work on his route acumen. Mims shows limited understanding of route concepts and displays an inconsistent release from the line of scrimmage (an area he should dominate). Mims also is not a natural pass catcher and showed plenty of mental lapses.

Bust potential: Moderate/High
Player comp: DK Metcalf

8) Henry Ruggs 5'11 188
College Dominator: 17th
YPR: 83rd
Target Share: 13th
Breakout age: n/a

Games studied: LSU, Auburn, South Carolina

What I liked: The obvious asset to Ruggs' game is his elite-level speed. Ruggs will be an obvious difference maker in the NFL from a scheme perspective, but that doesn't score fantasy points. Ruggs' draft capital will be valuable though, and it will help him separate from his peers in the post-draft process. Ruggs is an exceptional weapon when used on posts and drags and allow him to use his skillset. He's more physical than you might think, and he has good hands and is more than capable of adjusting to poor throws and back shoulder fades. Can destroy teams that don't bracket him, especially in the middle of the field.

What I didn't like: Ruggs' route-running has been talked up during this process, but I personally wasn't a fan of what I saw. Ruggs is typically given a large amount of built-in separation from college secondary's, but when he's challenged in the 2nd level, he can get bullied. Ruggs also rounds off too many of his routes. When paired with an good/elite college corner, Ruggs disappeared too often and failed to uncover. Ruggs will need to work on these things to generate enough targets to be an asset. Low ceiling redzone threat.

Bust potential: Moderate
Player comp: Stronger John Ross

9) KJ Hamler 5'11 178
College Dominator: 56th
YPR: 71st
Target Share: 65th
Breakout age: 87th

Games studied: Michigan, Minnesota, OH ST

What I liked: Take draft capital out of the equation, and I might prefer Hamler as a fantasy prospect to Ruggs. Hamler displays elite agility and solid footwork, and walks in the door as a good route-runner. Hamler forces defenders off of the line with his speed, and attacks them at the stem to take advantage of that. Hamler shows good footwork release, and possesses obvious make-you-miss ability post-catch. Broke out right away at Penn St.

What I didn't like: Hamler's QB play was questionable, but he dropped far too many passes. While he's explosive against man coverage, he shows limited understanding against zone and can get lost when sitting down on his routes. Not physical at the catch-point and provides nothing in the run game. Penn St. hid him in the slot in their system, so he rarely played on the LOS. Displayed a limited route tree.

Bust potential: Moderate
Player comp: Tyreek Hill

10) Chase Claypool 6'4 238
College Dominator: 63rd
YPR: 64th
Target Share: 80th
Breakout age: 33rd

Games studied: Georgia, VT, Virginia

What I liked: There has been talk that Claypool should settle in as a TE in the NFL, but I don't buy that. Claypool wins in a variety of ways that suggest that he could be a field-stretching X receiver. Claypool is not just big and fast, but he uses his size well by setting up defenders at the stem and shielding them using his size advantage. Runs the go and hitch routes well and is a powerful separator down the field. Claypool is tough to bring down after the catch when he gets up to speed. Claypool displays good hands and is a fairly natural pass catcher. Excellent boundary receiver.

What I didn't like: System fit will be important with Claypool. His size, while an advantage in some areas, makes it difficult for him in others. Claypool has difficulty sinking his hips at the stem of his routes, limiting his aptitude in that area. He can also take too many unnecessary steps, limiting his effectiveness when he tries to be sudden. When he breaks off of the post, Claypool can round his routes too often. If married to the right QB, a lot of these concerns will be mitigated.

Bust potential: Moderate
Player comp: Vincent Jackson

11) Tee Higgins 6'4 216
College Dominator: 50th
YPR: 93rd
Target Share: 23rd
Breakout age: 96th

Games studied: OH ST, Georgia Tech, South Carolina, LSU

What I liked: Higgins was good immediately as soon as he laced up for Clemson, and he fits their system perfectly. He profiles as almost a perfect NFL number 2 receiver. We know he can win downfield, and I'm not concerned about his testing numbers. Higgins attacks the ball and shields defenders well. Higgins possesses good body lean/control and eats up ground downfield in a hurry. Defeats press coverage well with strength and good hand technique. Tough receiver who is a good redzone weapon.

What I didn't like: Higgins is exceptional at the 3rd level of the field, but he struggles to do enough elsewhere. Keeps post defenders honest while working hitch routes, but otherwise is a limited route-runner with stiff movement. Lack of agility is a major concern. Clemson restricted his route concepts to post, hitch and screens. Will he do enough well in the NFL to be productive for fantasy purposes?

Bust potential: Moderate
Player comp: Mike Williams

TIER 4

12) Laviska Shenault 6'1 227
College Dominator: 68th
YPR: 23rd
Target Share: 68th
Breakout age: 66th

Games studied: Oregon, Nebraska, USC

What I liked: Powerful athlete, unrefined football player. We've seen this before. Throw in the injury concerns, and there's plenty of question marks. Aside from that, there's a lot to like here. A player like Shenault being this far down the board tells you much more about the depth of this special class. Shenault can win at any level of the field, due to his speed/power combo. Big and agile in space, he can be a dominate YAC player who is tough to bring down after the catch. Releases well off of the line and is a formidable RZ threat.

What I didn't like: Another raw player from this class, Shenault can rely on his athleticism too much, and is inconsistent with his routes and can be slow through progression. Scheme dependent with a low floor. Good candidate to be cheaper after year 1, as he will probably be slow to develop. Is he only a gadget player, or will he develop in the critical areas needed to demand viable target share?

Bust potential: High
Player comp: Kevin White/Cordarrelle Patterson

13) Bryan Edwards 6'3 212
College Dominator: 94th
YPR: 11th
Target Share: 65th
Breakout age: 100th

Games studied: Alabama, Mizzu, Georgia

What I liked: Edwards has been a devy darling ever since he broke out as a 17 year old, and it almost feels criminal to have him as low as 13 on a rankings list. So what gives? There is plenty to like here. Edwards is explosive, there's no denying that. Don't pay too much attention to his YPR - he suffered from brutal QB play and SC had to get creative with finding ways to get him the ball. When he's on, Edwards is a great player in the intermediate area of the field, where he separates best from defenders. Good player after the catch.

What I didn't like: For someone who makes his living destroying defenders with his footwork, I really expected to see more with how Edwards was setting up defenders at the mesh point of his routes. Too often, Edwards uses poor footwork and doesn't uncover well enough and the second or 3rd level. Edwards also doesn't handle physical coverage well, and can get re-routed. Nice complementary weapon. It will be interesting to see what Edwards does with better QB plays. Has the potential to pay big dividends.

Bust potential: Moderate/low
Player comp: Jordan Matthews

14th) Donovan Peoples-Jones 6'2 212
College Dominator: 36th
YPR: 26th
Target Share: 28th
Breakout age: 77th

Games studied: OH ST (18), Indiana, Wisconsin (18)

What I liked: It's obvious that DPJ is a premium athlete, but what else is he? Well, he did look fairly comfortable in the slot. DPJ snaps off his routes from there well and sells them with good head fakes and footwork. When he's on, he's a fairly devastating slot weapon who can be used in a variety of ways. He also has a potent release off of the line when his technique is good, allowing him to line up all over the field.

What I didn't like: Still more athlete than football player, DPJ's development stalled after being hyped as a freshman. He still displays poor route fundamentals when progressing through the 2nd and 3rd levels of the field. Also, given his athleticism, I was expecting to see a better YAC player in space, but he was pretty limited in this area, as well. Another development project, but I like his ceiling in the right system. Has potential to be a dynamic big slot receiver if all goes well and the marriage is perfect. However, there's a long way still to go here.

Bust potential: High
Player comp: Jalen Strong (playerprofiler)

15) Tyler Johnson 6'3 206
College Dominator: 98th
YPR: 82nd
Target Share: 96th
Breakout age: 90th

Games studied: Purdue, Wisconsin, Iowa

What I liked: Johnson is the type of receiver who you think would have a long NFL career. He's big, physical and productive. Johnson shows a good understanding of route concepts in the short and intermediate area, and while he struggles to win in the 3rd level with athleticism alone, he manages to compete with good body control and hand placement. Displayed a full route tree and has been a strong player in the B10 for his entire career. Johnson shows good footwork off of the line. Tough player.

What I didn't like: Sub-average athlete with a limited ceiling. Poor agility and deep speed. Needs to further develop route acumen to beat NFL corners, which is questionable given how good he already is in that area. The NFL has spoken loudly about how they few him with lack of pre-draft invites, and he declined to participate in the combine. A player that I liked on film, but am declining to move up until I see where he's drafted.

Bust potential: High
Player comp: Laquon Treadwell

[kadun2]

Thanks for posting

[zeeshan2]

thank you for doing this; this is great!

[OhCruelestRanter]

Wow, really detailed and thorough.

[Bronco Billy]

Holy moly. Well done sir!

[Jigga94]

Love it!! Surprised to see Pittman at 3, but I love the different take. I also saw some things I liked with him but never jumped him into the 2nd tier.

[FantasyFreak]

Thanks for sharing. One thing I noticed, is the games you studied seem to be their better games. Pittman, for instance, it was basically his 3 best games. From what I have learned through people who are much better and reputable than I, is it's a good idea to choose down games as well, to get a better assessment and a more accurate view of their strengths and weakness. Since you're putting so much effort into it, just thought I'd pass that piece of advice along from some of the more reputable people I've listened to.

[cantguardjake]

This is a fantastic write up, I agree with pretty much everything except being a little lower on Raegor and Pittman - however am coming around a little on Pittman now but still have him outside my top 5.

Even the player comps are spot on, first time I watched Shenault I said to myself “reminds me of Kevin White”.

What are your thoughts on AGG? I was relatively high on him until his combine but have dropped him down a touch now, but would still rather take a flier on him over probably Brian Edwards and Tyler Johnson pending draft capital. Like you I love Johnson on film but it’s hard to ignore the NFL noise.

[Ghosted]

Thanks for sharing. One thing I noticed, is the games you studied seem to be their better games. Pittman, for instance, it was basically his 3 best games. From what I have learned through people who are much better and reputable than I, is it's a good idea to choose down games as well, to get a better assessment and a more accurate view of their strengths and weakness. Since you're putting so much effort into it, just thought I'd pass that piece of advice along from some of the more reputable people I've listened to.

Thanks for the feedback, man. To be honest, I didn't pick the games and I didn't look at box scores. They kind of picked me by being next in my YouTube queue, or if the film was all-22 I'd typically jump on it. I just don't have as much time as I used to to cover 6-7 games per player multiple times. And film seemed harder to find since draft breakdown went away. But I'll think about it for next year for sure.

[cantguardjake]

One thing I noticed about this class as a whole is they all seem to struggle with press release from the line of scrimmage (outside of Jeudy). I usually read all of Lance Zierlein’s evaluations on NFL.com and noticed he actually makes the same comment on near every prospect as well.

AGG has the best release after Jeudy for mine and is one of the few who is actually physical off the line (his favourite is the hand over “swim” which is quite effective), just a shame about the 40 time and 3 cone.

[Hottoddies]

Nice work here, Ghosted. I thought most of the player comps were spot on. Thanks for your efforts.

[Ghosted]

This is a fantastic write up, I agree with pretty much everything except being a little lower on Raegor and Pittman - however am coming around a little on Pittman now but still have him outside my top 5.

Even the player comps are spot on, first time I watched Shenault I said to myself “reminds me of Kevin White”.

What are your thoughts on AGG? I was relatively high on him until his combine but have dropped him down a touch now, but would still rather take a flier on him over probably Brian Edwards and Tyler Johnson pending draft capital. Like you I love Johnson on film but it’s hard to ignore the NFL noise.

There's a few guys I ran out of time with, and he and Bowden are two of them. I'm waiting to see where the NFL values them before doing a second round of evaluations and film.

[Ghosted]

Thanks for the kind words, guys.

[cantguardjake]

This is a fantastic write up, I agree with pretty much everything except being a little lower on Raegor and Pittman - however am coming around a little on Pittman now but still have him outside my top 5.

Even the player comps are spot on, first time I watched Shenault I said to myself “reminds me of Kevin White”.

What are your thoughts on AGG? I was relatively high on him until his combine but have dropped him down a touch now, but would still rather take a flier on him over probably Brian Edwards and Tyler Johnson pending draft capital. Like you I love Johnson on film but it’s hard to ignore the NFL noise.

There's a few guys I ran out of time with, and he and Bowden are two of them. I'm waiting to see where the NFL values them before doing a second round of evaluations and film.

AGGs Syracuse film is great. I don’t think you’ll rate Bowden all that much to be honest.

[FantasyFreak]

Thanks for sharing. One thing I noticed, is the games you studied seem to be their better games. Pittman, for instance, it was basically his 3 best games. From what I have learned through people who are much better and reputable than I, is it's a good idea to choose down games as well, to get a better assessment and a more accurate view of their strengths and weakness. Since you're putting so much effort into it, just thought I'd pass that piece of advice along from some of the more reputable people I've listened to.

Thanks for the feedback, man. To be honest, I didn't pick the games and I didn't look at box scores. , or if the film was all-22 I'd typically jump on it. I just don't have as much time as I used to to cover 6-7 games per player multiple times. And film seemed harder to find since draft breakdown went away. But I'll think about it for next year for sure.

For sure. One thing I've heard as a suggestion is to go look at their game logs, and specifically choose some good box scores and bad ones, to get the contrast. I should have mentioned that originally. Guys that do this a lot more than I do have mentioned that as a good practice.