2020 Rookie Synopsis - The Wide Receivers

[Csl312]

If he just would've got taken 20 picks earlier on a team that isn't the Jets I wouldn't have issues making this choice.

This made me chuckle a little bit. Those are big ifs! But it sounds like he's your guy so you shouldn't feel bad taking him if you feel strongly about it. If you think you can trade down and likely grab both of these guys then by all means that sounds like a good plan.

[CL3VELANDBR0WNS]

Anyone out there have Mims and Pittman ahead of Jeudy, Ruggs, & Reagor?
I'm in a weird predicament picking 9 in one league but I think the board will fall in a way that all these options will be available to me. If Jefferson slips through the cracks I would smash the mouse there.

My hang-up with Jeudy is that I have trouble seeing a path to touches, especially if a giant Sutton ascension really is happening. Feel like Ruggs is even worse in a likely run heavy offense with numerous other options with the same skill set. I think that the targets will be there for Reagor but I always have trouble taking a player that tiny with a top 10 pick amongst other concerns. I don't think he will straight up suck in the box score because the touches will be there but I don't know if he has top 15 WR upside.

I have questions about Pittman with his late breakout but he did play well during his final 2 seasons and the size/speed profile is tremendous. I have little to no concerns about Mims and feel similar about him as I did with Godwin a few years ago. If he just would've got taken 20 picks earlier on a team that isn't the Jets I wouldn't have issues making this choice.

I could try to trade up and get one of the two guys I feel is a sure thing or I could try to trade down and throw darts at both Pittman & Mims. Anyone else having mid-late 1st round headaches?

I have Pittman and Mims ahead of Reagor and Ruggs, but not Jeudy. The Sutton ascension is going to hit a wall with the Shurmur led offense and Lock throwing passes. If you look at the games where Lock started, Sutton was on pace for just under 900 yards over a full season. DaeSean Hamilton was the big beneficiary (average per game went from almost nothing to around 40 yards per game) and he played the slot. I anticipate Shurmur continuing that trend and leaning on his slot guy as he has at most of his previous stops (see Theilen, JMatt & Amendola) and Jeudy is miles ahead of Hamilton in terms of skill so I expect a fairly significant improvement on Hamilton’s numbers.

Interesting.....so it comes down more to how much you trust Drew Lock. Think Pittman will be a big RZ guy in year 1 but I don't know how often the Colts are going to lean on the pass so that is a concern for an older prospect who you'd like to see go off right away. I think Mims has it all as Gase hates his starting running back and there is almost no competition on the outside. It could be the ultimate trap though at least until Gase gets canned. Tough decision but you definitely make a good case for some sort of immediate role for Jeudy. I'm both win-now and tend to draft based on what I think the trade value will be a year from now even in a "rebuild".

[jcc6fd]

This analysis was very helpful, thank you for the time and effort.

I'm picking 1.08 and will likely have my choice of Reagor/Jefferson, of which I was already leaning Reagor but was intrigued by Jefferson's measurables. Was surprised based on his speed that he mainly played slot. Is his slot role in college what makes you say you don't think he will win at the 3rd level consistently? He showed 4.43 speed at the combine so I'm questioning why he couldn't play outside and win downfield.

[Ghosted]

This analysis was very helpful, thank you for the time and effort.

I'm picking 1.08 and will likely have my choice of Reagor/Jefferson, of which I was already leaning Reagor but was intrigued by Jefferson's measurables. Was surprised based on his speed that he mainly played slot. Is his slot role in college what makes you say you don't think he will win at the 3rd level consistently? He showed 4.43 speed at the combine so I'm questioning why he couldn't play outside and win downfield.

His times at the combine showed he's got an athletic profile, for sure. I just didn't see enough suddenness or explosiveness in his routes. Think Cosell described him best when he described him as a one-speed receiver. Plays perfect for what he was asked to do, but I have concerns regarding how he'll set-up perimeter defenders vs man coverage on the outside. Most of his damage came in the interior when schemed up to take advantage of major coverage mismatches. Too much projection for my liking, but that's just my opinion.

I will say that Harmon said recently that he thought Jefferson could play on the outside, and he's much better at this than I am.

[Ghosted]

This analysis was very helpful, thank you for the time and effort.

I'm picking 1.08 and will likely have my choice of Reagor/Jefferson, of which I was already leaning Reagor but was intrigued by Jefferson's measurables. Was surprised based on his speed that he mainly played slot. Is his slot role in college what makes you say you don't think he will win at the 3rd level consistently? He showed 4.43 speed at the combine so I'm questioning why he couldn't play outside and win downfield.

His times at the combine showed he's got an athletic profile, for sure. I just didn't see enough suddenness or explosiveness in his routes. Think Cosell described him best when he described him as a one-speed receiver. Plays perfect for what he was asked to do, but I have concerns regarding how he'll set-up perimeter defenders vs man coverage on the outside. Most of his damage came in the interior when schemed up to take advantage of major coverage mismatches. Too much projection for my liking, but that's just my opinion.

I will say that Harmon said recently that he thought Jefferson could play on the outside, and he's much better at this than I am.

And as an aside, my top 5 post-draft didn't change. I really like Jefferson. He's in my tier 2, right there with Pittman and Reagor. He'll gobble up targets and be effective in the RZ. I don't think his ability to win at the 3rd level will be prohibitive to fantasy success. If he is it'll be more of a bonus to me. Really safe player imho.

[jcc6fd]

This analysis was very helpful, thank you for the time and effort.

I'm picking 1.08 and will likely have my choice of Reagor/Jefferson, of which I was already leaning Reagor but was intrigued by Jefferson's measurables. Was surprised based on his speed that he mainly played slot. Is his slot role in college what makes you say you don't think he will win at the 3rd level consistently? He showed 4.43 speed at the combine so I'm questioning why he couldn't play outside and win downfield.

His times at the combine showed he's got an athletic profile, for sure. I just didn't see enough suddenness or explosiveness in his routes. Think Cosell described him best when he described him as a one-speed receiver. Plays perfect for what he was asked to do, but I have concerns regarding how he'll set-up perimeter defenders vs man coverage on the outside. Most of his damage came in the interior when schemed up to take advantage of major coverage mismatches. Too much projection for my liking, but that's just my opinion.

I will say that Harmon said recently that he thought Jefferson could play on the outside, and he's much better at this than I am.

And as an aside, my top 5 post-draft didn't change. I really like Jefferson. He's in my tier 2, right there with Pittman and Reagor. He'll gobble up targets and be effective in the RZ. I don't think his ability to win at the 3rd level will be prohibitive to fantasy success. If he is it'll be more of a bonus to me. Really safe player imho.

I was thinking the same thing. That Jefferson appears like a high floor guy and in Minnesota long term could be a great fit as a Theilen successor.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Nice writeup. To comment on the Reagor/Coleman thing, maybe as body type and athletes they are similar but not really as football players imo. I think there are a few key differences;
I believe Reagor is a much better route runner.
Reagor is a hands catcher whereas Coleman was a body catcher.
Coleman was hesitant to block even when the play was to his side.

I think it is quite hard to find a comp for Reagor, which is why someone else mentioned OBJ. I don't think Coleman nor OBJ are accurate, but I think he's closer to the OBJ side. Maybe a Steve Smith type is a more apt comp for Reagor.

Reagor and Jefferson are very close in adp but I took Reagor in my leagues. Just seemed like the more explosive player, better chance to be an alpha in the NFL. I didn't dislike Jefferson, but I was uninspired when watching his film. It was hard to tell where Burrow and the offensive scheme ended and Jefferson's skills as a receiver began. I wouldn't be shocked in the slightest if he turned out to be very good but he gives me a Nelson Agholor vibe.

Even though Pittman and Claypool were late bloomers, like you I'm higher than most on them. Both players saw steady improvement throughout all 4 years in college. I think both landed in great spots as well. While I think age is important, I also think it can be overblown sometimes. Both Pittman and Claypool were putting up 400+ yards as Sophmores. Recent older busts who were also athletic such as Kevin White and Hakeem Butler were only able to clear 400 yards as Juniors. Pittman and Claypool have College YPR's of 14.7 and 14.4 respectively, which in theory could mean they were used all over the field and won at all levels. Kevin White and Hakeem Butler's YPR were more at opposite ends of the spectrum. White's was 13.6 which means he was more being fed the ball around the LOS (which I confirmed via film study in 2015). Butler's was 19.5 which could mean he was used mainly as a deep threat or his level of competition was so bad he was gaining chunk yardage on every play. It may be a bunch of small nitpicks to some, but I feel like there is reason for more hope and optimism for Pittman and Claypool than some other late-blooming athletic prospects of recent past.

[straightcashhomie831]

Nice writeup. To comment on the Reagor/Coleman thing, maybe as body type and athletes they are similar but not really as football players imo. I think there are a few key differences;
I believe Reagor is a much better route runner.
Reagor is a hands catcher whereas Coleman was a body catcher.
Coleman was hesitant to block even when the play was to his side.

I think it is quite hard to find a comp for Reagor, which is why someone else mentioned OBJ. I don't think Coleman nor OBJ are accurate, but I think he's closer to the OBJ side. Maybe a Steve Smith type is a more apt comp for Reagor.

Reagor and Jefferson are very close in adp but I took Reagor in my leagues. Just seemed like the more explosive player, better chance to be an alpha in the NFL. I didn't dislike Jefferson, but I was uninspired when watching his film. It was hard to tell where Burrow and the offensive scheme ended and Jefferson's skills as a receiver began. I wouldn't be shocked in the slightest if he turned out to be very good but he gives me a Nelson Agholor vibe.

Even though Pittman and Claypool were late bloomers, like you I'm higher than most on them. Both players saw steady improvement throughout all 4 years in college. I think both landed in great spots as well. While I think age is important, I also think it can be overblown sometimes. Both Pittman and Claypool were putting up 400+ yards as Sophmores. Recent older busts who were also athletic such as Kevin White and Hakeem Butler were only able to clear 400 yards as Juniors. Pittman and Claypool have College YPR's of 14.7 and 14.4 respectively, which in theory could mean they were used all over the field and won at all levels. Kevin White and Hakeem Butler's YPR were more at opposite ends of the spectrum. White's was 13.6 which means he was more being fed the ball around the LOS (which I confirmed via film study in 2015). Butler's was 19.5 which could mean he was used mainly as a deep threat or his level of competition was so bad he was gaining chunk yardage on every play. It may be a bunch of small nitpicks to some, but I feel like there is reason for more hope and optimism for Pittman and Claypool than some other late-blooming athletic prospects of recent past.

reagor is my draft crush this year...i took him over Lamb. i FINALLY found his comparison. TY HILTON!

https://r.search.yahoo.com/_ylt=Awr9D27 ... yGo5sX4Ds-

[OhCruelestRanter]

I’m not even sure the Corey Coleman comparison for Reagor is a bad one. Coleman was a great prospect, who flashed very early in Cleveland, and then had his career derailed by:
Breaking his hand twice
Getting saddled with Cody Kessler, Kevin Hogan, Deshone Keizer, Josh McCown, and RG3 at QB
Being a turd who stopped taking care of his body, never improving as a route runner, showing up to camp overweight, getting in legal trouble, etc.

If Jalen Reagor is Corey Coleman only he cares about football, has capable QBs, and doesn’t sustain freakish hand injuries, please sign me up.

[CL3VELANDBR0WNS]

Reagor and Jefferson are very close in adp but I took Reagor in my leagues. Just seemed like the more explosive player, better chance to be an alpha in the NFL. I didn't dislike Jefferson, but I was uninspired when watching his film. It was hard to tell where Burrow and the offensive scheme ended and Jefferson's skills as a receiver began. I wouldn't be shocked in the slightest if he turned out to be very good but he gives me a Nelson Agholor vibe.

Yikes. I thought he was the safest prospect in the draft. I think he's potentially Keenan Allen. He'll be a big slot set-and-forget 1000/6 guy every year. Boring but solid. I think his surprising athletic profile, at least in underwear, may offer even more untapped upside though & his YAC numbers were surprisingly good. I think this will be the guy everyone overthinks and regrets not taking him as the #2 WR behind a Ceedee Lamb who I'm as sure of as anybody. I'm trying to trade up from 9 in one league to make it certain that I can get him, even over Jeudy and Reagor.

[StripesOfKC]

Reagor and Jefferson are very close in adp but I took Reagor in my leagues. Just seemed like the more explosive player, better chance to be an alpha in the NFL. I didn't dislike Jefferson, but I was uninspired when watching his film. It was hard to tell where Burrow and the offensive scheme ended and Jefferson's skills as a receiver began. I wouldn't be shocked in the slightest if he turned out to be very good but he gives me a Nelson Agholor vibe.

Yikes. I thought he was the safest prospect in the draft. I think he's potentially Keenan Allen. He'll be a big slot set-and-forget 1000/6 guy every year. Boring but solid. I think his surprising athletic profile, at least in underwear, may offer even more untapped upside though & his YAC numbers were surprisingly good. I think this will be the guy everyone overthinks and regrets not taking him as the #2 WR behind a Ceedee Lamb who I'm as sure of as anybody. I'm trying to trade up from 9 in one league to make it certain that I can get him, even over Jeudy and Reagor.

I agree with this. Have a hard time seeing Jefferson not being at least a solid WR3/low WR2
Was thinking more Tyler Boyd than Keenan Allen but that is a good high end comp

He is a different tier of prospect than Reagor to me

[Sriracha]

Reagor and Jefferson are very close in adp but I took Reagor in my leagues. Just seemed like the more explosive player, better chance to be an alpha in the NFL. I didn't dislike Jefferson, but I was uninspired when watching his film. It was hard to tell where Burrow and the offensive scheme ended and Jefferson's skills as a receiver began. I wouldn't be shocked in the slightest if he turned out to be very good but he gives me a Nelson Agholor vibe.

Yikes. I thought he was the safest prospect in the draft. I think he's potentially Keenan Allen. He'll be a big slot set-and-forget 1000/6 guy every year. Boring but solid. I think his surprising athletic profile, at least in underwear, may offer even more untapped upside though & his YAC numbers were surprisingly good. I think this will be the guy everyone overthinks and regrets not taking him as the #2 WR behind a Ceedee Lamb who I'm as sure of as anybody. I'm trying to trade up from 9 in one league to make it certain that I can get him, even over Jeudy and Reagor.

I'm with DD, here.

Reagor is an absolute beast, and checks every box I have for a receiver prospect (Freshman break out, early declare, 1st round capital -- a cohort with a 73% hit rate, wow factor on tape + elite athleticism). Jefferson is the perceived "safer" prospect.. but that whole 2019 LSU offense feels somewhat fluky; the amount of Jefferson's production that was the result of Joe Brady scheming him into a good match-up is troubling. I realize he played on the outside a lot more in 2018 and was still moderately successful, but I just don't know how much of his production was the result of him or the offense around him. I still like Jefferson a lot, but I have Reagor in a tier above, a smidgen below Lamb and Jeudy.

To build on what OP said about Reagor; I focus on a prospect's best season, which for Reagor is 2018. A lot of things can happen that can lead to a down final year; but in Reagor's case it's pretty obvious what the issue was: QB play. In terms of target accuracy and catchable target percentage Reagor was victim to the 4th worst and 2nd worst percentage in NCAAF last year.

https://twitter.com/michaelkistnfl/stat ... 2687148033
https://twitter.com/GrahamBarfield/stat ... 09/photo/1
https://twitter.com/PFF_College/status/ ... 9693228039

[ericanadian]

So no one is concerned about Reagor’s abysmal agility score?

[esloan35]

Great read and thank you!

[Jigga94]

So no one is concerned about Reagor’s abysmal agility score?

Not really. Doesn't look like an issue on tape to me. Also, so many WR skip those drills, it seems like they know they won't test as well either. If he hadn't tested, it wouldn't even be thought of as a concern.

Which WR has even tested well recently for agility? I was doing a quick search. AJ Brown was 47th percentile. DK was obviously terrible and we all remember his 3 cone being blown out of proportion.

This year, Ruggs, Lamb, Jeudy, Higgins and Jefferson all have incomplete data... Pittman's is 66th percentile but he seems to get a large bump for being 6'4. I get that it's harder to be agile being taller, but Reagor's scores are better and it's not like he's a small guy.

Most importantly... Reagor is also the same guy everyone expected to test better. He was at least expected to be in the 4.3 range for 40 but ran 4.47. He recently ran an "unofficial" 4.22 40 at his pro day and much better agility times.

https://syndication.bleacherreport.com/ ... y.amp.html