Gronk Thread: Gronkowski to Tampa Bay!

[joeday]

I feel like Gronk will play as long as Brady is there. If Brady retires/leaves, I think Gronk will than retire.

I agree with this.

^^^ we don't agree on much but we agree on this . I would ride him into retirement before I sold for the 1:6 , People throw generational talent label around on this site - like spare change at the march of dimes fundraiser but that neanderthal is a true generational talent and should be held on to with a clenched fist .

How much is Gronk being a generational talent vs Gronk has been locked in with the GOAT QB in a system that utilizes the TE? I am not saying he isn't great, he is 100% a complete TE as in he is an excellent blocker along with his receiving skills but he wasn't even the first TE taken in his draft class. Jermaine Gresham was taken ~25 players before him. Of course we will never know the answer, but I think being with Brady clearly helps pushes him up a fair bit.

Edit: of course Brady wasn't drafted high in his draft class but you get my point

His back injury caused him to slip into the 2nd round.

Yeah, Gronk was a very highly recruited high schooler and people thought a first round lock until the back injury.

[ArrylT]

Another reason that Gronk may decide to retire is that he is no longer the #1 dynasty TE (or maybe even in redraft).

[bigchiefbc]

I don't think his comments had anything to do with the SB loss, which is what a lot of people seem to be hung up on. That wasn't an off the cuff response, he was caught off guard by a question about a private conversation he had with a teammate.

I'm sorry, do you have a source for this? Because I haven't read anything that credibly reports that this was a thing before he was asked after the super bowl.

https://www.boston.com/sports/new-engla ... l-contract

Oh, ok, it's all just a link back to Darlington. I thought there was some other source I didn't know about. Meh.

[thebeast]

There’s this thing called google....

“"I don’t know how you heard that but I'm definitely going to look at my future for sure," Gronkowski said. "I'm going to sit down the next couple weeks and see where I’m at."

[Jfever]

There’s this thing called google....

“"I don’t know how you heard that but I'm definitely going to look at my future for sure," Gronkowski said. "I'm going to sit down the next couple weeks and see where I’m at."

After reading this, I better sell all my shares of Gronk for whatever I can get!

[Jfever]

Recently heard of an offer made for Gronk in one of my leagues. In that league, I don't own Gronk. Anyway, Guy owning Gronk was offered the 1.07 and a 3.07 and the guy making the offer said that was the best he could do for Gronk because of the unknowns and he explained that he thought that Gronk was likely to play one more season. This type of thinking is simply maddening. The unknowns.... lmao.
The 1.07.... smh

[palevermilion]

If you watch the actual interview, it seems like he had a private conversation about retirement and is genuinely surprised that conversation got out as he doesn't deny any of it. (https://youtu.be/oa9lkjqfhW8) As a Gronk owner, it makes me nervous. Certainly nothing I'm gonna laugh off or mock others for if they have concerns and aren't willing to pay dynasty TE1 prices.

[dynastyninja]

Recently heard of an offer made for Gronk in one of my leagues. In that league, I don't own Gronk. Anyway, Guy owning Gronk was offered the 1.07 and a 3.07 and the guy making the offer said that was the best he could do for Gronk because of the unknowns and he explained that he thought that Gronk was likely to play one more season. This type of thinking is simply maddening. The unknowns.... lmao.
The 1.07.... smh

J, I'm surprised at how much you're basically ignoring the risk here. How much longer do you think Gronk has? A first round pick is very reasonable for a 1-2 year rental.

[Jfever]

In your view, maybe more importantly, how likely is a 1.07 draft pick to turn into a weekly starter? Is there more or less questions or risk associated with the pick or the rumors around the fantasyt #1 TE?

I think some of you are bored and are making more of something and making multiple assumptions - then.... the snowball effect of off season group think.

Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe its time to sell. I've been wrong before. My gut tells me that the 1.07, 3.07 offer for Gronk in my one league is an attempt to buy low due to rumors swirling. I'll have none of that. It is bad business.

[palevermilion]

My gut tells me that the 1.07, 3.07 offer for Gronk in my one league is an attempt to buy low due to rumors swirling. I'll have none of that. It is bad business.

This part I totally agree with. I wouldn't sell him for that. But I can also see the other side of the risk involved. Basically now is not the time to sell him. Once August/September hits and teams realize they need a TE for a championship run is the time to sell. People are so focused on draft picks now that their value is gonna sky rocket.

[dynastyninja]

In your view, maybe more importantly, how likely is a 1.07 draft pick to turn into a weekly starter? Is there more or less questions or risk associated with the pick or the rumors around the fantasyt #1 TE?

I think some of you are bored and are making more of something and making multiple assumptions - then.... the snowball effect of off season group think.

Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe its time to sell. I've been wrong before. My gut tells me that the 1.07, 3.07 offer for Gronk in my one league is an attempt to buy low due to rumors swirling. I'll have none of that. It is bad business.

I'm sure someone has already done the math, but I'd be betting you have about a 40% chance at landing a weekly starter. You're also selling Gronk for something instead of dropping him after he retires in the next two years.

It's fine, I get not wanting to trade Gronk and being willing to take the risk, but you're dismissing the offer as ludicrous when it's not.

When do you think Gronk is done?

[Jfever]

I sure in the #$%# would buy him for that. I wouldn't think on it for more than a 1/2 second. I guess it'd first depend on if I considered myself a contender. Most of my leagues I am at minimum a playoff contender so yeah, I'd happily trade away a mid first plus a 3rd for a shot at a championship and at minimum a one year rental... Heck, Players like Monte Ball, DGB, and Tavon Austin have been drafted at or above the 1.07. I love how every single year people forget the inherent risk involved in the draft and have this crazy self confidence that they'll never miss on a mid round rookie pick. It happens. I doubt that 1.07 draft picks are dynasty starters at a 40% clip / rate of success, but, I don't have time to look it up right now.

I'm betting Gronk plays in 2018 and 2019 - then hangs up the cleats. So, depending on health / severe un-expected injury, 1-2 seasons for me. If healthy, I could see him playing longer. If back injuries worsen, 1-2 years is likely the ceiling.

[dynastyninja]

I sure in the #$%# would buy him for that. I wouldn't think on it for more than a 1/2 second. I guess it'd first depend on if I considered myself a contender. Most of my leagues I am at minimum a playoff contender so yeah, I'd happily trade away a mid first plus a 3rd for a shot at a championship and at minimum a one year rental... Heck, Players like Monte Ball, DGB, and Tavon Austin have been drafted at or above the 1.07. I love how every single year people forget the inherent risk involved in the draft and have this crazy self confidence that they'll never miss on a mid round rookie pick. It happens. I doubt that 1.07 draft picks are dynasty starters at a 40% clip / rate of success, but, I don't have time to look it up right now.

I'm betting Gronk plays in 2018 and 2019 - then hangs up the cleats. So, depending on health / severe un-expected injury, 1-2 seasons for me. If healthy, I could see him playing longer. If back injuries worsen, 1-2 years is likely the ceiling.

So what pick do you think 1-2 years of Gronk is worth, accounting for his injury risk? One more major injury and I'm betting he considers retirement even more seriously.

[Jfever]

How much is winning a championship worth to you?

If I'm a contender. A contender that has (without Gronk) a legit shot at making the playoffs and making some noise. I'd pay a 1.03-1.04 if I had a weakness at TE. But, in reality, not too many strong contenders are sitting on an early pick so, I'd probably have to throw a couple other pieces / throw ins / later picks, with a late first in order to make it work. I am an owner that is serious about winning. To me many owners love to have the "next big thing" or like to build teams around youth with upside. Not enough owners focus on how to win championships. Too many focus a lot of their attention on rookie picks and shiny new toy syndrome. But, I certainly can admit that there are different strategies to this game and that is what helps to keep it interesting.

The thing is, this is a rumor that may or may not have roots in reality. Every player that gets beat up has GOT to think about retirement. Every player that loses a Super Bowl, has got to consider his career and how much more of this to put up with. Nearly every single player within the age range of say 28 and up after getting beat up pretty good AND loosing the super bowl has go though some mental checks and balances. Journalists need things to write about. We need things to speculate on. When they write, and we discuss - This perpetuates doubt and adds chinks to the armor of any player's dynasty value. It is fun to speculate, it is interesting to read about other's takes. Its fair to say that there are more dynasty owners do not own Gronk than owners that do. These are typically the folks that will say he is set up financially after his football career, he is destined for a career after football, his injuries are piling up, he will be done soon, etc. It is a tactic that is used in business and real estate to lower the consumer confidence in a product or property, or a company before another company swings in and buys it up at a discount. And, even if the rumor spreading company doesn't come in to purchase said land, business, or product, they've successfully lowered the cost or value, which in turn, helps their alternative product gain perceived value. It's possible that this is normal off season chatter. It's also possible that consciously or subconsciously, there is a bit more going on.

If you own him, I'd suggest holding and riding him out. If you don't own him, and do have a need at TE, it can't hurt to throw out offers. I'm going to look into doing just that in the 5 leagues that I don't own him.

[dynastyninja]

Alright J, it's not a rumor. You keep implying that this is some wild speculation. Rob Gronkowski himself acknowledged that he is looking at it. It is a reality that he is considering retirement.

There's a very real chance, despite your insistence otherwise, that he is done and will be announcing his retirement this offseason. I think it's likely he stays another year or two, but stop implying that we are just crazed for news in the offseason and there's nothing to see here, because there is.

As for your 1.03-1.04 price, I think that's reasonable. I personally wouldn't be paying any first for him unless I felt like he turned me into a championship team, but I have shifted to a much more risk-averse strategy recently and can understand taking a risk on someone like Gronk.