Gronk Thread: Gronkowski to Tampa Bay!

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Gronk Thread: Gronkowski to Tampa Bay!

Postby Warren » Fri Apr 06, 2012 1:10 pm

I've heard this phrase more than a few times when referring to Gronk in an attempt to somehow devalue him. It is an utterly ridiculous statement in my mind and not because I think he's going to surpass those numbers, but because they are such ridiculous numbers. He just completely smashed TE scoring records at the age of 22 and people think they're going out on a limb or even making an intelligent statement by saying that he hit his ceiling. C'mon! Really? He just smashed through the previous ceiling and set the bar so high that only he can be the target for such a ridiculous statement to even exist. Anyone who expects Gronk to actually surpass last year's stats need to have their head examined because they are otherworldly stats. Is it possible? Sure. Is it likely? Probably not.
    I also have noticed that players at other positions don't seem to have that ceiling statement thrown out a whole lot. In fact, the expectations seem to grow higher for those players, especially at a young age. Most players don't hit their peak until they are about 27 and Gronk supposedly hit his at 22. I guess people don't think, or are afraid to think,that he can actually get better. They think Gronk's season was some kind of freak accident or the result of a perfect storm. We'll see, but stop with the ceiling statements already since his ceiling is already phenomenal.
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                      Re: Gronk "hitting his ceiling"

                      Postby jordanzs » Fri Apr 06, 2012 1:53 pm

                      Talent and ability-wise, I don't think he's hit his ceiling. Even if he has, that's a nice ceiling to hit.

                      Gameplan-wise, I wouldn't be surprised to see an influx of WR talent take away from his production a little bit. That would be good for the Patriots & Gronk as it'll save wear & tear on him.

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                      Re: Gronk "hitting his ceiling"

                      Postby MARKinMI » Sat Apr 07, 2012 1:05 am

                      jordanzs wrote:Talent and ability-wise, I don't think he's hit his ceiling. Even if he has, that's a nice ceiling to hit.

                      Gameplan-wise, I wouldn't be surprised to see an influx of WR talent take away from his production a little bit. That would be good for the Patriots & Gronk as it'll save wear & tear on him.
                      I agree with this. Gronk's a beast and a top 2 TE giving any team that owns him a big advantage at the TE position over every other TE not named Jimmy Graham. However as said above i don't look for him to get as many targets as he did last year but he'll get more than enough to battle graham for overall TE1.
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                      Re: Gronk "hitting his ceiling"

                      Postby TryingToWin » Sat Apr 07, 2012 11:17 am

                      I really think it is possible that Hernandez puts up better stats this season.

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                      Re: Gronk "hitting his ceiling"

                      Postby Warren » Sat Apr 07, 2012 11:32 am

                      TryingToWin wrote:I really think it is possible that Hernandez puts up better stats this season.
                      Based on what? Wishful thinking?
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                                        Re: Gronk "hitting his ceiling"

                                        Postby TryingToWin » Sat Apr 07, 2012 12:00 pm

                                        Is it really that crazy??
                                        The following numbers are very similar. First and foremost we should acknowledge that Hernandez accrued these numbers even with missing two games, the two additional games based on his averages would have added 16 targets, 11 receptions, 130 yards, and 1 TD. Those targets would have led Gronk, the receptions would have tied Gronk, and the TD is still a far ways off!!

                                        The main differences were yards, where Gronk had 1,327 and Hernandez had 910, and TDs, where Gronk had 17 and Hernandez had 7. The difference in yardage is most affected by long plays which are unpredictable for two guys that don't run deep 'go' routes all that often and have to rely on YAC. Gronk had 22 plays of 20+ yards and 3 of 40+ while Hernandez had 12 of 20+ and 2 of 40+. Those 10 more plays of 20+ count for, at the very least, 200 yards. Also, TDs are a glaring difference whereas Gronk had 17 rec TD and 1 rush TD while Hernandez had 7 receiving. Again, this is an unpredictable stat as we have seen guys go from a lot to a little in the past, such as former N.E. Patriot Randy Moss with a +20 followed by a -12 in consecutive seasons for TD receptions.(2006-3 TDs, 2007-23 TDs, 2008 11 TDs).

                                        Who's to say that Hernandez won't break the long plays off or take it to the house more times this season...the opportunities are there and that is all that is needed for guys as talented as these two. I am not saying it WILL happen, I just think it is possible and would not be surprised.

                                        Targets:
                                        Gronk- 124(reg season) 147(inc postseason)
                                        Hernandez- 113(reg season) 144(inc postseason)

                                        Receptions:
                                        Gronk- 90(reg) 107(inc post)
                                        Hernandez- 79(reg) 98(inc post)

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                                        Re: Gronk "hitting his ceiling"

                                        Postby MARKinMI » Sat Apr 07, 2012 12:27 pm

                                        what you fail to mention is that Gronk sees more snaps than Hernandez does and with the addition of LLoyd that difference could even grow. Herenandez wont see as mavy targets this season now that the Pats have a full compliment of capable WRs which they didn't have last year.
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                                        Re: Gronk "hitting his ceiling"

                                        Postby Warren » Sat Apr 07, 2012 12:46 pm

                                        Without needing to quote you, I'll just say that I appreciate you stating your argument. Anything is possible, but I could sit and make arguments all day by minimizing player A's accomplishments and magnifying player B's. Your unpredictability statement referring to TDs to support your argument is pretty silly. Gronk is simply a player that can dominate in the red zone and yet his TDs are unpredictable? He had 10 his rookie year and 21total last year, including the playoffs. It seems as if everything Gronk excelled in over Hernandez is unpredictable, but everything else that they did is what can be expected. I have no idea what Hernandez has to do with this thread anyway.
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                                                          Re: Gronk "hitting his ceiling"

                                                          Postby TryingToWin » Sat Apr 07, 2012 12:52 pm

                                                          MARKinMI wrote:what you fail to mention is that Gronk sees more snaps than Hernandez does and with the addition of LLoyd that difference could even grow. Herenandez wont see as mavy targets this season now that the Pats have a full compliment of capable WRs which they didn't have last year.
                                                          The same can be said for Gronk. Gronk gets more snaps because he blocks more. There is no way anyone could say that if Lloyd receives X amount of targets that they will be directly subtracted from just Hernandez. Gronk will lose targets, Hernandez will lose targets, Welker will lose targets, etc.

                                                          When the two TEs are on the field the primary target is Hernandez, in those circumstances, he was targeted 104 times for 75 receptions. Gronkowski had 87 targets and 64 receptions. Hernandez lined up as a wide receiver for 505 snaps compared to just 255 snaps as a tight end on the line. There were even 61 snaps where he lined up at running back. Gronkowski is far more likely to stay in and pass-block.
                                                          Hernandez was a pass-blocker on only 11 plays in 2011.

                                                          As for the additional snaps that Gronk is in for, he had 1290 to Hernandez's 1051. That is 239 more snaps. Gronk was used 531 times to run block, Hernandez 406. Gronk was used 81 times to pass block, Hernandez 11. So, Gronk blocked on 195 more plays than Hernandez; this makes the additional snaps virtually a moot point.

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                                                          Re: Gronk "hitting his ceiling"

                                                          Postby TryingToWin » Sat Apr 07, 2012 12:54 pm

                                                          I am just saying it's possible, and for statistical reasons.

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                                                          Re: Gronk "hitting his ceiling"

                                                          Postby WZA » Sat Apr 07, 2012 12:58 pm

                                                          TryingToWin wrote:Is it really that crazy??
                                                          The following numbers are very similar. First and foremost we should acknowledge that Hernandez accrued these numbers even with missing two games, the two additional games based on his averages would have added 16 targets, 11 receptions, 130 yards, and 1 TD. Those targets would have led Gronk, the receptions would have tied Gronk, and the TD is still a far ways off!!

                                                          The main differences were yards, where Gronk had 1,327 and Hernandez had 910, and TDs, where Gronk had 17 and Hernandez had 7. The difference in yardage is most affected by long plays which are unpredictable for two guys that don't run deep 'go' routes all that often and have to rely on YAC. Gronk had 22 plays of 20+ yards and 3 of 40+ while Hernandez had 12 of 20+ and 2 of 40+. Those 10 more plays of 20+ count for, at the very least, 200 yards. Also, TDs are a glaring difference whereas Gronk had 17 rec TD and 1 rush TD while Hernandez had 7 receiving. Again, this is an unpredictable stat as we have seen guys go from a lot to a little in the past, such as former N.E. Patriot Randy Moss with a +20 followed by a -12 in consecutive seasons for TD receptions.(2006-3 TDs, 2007-23 TDs, 2008 11 TDs).

                                                          Who's to say that Hernandez won't break the long plays off or take it to the house more times this season...the opportunities are there and that is all that is needed for guys as talented as these two. I am not saying it WILL happen, I just think it is possible and would not be surprised.

                                                          Targets:
                                                          Gronk- 124(reg season) 147(inc postseason)
                                                          Hernandez- 113(reg season) 144(inc postseason)

                                                          Receptions:
                                                          Gronk- 90(reg) 107(inc post)
                                                          Hernandez- 79(reg) 98(inc post)
                                                          Says the guy with Hernandez on his roster...

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                                                          Re: Gronk "hitting his ceiling"

                                                          Postby Mangelo » Sat Apr 07, 2012 2:02 pm

                                                          There's a strange antiGronk infection going on. Venture over to the assistant coach forum and people are getting ok players like Mathews, Murray or hernandez for the Gronk and then getting congratulated for it. It baffles me how people are giving away the next antonio gates for such a pittance. It's overanalysis at it's finest. Just because he won't repeat his numbers doesn't mean he can't come close for the next 8 years.

                                                          Ff isn't that difficult. When you get an elite guy you hold onto him, you don't trade him for a couple of good guys that might be elite if everything breaks right for them.

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                                                          Re: Gronk "hitting his ceiling"

                                                          Postby MARKinMI » Sat Apr 07, 2012 4:16 pm

                                                          TryingToWin wrote:
                                                          MARKinMI wrote:what you fail to mention is that Gronk sees more snaps than Hernandez does and with the addition of LLoyd that difference could even grow. Herenandez wont see as mavy targets this season now that the Pats have a full compliment of capable WRs which they didn't have last year.
                                                          The same can be said for Gronk. Gronk gets more snaps because he blocks more. There is no way anyone could say that if Lloyd receives X amount of targets that they will be directly subtracted from just Hernandez. Gronk will lose targets, Hernandez will lose targets, Welker will lose targets, etc.

                                                          When the two TEs are on the field the primary target is Hernandez, in those circumstances, he was targeted 104 times for 75 receptions. Gronkowski had 87 targets and 64 receptions. Hernandez lined up as a wide receiver for 505 snaps compared to just 255 snaps as a tight end on the line. There were even 61 snaps where he lined up at running back. Gronkowski is far more likely to stay in and pass-block.
                                                          Hernandez was a pass-blocker on only 11 plays in 2011.

                                                          As for the additional snaps that Gronk is in for, he had 1290 to Hernandez's 1051. That is 239 more snaps. Gronk was used 531 times to run block, Hernandez 406. Gronk was used 81 times to pass block, Hernandez 11. So, Gronk blocked on 195 more plays than Hernandez; this makes the additional snaps virtually a moot point.
                                                          Thats exactly my point. The Pats lined Hernandez up more at WR due to the lack of a decent WR out wide. That should take a hit with Lloyd there. I dont see them running as many 2 TE sets as they did last season either. Hernandez will still be a very valuable asset for fantasy but i think the presence of Lloyd will hurt hernandez more than Gronk or Welker. Welker gets his regardless, he saw 100+ catches with Moss in the lineup. New England went out and got Lloyd because defenses were collapsing on the 2 TE sets smothering welker and the running game. Hernandez also couldn't stretch out the defense when he split out wide thus the change in personnel and the reason i see Hernandez getting less snaps. Gronk is the primary TE for reasons you mentioned also, hes a better blocker and a better all around TE than hernandez is. The best thing that could happen to Hernandez is a ticket out of town where he could be a Jimmy Graham like TE for another team. How good would he look in Chicago with Cutler... Jeremy Bates uses alot of TE friendly plays, But thats changing the subject. I firmly believe that the Pats wont pay both TE's when their contracts are both up so I'm guessing we see a trade in the future before one of them leaves in their walk year.
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                                                          Re: Gronk "hitting his ceiling"

                                                          Postby TryingToWin » Sat Apr 07, 2012 7:31 pm

                                                          MARKinMI wrote:
                                                          TryingToWin wrote:
                                                          MARKinMI wrote:what you fail to mention is that Gronk sees more snaps than Hernandez does and with the addition of LLoyd that difference could even grow. Herenandez wont see as mavy targets this season now that the Pats have a full compliment of capable WRs which they didn't have last year.
                                                          The same can be said for Gronk. Gronk gets more snaps because he blocks more. There is no way anyone could say that if Lloyd receives X amount of targets that they will be directly subtracted from just Hernandez. Gronk will lose targets, Hernandez will lose targets, Welker will lose targets, etc.

                                                          When the two TEs are on the field the primary target is Hernandez, in those circumstances, he was targeted 104 times for 75 receptions. Gronkowski had 87 targets and 64 receptions. Hernandez lined up as a wide receiver for 505 snaps compared to just 255 snaps as a tight end on the line. There were even 61 snaps where he lined up at running back. Gronkowski is far more likely to stay in and pass-block.
                                                          Hernandez was a pass-blocker on only 11 plays in 2011.

                                                          As for the additional snaps that Gronk is in for, he had 1290 to Hernandez's 1051. That is 239 more snaps. Gronk was used 531 times to run block, Hernandez 406. Gronk was used 81 times to pass block, Hernandez 11. So, Gronk blocked on 195 more plays than Hernandez; this makes the additional snaps virtually a moot point.
                                                          Thats exactly my point. The Pats lined Hernandez up more at WR due to the lack of a decent WR out wide. That should take a hit with Lloyd there. I dont see them running as many 2 TE sets as they did last season either. Hernandez will still be a very valuable asset for fantasy but i think the presence of Lloyd will hurt hernandez more than Gronk or Welker. Welker gets his regardless, he saw 100+ catches with Moss in the lineup. New England went out and got Lloyd because defenses were collapsing on the 2 TE sets smothering welker and the running game. Hernandez also couldn't stretch out the defense when he split out wide thus the change in personnel and the reason i see Hernandez getting less snaps. Gronk is the primary TE for reasons you mentioned also, hes a better blocker and a better all around TE than hernandez is. The best thing that could happen to Hernandez is a ticket out of town where he could be a Jimmy Graham like TE for another team. How good would he look in Chicago with Cutler... Jeremy Bates uses alot of TE friendly plays, But thats changing the subject. I firmly believe that the Pats wont pay both TE's when their contracts are both up so I'm guessing we see a trade in the future before one of them leaves in their walk year.

                                                          Touché! Good point my friend. Nice discussion fellas.

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                                                          Re: Gronk "hitting his ceiling"

                                                          Postby Major_Loser » Sat Apr 07, 2012 10:43 pm

                                                          Mangelo wrote:There's a strange antiGronk infection going on. Venture over to the assistant coach forum and people are getting ok players like Mathews, Murray or hernandez for the Gronk and then getting congratulated for it. It baffles me how people are giving away the next antonio gates for such a pittance. It's overanalysis at it's finest. Just because he won't repeat his numbers doesn't mean he can't come close for the next 8 years.

                                                          Ff isn't that difficult. When you get an elite guy you hold onto him, you don't trade him for a couple of good guys that might be elite if everything breaks right for them.
                                                          I just traded Murray/Hernandez and a 2012 4th round rookie pick and a 2013 2nd round pick for Gronk. Within 20 minutes I was getting texts I got trade raped. It wasn't cheap, but I think people are undervaluing him for some odd reason.
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