Christian McCaffrey Thread: CMC Extension

[Cameron Giles]

I do not disagree with any of this. But, I don’t define “contender” as a guy who makes the playoffs because of one or two guys. I’m just pushing back on the notion that we should always be trying to sell at peak value because we play in dynasty. That thinking works with stocks, but while analogous in some ways, there is a difference between stocks and our dynasty assets. Our dynasty assets have value in addition to their “virtual currency” (picks, other players). In order to win we need our player (X) to produce more points than the other player (Y), even if player Y would yield us a greater return if we sold them. So, if I’m a “real” contender, It’s very unlikely you can make up for the points you lose trading away top players for other assets (at least consistently). Sorry to derail thread.

I always find these conversations interesting. Because it's basically the dilemma of: Do you want to risk not selling high or do we just ride off into the sunset with our elite players?

Honestly, I feel like there's really no set answer, but I feel more comfortable riding out WRs and TEs than RBs. Players can be great for a long time and I've seen people trade studs for high upside assets that flame out. But, when you look at the some of the top RBs:

Gurley
Johnson
Freeman
Bell
McCoy

All of them peak in value at some point in their mid 20's and their trade value never recovers because of the wear/tear of the position. So, if you have a team that hasn't done anything the past two years with CMC, then I would definitely consider selling. You can get a boat load for him.

Of course, the downside is that you trade him for picks, and the picks bust. So, it's gotta be the right combination of assets.

[ckrumm24]

So, if you have a team that hasn't done anything the past two years with CMC, then I would definitely consider selling. You can get a boat load for him.

I should have added that I'm 100% an advocate of this, but I'm was too busy emphasizing the contender side. If my team has a bunch of other holes in it compared to other teams in my league, I would sell CMC (or other RB) every time at his current value.

[thebadferret]

What do you think about CMC?
When he is on the field he is the top asset in the game, but he seems to be missing time regularly. Where do you see him go.
His 1.01 status was already in question this year, but I bet with his injury it will be even more in question next year. Maybe it's the move to wait till he gets back and hopefully has a one or 2 good weeks and then sell him for 1.01 value.

I've been struck with incredible luck regarding my RB core (CMC, Barkley, Dobbins and Gibson) and I already dealt Barkley, because I'm sick.

[Cameron Giles]

What do you think about CMC?
When he is on the field he is the top asset in the game, but he seems to be missing time regularly. Where do you see him go.
His 1.01 status was already in question this year, but I bet with his injury it will be even more in question next year. Maybe it's the move to wait till he gets back and hopefully has a one or 2 good weeks and then sell him for 1.01 value.

I've been struck with incredible luck regarding my RB core (CMC, Barkley, Dobbins and Gibson) and I already dealt Barkley, because I'm sick.

I think that window is gone. He's still a very good RB, but there's no incentive for anyone to trade three firsts for him.

You could get a first + a player on reputation, but he needs to get back on the field first and sustain something.

[dynastyninja]

I offered (a healthy) DMont for him right after CMCs injury and was rejected. Felt like a buy low, but I thought there was a chance I'd regret it in a season or so if he had accepted.

The crazy workloads have caught up to McCaffrey. He'll produce when healthy. Question is if he'll ever be fully healthy again.

[Orenthal Shames]

The dude has played less than 6 full games since the end of the 2019 season. Rather than ease him in, CAR just immediately gives him 30 touches post injury. It's like getting a new set of racing tires and then going off-roading.

[Anteaters]

The dude has played less than 6 full games since the end of the 2019 season. Rather than ease him in, CAR just immediately gives him 30 touches post injury. It's like getting a new set of racing tires and then going off-roading.

The flip side to rushing a RB recovering from injury into service with 30 carries is bringing the RB back with limited touches in his first few games. That's what the NY Giants decided to do with Barkley. Instead of opening the season with back-to-back 30-touch games like CMC, NYG brought Barkley back with 11, 15, 22, and 18 touches touches in his first four games. The result? Barkley also suffered another injury requiring a visit to the IR.

Sometimes a player is simply an injury prone player who is going to suffer repeat injuries no matter how they are brought back. Realistically, either a player is healthy enough to play or he is not. 15 touches versus 30 touches isn't going to keep an injury-prone player from suffering an injury. At some point, we have to admit the truth with both these guys - their bodies are no longer capable of enduring the violence of the NFL.

[mild]

The dude has played less than 6 full games since the end of the 2019 season. Rather than ease him in, CAR just immediately gives him 30 touches post injury. It's like getting a new set of racing tires and then going off-roading.

The flip side to rushing a RB recovering from injury into service with 30 carries is bringing the RB back with limited touches in his first few games. That's what the NY Giants decided to do with Barkley. Instead of opening the season with back-to-back 30-touch games like CMC, NYG brought Barkley back with 11, 15, 22, and 18 touches touches in his first four games. The result? Barkley also suffered another injury requiring a visit to the IR.

I think this is a bad faith argument that Saquon's injury was somehow predictable by the usage data. It wasn't. He just stepped on someone's foot, on the wrong angle. Freak play, and it could happen to anyone. By this same logic, JK Dobbins should have never even bothered suiting up for the season, as he was always destined for the IR.

Has Saquon been injured on these freak plays more often than seems normal? Yeah, I guess. Is it predictable by usage data? Not really. Were they aggravations of the same injury? Nope. Might he just be cursed? Yes, but only insofar as all of the Giants roster is cursed.

I dunno, using outcomes to retroactively claim injury probability just does not feel like a data point that will tell us anything going forward. Football is randomised violence, RB's get injured, and we see the older guys with massive usage drop off every year. I don't think it needs to be more complicated than that.

[Shoreline Steamers]

I think this is a bad faith argument that Saquon's injury was somehow predictable by the usage data. It wasn't. He just stepped on someone's foot, on the wrong angle. Freak play, and it could happen to anyone.

Bingo.

Was going to say just that.

[blemly]

Got an offer for CMC for essentially Najee + 2nd. I’m all in on this year and think I need to take it, but it doesn’t make it easy.

[thebadferret]

Got an offer for CMC for essentially Najee + 2nd. I’m all in on this year and think I need to take it, but it doesn’t make it easy.

I think I'd take that in a heartbeat, even as a contender.

[Anteaters]

I think this is a bad faith argument that Saquon's injury was somehow predictable by the usage data. It wasn't. He just stepped on someone's foot, on the wrong angle. Freak play, and it could happen to anyone. By this same logic, JK Dobbins should have never even bothered suiting up for the season, as he was always destined for the IR.

Has Saquon been injured on these freak plays more often than seems normal? Yeah, I guess. Is it predictable by usage data? Not really. Were they aggravations of the same injury? Nope. Might he just be cursed? Yes, but only insofar as all of the Giants roster is cursed.

I dunno, using outcomes to retroactively claim injury probability just does not feel like a data point that will tell us anything going forward. Football is randomised violence, RB's get injured, and we see the older guys with massive usage drop off every year. I don't think it needs to be more complicated than that.

Sorry. What I was trying to say is Saquon's injury was NOT predictable base on usage. Any injury he suffers if based on his body not being able to endure the violence of the NFL game. A lot of guys step on other players' feet without ending up on the IR. We can say Saquon was incredibly unlucky, or we can look at the evidence of his injury history and conclude that when these incidents happen to him they appear to be more severe than when they happen to other players. We can call them "freak" injuries, but after one guy keeps suffering freak injuries, it's more than a random unlucky thing.

I hate it for him. I love watching him play. Supreme talent, but heightened injury risk.

[Anteaters]

Got an offer for CMC for essentially Najee + 2nd. I’m all in on this year and think I need to take it, but it doesn’t make it easy.

I think I'd take that in a heartbeat, even as a contender.

++++

[gogobradyarm]

I think it's unlikely, but there were trade rumors tying CMC to Watson in a trade this offseason. I wonder if Darnold getting benched, makes this happen.

[dustyroads]

I think this is a bad faith argument that Saquon's injury was somehow predictable by the usage data. It wasn't. He just stepped on someone's foot, on the wrong angle. Freak play, and it could happen to anyone. By this same logic, JK Dobbins should have never even bothered suiting up for the season, as he was always destined for the IR.

Has Saquon been injured on these freak plays more often than seems normal? Yeah, I guess. Is it predictable by usage data? Not really. Were they aggravations of the same injury? Nope. Might he just be cursed? Yes, but only insofar as all of the Giants roster is cursed.

I dunno, using outcomes to retroactively claim injury probability just does not feel like a data point that will tell us anything going forward. Football is randomised violence, RB's get injured, and we see the older guys with massive usage drop off every year. I don't think it needs to be more complicated than that.

Sorry. What I was trying to say is Saquon's injury was NOT predictable base on usage. Any injury he suffers if based on his body not being able to endure the violence of the NFL game. A lot of guys step on other players' feet without ending up on the IR. We can say Saquon was incredibly unlucky, or we can look at the evidence of his injury history and conclude that when these incidents happen to him they appear to be more severe than when they happen to other players. We can call them "freak" injuries, but after one guy keeps suffering freak injuries, it's more than a random unlucky thing.

I hate it for him. I love watching him play. Supreme talent, but heightened injury risk.

I remember hearing the same stuff being said about Keenan Allen, who had a very similar start to his career (while obv not as highly touted as Barkley, he also didn't produce his first two years like Barkley did). And after have two freak injuries in back to back years the argument kept being made it was a pattern, there was more to it, he was soft, etc. etc. Think he's missed 2-3 games total in the 5 years since then. Barkley stepping on a foot and rolling his ankle is pretty much the definition of a random unlucky thing, least to me. And if you watched the game and saw the size of his ankle about 10 mins later I don't think it's quite like when one of us missteps and tweaks ours. That looked horrendous and most people speculated it was a break.

You could definitely be right that Barkley continues having injury woes, and because he's a RB there's some more risk baked in with this being the case. But I don't think there is any kind of evidence to suggest he's any more injury prone than another RB on a team with a terrible o-line and poor passing game to support them. If anything, I'd say his recovery time is above average. His 2019 injury was the ever-dreaded high ankle sprain, pretty sure grade 2 partial tear, but he was back in just three weeks and putting up RB1 numbers again. And came back from his ACL/MCL by the following season and once again looked top notch once he got his workload back. If he's missing multiple games again next season, or sitting out for soft tissue injuries, maybe then I could see a trend.