Christian McCaffrey Thread: CMC Extension

[Ice]

Love the talent but please people...STOP trading huge hauls for running backs!!!

I've said this for years and written articles on it. Lev Bell, Gordon, D Johnson...these guys at the top fall off a cliff quick.

Draft RB's and trade them for WR's when the time is right. Rinse repeat.

Your post is simply too helpful to the masses. We need Mullets to Rinse and repeat with!

[YouMightDieTryin]

Is buying Hubbard for the future a smart choice?

[dynastyninja]

Love the talent but please people...STOP trading huge hauls for running backs!!!

I've said this for years and written articles on it. Lev Bell, Gordon, D Johnson...these guys at the top fall off a cliff quick.

Draft RB's and trade them for WR's when the time is right. Rinse repeat.

I don't disagree with your argument in general and usually try to have a similar approach, but some of the greatest fantasy seasons by running backs occurred after 25. It can be worth it to trade for special RBs like CMC.

So I looked it up in between typing this. It looks like a lot of the greats of the last 20 years (LT, Faulk, Lynch, AP, Holmes) had their best seasons after 25. Guys in the last few years have dropped off quickly, but it's not a given that the special backs will fall off the cliff.

[Orenthal Shames]

Love the talent but please people...STOP trading huge hauls for running backs!!!

I've said this for years and written articles on it. Lev Bell, Gordon, D Johnson...these guys at the top fall off a cliff quick.

Draft RB's and trade them for WR's when the time is right. Rinse repeat.

I don't disagree with your argument in general and usually try to have a similar approach, but some of the greatest fantasy seasons by running backs occurred after 25. It can be worth it to trade for special RBs like CMC.

So I looked it up in between typing this. It looks like a lot of the greats of the last 20 years (LT, Faulk, Lynch, AP, Holmes) had their best seasons after 25. Guys in the last few years have dropped off quickly, but it's not a given that the special backs will fall off the cliff.

Was too young to speak on Faulk or Holmes in dynasty, but LT, AP and Lynch were sturdy, extremely durable players throughout their careers. I love the talent of CMC, but he has shown to be anything but that.

[sloth8u]

Love the talent but please people...STOP trading huge hauls for running backs!!!

I've said this for years and written articles on it. Lev Bell, Gordon, D Johnson...these guys at the top fall off a cliff quick.

Draft RB's and trade them for WR's when the time is right. Rinse repeat.

I don't disagree with your argument in general and usually try to have a similar approach, but some of the greatest fantasy seasons by running backs occurred after 25. It can be worth it to trade for special RBs like CMC.

So I looked it up in between typing this. It looks like a lot of the greats of the last 20 years (LT, Faulk, Lynch, AP, Holmes) had their best seasons after 25. Guys in the last few years have dropped off quickly, but it's not a given that the special backs will fall off the cliff.

Was too young to speak on Faulk or Holmes in dynasty, but LT, AP and Lynch were sturdy, extremely durable players throughout their careers. I love the talent of CMC, but he has shown to be anything but that.

That's dynasty 101 there for those of us that have been around for a long time.

i must admit, that i got caught up in the gibson hype though and made a huge move for him

[dynastyninja]

Love the talent but please people...STOP trading huge hauls for running backs!!!

I've said this for years and written articles on it. Lev Bell, Gordon, D Johnson...these guys at the top fall off a cliff quick.

Draft RB's and trade them for WR's when the time is right. Rinse repeat.

I don't disagree with your argument in general and usually try to have a similar approach, but some of the greatest fantasy seasons by running backs occurred after 25. It can be worth it to trade for special RBs like CMC.

So I looked it up in between typing this. It looks like a lot of the greats of the last 20 years (LT, Faulk, Lynch, AP, Holmes) had their best seasons after 25. Guys in the last few years have dropped off quickly, but it's not a given that the special backs will fall off the cliff.

Was too young to speak on Faulk or Holmes in dynasty, but LT, AP and Lynch were sturdy, extremely durable players throughout their careers. I love the talent of CMC, but he has shown to be anything but that.

Definitely not disputing that. I own no shares of McCaffrey and haven't considered buying him really after his 400+ touch season. I'm just saying that the strategy of trading stud running backs before a cliff isn't always a surefire thing. Your long-term dynasty value might be alright, but you could miss out on winning a championship or two if you're always trying to time it.

[Space Cowboy]

I agree on selling RBs once they get big. Last time I made a splash for a RB was after David Johnson's almost 1,000 / 1,000 yard season. Him and Gurley were supposed to get me a championship, instead he gave me nothing until I flipped him for Singletary and I was surprised to even get that.

[dondickenson]

I was lucky enough to win a championship in my main league despite having CMC and Ridley riding the pine pretty much all season. So I’m feeling pretty good that my roster can withstand those hits. (Loaded at QB/WR/TE and RB room survived with CMC, Hunt, CEH, Mitchell, Penny, RoJo, Gaskin)

However, I am sure most that have CMC were disappointed in their outcome this season. So if you find yourself in either of those camps, what are we doing with CMC?

I am inclined to run it back and keep him and hope and pray he stays healthy next year, which would make my team the instant favorite again, with a lot of risk built in.

My other option would be to sell low for a player that doesn’t have near his league exploding upside(like D Mont, Dobbins type maybe, idk) that would leave me more reliably in the top tier of contenders, but not necessarily at the top spot by a solid margin like I would be if CMC is healthy and RB1 again.

My league quiets down until April usually so probably no decisions need to be made soon, but what are your thoughts on what to do with CMC?

[ZakHH]

If you have CMC, hold on to him, unless you find another owner who's ready to pay an RB1 price for him.

If you don't have CMC, don't be that other owner.

Selling him cheap doesn't make sense. Neither does buying him at full price. He will certainly have more weeks where he will put up RB1 numbers. The question is, how many. He started a total 10 games over the last 2 years. He left 2 of these games early, leaving his owners with single-digit production.

In other words: only in 8 of 33 possible games, he repaid his draft value.

You don't buy a player whom you can start only in 25% of games.
And you don't sell a player who is almost guaranteed to deliver 25+ FFP when he starts.

As far as I am concerned, CMC is untradable right now, unless one of the involved parties is ready to bet against the house.

[Cameron Giles]

I'd feel comfortable selling. RBs have short primes. He wouldn't be the last RB to have a few elite seasons and then turn into dust. I think it's fair to wonder whether his body can handle that volume going forward. He'd be better off in a lighter role, where he can still get a lot of receiving work, but isn't also getting 20+ carries a game and rarely leaving the field.

[gogobradyarm]

I bought CMC and 2.05 for 1.03, 23 1st (late). I don’t believe these injuries are going to nag CMC or impact his future. He IMO will be as good as ever when Week 1 hits. He may never do a 17 game season again, but he is a monster when he’s out there. He has a profile that will stand the test of time, and at worst, he could be James White++.

[dondickenson]

There’s some buzz about CMC getting traded. Understandable if injuries worry Panthers, but otherwise they would be incredibly stupid to get rid of him.

Since he was drafted, Panthers have gone 34-45. In games CMC has played, they’ve been 27-28, for a .491 winning percentage. Not particularly good. But without him on the field, they are particularly bad, at 8-17, .320 winning percentage.

Just in this last season they were 4-3 with CMC in the lineup, and 1-8 without. Panthers simply are not a competent NFL caliber team when CMC doesn’t play.

[Cameron Giles]

There’s some buzz about CMC getting traded. Understandable if injuries worry Panthers, but otherwise they would be incredibly stupid to get rid of him.

Since he was drafted, Panthers have gone 34-45. In games CMC has played, they’ve been 27-28, for a .491 winning percentage. Not particularly good. But without him on the field, they are particularly bad, at 8-17, .320 winning percentage.

Just in this last season they were 4-3 with CMC in the lineup, and 1-8 without. Panthers simply are not a competent NFL caliber team when CMC doesn’t play.

Only thing this tells me is that the entirety of their mediocre offense is built around moving the ball with CMC. I think they could get comparable results if they went into a season knowing they're not going to have him and built a more balanced gameplan.

He's a great player, but $14M this year and $17M next year is a tough pill to swallow for an RB when you're not a good team.

I would lean towards moving him. The only thing that would give me pause is if I could upgrade QB with Rodgers, Watson (?), or Wilson. If I get one of those players, then I keep CMC, because then you're in the drivers seat towards an elite offense.

[dondickenson]

There’s some buzz about CMC getting traded. Understandable if injuries worry Panthers, but otherwise they would be incredibly stupid to get rid of him.

Since he was drafted, Panthers have gone 34-45. In games CMC has played, they’ve been 27-28, for a .491 winning percentage. Not particularly good. But without him on the field, they are particularly bad, at 8-17, .320 winning percentage.

Just in this last season they were 4-3 with CMC in the lineup, and 1-8 without. Panthers simply are not a competent NFL caliber team when CMC doesn’t play.

Only thing this tells me is that the entirety of their mediocre offense is built around moving the ball with CMC. I think they could get comparable results if they went into a season knowing they're not going to have him and built a more balanced gameplan.

He's a great player, but $14M this year and $17M next year is a tough pill to swallow for an RB when you're not a good team.

I would lean towards moving him. The only thing that would give me pause is if I could upgrade QB with Rodgers, Watson (?), or Wilson. If I get one of those players, then I keep CMC, because then you're in the drivers seat towards an elite offense.

Yeah could be true, I thought about that, but what do you replace him with that makes the team/offense actually better with that cash? A Melvin Gordon or Ronald Jones or Rashaad Penny signing for cheaper, plus a Michael Gallup or lower WR with the remaining money? Or an average OL/DL with that money? Idk, I just don’t see it, I think they are a basement dweller Atlanta-without-Matt Ryan type team if they choose to do that. Maybe they need to totally bottom out and get the number 1 overall, which could be done by sending away CMC and eating his dead cap for 1-2 years I guess. Does Tepper have the patience after having shown he’ll make poorly planned rash moves to unsuccessfully win now so far?

Definitely agree with your last statement.

[Cameron Giles]

There’s some buzz about CMC getting traded. Understandable if injuries worry Panthers, but otherwise they would be incredibly stupid to get rid of him.

Since he was drafted, Panthers have gone 34-45. In games CMC has played, they’ve been 27-28, for a .491 winning percentage. Not particularly good. But without him on the field, they are particularly bad, at 8-17, .320 winning percentage.

Just in this last season they were 4-3 with CMC in the lineup, and 1-8 without. Panthers simply are not a competent NFL caliber team when CMC doesn’t play.

Only thing this tells me is that the entirety of their mediocre offense is built around moving the ball with CMC. I think they could get comparable results if they went into a season knowing they're not going to have him and built a more balanced gameplan.

He's a great player, but $14M this year and $17M next year is a tough pill to swallow for an RB when you're not a good team.

I would lean towards moving him. The only thing that would give me pause is if I could upgrade QB with Rodgers, Watson (?), or Wilson. If I get one of those players, then I keep CMC, because then you're in the drivers seat towards an elite offense.

Yeah could be true, I thought about that, but what do you replace him with that makes the team/offense actually better with that cash? A Melvin Gordon or Ronald Jones or Rashaad Penny signing for cheaper, plus a Michael Gallup or lower WR with the remaining money? Or an average OL/DL with that money? Idk, I just don’t see it, I think they are a basement dweller Atlanta-without-Matt Ryan type team if they choose to do that. Maybe they need to totally bottom out and get the number 1 overall, which could be done by sending away CMC and eating his dead cap for 1-2 years I guess. Does Tepper have the patience after having shown he’ll make poorly planned rash moves to unsuccessfully win now so far?

Definitely agree with your last statement.

You could improve the offensive line, improve the defense. Ultimately, they need a QB, so everything starts with that first.

But, the last few years have been them trying to win without one and CMC was a big part of that. So, any time he went down, they were basically screwed.