Christian McCaffrey Thread: CMC Extension

[Jigga94]

Saw an interesting stat about CMC's receiving, he's kinda a garbage time beneficiary RB instead of WR. Which I guess makes him game-flow proof if with a lead they still go by his rushing and short high percentage dump offs, and then when behind they're force passing the ball to him.

*McCaffrey has 15 games in his career with double-digit receiving targets. The team has won one of those 15 games. McCaffrey has five games with over 100 yards receiving. The team has won zero of those games.*

Nice thanks. Did it say anything about how he did in games Panthers have actually won? I'm sure it's more rushing than receiving. That sample size is a bit smaller, but I feel like its also important to look at in case they decide to win more games.

[Cameron Giles]

Saw an interesting stat about CMC's receiving, he's kinda a garbage time beneficiary RB instead of WR. Which I guess makes him game-flow proof if with a lead they still go by his rushing and short high percentage dump offs, and then when behind they're force passing the ball to him.

*McCaffrey has 15 games in his career with double-digit receiving targets. The team has won one of those 15 games. McCaffrey has five games with over 100 yards receiving. The team has won zero of those games.*

I remember the Colts game from last season. They lost 38 to 6....and CMC had 15 receptions.

[FantasyFreak]

Regardless of what people think about the importance of RB's, this is fantastic for RB's. Zeke and CMC being able to get paid after Gurley's issue is substantial for the future of the position. Getting extended and paid early is really fantastic for them, as they have much shorter shelf lives. It's very good for the future of the position. Elite RB's matter to their teams. They change the way a defense plays them. A player like Barkley can be a difference maker to the success and development of a potential franchise QB in Jones. He certainly has a much better chance with SB back there as opposed to Wayne Gallman. I think it's a good thing for football to see these elite players getting paid like elite players.

[nathanq42]

Quentin Nelson and Minkah Fitzpatrick make strong arguments for being more valuable than Barkley. And he is valuable for sure,

[FantasyFreak]

Quentin Nelson and Minkah Fitzpatrick make strong arguments for being more valuable than Barkley. And he is valuable for sure,

Sure. In the context of the Giants though, with a young QB in Jones, I'd argue Barkley is more valuable because Jones success and development is more likely with him than an average back. Nelson I could see the argument for, with the Giants.

[Cameron Giles]

I agree that when you look at a team like Tennessee, Derrick Henry is very important to what they do. They're a run heavy offense and he's the optimal RB for a team to wear you down with the run game. Nobody wants to tackle Derrick Henry 20-30 times a game.

But in the grand scheme of things, it doesn't matter. I think if your offense these days is built squarely around a high-carry RB, then you're kind of screwed.

On a similar thought, I'd argue that Carolina's offense relying too much on CMC checkdowns is great for the defense, because it means the ball isn't traveling downfield and you're adding more mileage to their central offensive weapon. Win-win.

[Cult of Dionysus]

Rivera was a massive idiot. He was pounding CMC in between tackles far more than necessary, on a losing team.

He never was creative on offense.

I suspect Rhule will make the Panthers offense shine, if not exploded in 2020.

[FantasyFreak]

I agree that when you look at a team like Tennessee, Derrick Henry is very important to what they do. They're a run heavy offense and he's the optimal RB for a team to wear you down with the run game. Nobody wants to tackle Derrick Henry 20-30 times a game.

But in the grand scheme of things, it doesn't matter. I think if your offense these days is built squarely around a high-carry RB, then you're kind of screwed.

On a similar thought, I'd argue that Carolina's offense relying too much on CMC checkdowns is great for the defense, because it means the ball isn't traveling downfield and you're adding more mileage to their central offensive weapon. Win-win.

The Titans made the conference championship, and had Gurley not been hurt in the Super Bowl 2 years ago, they probably would have won. I think it's really case dependant. They allow teams that don't have the luxury of an elite QB like Brady or Mahomes to compete. I'd argue Todd Gurley was just as big a difference maker as Khalil Mack for that 2 year stretch. The elite's of the position are definitely difference makers. There are so few teams with the luxury of elite coaching and elite QB play like the Pats and the Chiefs had. Ezekiel Elliot and even Demarco Murray before him were huge difference makers to that Cowboys team for a few years, and drastically shifted the fortunes of that franchise. The OL was certainly dominant, but it was maximized by their play.

I agree that a team can't be solely built around a high carry RB, but they definitely help the overall offense. The Rams had a pass game that worked well with Gurley for those years, the Cowboys and Dak were very efficient passing the ball, in large part due to Elliott, and that OL. They can certainly be a a centre piece and have success, as long as the offense has different functions to it.

[Ice]

No issue with the truly elite RB's getting their money. While he is getting paid top dollar for a RB it's still not really close to a few other positions. CMC is young and puts up WR numbers on top of his RB rushing numbers.

[Cameron Giles]

The Titans made the conference championship, and had Gurley not been hurt in the Super Bowl 2 years ago, they probably would have won. I think it's really case dependant. They allow teams that don't have the luxury of an elite QB like Brady or Mahomes to compete. I'd argue Todd Gurley was just as big a difference maker as Khalil Mack for that 2 year stretch. The elite's of the position are definitely difference makers. There are so few teams with the luxury of elite coaching and elite QB play like the Pats and the Chiefs had. Ezekiel Elliot and even Demarco Murray before him were huge difference makers to that Cowboys team for a few years, and drastically shifted the fortunes of that franchise. The OL was certainly dominant, but it was maximized by their play.

I agree that a team can't be solely built around a high carry RB, but they definitely help the overall offense. The Rams had a pass game that worked well with Gurley for those years, the Cowboys and Dak were very efficient passing the ball, in large part due to Elliott, and that OL. They can certainly be a a centre piece and have success, as long as the offense has different functions to it.

Don't get me wrong; I'm not saying that Derrick Henry, prime Todd Gurley, and Christian McCaffrey are not highly-talented and can't make a difference. Henry maximized the Titans elite run blocking this season with his style of play. Le'Veon Bell, for example, maximized the Steelers offensive line with his running style.

I'm just saying that in the grand scheme of things, it doesn't matter, because while the individual dropoff from Henry to an average back is notable, the team dropoff is not. Look at last year's 49ers team. They were elite at run blocking and were a contender without an elite back. The Patriots have constantly fielded great teams with good run blocking and no elite backs. The Eagles team that won years ago had nobody. Kansas City this year didn't have one. There are countless examples.

You're right. It's a great plan to compete when you don't have an ideal QB. If Blake Bortles is your QB, then having Leonard Fournette and a great line is awesome, but it makes you almost one-dimensional and isn't a good long-term plan to build a great team.

[ckrumm24]

It's worth it to hold these guys if you are a contender. If you are a year or two out, that's when I'm not willing to risk it. And I'm a big CMC fan.

100% agree. All the people suggesting to sell RBs on their second contract should be giving disclaimers for those of us contending. We should be holding. Sure, selling zeke or cmc earlier rather than later COULD help me down the road but it’s almost SURELY going to hurt my short term chances of winning a title. I guess there’s a chance you could nail it and every season you trade a stud veteran RB they fall off the cliff and you replaced them in an oncoming superstar rookie, but I don’t like that approach.

[CGW]

I agree that when you look at a team like Tennessee, Derrick Henry is very important to what they do. They're a run heavy offense and he's the optimal RB for a team to wear you down with the run game. Nobody wants to tackle Derrick Henry 20-30 times a game.

But in the grand scheme of things, it doesn't matter. I think if your offense these days is built squarely around a high-carry RB, then you're kind of screwed.

On a similar thought, I'd argue that Carolina's offense relying too much on CMC checkdowns is great for the defense, because it means the ball isn't traveling downfield and you're adding more mileage to their central offensive weapon. Win-win.

The Titans made the conference championship, and had Gurley not been hurt in the Super Bowl 2 years ago, they probably would have won. I think it's really case dependant. They allow teams that don't have the luxury of an elite QB like Brady or Mahomes to compete. I'd argue Todd Gurley was just as big a difference maker as Khalil Mack for that 2 year stretch. The elite's of the position are definitely difference makers. There are so few teams with the luxury of elite coaching and elite QB play like the Pats and the Chiefs had. Ezekiel Elliot and even Demarco Murray before him were huge difference makers to that Cowboys team for a few years, and drastically shifted the fortunes of that franchise. The OL was certainly dominant, but it was maximized by their play.

I agree that a team can't be solely built around a high carry RB, but they definitely help the overall offense. The Rams had a pass game that worked well with Gurley for those years, the Cowboys and Dak were very efficient passing the ball, in large part due to Elliott, and that OL. They can certainly be a a centre piece and have success, as long as the offense has different functions to it.

The RB position definitely matters and can be a significant advantage, with the caveat that it's for a short period of time.

Gurley and Henry are two excellent examples. Those teams would not had the success they did without those two. But it's short lived due to the nature of the position. Which is exactly the point many are making. It's not worth the money long term. A good QB can be valuable for a decade or longer. A good WR 5-10yrs. A good RB for maybe 3-5yrs.

I 100% agree with you on the early extension of these elite players. They need to get paid and they need to do it sooner than later. They shouldn't be forced into holding out as their rookie deals end trying to get 2nd contract.

[jenkins.math]

It's worth it to hold these guys if you are a contender. If you are a year or two out, that's when I'm not willing to risk it. And I'm a big CMC fan.

100% agree. All the people suggesting to sell RBs on their second contract should be giving disclaimers for those of us contending. We should be holding. Sure, selling zeke or cmc earlier rather than later COULD help me down the road but it’s almost SURELY going to hurt my short term chances of winning a title. I guess there’s a chance you could nail it and every season you trade a stud veteran RB they fall off the cliff and you replaced them in an oncoming superstar rookie, but I don’t like that approach.

If you had CMC last year and didn't win the title then you should be looking hard at your team and trying to figure out why. Especially if you were in a PPR format. So if you're in that format, you may only be a "contender" due to CMC having a historic season that will most likely be the pinnacle for him statistically. Which is all the more reason to sell.

[Forza_Azzurri]

Rivera was a massive idiot. He was pounding CMC in between tackles far more than necessary, on a losing team.

He never was creative on offense.

I suspect Rhule will make the Panthers offense shine, if not exploded in 2020.

I completely agree ... assuming his workload is reduced, he should have a better chance than most to extend his level of play into his late-20’s ... same goes for Kamar. But Mixon would have me worried.

[ckrumm24]

It's worth it to hold these guys if you are a contender. If you are a year or two out, that's when I'm not willing to risk it. And I'm a big CMC fan.

100% agree. All the people suggesting to sell RBs on their second contract should be giving disclaimers for those of us contending. We should be holding. Sure, selling zeke or cmc earlier rather than later COULD help me down the road but it’s almost SURELY going to hurt my short term chances of winning a title. I guess there’s a chance you could nail it and every season you trade a stud veteran RB they fall off the cliff and you replaced them in an oncoming superstar rookie, but I don’t like that approach.

If you had CMC last year and didn't win the title then you should be looking hard at your team and trying to figure out why. Especially if you were in a PPR format. So if you're in that format, you may only be a "contender" due to CMC having a historic season that will most likely be the pinnacle for him statistically. Which is all the more reason to sell.

I do not disagree with any of this. But, I don’t define “contender” as a guy who makes the playoffs because of one or two guys. I’m just pushing back on the notion that we should always be trying to sell at peak value because we play in dynasty. That thinking works with stocks, but while analogous in some ways, there is a difference between stocks and our dynasty assets. Our dynasty assets have value in addition to their “virtual currency” (picks, other players). In order to win we need our player (X) to produce more points than the other player (Y), even if player Y would yield us a greater return if we sold them. So, if I’m a “real” contender, It’s very unlikely you can make up for the points you lose trading away top players for other assets (at least consistently). Sorry to derail thread.