2020 GEDL Rookie Draft

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Madadamus
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Re: 2020 GEDL Rookie Draft

Postby Madadamus » Mon Apr 13, 2020 10:46 am

So, I am the new Swift owner. To be clear to start, it was two 2021 2nd's ;-) but it's still virtually a Mixon vs. Swift debate.

Anyone that knows me or is in any leagues of mine knows that I am probably the biggest ageist out there. The trade simply boils down to my philosophy which is determining the fine line between production and value. I try to win both, which is hard to do.

As for the specifics of the deal, Mixon was young coming out, so yes he is still yet to turn 24. His situation was awful last year and still put up great numbers especially as the season wore on. The situation is bound to get better with a likely new QB situation and improved offensive line. Clearly, Mixon is the much safer asset for 2020 and beyond. But my rationale and style of play doesn't work like that, and to me it's simple -- I am getting the same prospect (elite recruit, great production in college, 2 way player, high pedigree) 3 years younger and decent draft capital on top.

We see how quickly RB's fall off the map, so I tend to ride a RB on their rookie window and exit for a player I deem to be a safe replacement. I've done these types of trades for many years now; you win some, and you lose some. If Swift ends up being a semi bust, I lost out on a core asset. But, even if he's 80-90% of what Mixon is initially, I just extend the window 3 years longer, which is extremely long in fantasy and NFL years as FantasyFreak pointed out.

I get the argument that he's never played a down, or his situation is unknown. But in 2 weeks, Swift could also be going 1.01 and no one would even think of moving that pick for Mixon if he were to land somewhere solid. I also get two future picks, which in my opinion in this league are not as valuable but teams still do covet them. Rookie drafts are where I thrive and am so active trading, having extra picks allows you to control the draft and move around to target areas easily. Just look at how easy it was for Clarion to acquire Swift in the first place.

To me, it's a fair trade that should end up being a win for both players. I carry added risk taking on the unknown, so getting the extra picks to me was worth making the deal. Deals like this are always a fun debate and will be fun to look back on in a couple of years.
12 Team PPR Dynasty - DLFS
1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 2 RB/WR/TE, 1 QB/RB/WR/TE, 1 TE
QB: J. Burrow, M. Stafford, C. Wentz
RB: S. Barkley, D. Swift, J.K. Dobbins, C. Edwards-Helaire, R. Penny, G. Edwards, K. Drake
WR: T. Higgins, M. Evans, B. Aiyuk, C. Watson, K. Toney, M. Thomas, C. Ridley, C. Davis, J. Reagor
TE: D. Waller, E. Engram, H. Hurst, D. Njoku, G. Dulich, J. Akins
2023 Picks: 1st, 2nd, 2nd (mid), 3rd, 4th, 4th (mid)

12 Team PPR Dynasty
1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 2 RB/WR/TE, 1 QB/RB/WR/TE, 1 TE
QB: J. Herbert, M. Stafford, J. Winston, D. Lock, M. Mariota, J. Stidham, R. Fitzpatrick
RB: C. McCaffrey, A. Kamara, E. Elliott, J. Dobbin, J. Mixon, A. Mattison, J. White, L. Bell
WR: D. Moore, J. Jeudy, O. Beckham Jr., C. Claypool, C. Davis. D. Parker, L. Fitzgerald, B. Perriman, W. Snead
TE: E. Engram, C. Kmet, C. Herndon, K. Warring
2021 Picks: 1.10, 2.10, 3.10, 4.10

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Re: 2020 GEDL Rookie Draft

Postby FantasyFreak » Mon Apr 13, 2020 11:11 am

Madadamus wrote: Mon Apr 13, 2020 10:46 am

I get the argument that he's never played a down, or his situation is unknown. But in 2 weeks, Swift could also be going 1.01 and no one would even think of moving that pick for Mixon if he were to land somewhere solid. I also get two future picks, which in my opinion in this league are not as valuable but teams still do covet them. Rookie drafts are where I thrive and am so active trading, having extra picks allows you to control the draft and move around to target areas easily. Just look at how easy it was for Clarion to acquire Swift in the first place.

Same argument was used against Zeke, Barkley, and countless other players Not saying Swift is the level of prospect of those 2 specifically, he isn't. However he is widely considered a first round talent, and the best all round RB in this class. I see the rationale in your move. Whether or not it works out, the logic is sound.
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Re: 2020 GEDL Rookie Draft

Postby murphysxm » Mon Apr 13, 2020 11:20 am

clarion contrarion wrote: Mon Apr 13, 2020 10:36 am
I am hoping burrow uses mixon the way he used CEH .
Wouldn't this more benefit Gio?
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Re: 2020 GEDL Rookie Draft

Postby Ice » Mon Apr 13, 2020 11:35 am

FantasyFreak wrote: Mon Apr 13, 2020 10:26 am
OhCruelestRanter wrote: Mon Apr 13, 2020 10:16 am
FiremanEd wrote: Mon Apr 13, 2020 9:57 am

So to be not close you must have Swift > Mixon? Otherwise the delta for a ‘not close is whatever excess a 2021 2nd gives above the gap. Not sure that’s a ‘not close’.

Not sure the upside of Swift is much more than Mixon’s, with an improved offense and OL. Mixon is also not yet 24.

Curious take to not be close.
Yeah, that’s how I feel as well. How much more do you prefer Swift to Mixon to say it’s not close?
My take on the comment is as follows. He views Swift as a player who can produce similar numbers to Mixon. Swift is 21, and Mixon is almost 24. That is a big deal when dealing with RB's. That's basically 3 years of prime production that Swift offers going forward over Mixon. On top of that, you get a 2nd round rookie pick.
The post above nails my view but I do actually rate Swift's skill set higher. Mixon is a really good player on a pretty bad team. Mixon has never been great as a receiving back and two of his 3 years were under 4.2 YPC. Mixon has also been really week in the TD department with 17 rushing TD's in 3 years and zero years with double digit TD's when combined with receiving. Mixon's Potential vs Reality is suspect.

A better line would help but given I like Swift's talent better and his career should last longer it is a pretty easy choice for me.

FYI, I have Swift as the 1.1 in one QB leagues.
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Re: 2020 GEDL Rookie Draft

Postby MARKinMI » Mon Apr 13, 2020 2:58 pm

Madadamus wrote: Mon Apr 13, 2020 10:46 am So, I am the new Swift owner. To be clear to start, it was two 2021 2nd's ;-) but it's still virtually a Mixon vs. Swift debate.

Anyone that knows me or is in any leagues of mine knows that I am probably the biggest ageist out there. The trade simply boils down to my philosophy which is determining the fine line between production and value. I try to win both, which is hard to do.

As for the specifics of the deal, Mixon was young coming out, so yes he is still yet to turn 24. His situation was awful last year and still put up great numbers especially as the season wore on. The situation is bound to get better with a likely new QB situation and improved offensive line. Clearly, Mixon is the much safer asset for 2020 and beyond. But my rationale and style of play doesn't work like that, and to me it's simple -- I am getting the same prospect (elite recruit, great production in college, 2 way player, high pedigree) 3 years younger and decent draft capital on top.

We see how quickly RB's fall off the map, so I tend to ride a RB on their rookie window and exit for a player I deem to be a safe replacement. I've done these types of trades for many years now; you win some, and you lose some. If Swift ends up being a semi bust, I lost out on a core asset. But, even if he's 80-90% of what Mixon is initially, I just extend the window 3 years longer, which is extremely long in fantasy and NFL years as FantasyFreak pointed out.

I get the argument that he's never played a down, or his situation is unknown. But in 2 weeks, Swift could also be going 1.01 and no one would even think of moving that pick for Mixon if he were to land somewhere solid. I also get two future picks, which in my opinion in this league are not as valuable but teams still do covet them. Rookie drafts are where I thrive and am so active trading, having extra picks allows you to control the draft and move around to target areas easily. Just look at how easy it was for Clarion to acquire Swift in the first place.

To me, it's a fair trade that should end up being a win for both players. I carry added risk taking on the unknown, so getting the extra picks to me was worth making the deal. Deals like this are always a fun debate and will be fun to look back on in a couple of years.
I'd argue 2nd round picks have more value in a 14 team league like this than a 14 team league that drafts 3 or 4 weeks from now. Its pretty common for players to go in round two and later become first rounders a month from now after they land in a nice spot.

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Re: 2020 GEDL Rookie Draft

Postby moishetreats » Mon Apr 13, 2020 4:19 pm

Thank you, @Madadamus and @clarion contrarion. I REALLY appreciate you both sharing your thought-process!!
10 tms 27 plrs PPR
Start: 2QB 2RB 3WR 2TE 2Flex / best ball

QB: Herbert, Love, Rodgers, G Smith, Stidham, T Taylor, Hall
RB: McCaffrey, Mixon, Pacheco, Montgomery, Z White, Allgeier, Dillon
WR: Hill, St. Brown, Kupp, Allen, Lockett, B Johnson
TE: Kelce, Kmet, Kraft, Okonkwo, Dulcich, Tremble

2024: 2.09, 3.07, 3.08, 3.10, 4.08
2025: 2nd (x2), 4th, 5th (x2)
2026: 1st, 2nd (x2), 3rd, 4th, 5th



12 tms 22 active plyrs. Salary Cap $300 PPR
Start: 1QB 2RB 3WR 1TE 1SF 1Flex / best ball

QB: Lawrence (contract through 2026), Love ('24), Rodgers ('24), Stidham ('25), Lock ('25)
RB: Bijan Robinson ('25), Pollard ('27), Dillon ('24), Rodriguez ('24), Spiller ('24)
WR: G Wilson ('26), AJ Brown ('26), DJ Montgomery ('25)
TE: --
2024 Cap Spent: $186

IR: --
TAXI SQUAD (4 max): --

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Re: 2020 GEDL Rookie Draft

Postby FantasyFreak » Mon Apr 13, 2020 4:29 pm

Ice wrote: Mon Apr 13, 2020 11:35 am
FantasyFreak wrote: Mon Apr 13, 2020 10:26 am
OhCruelestRanter wrote: Mon Apr 13, 2020 10:16 am

Yeah, that’s how I feel as well. How much more do you prefer Swift to Mixon to say it’s not close?
My take on the comment is as follows. He views Swift as a player who can produce similar numbers to Mixon. Swift is 21, and Mixon is almost 24. That is a big deal when dealing with RB's. That's basically 3 years of prime production that Swift offers going forward over Mixon. On top of that, you get a 2nd round rookie pick.
The post above nails my view but I do actually rate Swift's skill set higher. Mixon is a really good player on a pretty bad team. Mixon has never been great as a receiving back and two of his 3 years were under 4.2 YPC. Mixon has also been really week in the TD department with 17 rushing TD's in 3 years and zero years with double digit TD's when combined with receiving. Mixon's Potential vs Reality is suspect.

A better line would help but given I like Swift's talent better and his career should last longer it is a pretty easy choice for me.

FYI, I have Swift as the 1.1 in one QB leagues.
Swift has never been a TD guy either. 20 rushing in 3 years. 5 receiving in 3 years. Taylor beat the rushing and equalled that receiving total this year alone, for comparison. I think Swift is a quality back, but the argument Mixon isn't a TD guy when comparing him to Swift who isn't either, isn't the strongest part of this argument.
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Re: 2020 GEDL Rookie Draft

Postby Ice » Mon Apr 13, 2020 5:02 pm

No idea if Swift will be a TD guy in the NFL.

Mixon really isn’t that guy IMO so I do mark him down for that aspect because he just doesn’t get enough receptions to offset this IMO. Actual TD scoring however doesn’t really factor in how I view a RB’s overall talent.

Fantasy wise though Mixon fell off from 9th in PPg in 2018 at 17.8 to 17th in 2019 at 12.98.

He could bounce back. While not close for me I can see both sides of the equation.

Mixon is the bird in the hand player here
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Re: 2020 GEDL Rookie Draft

Postby FantasyFreak » Mon Apr 13, 2020 8:56 pm

Ice wrote: Mon Apr 13, 2020 5:02 pm No idea if Swift will be a TD guy in the NFL.

Mixon really isn’t that guy IMO so I do mark him down for that aspect because he just doesn’t get enough receptions to offset this IMO. Actual TD scoring however doesn’t really factor in how I view a RB’s overall talent.

Fantasy wise though Mixon fell off from 9th in PPg in 2018 at 17.8 to 17th in 2019 at 12.98.

He could bounce back. While not close for me I can see both sides of the equation.

Mixon is the bird in the hand player here
I'm not arguing your overall point, I'm inclined to agree with you. Just that specific part of the argument.
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Re: 2020 GEDL Rookie Draft

Postby Goirish374 » Tue Apr 14, 2020 5:49 am

it's also not simply a question of the value difference.

from the perspective of team trajectory, this makes tremendous sense for clarion as he transitions from "all the picks" to "all the potential" to "all the points." on that journey, mixon makes more sense than swift even aside from their relative, subjective value positions.
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Re: 2020 GEDL Rookie Draft

Postby clarion contrarion » Tue Apr 14, 2020 9:53 am

I thought this league was awesome when I watched as a spectator built participating in this draft has become the new highlight of my dynasty experience especially the draft season part . My schedule has been far more cluttered than when I joined but it is still a blast researching players especially deep into the draft where we are now. I even have my son doing player write ups while I am at work and he is begging for more guys to profile .

I have a bunch of 6th round picks that I can take shots on guys that likely never have a bearing on any fantasy titles but will have meaning for at least a few months . Day 3 of the NFL draft will have me cheering or cursing every skill player selection likely as they hit or miss my long shot selections .
.....this has been a public service announcement from forum superstar clarion contrarion
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Re: 2020 GEDL Rookie Draft

Postby murphysxm » Tue Apr 14, 2020 3:21 pm

Love the Michael Warren pick at 4.10. I have a freshman there and got to watch him live quite a bit. Not the most elusive or fastest, but the kid doesn't go down
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Re: 2020 GEDL Rookie Draft

Postby MARKinMI » Wed Apr 15, 2020 4:25 am

clarion contrarion wrote: Tue Apr 14, 2020 9:53 am I thought this league was awesome when I watched as a spectator built participating in this draft has become the new highlight of my dynasty experience especially the draft season part . My schedule has been far more cluttered than when I joined but it is still a blast researching players especially deep into the draft where we are now. I even have my son doing player write ups while I am at work and he is begging for more guys to profile .

I have a bunch of 6th round picks that I can take shots on guys that likely never have a bearing on any fantasy titles but will have meaning for at least a few months . Day 3 of the NFL draft will have me cheering or cursing every skill player selection likely as they hit or miss my long shot selections .
That's awesome that your son is into this too. And yeah, my favorite part of this draft is the impact it has on my NFL draft watching experience. It adds stakes that weren't there before.

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Re: 2020 GEDL Rookie Draft

Postby Cult of Dionysus » Wed Apr 15, 2020 2:20 pm

The DLF Early Birds Special completed our 2020 rookie draft a few days ago. We are itching to publish a link here once the GEDL completes their draft. Just need the final four guys to take care of their managerial business in GEDL.

Our league is private at this time, so don't bother looking for it.

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Re: 2020 GEDL Rookie Draft

Postby Goirish374 » Wed Apr 15, 2020 2:41 pm

Cult of Dionysus wrote: Wed Apr 15, 2020 2:20 pm We are itching to publish a link here
thats great! can't wait to see it!
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