Cooper Kupp - Value Up?

[Phaded]

Woof.

[FantasyFreak]

Woof.

Yeah, he's terrible.

83/1033/8 through 14 games coming off an ACL tear in mid November last year.

[Phaded]

It's not that he's terrible - but his production is more scheme related than talent related and he cannot reliably be thought of as a WR1.

The Rams as a whole have been figured out and he's hard to trust as more than a backend WR2/WR3.

[FantasyFreak]

It's not that he's terrible - but his production is more scheme related than talent related and he cannot reliably be thought of as a WR1.

The Rams as a whole have been figured out and he's hard to trust as more than a backend WR2/WR3.

His numbers say otherwise, though. I agree he's not a WR1 talent at this point, but I'd still pay a late first plus for him. He's a good player, in the right scheme, and to do what he has coming off on that injury is not easy.

[Phaded]

Yeah as long as he can find that scheme that will see him consistently match up against linebackers, he'll be a WR1.

His current rank is simply an indictment of his hot start to the year. His average is allegedly 16.9 per game, a mark he has hit twice in the last eight games.

[ckrumm24]

It's not that he's terrible - but his production is more scheme related than talent related and he cannot reliably be thought of as a WR1.

The Rams as a whole have been figured out and he's hard to trust as more than a backend WR2/WR3.

This.
Why does everyone assume everything is so binary? He’s had a great year.. a WR1 year, but when he drops below 50% of snaps for a week (idc the reason) and his avg. target per game is drastically reduced, it tells me they don’t see him as a difference maker. I’m having a difficult time seeing him put up numbers near this good again. Downgrading to a WR2.

[Servo]

Wonder if there's a lingering injury or just he's been worn down over the course of this season.

What a frustrating year for LAR.

[bjd5211]

Seems like Higbee has taken over his role the last few weeks, which is fine by me because my one team with a Higbee share is in the title game, hopefully it continues.

[ckrumm24]

Luckily for owners he’s still produced, but if you watch the games in conjunction with the volume you realize why some pessimism is warranted.

[pvillebiker]

Smiling at the extreme swings in views on many (most?) of the Rams players in general and Kupp in particular. The Rams are clearly sick at this stretch of the season after all their success and it's not hard to figure out why. The combo of the league figuring out the McVay offense (does he have it in him to adjust next year in Belichickian fashion? time will tell won't it) and Gurley not capable of the volume of yester-year. Except maybe for the last few games of the year. So all Rams must suck and were all posers all along right? <in best Randy Moss voice> Come on man!!

With Gurley 75% of his former self, Cook struggling to get his health and confidence back, Goff rightly losing confidence, and McVay essentially being called out by the rest of the league as the backdrop and gimmicking the TE's into productivity...

Kupp is still the same guy he always was. Overestimated by some, underestimated by most. But a kick bleep real football player who produces above his athletic capabilities. Cooks musta' been a fake too with all those 1k receiving yard seasons too aye?

Who knows if the Rams and McVay are done, maybe they are. But I'd bet they are probably not. Not yet. Kupp is an excellent real football player. I absolutely still have him as a WR1. Okay, not *the* WR1, but he did legit raise the question earlier in the year if he had potential to one day get into that convo. But even with the recent slump (which all WR1's go thru), he outscored all of Diggs, Julio, Golladay, Evans, Keenan, Amari, A-Rob, Moore on the year. Wouldn't fault you if you took them over Kupp, but I'd still take Kupp over all those cats. Okay, except maybe Evans...and Amari.

D@mn the torpedoes!

[Cameron Giles]

Kupp is a high-end complimentary WR, who can produce WR1 numbers because of the types of routes he runs and the types of defenses he faces. Valuing him on the same level or better than players who actually produce elite numbers against primary coverage is and always was a mistake.

[Pullo Vision]

Fair point on relative valuations, but most of those "stances" were made 5-6 weeks ago at Kupp's relative peak and Devante ailing in a new offense with Rodgers struggling. Dynasty values change weekly as do relative player values, especially with win now vs rebuild teams. Adams is returning to form, but there are still big questions about the GB offense (see the 49'ers game last week?) and him too, averaging only 9.8 YPC since his return, slightly worse than Kupp's 10.2 YPC in same time period.

That's not right at all. If you do this, you'll drop players due to a short term injury or bad matchup(s). The most obvious example this year was at the beginning when Godwin was producing and Evans wasn't.

I seriously hope people new to dynasty aren't updating their rankings on a weekly basis.

[mild]

Kupp is a high-end complimentary WR, who can produce WR1 numbers because of the types of routes he runs and the types of defenses he faces. Valuing him on the same level or better than players who actually produce elite numbers against primary coverage is and always was a mistake.

This is it, right here.

For me, the eye test has never shown me anything other than a sure-handed possession receiver for Kupp.

He is excellent in this role. Can't overstate that enough - when the Rams are clicking, he's a great bet to rack up yardage. But the moment defenses focus on him (as shown in games against modern defenses that feature more than 1 quality shutdown CB/Safety - ie Pittsburgh, Baltimore, San Fran) he is shown for what he is, and exposed.

Meanwhile, on the other end of the spectrum - you've got Davante Adams as a true defense-breaking alpha WR1. Here's Xavier Rhodes - speaking before the season - and calling him one of his top 3 toughest receivers to cover in the league right now. Calls him "Unbelievable" in the same sentence as Julio and AB. This is high praise from a CB that's been seeing the #1 WR for his whole career. You need to pay attention when CB's say stuff like that. (And nobody is saying that about Kupp, I guarantee it)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F6kYFFoVOp4

If Kupp's value ever spikes again and he's trade-able for a true #1 WR - please, for the love of god, do it. I'd trade him for AJ Brown straight across right now if I owned Kupp. Just because the stats look the same for a bit doesn't mean they're the same kind of receiver.

[Phaded]

https://twitter.com/MattHarmon_BYB/stat ... 14464?s=19

I've never been a big Harmon fan but this is pretty spot on, he has an unprecedented role in a scheme that he excelled at. It's also fair to wonder if defenses are figuring it out or are going to figure it out.

[pvillebiker]

Fair point on relative valuations, but most of those "stances" were made 5-6 weeks ago at Kupp's relative peak and Devante ailing in a new offense with Rodgers struggling. Dynasty values change weekly as do relative player values, especially with win now vs rebuild teams. Adams is returning to form, but there are still big questions about the GB offense (see the 49'ers game last week?) and him too, averaging only 9.8 YPC since his return, slightly worse than Kupp's 10.2 YPC in same time period.

That's not right at all. If you do this, you'll drop players due to a short term injury or bad matchup(s). The most obvious example this year was at the beginning when Godwin was producing and Evans wasn't.

I seriously hope people new to dynasty aren't updating their rankings on a weekly basis.

Uhh sure it is... Not saying they radically change each week, but over several weeks or 5-6 weeks in this case can make a big difference. And nope nobody's saying drop players due to a short term injury or bad matchup...or a slump or a short hot streak. I'm not. That's silly. But games reveal insights in to players real value and change things. For example - which week did Godwin catch up (or almost) to Evans in dynasty rankings this year? DLF rankings has him within a few of Evans now. The answer is he moved up a bit each week or two. Honestly, one could even make a case that Godwin is every bit Evan's dynasty asset being more productive with same opportunity, cheaper in real life and younger, but I digress.