Cooper Kupp - Value Up?

[Cameron Giles]

https://twitter.com/MattHarmon_BYB/stat ... 14464?s=19

I've never been a big Harmon fan but this is pretty spot on, he has an unprecedented role in a scheme that he excelled at. It's also fair to wonder if defenses are figuring it out or are going to figure it out.

*Kupp gets a free release from the slot against a LB playing zone for a 27 yard reception*

Someone reading a box score: WHOA, I'D TRADE DAVANTE ADAMS FOR HIM FOR SURE.

[Hottoddies]

Fair point on relative valuations, but most of those "stances" were made 5-6 weeks ago at Kupp's relative peak and Devante ailing in a new offense with Rodgers struggling. Dynasty values change weekly as do relative player values, especially with win now vs rebuild teams. Adams is returning to form, but there are still big questions about the GB offense (see the 49'ers game last week?) and him too, averaging only 9.8 YPC since his return, slightly worse than Kupp's 10.2 YPC in same time period.

That's not right at all. If you do this, you'll drop players due to a short term injury or bad matchup(s). The most obvious example this year was at the beginning when Godwin was producing and Evans wasn't.

I seriously hope people new to dynasty aren't updating their rankings on a weekly basis.

Uhh sure it is... Not saying they radically change each week, but over several weeks or 5-6 weeks in this case can make a big difference. And nope nobody's saying drop players due to a short term injury or bad matchup...or a slump or a short hot streak. I'm not. That's silly. But games reveal insights in to players real value and change things. For example - which week did Godwin catch up (or almost) to Evans in dynasty rankings this year? DLF rankings has him within a few of Evans now. The answer is he moved up a bit each week or two. Honestly, one could even make a case that Godwin is every bit Evan's dynasty asset being more productive with same opportunity, cheaper in real life and younger, but I digress.

It's thinking like this that makes one my favorite type of trading partner. Stockmarket kind of valuations based on short term production are nice to capitalize on. I would gladly trade Godwin away for Evans or Kupp for Adams. I would even take a guy like Diggs over Kupp. Talent over situation, right?

[Shankopotamus]

Higbee has murdered Kupp in cold blood. Dude is basically kittle light.

[Phaded]

Higbee has honestly just taken over the literal role that Kupp had.

[Shoreline Steamers]

Higbee has murdered Kupp in cold blood. Dude is basically kittle light.

Yes

[Shoreline Steamers]

Higbee has honestly just taken over the literal role that Kupp had.

And yes. The emergence of Higbee, and two TE sets with Everett have sapped the role that Kupp previously played. He's still a nice player, but his situation has taken a turn for the worse with the play of those around him.

[FantasyFreak]

Higbee has honestly just taken over the literal role that Kupp had.

And yes. The emergence of Higbee, and two TE sets with Everett have sapped the role that Kupp previously played. He's still a nice player, but his situation has taken a turn for the worse with the play of those around him.

For sure. However, I expect different teams to call for different game plans. McVay is learning (I think) that one formula does not work. Kupp is still a great high end WR 2, and he will have his games where he will feast. The way they game planned tonight was very good. Having the extra TE helped in the run game, even though it wasn't great, and created a scenario that the 49ers weren't really prepared for. Having Goff being mobile, and creating misdirection and having him roll out vs a top end pass rush was great. Anyone who expected that stretch of time where Kupp was getting 15 targets a game to continue forever was delusional, but he's still a solid player in your lineup on a weekly basis.

People are short sighted in both directions. Kupp was never a 15 target WR1, and Higbee isn't going to render Kupp useless for the rest of his career. What seems to be happening, to my eyes, is McVay is adapting as an offensive mind. I think it's encouraging for anyone who has Rams players, especially people who have Goff. The idea that Higbee has taken over the role of Kupp on an indefinite basis is kind of silly, but it does show that McVay will game plan to beat specific opponents in different ways, which means there will be more ups and downs for certain players. Kupp is still finding the end zone, which is good, but regardless, Higbee helped the Rams offensively tonight, and has for a few weeks filling in for Everett. The fact they were both used tonight in 2 TE sets shows an adaptability McVay hasn't shown too much to this point, and I was impressed with what certainly looks like a step in the right direction for McVay and the offense, despite the loss.

Everett did not have a catch tonight, so I think it is quite possible that Higbee may take over the lead role in 1 TE sets, based on the last month. I was really impressed with what McVay conjured up tonight on offense, against that team. They got him the first time around, and he showed a guile and intelligence I haven't seen form him yet, as he adapted a game plan that was not based around 11 personnel at all compare to his previous success, in it's foundation.

[DJB]

Too many mouths to feed for anyone to become a WR1 in that offence. Not to mention the poor play by Goff week to week as well

[Vcize]

Thank goodness the guy seems to get redzone looks because it certainly looks like Woods has taken back the #1 WR role in this offense.

In the 6 games since the bye Woods has 6+ catches and 90+ yards in 5 of those 6 games.

[Cameron Giles]

Kupp's receiving yards by game since Week 5:

17
50
220 (vs. Bengals)
0
53
35
65
45
41
31

He was always going to regress from the unsustainable volume he was getting, but Woods and Higbee made it a lot worse.

Again, very good slot WR, but not a premier WR or a player you should be drafting as one.

[pvillebiker]

Interesting how the Rams offensive players have taken turns being top dog this year. Almost like the Rams are ensuring everybody has their turn? Beginning of the year Cooks and Woods couldn't get going. Now Woods has "taken over the WR1 role" and Higbee has murdered Kupp's role. Maybe. Higbee's serial killer days are prolly inversely proportional to Everett's health though. Feels like the Rams have just been getting thru the 2nd half of the season anyway they can...pretty unsuccessfully from the looks of it. McVay had his run with a healthy top-of-his-game Gurley that fueled the rest of the offense. Then the league figured it out and Gurley's health declined. Now it's time to reinvent or die.

Really curious to see what the Rams look like week 1 next season. Wonder if Gurley will be back (contract woes and all). Same for Cooks. Maybe they keep the stud RB focus and attempt to replace Gurley? Maybe they go to a throwback Pats-like 2-TE set with Higbee & Everett? They prolly don't need all of Cooks, Woods & Kupp if they do.

[bjd5211]

Really curious to see what the Rams look like week 1 next season. Wonder if Gurley will be back (contract woes and all). Same for Cooks. Maybe they keep the stud RB focus and attempt to replace Gurley? Maybe they go to a throwback Pats-like 2-TE set with Higbee & Everett? They prolly don't need all of Cooks, Woods & Kupp if they do.

Gurley isn't going anywhere, he hasn't even started that new contract yet, this year was the final year of his rookie contract and the new one kicks in next year. That is far too much guaranteed money and too big of a cap hit for the Rams to just cut before it has even started.

[pvillebiker]

Kupp's receiving yards by game since Week 5:

17
50
220 (vs. Bengals)
0
53
35
65
45
41
31

He was always going to regress from the unsustainable volume he was getting, but Woods and Higbee made it a lot worse.

Again, very good slot WR, but not a premier WR or a player you should be drafting as one.

So no chance Kupp has top 10 WR production again next season or the one after that then aye? Note even with the above drop, he's still overall PPR WR6 on the year, even with the Rams spreading the ball out lots more in the 2H.

Totally agree on the inevitable volume regression and said as much back when you initially made that point, even if truthfully I didn't expect *this* big a drop. However, I'd be as careful concluding the above data set is "the truth" compass for future Kupp production as you are in recommending discounting his 1st half of the season. I'd bet the truth is probably somewhere in between. Yes I'm an unapologetic Kupp dynasty truther, but I still see him as likely to put up WR1 #'s next season if/when the Rams figure out their schtuff. Could be exactly wrong, but that's the fun of it all.

[FantasyFreak]

Really curious to see what the Rams look like week 1 next season. Wonder if Gurley will be back (contract woes and all). Same for Cooks. Maybe they keep the stud RB focus and attempt to replace Gurley? Maybe they go to a throwback Pats-like 2-TE set with Higbee & Everett? They prolly don't need all of Cooks, Woods & Kupp if they do.

Gurley isn't going anywhere, he hasn't even started that new contract yet, this year was the final year of his rookie contract and the new one kicks in next year. That is far too much guaranteed money and too big of a cap hit for the Rams to just cut before it has even started.

His cap hit next year is large. In 2021, it's 8.4, with a cap increase, that isn't that much. 2022 He's definitely able to be jettisoned. I think he's got another 2 years, but I still believe Gurley will be used at the Goal Line, and Henderson will be mixed in more next year throughout the year. I don't believe they draft a RB early.

[Cameron Giles]

Kupp's receiving yards by game since Week 5:

17
50
220 (vs. Bengals)
0
53
35
65
45
41
31

He was always going to regress from the unsustainable volume he was getting, but Woods and Higbee made it a lot worse.

Again, very good slot WR, but not a premier WR or a player you should be drafting as one.

So no chance Kupp has top 10 WR production again next season or the one after that then aye? Note even with the above drop, he's still overall PPR WR6 on the year, even with the Rams spreading the ball out lots more in the 2H.

Totally agree on the inevitable volume regression and said as much back when you initially made that point, even if truthfully I didn't expect *this* big a drop. However, I'd be as careful concluding the above data set is "the truth" compass for future Kupp production as you are in recommending discounting his 1st half of the season. I'd bet the truth is probably somewhere in between. Yes I'm an unapologetic Kupp dynasty truther, but I still see him as likely to put up WR1 #'s next season if/when the Rams figure out their schtuff. Could be exactly wrong, but that's the fun of it all.

I'm not saying that Kupp can't produce WR1-like numbers, because he absolutely can. However, if you are trading for him or drafting him as a WR1, you are going to be disappointed long-term.