Cooper Kupp - Value Up?

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Re: Cooper Kupp is a WR1

Postby FantasyFreak » Fri Oct 04, 2019 7:56 pm

bjd5211 wrote: Fri Oct 04, 2019 7:08 pm
remedy29 wrote: Fri Oct 04, 2019 6:11 pm When does this discussion turn to Kupp being THE #1 fantasy WR?
Never.
This is the short answer, yes.
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Re: Cooper Kupp is a WR1

Postby remedy29 » Sat Oct 05, 2019 4:25 am

Kupp's 2018 AND 2019 weekly average over the first 5 games is about 22 ppg in PPR. Those are numbers of THE WR #1.
He has been the best WR on a top offense for 3 years now. His dynasty ranking is about to soar from his current WR22 ranking from September Mizelle ranking.

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Re: Cooper Kupp is a WR1

Postby dynastyninja » Sat Oct 05, 2019 5:43 am

Consistency is what will make him the WR1. He'll need a year or two of top 3 production like Michael Thomas did before he will be realistically in the conversation.

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Re: Cooper Kupp is a WR1

Postby Cameron Giles » Sat Oct 05, 2019 5:59 am

remedy29 wrote: Sat Oct 05, 2019 4:25 am Kupp's 2018 AND 2019 weekly average over the first 5 games is about 22 ppg in PPR. Those are numbers of THE WR #1.
He has been the best WR on a top offense for 3 years now. His dynasty ranking is about to soar from his current WR22 ranking from September Mizelle ranking.
There is no chance that Kupp is the top WR in a dynasty startup.

You have him on your team, but I seriously doubt even you would consider that.

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Re: Cooper Kupp is a WR1

Postby bjd5211 » Sat Oct 05, 2019 6:13 am

He could very well end up the #1 overall WR in scoring this year, but he will never be valued as the #1 overall asset at the WR position in Dynasty.

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Re: Cooper Kupp is a WR1

Postby thebeast » Sat Oct 05, 2019 7:32 am

bjd5211 wrote: Sat Oct 05, 2019 6:13 am He could very well end up the #1 overall WR in scoring this year, but he will never be valued as the #1 overall asset at the WR position in Dynasty.
What if he scores as the overall #1 WR this year and next year? How long did it take AB before people gave in and realized he was worth the top overall spot?

I am not sure it happens, but I know enough to never say never and I don’t think it’s that outlandish of a question.

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Re: Cooper Kupp is a WR1

Postby ninotoreS » Sat Oct 05, 2019 11:59 am

How often is there a consensus #1 overall WR? There's always a handful of super elite, and debate between them.

Is it possible Kupp enters that conversation at some point? Sure. Anyone declaring otherwise has a short memory; there was a time when people had the same skepticisim at the early breakout stage of guys like Antonio Brown ("Too slow! Too small! 5th round pick!"), Hopkins ("36th percentile SPARQ! He's not truly special"), Hill ("He's just a gadget! He did nothing in college").

But as others have posted, Kupp can't reasonably enter that conversation until he's been a statistical superstar for two or three consecutive years. So. Yeah. Hold your horses.
Last edited by ninotoreS on Sat Oct 05, 2019 12:04 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Cooper Kupp is a WR1

Postby Cameron Giles » Sat Oct 05, 2019 12:01 pm

thebeast wrote: Sat Oct 05, 2019 7:32 am
bjd5211 wrote: Sat Oct 05, 2019 6:13 am He could very well end up the #1 overall WR in scoring this year, but he will never be valued as the #1 overall asset at the WR position in Dynasty.
What if he scores as the overall #1 WR this year and next year? How long did it take AB before people gave in and realized he was worth the top overall spot?

I am not sure it happens, but I know enough to never say never and I don’t think it’s that outlandish of a question.
I'm having trouble thinking of a player who was the WR1 in dynasty startups, whose value wasn't mirrored in real life to some degree. Antonio Brown eventually was viewed as the top WR in dynasty and in the NFL.

I don't think Cooper Kupp would make any Top 10 WR lists right now. But, if he did have an Antonio Brown-like renaissance, then sure. Then he'd be viewed as one of the best WR's ever.

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Re: Cooper Kupp is a WR1

Postby ninotoreS » Sat Oct 05, 2019 12:07 pm

Cameron Giles wrote: Sat Oct 05, 2019 12:01 pm I don't think Cooper Kupp would make any Top 10 WR lists right now.
Not any? No. He'd make a few. The bold hot-takers, the believers hoping to be able to say "I saw it coming!". There's always a few in every field of pundits.

It's not as if what Kupp's doing right now is a total shock. He owns the Rams rookie yardage record, and he was on a 16-game pace for top-10 numbers last year. Kupp has just picked up where he left off: a dynasty arrow pointing steeply upward. Even his apparent long-term situation is close to perfect. Presently, the cause for pessimism is starved, making it easier for the bold takes.
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Re: Cooper Kupp is a WR1

Postby bjd5211 » Sat Oct 05, 2019 12:23 pm

Cameron Giles wrote: Sat Oct 05, 2019 12:01 pm
thebeast wrote: Sat Oct 05, 2019 7:32 am
bjd5211 wrote: Sat Oct 05, 2019 6:13 am He could very well end up the #1 overall WR in scoring this year, but he will never be valued as the #1 overall asset at the WR position in Dynasty.
What if he scores as the overall #1 WR this year and next year? How long did it take AB before people gave in and realized he was worth the top overall spot?

I am not sure it happens, but I know enough to never say never and I don’t think it’s that outlandish of a question.
I'm having trouble thinking of a player who was the WR1 in dynasty startups, whose value wasn't mirrored in real life to some degree. Antonio Brown eventually was viewed as the top WR in dynasty and in the NFL.

I don't think Cooper Kupp would make any Top 10 WR lists right now. But, if he did have an Antonio Brown-like renaissance, then sure. Then he'd be viewed as one of the best WR's ever.
He's my #10 overall WR right now.

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Re: Cooper Kupp is a WR1

Postby pvillebiker » Sat Oct 05, 2019 4:19 pm

bjd5211 wrote: Sat Oct 05, 2019 6:13 am He could very well end up the #1 overall WR in scoring this year, but he will never be valued as the #1 overall asset at the WR position in Dynasty.
Such certainty. What is that based on? He's leading the league in every receiving category - receiving yards, receptions and TD's at the 1/4 pole (includes Thursday game and Keenan's gonna retake it, but still). Most impressively he's overall WR2 for average weekly PPR points, just a hair behind Keenan.

Having said that, I'd put the odds fairly low that he ever becomes the overall dynasty WR1 and stays there. But it absolutely could happen. It's possible. All he's gotta do is keep producing like he has. Besides the question was really when will Kupp be in the conversation as the overall WR1. Honestly, there are only 6 or 8 WR's I'd easily take over him now. About 1/2 that many or so I'd have as roughly the same as him.

As long as he & Goff are together in that McVay O though and he's healthy, that dude's gonna keep balling out. Perennial top 5 production would not surprise in the least. What's that worth? At least a ticket to the overall WR1 conversation at some point.

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Re: Cooper Kupp is a WR1

Postby ArrylT » Sat Oct 05, 2019 9:06 pm

I certainly have no objections or problems with any owner that wishes to consider him the #1 WR in fantasy - however it is highly unlikely he will ever reach that in consensus valuation.

1 - Will be 27

Too many owners value age as a factor, and 27-28 is when enough owners start to devalue players, not put them on the top of the mountain. Only WRs who have already reached the pinacle earlier, have a realistic chance to hold onto the top spot(s).

2 - Will have - and that assumes he finishes with a WR1 season - exactly 1 season of WR1 production

Perhaps he would have had 2 seasons if he had played a full season in 2018. But he does not.

Enough owners need proof to put a WR that highly. Very few owners put Allen Robinson as their #1 WR after his 1st WR1 season in 2015. Yes he did make the 1st round of startups, but as WR 6-7-8. So that will be held against Cooper Kupp. Just like it has been against Amari Cooper, Stefon Diggs, Brandin Cooks and/or Robert Woods.

3 - Was never considered an elite prospect

If he was, he would have been a consensus 1st round selection, rather than the late 2nd, 3rd round rookie pick that he was. Because of this there is not enough of a foundation of early enough support to push him into that conversation, or get a groundswell of owners to draft him consistently in the 1st round of startups.

A WR who was going in the 4th or 5th round of startups this past off-season just does not have the support needed to carry him into 1st round consideration. Heck even Antonio Brown did not truly make it as #1 WR for long (go back and review Mizelle ADP for 2013-2015 for how long it took him to climb) - again because of humble beginnings. By the time enough owners were true believers, Reason #1 came into play.

4 - Too much competition

While there may not be, especially with the JJSS slow start, Tyreek hill concerns or lack of a 1st round WR having broken out since 2014, a consensus target for the new #1 WR - there remain too many 26-28 year old WRs with longer histories of production in guys like Thomas, Hopkins, Beckham, Evans and or Allen. If this was a 1st past the post type vote, maybe he could sneak through. But I just do not see enough owners making trades or doing startup picks thinking Cooper Kupp > than that collection.

Nonetheless I do hope that there will be Kupp defenders and that he will make a strong enough impression in 2019 to at least earn some consideration for Round 1 talk. Because the more the merrier imo. We need more variety, not less. Owners need to spend more time doing what is good for their teams and less time following the herd. So if you as an owner truly believe in Cooper Kupp as #1 WR overall - I respect that. I merely caution against getting others to accept it.
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Re: Cooper Kupp is a WR1

Postby Mike from Canada » Sat Oct 05, 2019 9:10 pm

Great post.

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Re: Cooper Kupp is a WR1

Postby FantasyFreak » Sat Oct 05, 2019 9:47 pm

thebeast wrote: Sat Oct 05, 2019 7:32 am
bjd5211 wrote: Sat Oct 05, 2019 6:13 am He could very well end up the #1 overall WR in scoring this year, but he will never be valued as the #1 overall asset at the WR position in Dynasty.
What if he scores as the overall #1 WR this year and next year? How long did it take AB before people gave in and realized he was worth the top overall spot?

I am not sure it happens, but I know enough to never say never and I don’t think it’s that outlandish of a question.
Apples and oranges. Kupp has never even faced press coverage. AB is not in the realm of conversation as someone to compare him to for multiple years of the WR1 numbers, regardless of how we feel about him as a person. Kupp is a WR1, right now. Any conversation of Kupp as THE WR 1 is wasting time and way too premature at this point. JJSS was well on his way to claiming that spot before the season by many (including me) before Ben got hurt and things can change rapidly. JJSS is however still 22, whereas Kupp is 26 and has 2 other well established WR's taking coverage away, including safeties dealing with the nightmare of Cooks/Gurley.

I really liked Kupp coming out of college, and thought he'd be a good NFL receiver, and he is. He's also maximizing his skill set and situation right now. To think of him as THE WR1 in a dynasty context, or even considering him that, is such a redraft/short sighted mentality, IMO. He's never finished as a WR1 and is 26. Hie's put together about 10-12 really good games between 2 different years, with zone coverage and other really good WR's taking pressure away form him. Get a grip. He's should be nowhere near a top 5ish startup pick at this point.
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Re: Cooper Kupp is a WR1

Postby bjd5211 » Sun Oct 06, 2019 6:19 am

thebeast wrote: Sat Oct 05, 2019 7:32 am
bjd5211 wrote: Sat Oct 05, 2019 6:13 am He could very well end up the #1 overall WR in scoring this year, but he will never be valued as the #1 overall asset at the WR position in Dynasty.
What if he scores as the overall #1 WR this year and next year? How long did it take AB before people gave in and realized he was worth the top overall spot?

I am not sure it happens, but I know enough to never say never and I don’t think it’s that outlandish of a question.
Once he's had these 2 (theoretical) #1 WR years, he'll already be 28 years old, which is about the same age Julio was when everyone decided his age was becoming a negative on his value, and Kupp is no Julio.

I believe ArrylT and FantasyFreak sufficiently explained all the reasons as to why Kupp will never be valued as the #1 overall WR. He is very good though, and I've already said he's #10 overall for me, but that gap is not one he will ever fully close.


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