Cooper Kupp - Value Up?

[ArrylT]

I think it is slowly becoming apparent that we should no longer be considering a WR1 as a top 12 WR but rather top 14 or top 16. Maybe even top 20. We already know the difference between WR #1 overall and WR #12 is usually much greater than that of WR #12 and WR #24.

The difference between a low WR1 and a high WR2 can be as little as 7-15 points each year. Basically 1-2 TDs either way could turn your WR1 into a WR2 or vice versa.

So it seems like a waste of time to dispute that Cooper Kupp could not be a WR1. Last year the difference between WR12 and Kupp was 45.6 points. That is less than 3 points a game. Give Kupp 1 extra reception of 10 yards a game and 2 TDs total over 16 games and poof Kupp would be a WR1 last year.

Last year Kupp was basically averaging 12 ppg. Prior to this week, Kupp was at 15 ppg. 15 ppg was enough in both 2016 and 2017 to make a WR a top 12 WR if they played 16 games at 15 ppg.

Remember this was BEFORE Week IV monster game. We can assume that it is possible that there will be some clunkers - but basically they will balance out the monster game and Kupp worst case scenario now MAY be 15 ppg. Of course thanks to his monster game his ppg is now at 21.

The problem is, imo, too many people hear WR1 and think top 3-5 WR. It is time people think outside the box, change their perspective and realize that there are more than 24 WRs that can on any given year due to opportunity, target volume, luck, and injury (to someone else) have the potential to be a WR1, even if they are not likely to be a top 6 WR.

Basically Kupp can be a WR2 for the season, a weekly WR3 and a boom/bust WR1 all at once. How it all ends will depend on too many factors yet to be determined but keep an open mind that Kupp having a top 12 PPR finish is well within the realm of possibility. I believe Kupp was already projected as a top 18 WR before Week IV by sites that do "rest of season production projection" - I am curious to see what his projection will be after Week IV finishes.

[Ice]

By NFL standards he would be a WR3.

Fantasy wise he is a solid WR2. Kupp is a beneficiary due to the opposing teams putting their best DB on Cooks. Great player to own in fantasy as long the Rams remain intact.

[ImaRounder]

But he’s white

Sure but what he lacks in explosiveness, he more than makes up for with football savvy and just a real feel for the game. He’s quicker than he is fast.

His grit and want-to are off the charts.

From what I hear he’s the first guy in the facility, and always the last to leave. A real gym rat.

Sort of reminds me of 2017 Chris Hogan, or maybe Adam Thielen. Definitely some Jordy (in his prime) to Kupp’s game as well.

Lol this hilarious.

Lukky quoted every analyst about any white skill position player.

[Csl312]

But he’s white

Sure but what he lacks in explosiveness, he more than makes up for with football savvy and just a real feel for the game. He’s quicker than he is fast.

His grit and want-to are off the charts.

From what I hear he’s the first guy in the facility, and always the last to leave. A real gym rat.

Sort of reminds me of 2017 Chris Hogan, or maybe Adam Thielen. Definitely some Jordy (in his prime) to Kupp’s game as well.

Just here to say bravo I'm surprised this seems to have sailed over so many heads.

[John Paul]

I traded Allen Robinson for him, pre FA because I just don't like Bortles. Then FA comes along and Robinson goes to Chicago, I regret my decision. I don't regret anything now. Kupp will continue to be a PPR monster. Proud owner.

[dynastyninja]

I think Kupp owners should be immensely excited, but I'd still prefer ARob to him.

[DinoDynasty]

By NFL standards he would be a WR3.

Fantasy wise he is a solid WR2. Kupp is a beneficiary due to the opposing teams putting their best DB on Cooks. Great player to own in fantasy as long the Rams remain intact.

When he finished as a WR2 as a rookie, I’m guessing it was because Sammy?

[ninotoreS]

... Watkins is the third option in his offense...
I would demote all those names down the list, and put Kupp right beside Golladay and Thielen.

I don't really agree that Sammy should be moved down the list because of competition from Hill/Kelce. You could make a pretty similar argument with respect to Hill/Kelce or any of the Rams receivers (particularly since they have Gurley getting 5 targets/game while Hunt's only got 3 targets all season). Sammy has 20 targets to Hill's 19 through 3 weeks, so he's not the clear #3 in terms of target share. Kupp only has 24 targets in one extra game (13 through week 3).

Kupp is ascending, and moving past Woods for target-share by '19 isn't just plausible, it's probable.

Watkins is descending (has been for a few years), and he's much, much less likely to move past superstuds Hill and Kelce.

[hoos89]

Kupp is ascending, and moving past Woods for target-share by '19 isn't just plausible, it's probable.

Watkins is descending (has been for a few years), and he's much, much less likely to move past superstuds Hill and Kelce.

There's not really a clear trend this season that Kupp is going to move ahead of Woods. That offense spreads it around pretty evenly.

Watkins has not been "descending" for a few years. He was hampered by injury issues (particularly the foot), so if you're concerned about injuries then sure, but that's not the same thing as him falling off talent-wise or losing targets or something. He's still a very talented WR. Apparently was a bad fit for the Rams...but he's doing pretty well so far with the Chiefs. He's trending up right now, not down. Also not sure Hill and Kelce really count as "superstuds"...I mean they're really good but they're not OBJ and Gronk in his prime or anything. Watkins appears to be carving out a solid role in that offense that is distinct from and complimentary to what Kelce and Hill do, and suggesting that he's clearly third in line is particularly ridiculous given that he has more targets than Hill so far this season. Perhaps you're forgetting just how elite Watkins has shown he's capable of being but I suggest you take a look at his 2nd half of 2015 stats (35/679/6 the final 6 games of the season, which was his second year in the league). His career went off the rails a bit because of the injuries I mentioned above or else he might be talked of in the same breath as OBJ and Thomas right now.

[ninotoreS]

There's not really a clear trend this season that Kupp is going to move ahead of Woods.

It's inference based on present career trajectory, and context.

As I said, Kupp is ascending. Right now, subjectively (eye-test) and objectively (8th or 9th in yards per route run -- I forget which -- and 10th and 4th respectively in DYAR and DVOA as a rookie). While Kupp as a rookie was already Woods' equal in performance (their respective YPRR and PFF grades almost matched), Woods has probably reached his ceiling as a player in his 6th season.

Maybe what I mean by 'ascending' is not understood. Kupp is getting better. He's already quite good, and hasn't reached his ceiling. Also considering his situation (a mutually ascending offense, ascending team, ascending young QB, and close personal relationship with said QB), everything is an arrow pointing way up in dynasty.

Watkins has not been "descending" for a few years

He hasn't returned to his '15 form in going on three years now. This is categorical 'descent'.

DBs are pressing him and it's working. It didn't used to; DBs once granted Watkins lots of cushion at the line (like they do with Hill now) because they feared his speed... they don't fear his speed now.

His average yards of separation has also been cut in half. His YPR has fallen.

He was hampered by injury issues (particularly the foot), so if you're concerned about injuries then sure.

Exactly -- all those injuries have apparently diminished him, probably the lower leg injuries in particular.

We've seen this story before: Nicks, Hakeem.

but that's not the same thing as him falling off talent-wise

But it literally is?

He's still a very talented WR.

Not if he's athletically diminished.

Apparently was a bad fit for the Rams

Yes.

McVay's offenses to this point have always specifically tried to feature a consistently effective field-stretching deep-threat... which Watkins hasn't been since '15.

The Rams hoped Watkins would return to '15 form and fulfill that role, and paid a lot to take the chance. He didn't pan out, so they jettisoned him.

...but he's doing pretty well so far with the Chiefs.

He's been a fantasy WR3, and PFF's 34th best graded WR.

He's trending up right now, not down.

A former 1.4 pick is not supposed to be a fantasy WR3 in his 5th year.

Also not sure Hill and Kelce really count as "superstuds"

Kelce is the second best TE on the planet and Hill is averaging over 100 yards a week.

Hill is PFF's third best graded WR, with an incredible grade of 88.3. Watkins is at 69.3.

The present performance gap between Hill and Watkins is vast.

Watkins appears to be carving out a solid role in that offense that is distinct from and complimentary to what Kelce and Hill do, and suggesting that he's clearly third in line is particularly ridiculous given that he has more targets than Hill so far this season.

He's averaging 59 yards a week and has been far less effective with his targets than both Hill and Kelce.

Perhaps you're forgetting just how elite Watkins has shown he's capable of being

I haven't forgotten '15, obviously. Nor have I forgotten how sky high I was on him coming out of Clemson.

The point is Watkins is not the same player he once was.

This is what I mean by 'descending'.

[skip]

Kelce is the second best TE on the planet and Hill is averaging over 100 yards a week.

The present performance gap between Hill and Watkins is vast.

I'm not exactly sure why a thread on Kupp has devolved to discussing KC WRs, but you can just as well point out different stats...

Hill's averages are buoyed by a monster week one. The last two weeks, Watkins has more yardage in each week. Breaking down scoring, the two produced nearly identical fantasy points in week two. Hill had more in week one. Watkins had more in week three. To say the gap is "vast" is simply not true.

"Far less effective" than Kelce based on targets? (I didn't quote this one)... Kelce has 26 targets and is 16-229. Watkins has 20 targets and is 14-176. He's catching a higher percentage of targets and they have identical yards per target (8.8).

[hoos89]

Descending means he's actively trending down. Watkins is not actively trending down: his value is trending up after two strong outings in a row.

What you consider a superstud is subjective I guess, but in fantasy terms Kelce is valued in the 20s. Hill is typically in the teens. I don't consider either valuation to be "super" stud.

Also kind of subjective to say that Kupp is clearly going to keep getting better, but Woods is not...particularly given that Woods is on track for a career year.

[trc]

Also kind of subjective to say that Kupp is clearly going to keep getting better, but Woods is not...particularly given that Woods is on track for a career year.

No no - you can only apply positive outcome for the player you like, no negative and only negative for every other player /s

[bsp27]

yeah...no. Classic overreaction to small sample sizes

[thebeast]

yeah...no. Classic overreaction to small sample sizes

So last year a guy in my league made two trades near mid season.

Trade 1 was Coleman and two first for Tyreek and 2 seconds.

Trade 2 was Luck for Mahommes straight up.

Everyone ridiculed him, but he saw what was happening before everyone else. Is this thread a ‘classic overreaction’ or is it seeing what is happening before everyone else? How long did it take for people to accept Baldwin, Theilen, Edelman, AB, Tyreek, etc for what they are? Kupp is not some scrub that all of a sudden has had a nice run, he had a nice year last year as a rookie and looks to be taking a step forward. Will he be a WR1, maybe, maybe not, but I do know that he is likely undervalued in most leagues.