RB Analysis Part Two (RB5-RB8) Plus Top 8 Rank So Far

[MEuRaH]

The first article (RB ADPs 1-4) posted last week. The 2nd article on RBs is about to post and will have more info than what I'm posting below. Once it does I will edit this sentence. Here is a summary, but I even put a TL;DR at the bottom anyway:

Clyde Edwards-Helaire (aka CEH), LSU, ADP RB5
--- Lacks top end speed but his sudden burst and quickness makes up for it.
--- Had a 1.60 10-yard split which is similar to other top backs in the class (Swift = 1.59 for example).
--- At 5'7" he's shorter than desired, but unlike shorter backs he has heft (207 pounds).
--- Some rookie named Joe Burrow called him the best athlete on an LSU team stacked with NFL talent.
--- His pass-catching and route running might be the best of any RB in the draft.

I have CEH RB3 on my ranks because of his very high floor, but he also has a lower ceiling than the other top backs in this class (NOTE: Not a "low" ceiling, just lower by comparison). He does not have the potential of Swift/Dobbins/Taylor because of his lack of size and speed. Landing spot could push him down to RB4 or lower for me. If by some miracle he gets a great landing spot and Swift/Dobbins/Taylor do not, he could vault up to 1.01. Improbable (99% this won't happen) but not impossible.

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Zack Moss, Utah, ADP RB6
--- Under-performed at the combine, failing to reach nearly every metric standard for RBs.
--- Slow 4.65 40.
--- Most of his highlights are goal line or red zone carries.
--- Runs primarily out of power.

TD dependent flex at the pro level, possibly more for a short period if drafted to a team with little else to work with. I am not looking to acquire him unless it's for a very late pick. How is he 6th in ADP?

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AJ Dillon, Boston College, ADP RB7
--- HUGE back, 6'0" 247 pounds, ran a 4.53 40. Wow.
--- Highest vertical and broad jumps at the combine... AT 247 POUNDS!
--- Excellent 3-cone to show agility.... how does he do it?
--- His tape mostly matches his combine, somewhat of a red flag because they should be perfect matches. This gives me pause.
--- Runs power and zone, so transition to the NFL should be cake.

I really like this RB. I think I'd easily feel comfortable drafting him in the late 1st, even though he's being drafted much later than that. AJD would be a great early-to-mid 2nd round selection. This is perhaps the most-underrated back I've reviewed so far. There's almost no mention of him anywhere as a guy to target, but he's definitely on my list the same way Singletary was last year.

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Ke’Shawn Vaughn, Vanderbilt, ADP RB8
--- 2 years older than nearly every rookie RB in the draft.
--- Lost his starting job with Illinois and transferred.
--- Ran power, coached to success (not a good thing).
--- Leans in his cuts.
--- Not the smartest kid, possibly the worst interviews I've ever seen.

I wish him the best but he's a hard pass for me. I will not be selecting him in any rookie draft as I have him rated very low.

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TL;DR
My current ranks of the 8 I've evaluated & that I've shared: Landing spot could change this order.
1) Dobbins (most pro ready, high floor/ceiling)
2) Swift (98% pro ready, high floor/ceiling)
3) CEH (high floor, PPR back, size/speed concerns)
4) Jonathan Taylor* (highest ceiling but lowest floor. High risk/reward.)
5) AJ Dillon (best value in the draft. #1 target for the 2nd round or late 1st if needed)
---------- I would draft the above, I am not drafting the below ----------
6) Cam Akers (QB-turned-RB, missing lots of skills, seems to rely on talent too much)
7) Zack Moss (So slow. TD dependent RBBC guy.)
8) Ke'Shawn Vaughn (Worst value in the draft. Wasted pick, stay away.)

*If you're chasing 'best possible player' and you don't mind risk, this should be your pick at 1.01. I have him in my "I would draft" category but I also think he has the highest bust potential of that group. Unless he falls tremendously in the NFL or fantasy draft, I will not be selecting him. I am actively targeting the other 4.

[vflgladiators]

You need to hire Vaughn or Darrel Henderson to talk you out of jail time. Who you hiring as your lawyer? But on a serious note, awesome writeup. Dillon has me intrigued.

[Pac_Eddy]

Nice writeup. I like that you're being careful with words so as not to allow people to make assumptions about floor, ceiling, & tiers.

[Cameron Giles]

Thanks for the writeup.

Dillon has eerily similar combine results as Derrick Henry. Henry is a better back, but Dillon's production was not that far off despite playing on a worse team. My only pause with Dillon is that if Henry is what we hope he is, then we have to consider that it took basically 3 years for a team like the Titans to recognize the talent and build the offense around it.

But he is potentially excellent value at the back half of the 1st round. Not worried that he'll likely be playing with a 3rd down back forever, because he has the skillset and talent to maximize the early down role.

[mgscott]

I like your call on Dillon as well. He may not have the highest ceiling due to being paired with another back, but if he gets in the right situation he could excel.

Thanks

[OhCruelestRanter]

Thanks for sharing. I like Dillon a lot as well, but I really wonder about his draft spot. There’s very few spots where he’s going to be an obvious starter; I think it’s more likely he ends up behind James Conner or Lev Bell or Kerryon Johnson. I’m hoping that he gets drafted late enough that he falls to the mid-late second, but early enough that he’ll presumably get some opportunity.

One thing that I’ve noticed with amateur film analysis is that guys like Akers, who are raw but athletic, are almost always undervalued, while guys like CEH, who are polished but limited, tend to be over-valued.

Spectacular hedge on Taylor- he’s “the most overrated back” in the draft, but also “highest ceiling” and “if you’re chasing best possible player and you don’t mind risk, this should be your pick at 1.01.” You’ve set yourself up so that no matter what happens with him, you won’t be wrong. Impressive.

Are you planning on evaluating Antonio Gibson as a RB?

[MEuRaH]

One thing that I’ve noticed with amateur film analysis is that guys like Akers, who are raw but athletic, are almost always undervalued, while guys like CEH, who are polished but limited, tend to be over-valued.

Makes sense to me. I want RBs who can perform right away, as the best production age range for a RB is 24-26 which is sooner than later for most. Derrick Henry was also raw and athletic, but took him to his 4th year to develop. I wonder how many people drafted him in 2016 and then sold at a loss later on while waiting for him to produce to his full potential. I'll bet it's pretty high.

I drafted Singletary in either the 2nd or 3rd round last year because of my assumption in immediate production. It paid off, as he helped me take 1st in regular season standings in my PPR league, and then I managed to sell him for the 1.10 as I do not think his play is sustainable at his size.

Spectacular hedge on Taylor- he’s “the most overrated back” in the draft, but also “highest ceiling” and “if you’re chasing best possible player and you don’t mind risk, this should be your pick at 1.01.” You’ve set yourself up so that no matter what happens with him, you won’t be wrong. Impressive.

Are you planning on evaluating Antonio Gibson as a RB?

The bottom line with JT is that I see him as an unfinished product with the potential for greatness. I also don't have high hopes for his 2020 numbers. RB2 or later is my projection, even in the best of landing spots. I believe both of these takes puts me in the minority.

I've reviewed more RBs than I can count this year being a shut-in and all, but I'm not going to bring them up until my articles post. Anyone should feel free to do it though. I'd love to read some thoughts on late round players.

Dillon has eerily similar combine results as Derrick Henry. Henry is a better back, but Dillon's production was not that far off despite playing on a worse team. My only pause with Dillon is that if Henry is what we hope he is, then we have to consider that it took basically 3 years for a team like the Titans to recognize the talent and build the offense around it.

Yep. Henry was a late 1st in fantasy drafts. AJD is currently lower on ADP. I think your take pretty much sums up why.

[FantasyFreak]

Nice write up Mike. I love Dobbins. Have him slightly above Swift as well. It seems tape people really like JK. Matt Waldman has JK at 1 as well. Metrics guys should love him too, if they trust his athletic testing from a few years ago. Really safe player IMO. Curious what you think Akers ceiling is. I see a ton of raw, but unrefined ability. I wonder how much of his inconsistencies with vision are from his lack of trust from years of a terrible OL.

Seems like your Taylor take is covering all possibilities.

[OhCruelestRanter]

I meant more “are you considering Antonio Gibson to be a RB or WR?”

[OhCruelestRanter]

I want RBs who can perform right away, as the best production age range for a RB is 24-26 which is sooner than later for most. Derrick Henry was also raw and athletic, but took him to his 4th year to develop. I wonder how many people drafted him in 2016 and then sold at a loss later on while waiting for him to produce to his full potential. I'll bet it's pretty high.

This is something you've said multiple times, and I don't think it's true. First "took him to his 4th year to develop" is unequivocally false. Derrick Henry was the PPR RB13 in his 3rd year. Whatever you think about Henry, saying it took until his 4th year to develop is just wrong.

Second, the speculation about drafting him in 2016 and selling at a loss is harder to prove, but here goes. When Derrick Henry was a rookie, his February-September ADP ranged from 81.83 (August) to 62.50 (June). Let's say, for the sake of the argument, that you bought him in June, at his highest value. Here's what his value has been for the rest of his career after the season:
2016- October it was 59.33, November it was 48.25.
2017- The latest his ADP every fell was 49.33, earliest was 41.25.
2018- in October, November, and December his ADPs were below 62.5. In December, of course, is when Henry went on a tear, won AFC Offensive Player of the Month, and restored is dynasty value.
2019- His ADP was up to 50.83 by February, and that's the latest it's been since. The early mark for 2019 was 32.5
2020- It currently sits at 20.17, with a peak of 17.83.

So yes, for a 3 month chunk of Henry's 4 year career, if you sold low, you sold at a loss. But for the other 3.75/4 years, he's been more valuable than he was when you drafted him.

Tape grinders trying to reactively claim that they were right about Derrick Henry are wild.

[blemly]

Are you planning on evaluating Antonio Gibson as a RB?

I've reviewed more RBs than I can count this year being a shut-in and all, but I'm not going to bring them up until my articles post. Anyone should feel free to do it though. I'd love to read some thoughts on late round players.

You want an Antonio Gibson review? Because I have an Antonio Gibson review!

This kid is special. I do think he transitions to an RB at the NFL level, but I'm not concerned if he stays at WR either. Gibson is an uber-athletic playmaker that you want to get the ball to regardless.

Cons:
- Gibson saw limited touches at either the RB/WR position (33 rushes and 56 targets in 2019).
- We really only have 2019 to go off of. In this regard he is a complete black box project and will likely need to go to a team that is willing to use him correctly.
- Given those limited targets, he isn't a polished route runner. He shows some wiggle in separating from press coverage and frequently beat corners (cough cough in the ACC).
- Average hands. Has a tendency to let the ball come to him and/or "breadbasketing" balls rather than catching it with his hands. Still, I'm not overly concerned and think this can be improved upon over time.

Pros:
- 4.39' 40 time with a 6'0" 228 lb. frame. Gibson has legitimate burners and he uses them to make explosive plays. For example, of his aforementioned 56 targets, Gibson caught 38 of them. Add that to his 33 rushes and we only have 71 plays on offense where Gibson had the ball in his hands. He turned those into 12 touchdowns. Twelve. He is explosive in every sense of the word. For the 2019 season Gibson ended up with 71-1104-12 as his statline. He averaged 15.5 yards/touch. Even in the ACC this is absurd.
- Dynamism dynamism dynamism. For a fringe day 2 prospect it is important to find ways to get on the field. Gibson is probably the 2nd most dynamic player in this class behind only Lynn Bowden out of Kentucky. He returns kicks (23-645-1 last year), punts, lines up at WR, and can play RB. In short, it will be hard to keep him off the field.
- Decisive, willing runner with good-great contact balance. It isn't easy tackling a 6' 228lb runner, but for his limited touches Gibson's tape shows that he is especially hard to bring down. There is one play vs. SMU last year that shows this extremely well, where he is hit at the line of scrimmage by an SMU player coming off the edge. The guy turns Gibson around but he keeps churning his legs and is eventually able to shed him and another player coming into help. Having basically slowed to a stop, he is then able to take 3 steps and make a hard inside cut to elude a third defender and then he turns on the burners to take it another 50 or so yards for the TD.
- It isn't hard to explain away his limited production. In 2016-17, Anthony Miller was a WR for Memphis. In 2017-18, Gibson competed with Tony Pollard and Darrel Henderson for touches. And even this past year in 2019, he competed for touches with Kenneth Gainwell, who in my opinion will be the best NFL prospect between him, Pollard, and Henderson (231-1459-13 and 51-610-3 splits as a redshirt sophomore). Despite all of this pro talent around him, Memphis (finally in 2019) found ways to get him the ball.

Comps:
Floor: Cordarrelle Patterson.
I don't hate Patterson, just think he was before his time. Still, his electric big play ability has kept him in the league to this day, despite being a bust by many.

Ceiling: more dynamic Deebo Samuel.
He doesn't have quite the route running chops that Deebo has (or at least hasn't had the opportunity to show it), but he has better vision and more burst as a runner than Deebo. He will need to land on a team that is a good fit where the staff is willing to scheme plays for him, but I'm willing to stick my neck out and say this is a player that even the most laid back of fantasy players will know about in a couple years.

[OhCruelestRanter]

Are you planning on evaluating Antonio Gibson as a RB?

I've reviewed more RBs than I can count this year being a shut-in and all, but I'm not going to bring them up until my articles post. Anyone should feel free to do it though. I'd love to read some thoughts on late round players.

You want an Antonio Gibson review? Because I have an Antonio Gibson review!

This kid is special. I do think he transitions to an RB at the NFL level, but I'm not concerned if he stays at WR either. Gibson is an uber-athletic playmaker that you want to get the ball to regardless.

Cons:
- Gibson saw limited touches at either the RB/WR position (33 rushes and 56 targets in 2019).
- We really only have 2019 to go off of. In this regard he is a complete black box project and will likely need to go to a team that is willing to use him correctly.
- Given those limited targets, he isn't a polished route runner. He shows some wiggle in separating from press coverage and frequently beat corners (cough cough in the ACC).

Awesome, awesome write up. Thanks man! Where can I read more of your stuff?

I suspect he ends up a RB, but is listing himself as a WR for compensation reasons.
- Average hands. Has a tendency to let the ball come to him and/or "breadbasketing" balls rather than catching it with his hands. Still, I'm not overly concerned and think this can be improved upon over time.

Pros:
- 4.39' 40 time with a 6'0" 228 lb. frame. Gibson has legitimate burners and he uses them to make explosive plays. For example, of his aforementioned 56 targets, Gibson caught 38 of them. Add that to his 33 rushes and we only have 71 plays on offense where Gibson had the ball in his hands. He turned those into 12 touchdowns. Twelve. He is explosive in every sense of the word. For the 2019 season Gibson ended up with 71-1104-12 as his statline. He averaged 15.5 yards/touch. Even in the ACC this is absurd.
- Dynamism dynamism dynamism. For a fringe day 2 prospect it is important to find ways to get on the field. Gibson is probably the 2nd most dynamic player in this class behind only Lynn Bowden out of Kentucky. He returns kicks (23-645-1 last year), punts, lines up at WR, and can play RB. In short, it will be hard to keep him off the field.
- Decisive, willing runner with good-great contact balance. It isn't easy tackling a 6' 228lb runner, but for his limited touches Gibson's tape shows that he is especially hard to bring down. There is one play vs. SMU last year that shows this extremely well, where he is hit at the line of scrimmage by an SMU player coming off the edge. The guy turns Gibson around but he keeps churning his legs and is eventually able to shed him and another player coming into help. Having basically slowed to a stop, he is then able to take 3 steps and make a hard inside cut to elude a third defender and then he turns on the burners to take it another 50 or so yards for the TD.
- It isn't hard to explain away his limited production. In 2016-17, Anthony Miller was a WR for Memphis. In 2017-18, Gibson competed with Tony Pollard and Darrel Henderson for touches. And even this past year in 2019, he competed for touches with Kenneth Gainwell, who in my opinion will be the best NFL prospect between him, Pollard, and Henderson (231-1459-13 and 51-610-3 splits as a redshirt sophomore). Despite all of this pro talent around him, Memphis (finally in 2019) found ways to get him the ball.

Comps:
Floor: Cordarrelle Patterson.
I don't hate Patterson, just think he was before his time. Still, his electric big play ability has kept him in the league to this day, despite being a bust by many.

Ceiling: more dynamic Deebo Samuel.
He doesn't have quite the route running chops that Deebo has (or at least hasn't had the opportunity to show it), but he has better vision and more burst as a runner than Deebo. He will need to land on a team that is a good fit where the staff is willing to scheme plays for him, but I'm willing to stick my neck out and say this is a player that even the most laid back of fantasy players will know about in a couple years.

[blemly]

Awesome, awesome write up. Thanks man! Where can I read more of your stuff?

Thanks! Not trying to hijack the thread, but I just really like Gibson as a prospect. This is my first in-depth review of any player.

[OhCruelestRanter]

Awesome, awesome write up. Thanks man! Where can I read more of your stuff?

Thanks! Not trying to hijack the thread, but I just really like Gibson as a prospect. This is my first in-depth review of any player.

Don’t make it your last.

[MEuRaH]

"took him to his 4th year to develop" is unequivocally false. Derrick Henry was the PPR RB13 in his 3rd year. Whatever you think about Henry, saying it took until his 4th year to develop is just wrong.

We might agree to disagree on this one. 50% of his fantasy production came in weeks 13 and 14. Those weeks are playoff weeks and chances are that if you made the playoff with Henry on you did not feel comfortable starting him. He was 29th in rushing in weeks 1-12. I don't think 2 weeks of good production = "developed", but if you do I can't say you're wrong.