RB Analysis Part Two (RB5-RB8) Plus Top 8 Rank So Far
Posted: Wed Apr 08, 2020 7:25 am
The first article (RB ADPs 1-4) posted last week. The 2nd article on RBs is about to post and will have more info than what I'm posting below. Once it does I will edit this sentence. Here is a summary, but I even put a TL;DR at the bottom anyway:
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (aka CEH), LSU, ADP RB5
--- Lacks top end speed but his sudden burst and quickness makes up for it.
--- Had a 1.60 10-yard split which is similar to other top backs in the class (Swift = 1.59 for example).
--- At 5'7" he's shorter than desired, but unlike shorter backs he has heft (207 pounds).
--- Some rookie named Joe Burrow called him the best athlete on an LSU team stacked with NFL talent.
--- His pass-catching and route running might be the best of any RB in the draft.
I have CEH RB3 on my ranks because of his very high floor, but he also has a lower ceiling than the other top backs in this class (NOTE: Not a "low" ceiling, just lower by comparison). He does not have the potential of Swift/Dobbins/Taylor because of his lack of size and speed. Landing spot could push him down to RB4 or lower for me. If by some miracle he gets a great landing spot and Swift/Dobbins/Taylor do not, he could vault up to 1.01. Improbable (99% this won't happen) but not impossible.
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Zack Moss, Utah, ADP RB6
--- Under-performed at the combine, failing to reach nearly every metric standard for RBs.
--- Slow 4.65 40.
--- Most of his highlights are goal line or red zone carries.
--- Runs primarily out of power.
TD dependent flex at the pro level, possibly more for a short period if drafted to a team with little else to work with. I am not looking to acquire him unless it's for a very late pick. How is he 6th in ADP?
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AJ Dillon, Boston College, ADP RB7
--- HUGE back, 6'0" 247 pounds, ran a 4.53 40. Wow.
--- Highest vertical and broad jumps at the combine... AT 247 POUNDS!
--- Excellent 3-cone to show agility.... how does he do it?
--- His tape mostly matches his combine, somewhat of a red flag because they should be perfect matches. This gives me pause.
--- Runs power and zone, so transition to the NFL should be cake.
I really like this RB. I think I'd easily feel comfortable drafting him in the late 1st, even though he's being drafted much later than that. AJD would be a great early-to-mid 2nd round selection. This is perhaps the most-underrated back I've reviewed so far. There's almost no mention of him anywhere as a guy to target, but he's definitely on my list the same way Singletary was last year.
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Ke’Shawn Vaughn, Vanderbilt, ADP RB8
--- 2 years older than nearly every rookie RB in the draft.
--- Lost his starting job with Illinois and transferred.
--- Ran power, coached to success (not a good thing).
--- Leans in his cuts.
--- Not the smartest kid, possibly the worst interviews I've ever seen.
I wish him the best but he's a hard pass for me. I will not be selecting him in any rookie draft as I have him rated very low.
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TL;DR
My current ranks of the 8 I've evaluated & that I've shared: Landing spot could change this order.
1) Dobbins (most pro ready, high floor/ceiling)
2) Swift (98% pro ready, high floor/ceiling)
3) CEH (high floor, PPR back, size/speed concerns)
4) Jonathan Taylor* (highest ceiling but lowest floor. High risk/reward.)
5) AJ Dillon (best value in the draft. #1 target for the 2nd round or late 1st if needed)
---------- I would draft the above, I am not drafting the below ----------
6) Cam Akers (QB-turned-RB, missing lots of skills, seems to rely on talent too much)
7) Zack Moss (So slow. TD dependent RBBC guy.)
8) Ke'Shawn Vaughn (Worst value in the draft. Wasted pick, stay away.)
*If you're chasing 'best possible player' and you don't mind risk, this should be your pick at 1.01. I have him in my "I would draft" category but I also think he has the highest bust potential of that group. Unless he falls tremendously in the NFL or fantasy draft, I will not be selecting him. I am actively targeting the other 4.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (aka CEH), LSU, ADP RB5
--- Lacks top end speed but his sudden burst and quickness makes up for it.
--- Had a 1.60 10-yard split which is similar to other top backs in the class (Swift = 1.59 for example).
--- At 5'7" he's shorter than desired, but unlike shorter backs he has heft (207 pounds).
--- Some rookie named Joe Burrow called him the best athlete on an LSU team stacked with NFL talent.
--- His pass-catching and route running might be the best of any RB in the draft.
I have CEH RB3 on my ranks because of his very high floor, but he also has a lower ceiling than the other top backs in this class (NOTE: Not a "low" ceiling, just lower by comparison). He does not have the potential of Swift/Dobbins/Taylor because of his lack of size and speed. Landing spot could push him down to RB4 or lower for me. If by some miracle he gets a great landing spot and Swift/Dobbins/Taylor do not, he could vault up to 1.01. Improbable (99% this won't happen) but not impossible.
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Zack Moss, Utah, ADP RB6
--- Under-performed at the combine, failing to reach nearly every metric standard for RBs.
--- Slow 4.65 40.
--- Most of his highlights are goal line or red zone carries.
--- Runs primarily out of power.
TD dependent flex at the pro level, possibly more for a short period if drafted to a team with little else to work with. I am not looking to acquire him unless it's for a very late pick. How is he 6th in ADP?
=====================================================================
AJ Dillon, Boston College, ADP RB7
--- HUGE back, 6'0" 247 pounds, ran a 4.53 40. Wow.
--- Highest vertical and broad jumps at the combine... AT 247 POUNDS!
--- Excellent 3-cone to show agility.... how does he do it?
--- His tape mostly matches his combine, somewhat of a red flag because they should be perfect matches. This gives me pause.
--- Runs power and zone, so transition to the NFL should be cake.
I really like this RB. I think I'd easily feel comfortable drafting him in the late 1st, even though he's being drafted much later than that. AJD would be a great early-to-mid 2nd round selection. This is perhaps the most-underrated back I've reviewed so far. There's almost no mention of him anywhere as a guy to target, but he's definitely on my list the same way Singletary was last year.
=======================================================================
Ke’Shawn Vaughn, Vanderbilt, ADP RB8
--- 2 years older than nearly every rookie RB in the draft.
--- Lost his starting job with Illinois and transferred.
--- Ran power, coached to success (not a good thing).
--- Leans in his cuts.
--- Not the smartest kid, possibly the worst interviews I've ever seen.
I wish him the best but he's a hard pass for me. I will not be selecting him in any rookie draft as I have him rated very low.
========================================================================
TL;DR
My current ranks of the 8 I've evaluated & that I've shared: Landing spot could change this order.
1) Dobbins (most pro ready, high floor/ceiling)
2) Swift (98% pro ready, high floor/ceiling)
3) CEH (high floor, PPR back, size/speed concerns)
4) Jonathan Taylor* (highest ceiling but lowest floor. High risk/reward.)
5) AJ Dillon (best value in the draft. #1 target for the 2nd round or late 1st if needed)
---------- I would draft the above, I am not drafting the below ----------
6) Cam Akers (QB-turned-RB, missing lots of skills, seems to rely on talent too much)
7) Zack Moss (So slow. TD dependent RBBC guy.)
8) Ke'Shawn Vaughn (Worst value in the draft. Wasted pick, stay away.)
*If you're chasing 'best possible player' and you don't mind risk, this should be your pick at 1.01. I have him in my "I would draft" category but I also think he has the highest bust potential of that group. Unless he falls tremendously in the NFL or fantasy draft, I will not be selecting him. I am actively targeting the other 4.