RB Analysis Part Two (RB5-RB8) Plus Top 8 Rank So Far

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Re: RB Analysis Part Two (RB5-RB8) Plus Top 8 Rank So Far

Postby dlf_mikeh » Sun Apr 26, 2020 5:30 pm

Cult of Dionysus wrote:
Sun Apr 26, 2020 4:38 pm
OhCruelestRanter wrote:
Sun Apr 26, 2020 3:37 pm
I think the premise of taking any RB because they're going to produce early is prohibitively flawed in a COVID off-season with limited workouts and practices. If you like CEH more because you think he's the better player, or you think he'll produce more in KC, great. But if your take is that you want him because he'll produce more in year one, I'd think harder about how much any rookie is going to produce this year.
We are talking about running backs, son.
Yeah I was thinking the same thing. A polished RB can step into a new system and perform quicker than any other position in the NFL. CEH is pretty polished, as is Dobbins and Swift. Not worried about any of those 3 guys.
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Re: RB Analysis Part Two (RB5-RB8) Plus Top 8 Rank So Far

Postby CGW » Sun Apr 26, 2020 5:34 pm

Cult of Dionysus wrote:
Sun Apr 26, 2020 4:38 pm
OhCruelestRanter wrote:
Sun Apr 26, 2020 3:37 pm
I think the premise of taking any RB because they're going to produce early is prohibitively flawed in a COVID off-season with limited workouts and practices. If you like CEH more because you think he's the better player, or you think he'll produce more in KC, great. But if your take is that you want him because he'll produce more in year one, I'd think harder about how much any rookie is going to produce this year.
We are talking about running backs, son.
Agreed. While I'd prefer my RBs to get an off season tuneup, I'm not as concerned as I am for many other positions. Especially the top handful of RBs.
12 Team | SF | PPR | 6pt pass TD
QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, FL, SF

QB | Cousins, Darnold, Trubisky, Flacco, Walker
RB | CEH, Taylor, Gaskin, Singletary, Wilkins, Ahmed
WR | Adams, Evans, Golladay, Cooper, D. Johnson, Miller, G. Davis, Mooney, Pascal
TE | Andrews, Alie-Cox, Rodgers

10 Team | SF | PPR
QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, FL, SF

QB | Murray, Minshew, Tagovailoa
RB | Montgomery, Singletary, Murray, R. Jones, Dobbins, Swift, Vaughn
WR | Godwin, AJ Brown, Lamb, M. Brown, D. Johnson, Slayton, Aiyuk, Reynolds, Fulgham, Peoples-Jones, Mooney
TE | Andrews, Henry, Herndon, Sample

12 Team | SF | PPR | 6pt pass TD
QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, FL, FL, SF

QB | Watson, Wilson, Darnold, Trubisky, Fromme, Smith, Flacco
RB | Guice, Hines, Penny, Henderson, Wilkins
WR | Evans, Golladay, Ridley, Kupp, D. Johnson, Pittman, Fulgham, Mooney, Ward, T. Smith, Zaccheus
TE | Ertz, Herndon, Sternberger, L. Thomas

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Re: RB Analysis Part Two (RB5-RB8) Plus Top 8 Rank So Far

Postby OhCruelestRanter » Sun Apr 26, 2020 7:46 pm

So then how much do you guys think Helaire is going to outperform Taylor by as a rookie?
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Re: RB Analysis Part Two (RB5-RB8) Plus Top 8 Rank So Far

Postby lawilt » Sun Apr 26, 2020 8:27 pm

dlf_mikeh , when will the next report be out?

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Re: RB Analysis Part Two (RB5-RB8) Plus Top 8 Rank So Far

Postby FantasyFreak » Sun Apr 26, 2020 8:32 pm

dlf_mikeh wrote:
Sun Apr 26, 2020 5:30 pm
Cult of Dionysus wrote:
Sun Apr 26, 2020 4:38 pm
OhCruelestRanter wrote:
Sun Apr 26, 2020 3:37 pm
I think the premise of taking any RB because they're going to produce early is prohibitively flawed in a COVID off-season with limited workouts and practices. If you like CEH more because you think he's the better player, or you think he'll produce more in KC, great. But if your take is that you want him because he'll produce more in year one, I'd think harder about how much any rookie is going to produce this year.
We are talking about running backs, son.
Yeah I was thinking the same thing. A polished RB can step into a new system and perform quicker than any other position in the NFL. CEH is pretty polished, as is Dobbins and Swift. Not worried about any of those 3 guys.
But you are worried about JT going to Indy? Why? You are not at all concerned about CEH's horrible pass pro, and his lack of ability to get reps to improve it for year 1? The Seahawks year 1 tried to get Penny as many reps as possible with that, knowing it was a weakness his rookie year. CEH won't get the same opportunity.

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Re: RB Analysis Part Two (RB5-RB8) Plus Top 8 Rank So Far

Postby OhCruelestRanter » Sun Apr 26, 2020 8:46 pm

FantasyFreak wrote:
Sun Apr 26, 2020 8:32 pm
dlf_mikeh wrote:
Sun Apr 26, 2020 5:30 pm
Cult of Dionysus wrote:
Sun Apr 26, 2020 4:38 pm
We are talking about running backs, son.
Yeah I was thinking the same thing. A polished RB can step into a new system and perform quicker than any other position in the NFL. CEH is pretty polished, as is Dobbins and Swift. Not worried about any of those 3 guys.
But you are worried about JT going to Indy? Why? You are not at all concerned about CEH's horrible pass pro, and his lack of ability to get reps to improve it for year 1? The Seahawks year 1 tried to get Penny as many reps as possible with that, knowing it was a weakness his rookie year. CEH won't get the same opportunity.
The pass protection was exactly my thought. It's not a long term issue for me, but for a rookie who struggled in pass protection in college, and will then have an abridged off-season program, I think concern about his immediate production is reasonable.
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Re: RB Analysis Part Two (RB5-RB8) Plus Top 8 Rank So Far

Postby Hottoddies » Sun Apr 26, 2020 9:28 pm

Cult of Dionysus wrote:
Sun Apr 26, 2020 4:38 pm
OhCruelestRanter wrote:
Sun Apr 26, 2020 3:37 pm
I think the premise of taking any RB because they're going to produce early is prohibitively flawed in a COVID off-season with limited workouts and practices. If you like CEH more because you think he's the better player, or you think he'll produce more in KC, great. But if your take is that you want him because he'll produce more in year one, I'd think harder about how much any rookie is going to produce this year.
We are talking about running backs, son.
As much as I love CEH and the Chiefs, I would pump the brakes on any high end production right out of the gates. Their offensive scheme is fairly complex and it might take some time for CEH to get up to speed. Williams has been well versed in that system for a couple of years now so I could totally see him starting the year off as the starter with CEH being brought along slowly until he gets a handle on the job. But this is dynasty and I'm in it for the long haul. CEH will be the man before the season is over and I still hope I can land him on a few of my teams.
Last edited by Hottoddies on Sun Apr 26, 2020 9:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: RB Analysis Part Two (RB5-RB8) Plus Top 8 Rank So Far

Postby Cult of Dionysus » Sun Apr 26, 2020 9:28 pm

When you have Sammy, Tyreek, Hardman/Robinson out wide, Kelce from the TE position and a RB running a wheel route, you only need 5 blockers!

CEH wont be asked to block.

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Re: RB Analysis Part Two (RB5-RB8) Plus Top 8 Rank So Far

Postby FantasyFreak » Mon Apr 27, 2020 7:50 am

Cult of Dionysus wrote:
Sun Apr 26, 2020 9:28 pm
When you have Sammy, Tyreek, Hardman/Robinson out wide, Kelce from the TE position and a RB running a wheel route, you only need 5 blockers!

CEH wont be asked to block.
You need to block. Every RB needs to block from time to time.

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Re: RB Analysis Part Two (RB5-RB8) Plus Top 8 Rank So Far

Postby YouMightDieTryin » Mon Apr 27, 2020 8:22 am

FantasyFreak wrote:
Mon Apr 27, 2020 7:50 am
Cult of Dionysus wrote:
Sun Apr 26, 2020 9:28 pm
When you have Sammy, Tyreek, Hardman/Robinson out wide, Kelce from the TE position and a RB running a wheel route, you only need 5 blockers!

CEH wont be asked to block.
You need to block. Every RB needs to block from time to time.
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10-Team Dynasty League QB/RB/RB/WR/WR/WR/FLEX (23 man rosters + 2 IR + 2 Taxi, non-PPR scoring)
QB: Brady, Mayfield
RB: Saquon, Elliott, CEH, K.Hunt, Malcolm Brown, Justin Jackson,
WR: DJ Moore, OBJ, Kupp, B.Cooks, D.Parker, Jeudy, Pittman, Shenault, B. Edwards, ESB, Scotty Miller, Sims Jr
TE: H.Henry, C.Herndon, I Smith Jr, Shultz
Taxi: T.Johnson, Herbert
2021: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th
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Re: RB Analysis Part Two (RB5-RB8) Plus Top 8 Rank So Far

Postby dlf_mikeh » Mon Apr 27, 2020 10:09 am

Hottoddies wrote:
Sun Apr 26, 2020 9:28 pm
As much as I love CEH and the Chiefs, I would pump the brakes on any high end production right out of the gates. Their offensive scheme is fairly complex and it might take some time for CEH to get up to speed.
I believe Kareem Hunt was third on the depth chart behind Spencer Ware and _____________ and didn't work with the 1s up until he played the Patriots week 1 in 2017, where he erupted with a huge game. Not saying it'll happen with CEH, just that it's happened before.

And I'm not terribly worried about pass protection since he's so dangerous out of the backfield as a pass catcher. If he wasn't such a threat through the air then I'd be more negative towards CEH.

JT needs to work on so much more than CEH until he's ready. I've explained it all before, just check my JT thread. Indy is a great spot for him.
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Re: RB Analysis Part Two (RB5-RB8) Plus Top 8 Rank So Far

Postby OhCruelestRanter » Mon Apr 27, 2020 10:24 am

dlf_mikeh wrote:
Mon Apr 27, 2020 10:09 am
JT needs to work on so much more than CEH until he's ready. I've explained it all before, just check my JT thread. Indy is a great spot for him.
You'll have to forgive us if we're confused; it would appear your thoughts on JT were a bit scattered. Here's what you said about him before the draft:
dlf_mikeh wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 7:25 am
he's not worth your top 6 pick
dlf_mikeh wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 7:25 am
4) Jonathan Taylor* (highest ceiling but lowest floor. High risk/reward.)
dlf_mikeh wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 7:25 am
*If you're chasing 'best possible player' and you don't mind risk, this should be your pick at 1.01. I have him in my "I would draft" category but I also think he has the highest bust potential of that group.
And here's what you said after the NFL Draft:
dlf_mikeh wrote:
Sat Apr 25, 2020 9:51 am
CEH landed amazingly well. Dobbins landed well, JT in a good spot, Swift not so much.

All 4 guys deserve consideration at 1.01 tbh. CEH/Dobbins are my top guys. JT/Swift are just a tad behind them.

I'd still draft Swift over JT simply because I don't want to take the gamble on JT. He has more to learn than anyone else and I'd rather have something closer to a finished product like Swift. However, I love JTs coaching staff... that's a huge plus.

CEH
Dobbins
Swift
JT

I guess that's my ranks, but that's just based on immediate production.
dlf_mikeh wrote:
Sat Apr 25, 2020 9:51 am
If I was rebuilding and I owned the 1.01 pick:
Dobbins
Swift
JT
CEH
dlf_mikeh wrote:
Sat Apr 25, 2020 9:51 am
And then if I was ranking on possible ceiling:

JT
Dobbins
CEH
Swift
So pre-draft you ranked him as 1.01, RB4, and outside your top 6 rookies, and then post draft you've had him 1.04, 1.03, and 1.01.

I'm not sure who this is supposed to be useful for, but again, thank you for doing it.
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Re: RB Analysis Part Two (RB5-RB8) Plus Top 8 Rank So Far

Postby Zacsby » Mon Apr 27, 2020 10:31 am

Don't care what anyone says about his pass pro, dude was drafted to run routes and be explosive. I'd be surprised if there was a RB in this class that runs more routes or averaged more yards per route run than CEH next year. I would be surprised if he doesn't get at least 50-60 percent of the backfield touches next year. I'd be surprised if that doesn't translate to considerable fantasy success.

According to PFF, Kareem Hunt was the second worst pass blocker among all RBs in his rookie year (just behind Christian McCaffrey, who had the single worst pass blocking efficiency rating among all rookies in the decade leading up to his rookie season, interestingly enough). Didn't prevent either of them from scoring very respectable amounts of fantasy points, I'd be surprised if it prevents CEH.
12 Tm SF PPR - QB, RB (2), WR (2), TE, FLX (2) SF
QB - Lamar, Brees, Daniel Jones, Taysom, Stidham
RB - CMC, AJ, Drake, Robinson, Cohen, AP
WR - Golladay, Boyd, Landry, Sanders, Mecole
TE - Kelce, Hurst, Rudolph, Oliver

12 Tm SF, Tiered PPR (.5RB, 1WR, 1.5TE) Start 9
QB - Watson, Daniel Jones, Tannehill, Stidham
RB - Kamara, Carson, Michel, Scott, Penny
WR - Nuk, Evans, Ridley, M-Will, P-Will, Washington
TE - Kittle, Rudolph, Reed

24 Tm 2 Copy PPR - QB, RB (2), WR (2), TE, FLX (3)
QB - Stafford, Jimmy G, Cousins
RB - CEH, Taylor, Hunt, Singletary, Moss, Breida, Gibson, Darwin
WR - Godwin, Golladay, AJB, M-Will, Ruggs, Higgins, Duvernay
TE - Andrews, Hurst, Herndon
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Re: RB Analysis Part Two (RB5-RB8) Plus Top 8 Rank So Far

Postby Heartwork » Mon Apr 27, 2020 10:42 am

Mikeh are you still high on Dillon? I know he wont amass to much this yeah but do you think he is being groomed to take over next year?

12 Team PPR| 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1 TE, 2 Flex, 1 KR, 1 DEF | 25 Roster | 2 Taxi

QB: Watson, Stafford
RB: Chubb, Sanders, Hill, Dillon, Foreman, Williams
WR: Hopkins, Mims, Jeudy, Higgins, Golladay, Fulgham, Edwards, Gage, Boykin, Callaway, Sims
TE: Hockenson, Goedert, Knox
DST: Ravens, Giants, Cardinals
PS: G. Davis, Cephus
IR: Funchess, Barkley
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12 Team PPR| Superflex & TE Premium Bestball | 30 Roster | No Taxi

QB: Carr, Herbert, Love, Daniel, Finley
RB: Chubb, Swift, Dobbins, Michel, R.Freeman, Dallas, Ahmed, Ballage, Smith, Williams
WR: Godwin, Lamb, Pittman, Boykin, Cephus, Claypool, Mims, Snead
TE: Goedert, Gesicki, Everett, Asiasi, Hopkins, Bryant, Reed
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Re: RB Analysis Part Two (RB5-RB8) Plus Top 8 Rank So Far

Postby Bronco Billy » Mon Apr 27, 2020 11:25 am

dlf_mikeh wrote:
Mon Apr 27, 2020 10:09 am
Hottoddies wrote:
Sun Apr 26, 2020 9:28 pm
As much as I love CEH and the Chiefs, I would pump the brakes on any high end production right out of the gates. Their offensive scheme is fairly complex and it might take some time for CEH to get up to speed.
I believe Kareem Hunt was third on the depth chart behind Spencer Ware and _____________ and didn't work with the 1s up until he played the Patriots week 1 in 2017, where he erupted with a huge game. Not saying it'll happen with CEH, just that it's happened before.

And I'm not terribly worried about pass protection since he's so dangerous out of the backfield as a pass catcher. If he wasn't such a threat through the air then I'd be more negative towards CEH.

JT needs to work on so much more than CEH until he's ready. I've explained it all before, just check my JT thread. Indy is a great spot for him.
Spencer Ware tore his ACL in a mid/late August preseason game when Hunt was a rookie. Charcandrick West was the other vet on the roster competing with Hunt. Hunt was steadily gaining ground on Ware before the injury though, IIRC. Hunt had made a couple of eye-popping PP blocks in PS games prior to that also.


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