Njoku

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Prison_Mike
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Is Njoku a sell?

Postby Prison_Mike » Thu Mar 21, 2019 7:59 am

I've heard this talked about but not on this forum
Should we be selling Njoku shares after the OBJ/Hunt/Harris acquisitions?

I think he's a very talented player but there are so many mouths to feed, does this help or hurt him?

I'm not even sure what to sell him for tbh - lesser TE & a back end 1st? package to upgrade TE? (Engram, Ertz, Kittle, OJ(?)
Team 1:
12-team | Half PPR | 1QB - (Year 2)
Start: 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, 3FLX
QB: Dak, Stafford, Fitzpatrick
RB: Saquon, Sanders, Drake, Mostert, Coleman, Pollard, Penny, Wilson
WR: Hopkins, OBJ, Kirk, MJJ, Crowder, Tate, Tyrell, Conley, Mooney, Davis
TE: Engram, Jonnu, Ian Thomas, Olsen, K.Smith

Team 2:
12-Team | PPR | 1QB - (Year 2)
Start: 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 2FLX, DST, K
QB: Dak, Cam, Big Ben, Dalton
RB: Zeke, Sanders, Bell, Dobbins, Conner, Robinson, Justice, T.Williams
WR: Hopkins, Keenan, Boyd, DJM, Lamb, Miller, D-Jax, AB, Stills
TE: Engram, Hock, Ian Thomas, Herndon, Oliver
(Taxi): Mooney, Reed

Team 3:
10-team | PPR | 1QB — (3-Keeper)
Start: 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, 2FLEX, 1DST, 1K
QB: Cam, 12-inch Minsh
RB: CMC, Sanders, Robinson
WR: Adams, DJM, Woods, Parker, Gallup, Edelman, AJG
TE: Andrews, Alie-Cox
2021 picks: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th (my own)

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Bot101
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Re: Is Njoku a sell?

Postby Bot101 » Thu Mar 21, 2019 8:03 am

Njoku is a high ceiling, low floor player. Right now at this moment, hes a better athlete than TE. Dorsey even publicly called out his run blocking at the combine. Maybe these additions help take some pressure off of him? Dunno. Id rather have his draft counterparts than him pre OBJ and especially now. But if someone is panicking then go get him if you have a better starter.

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Re: Is Njoku a sell?

Postby Cameron Giles » Thu Mar 21, 2019 8:15 am

On the contrary, he's a buy. If you were hoping for him to get 1000 yards, you'll be disappointed. But he could absolutely get 700 or so yards and a respectable amount of touchdowns.

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Re: Is Njoku a sell?

Postby collbey » Thu Mar 21, 2019 8:25 am

I still like him. Will be TD dependent which for most positions I don't like but for TE is okay. Agree that he won't be a yards guy.

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Re: Is Njoku a sell?

Postby briank » Thu Mar 21, 2019 8:29 am

Bot101 wrote:
Thu Mar 21, 2019 8:03 am
Njoku is a high ceiling, low floor player. Right now at this moment, hes a better athlete than TE. Dorsey even publicly called out his run blocking at the combine. Maybe these additions help take some pressure off of him? Dunno. Id rather have his draft counterparts than him pre OBJ and especially now. But if someone is panicking then go get him if you have a better starter.
I vehemently disagree that he's a low floor player. He just finished as a top 10 TE in his sophomore season. He's tied to a great young QB. He's about to get less coverage. There are a lot of mouths to feed, but the offense is going to be a lot better and he's an ascending talent. He could get less of the target share this year, and still put up more points. I think he'll be their main target in the redzone.
12 tm tiered PPR Superflex start 9
QB Allen/Mayfield/Winston
RB Mixon/A. Jones/Ja. Williams/Bernard/AP
WR Hopkins/Thomas/DJ Moore/Robinson/Jeffery/Preston Williams
TE Ertz/Cook/Hurst

12 tm tiered PPR Superflex start 10
QB Mahomes/Watson/Roethlisberger/Fitzpatrick
RB Cook/Mixon/J. Robinson/Ja. Williams/Hines
WR Evans/Woods/Cooks/Fuller/Miller/Diontae Johnson
TE Kittle/L. Thomas

12 tm tiered PPR Superflex start 10
QB Mahomes/Murray/Burrow
RB Jacobs/Dobbins/Swift/Dillon
WR Diggs/DJ Moore/AJ Brown/Marquis Brown/Cooks/Ruggs/Davis
TE Engram/Njoku/Irv Smith/Hurst

12 tm tiered PPR Superflex start 11
QB Jackson/Brees/Rivers
RB Da. Johnson/Gurley
WR Adams/Hopkins/Julio/Thielen/Hilton
TE Kelce/Ertz/Irv

12 tm PPR 1.5 for TE Superflex start 2 TE start 12
QB Goff/Herbert/Tua
RB
WR Juju/Sutton/Juedy/Jefferson/Samuel
TE Kittle/Fant/Njoku
6 2021 1sts

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Re: Is Njoku a sell?

Postby ninotoreS » Thu Mar 21, 2019 8:30 am

I think a roster that has another legitimately good and young-ish option at TE could justifiably look to sell Njoku right now provided it's truly a sell-high. This rookie class seems rich with TEs, so you could cash out Njoku and pick up another young high-upside TE prospect for your future.

Otherwise, Njoku's great age for an athletic TE entering his third season with command of his depth-chart and an ascending QB is really appealing. He'll play this entire next season at just age 23! It's not a given that he'll continue getting better as a pro, but if he does, he's going to be a good player for a long time. He checks lots of boxes that I normally only see on ascending pro TEs that are 25 or 26. The obvious near-term pitfall is that there won't be ample targets available with Beckham and Landry doing their thing, but at such a young age, Njoku's ultimate potential still has time to incubate for now with a good chance of still being a decent low-end TE1 this year even if his targets don't increase.
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Re: Is Njoku a sell?

Postby JFever » Thu Mar 21, 2019 9:06 am

Cameron Giles wrote:
Thu Mar 21, 2019 8:15 am
On the contrary, he's a buy. If you were hoping for him to get 1000 yards, you'll be disappointed. But he could absolutely get 700 or so yards and a respectable amount of touchdowns.
Highly unlikely imo. I think the TE position is much more about situation than physical talent. I do believe that Njoku is a physical specimen, but, I'd bet my bottom dollar that he will be a fantasy nightmare. Why? #1. Well, I think that Cleveland has a decent defense, so, in that respect, game script will most of the time limit the overall passing attempts and at worst, it will limit garbage time points for passing and receiving. #2, The progressions will very likely be something like 1.OBJ 2. OBJ, 3. Landry, 4. Chubb/Hunt, 5 Njoku. So, simply put, there is no way I see Njoku getting enough consistent targets week in and week out. He is no longer a candidate to be a top 5 ish scoring TE in my opinion. He will be TD dependent is my thinking.

Sure, I could be wrong and he could receive more targets than the other receiving weapons, but, IF that happens, sit back, grab your popcorn because OBJ will be putting on a show and it isn't going to be a love story. The Drama will be over the top if things dont go smooth there. It is going to be fun to watch.
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Re: Is Njoku a sell?

Postby Huh » Thu Mar 21, 2019 10:04 am

Njoku is the seam splitter on this team. He is a young physical specimen of the highest magnitude and has immense upside. Baker pushes it downfield regularly and with obj pulling coverage, njoku should be running free amongst linebackers and safeties. In this te wasteland, I’m holding or buying. Today is not the day to sell.

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Re: Is Njoku a sell?

Postby JFever » Thu Mar 21, 2019 10:20 am

Just how prolific do you expect this offense to be? Do you envision Cleveland to be a top 3-5 offense in the NFL? Does their fairly stout defense have any impact on game script or passing attempts? I think all of these are connected and interdependent. Bottom line, because Njoku is 3rd to 4th on the depth chart as far as reads on a passing play - I highly doubt the volume / targets will be there for him to be a dependable asset in ppr leagues. He could be a red zone threat however and that is yet to be determined. His value and projected production was / is negatively impacted by the presence OBJ in my opinion.
Truth is found through Evidence.

Science is the poetry of reality.

* Reality (as defined by Webster's dictionary) - A word for things as they actually exist, as opposed to an idealistic or notional ideal of them.

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Re: Is Njoku a sell?

Postby Bot101 » Thu Mar 21, 2019 10:39 am

briank wrote:
Thu Mar 21, 2019 8:29 am
Bot101 wrote:
Thu Mar 21, 2019 8:03 am
Njoku is a high ceiling, low floor player. Right now at this moment, hes a better athlete than TE. Dorsey even publicly called out his run blocking at the combine. Maybe these additions help take some pressure off of him? Dunno. Id rather have his draft counterparts than him pre OBJ and especially now. But if someone is panicking then go get him if you have a better starter.
I vehemently disagree that he's a low floor player. He just finished as a top 10 TE in his sophomore season. He's tied to a great young QB. He's about to get less coverage. There are a lot of mouths to feed, but the offense is going to be a lot better and he's an ascending talent. He could get less of the target share this year, and still put up more points. I think he'll be their main target in the redzone.
Well I think you are vehemently wrong. Pre OBJ trade, yeah maybe your argument stands. But OBJ will be absorbing a lot of targets, Landry is a target vacuum, Callaway is a deep threat/role player, and the RBs will be involved. Take your personal ownership bias out of the equation. If I can get him cheap, Id buy all day. But he isnt cheap. At least not in my league. Saying he was a "top 10 TE" is almost meaningless given how dreadful the position was outside the big 3 last season.

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Re: Is Njoku a sell?

Postby Bot101 » Thu Mar 21, 2019 10:40 am

JFever wrote:
Thu Mar 21, 2019 10:20 am
Just how prolific do you expect this offense to be? Do you envision Cleveland to be a top 3-5 offense in the NFL? Does their fairly stout defense have any impact on game script or passing attempts? I think all of these are connected and interdependent. Bottom line, because Njoku is 3rd to 4th on the depth chart as far as reads on a passing play - I highly doubt the volume / targets will be there for him to be a dependable asset in ppr leagues. He could be a red zone threat however and that is yet to be determined. His value and projected production was / is negatively impacted by the presence OBJ in my opinion.
This. OBJ plays in the same area and is better than Njoku.

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Re: Is Njoku a sell?

Postby joeya2001 » Thu Mar 21, 2019 11:07 am

Bot101 wrote:
Thu Mar 21, 2019 10:39 am
briank wrote:
Thu Mar 21, 2019 8:29 am
Bot101 wrote:
Thu Mar 21, 2019 8:03 am
Njoku is a high ceiling, low floor player. Right now at this moment, hes a better athlete than TE. Dorsey even publicly called out his run blocking at the combine. Maybe these additions help take some pressure off of him? Dunno. Id rather have his draft counterparts than him pre OBJ and especially now. But if someone is panicking then go get him if you have a better starter.
I vehemently disagree that he's a low floor player. He just finished as a top 10 TE in his sophomore season. He's tied to a great young QB. He's about to get less coverage. There are a lot of mouths to feed, but the offense is going to be a lot better and he's an ascending talent. He could get less of the target share this year, and still put up more points. I think he'll be their main target in the redzone.
Well I think you are vehemently wrong. Pre OBJ trade, yeah maybe your argument stands. But OBJ will be absorbing a lot of targets, Landry is a target vacuum, Callaway is a deep threat/role player, and the RBs will be involved. Take your personal ownership bias out of the equation. If I can get him cheap, Id buy all day. But he isnt cheap. At least not in my league. Saying he was a "top 10 TE" is almost meaningless given how dreadful the position was outside the big 3 last season.
I agree, the top 10 thing is meaningless, all TEs basically died lol
1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR 1TE, Super Flex, 2 Flex Spots. 10 Team Dynasty PPR

2016 Champs

QB- Russell Wilson, Lamar Jackson, Ryan Fitzmagic
RB- Chris Carson, Damian Harris, Le'Veon Bell Lenard Forunette, AJ Dillion, Miles Gaskin,
WR- Mike Evans, Allen Robinson, Amari Cooper, Robert Woods, Calvin Ridley,DJ Chark, Michael Pittman,
TE- George Kittle,Darren Waller, Jonnu Smith,

Team 2 10 Team 1 QB 2 RB 3 WR 1 TE 2 Flex 2 SF

QB Joe Burrow, Kirk Cousins, Dwayne Haskins, Ryan Fitzpatrick
RB Zeke, Alvin Kamara, Aaron Jones, DeAndre Swift, Cohen, AJ Dillon
WR Deebo Samuel, Keenan Allen, Jarvis Landry, D.J. Chark Tee Higgins, Marvin Jones, Paris Campbell, Golden Tate,
TE Tyler Higbee, Dallas Goedert, Irv Smith, OJ Howard, Logan Thomas

“Not good enough to count on as a starter, but too good to drop, so they clog my bench.” dlf_mikeh

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Re: Is Njoku a sell?

Postby Paul717 » Thu Mar 21, 2019 11:28 am

The Demetrius Harris signing is interesting, albeit low key. He's a decent #2 TE for the Browns. Anyone think Njoku's snap share of ~80% could decline? Even slightly?

Just adding that to the discussion. I can see opinions vary wildly on Njoku himself and don't feel strongly enough to make a case myself.
"Marathon Square" - 16 team full PPR league with 24 player roster. Keep 16 per year indefinitely, draft 8. Start 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 Team DST
QB: Deshaun Watson
RB: Aaron Jones, J.K. Dobbins, Jalen Richard, J.J. Taylor, Eno Benjamin, Trayveon Williams
WR: Calvin Ridley, A.J. Brown, Jamison Crowder, Tee Higgins, Emmanuel Sanders, Kendrick Bourne, Tyler Johnson, James Washington, Quintez Cephus, Marcus Johnson, Antonio Brown :(
TE: T.J. Hockenson, Cole Kmet
K: Rodrigo Blankenship
Team DST: Lions, Jets

Picks:
2021: 1, 2, 3, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8

Disclaimer: My one and only Championship in this league was way back in 2011. Therefore, take my replies with the appropriate grain of salt. :lol:

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Re: Is Njoku a sell?

Postby briank » Thu Mar 21, 2019 11:58 am

Bot101 wrote:
Thu Mar 21, 2019 10:39 am
briank wrote:
Thu Mar 21, 2019 8:29 am
Bot101 wrote:
Thu Mar 21, 2019 8:03 am
Njoku is a high ceiling, low floor player. Right now at this moment, hes a better athlete than TE. Dorsey even publicly called out his run blocking at the combine. Maybe these additions help take some pressure off of him? Dunno. Id rather have his draft counterparts than him pre OBJ and especially now. But if someone is panicking then go get him if you have a better starter.
I vehemently disagree that he's a low floor player. He just finished as a top 10 TE in his sophomore season. He's tied to a great young QB. He's about to get less coverage. There are a lot of mouths to feed, but the offense is going to be a lot better and he's an ascending talent. He could get less of the target share this year, and still put up more points. I think he'll be their main target in the redzone.
Well I think you are vehemently wrong. Pre OBJ trade, yeah maybe your argument stands. But OBJ will be absorbing a lot of targets, Landry is a target vacuum, Callaway is a deep threat/role player, and the RBs will be involved. Take your personal ownership bias out of the equation. If I can get him cheap, Id buy all day. But he isnt cheap. At least not in my league. Saying he was a "top 10 TE" is almost meaningless given how dreadful the position was outside the big 3 last season.
He would have been a top 10 TE the year before with those numbers as well. He was also injured for a good portion of the year. Their offense is going to pass more. They are going to have Baker for the entire season. They are going to be a much better offense. I will be shocked if he doesn't improve on last year. He's not going to be George Kittle without injuries to some of those other guys, but he's not going to disappear. He's too talented.
12 tm tiered PPR Superflex start 9
QB Allen/Mayfield/Winston
RB Mixon/A. Jones/Ja. Williams/Bernard/AP
WR Hopkins/Thomas/DJ Moore/Robinson/Jeffery/Preston Williams
TE Ertz/Cook/Hurst

12 tm tiered PPR Superflex start 10
QB Mahomes/Watson/Roethlisberger/Fitzpatrick
RB Cook/Mixon/J. Robinson/Ja. Williams/Hines
WR Evans/Woods/Cooks/Fuller/Miller/Diontae Johnson
TE Kittle/L. Thomas

12 tm tiered PPR Superflex start 10
QB Mahomes/Murray/Burrow
RB Jacobs/Dobbins/Swift/Dillon
WR Diggs/DJ Moore/AJ Brown/Marquis Brown/Cooks/Ruggs/Davis
TE Engram/Njoku/Irv Smith/Hurst

12 tm tiered PPR Superflex start 11
QB Jackson/Brees/Rivers
RB Da. Johnson/Gurley
WR Adams/Hopkins/Julio/Thielen/Hilton
TE Kelce/Ertz/Irv

12 tm PPR 1.5 for TE Superflex start 2 TE start 12
QB Goff/Herbert/Tua
RB
WR Juju/Sutton/Juedy/Jefferson/Samuel
TE Kittle/Fant/Njoku
6 2021 1sts

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Re: Is Njoku a sell?

Postby JFever » Thu Mar 21, 2019 1:32 pm

It feels strange to say it, but, Talent really doesn't matter as much as many may think when it comes to TE production. I know, I know.... But... hear me out. It ultimately comes down to many different variables for TE production. This is why it is so tough to draft, predict, and incorporate great TE's in an offense. IMO, this is why TE fantasy production is so rare. Maybe I'm right, maybe not... but - There are things that contribute and take away from this ; Consider - 1. Snap count 2. blocking scheme 3. Game script / Defense 4. Play calling & target share 5.team mate skill set & team mate level of play 6. Health 7. route running 8. Hands.

To add to it, TE's can typically be productive a few years longer into their careers. So, a break out at a young age is unlikely & unpredictable as it just isn't directly corrilated to NCAA production or skill set alone.


All that said, I find it EXTREMELY unlikely that Baker Mayfield will captain a top 3 NFL passing offense that would be necessary to support OBJ, Landry, Chubb/Hunt, Higgins and Njoku. It could happen, he (Mayfield)did look very promising in his rookie campaign. But, if their defense picks up where they left off, why in the world would you be super pass happy, SO pass happy that you will support 2 WR1
s, one / maybe 2 RB 1's, and a TE1. ? Somethings just don't add up and - this is one of them. Njoku, at this point in time, just feels like he will be the odd man out. I own him no where. Never have. I have no horse in this race.
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Science is the poetry of reality.

* Reality (as defined by Webster's dictionary) - A word for things as they actually exist, as opposed to an idealistic or notional ideal of them.


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