Stop calling Sammy Watkins a stud

[Concept Coop]

Watkins ranked 15th in DYAR (Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement), out of 83 WR's with at least 50 targets. His DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average.) was higher than Kupp and Woods. If the volume was there, Watkins likely would have had a better season.

Both of those stats are slanted towards deep threats in efficient offenses. They loved Mike Wallace in Pitt and currently love Ted Ginn Jr in NO.

[Cameron Giles]

Why are the numbers down, then? Was he schemed as a decoy? Or did Goff ignore the scheme, and his coaches, and simply ignore Sammy when his number was called? And if it was the scheme, why did a team who just traded a 2nd round pick for him decide to make him the 4th read? Why did Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, and Todd Gurley all get more targets and receptions?

Yes, Sammy did great in his Mike Wallace role. But we're not treating him like Mike Wallace.

Kupp, Woods and Gurley all run routes closer to the line of scrimmage against worse coverage. It's that simple. That's not to take anything away from any of them, because they're all solid receivers, but they don't play the role that Watkins does in that offense.

The Rams have arguably the best offense in football and have a chance to get to the Super Bowl. So, nobody in Los Angeles is complaining about the way Watkins is being used. We complain about it because we want fantasy production. They're winning, so why change it? Watkins is a decoy because his skills create better looks for the receivers around him. Neither Kupp or Woods could do what Watkins is doing in the same role as the X receiver. They're not as fast off the line, nor are they as good at every level of the field against top coverage. Being a decoy doesn't necessarily mean he's running fly routes.

[Cameron Giles]

Both of those stats are slanted towards deep threats in efficient offenses. They loved Mike Wallace in Pitt and currently love Ted Ginn Jr in NO.

It's not slanted towards big play WR's unless you are super-efficient at it.

[Concept Coop]

He's not Mike Wallace though. Wallace is a one-trick pony, who can't win on each level of the field.

Watkins is a good route runner at all three levels of the field. However, the Rams don't have another player who is even close to the vertical threat Watkins is, so it makes more sense for him to run more downfield routes, while Kupp and Woods play closer to the line. Watkins gets good releases off the line and has the deep speed to warrant a ton of attention. That allows someone like Kupp to get cleaner releases and better coverage:

This is a great read and visual on the role that Watkins plays in the Rams offense:
https://www.turfshowtimes.com/2017/11/2 ... ing-report

My problem is that there are a lot of good NFL WRs with deep speed, who also see targets all over the field. It's really odd that a player of Sammy's name value finished 4th on his team in targets and receptions - this with the top option missing games, even. I understand the idea that they used him to open up the field. But if that's the value he brings, he's worth more to NFL teams than he is to my fantasy roster.

We only call Mike Wallace a one-trick pony after the fact. He put up much better numbers than Watkins is now, in Pitt, and was signed to huge money in MIA. Watkins won't get that kind of money, relative to the cap.

[Concept Coop]

Both of those stats are slanted towards deep threats in efficient offenses. They loved Mike Wallace in Pitt and currently love Ted Ginn Jr in NO.

It's not slanted towards big play WR's unless you are super-efficient at it.

Right. Like Mike Wallace, Ted Ginn Jr., and Sammy Watkins. All 3 are very good deep threats.

[StableOfRBs]

I certainly concede that Sammy ran more deep stuff. But maybe that says something about Sammy; maybe he's more Mike Wallace than Antonio Brown.

Can you give me examples or share which games you watched?

He's not Mike Wallace though. Wallace is a one-trick pony, who can't win on each level of the field.

Watkins is a good route runner at all three levels of the field. However, the Rams don't have another player who is even close to the vertical threat Watkins is, so it makes more sense for him to run more downfield routes, while Kupp and Woods play closer to the line. Watkins gets good releases off the line and has the deep speed to warrant a ton of attention. That allows someone like Kupp to get cleaner releases and better coverage:

This is a great read and visual on the role that Watkins plays in the Rams offense:
https://www.turfshowtimes.com/2017/11/2 ... ing-report

It should be noted that like half the example clips/gifs in that article are Watkins playing against the 49ers defense who are one of the worst passing defenses in the league, same with the Colts and Giants, in fact the only decent defense that was shown in that article were the Saints and the article itself even pointed out that in that game NO was missing it's top two CBs. Even the clips against the Redskins are only used to highlight that Watkins was a good decoy for Kupp. I generally don't like the "taking advantage of a bad defense" argument but when you're trying to highlight a guy's strengths at least don't show him playing against the teams sitting at the bottom of the barrel.

Also I find it kind of funny that they said his ability to gain YAC is understated which while somewhat accurate (he has ~33% of his yards as YAC) is still worse than Woods (37%) and Kupp (42%). Yes, I get it, it has to do with the different types of routes they run but still a weird thing to highlight when he's the worst of the top 3 WRs on his own team.

Last, and this is more just a personal rant on my part, I can understand the whole "chemistry/trust" thing being an issue when guys get traded late in the preseason or midseason (Sam Bradford last year, Kelvin Benjamin this year) or even a guy like Jordan Matthews who was involved in the trade with Sammy who got hurt almost immediately and missed both the second half of the preseason and a few weeks of the regular season. But, when it's a guy like Watkins who had 2 weeks of preseason, stayed healthy all year, and even had to assume a larger role when Woods got hurt, to me that argument goes right out the window. Sure I can admit that it might be a problem for 3, 4, maybe even 5 games into the season but these are all professional ball players who know how to adjust to changes like this. Goff and Sammy have played an entire season together so far (since they'll be rested this week) so at what point does the "chemistry" argument go from being a valid reason for decreased looks/production and start just becoming a crutch used to excuse poor results.

[Concept Coop]

I'm likely beating a dead horse at this point, but one more thought. When it's 3 and 8 in the 4th QTR of a close game, Cincy is looking for Green; ATL is looking for Julio; NO is looking for Thomas, and DAL is looking for Dez. It bothers me that STL is looking for Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp in those situations, even if utilizing Sammy as a decoy. Julio is faster and a better deep threat than Sammy, yet still leads his team in targets every single season.

[ninotoreS]

Watkins could still be a dynasty stud if he gets onto the right team/offense.

Watkins owners need to hope that Sammy insists on walking this offseason, and trying his luck elsewhere. He'll never be a target hog in McVay's spread-the-wealth offense, and Goff's NFL deep-ball isn't efficient enough to make Watkins statistically consistent specializing in a low target-volume vertical role.

Detroit is still looking for a true #1 receiver, and Stafford's deep-ball is as good as anyone's in the NFL.

[whodunnit]

Watkins could still be a dynasty stud if he gets onto the right team/offense.

Watkins owners need to hope that Sammy insists on walking this offseason, and trying his luck elsewhere. He'll never be a target hog in McVay's spread-the-wealth offense, and Goff's NFL deep-ball isn't efficient enough to make Watkins statistically consistent specializing in a low target-volume vertical role.

Detroit is still looking for a true #1 receiver, and Stafford's deep-ball is as good as anyone's in the NFL.

Watkins to SF.... I'd love it.

[Shcritters]

Watkins could still be a dynasty stud if he gets onto the right team/offense.

Watkins owners need to hope that Sammy insists on walking this offseason, and trying his luck elsewhere. He'll never be a target hog in McVay's spread-the-wealth offense, and Goff's NFL deep-ball isn't efficient enough to make Watkins statistically consistent specializing in a low target-volume vertical role.

Detroit is still looking for a true #1 receiver, and Stafford's deep-ball is as good as anyone's in the NFL.

Watkins to SF.... I'd love it.

I’m working getting my son potty trained, but if that happened I would piddle myself with excitement. Would be tough to explain that one to my boy...

[whodunnit]

Watkins could still be a dynasty stud if he gets onto the right team/offense.

Watkins owners need to hope that Sammy insists on walking this offseason, and trying his luck elsewhere. He'll never be a target hog in McVay's spread-the-wealth offense, and Goff's NFL deep-ball isn't efficient enough to make Watkins statistically consistent specializing in a low target-volume vertical role.

Detroit is still looking for a true #1 receiver, and Stafford's deep-ball is as good as anyone's in the NFL.

Watkins to SF.... I'd love it.

I’m working getting my so potty trained, but if that happened I would piddle myself with excitement. Would be tough to explain that one to my boy...

haha, I'm working with a niners fan and I'm working out a 'dream off-season' type thing for the niners... I'm not going to continue to derail this thread with it, but I'm just saying, I would be a niners fan if half of it happened. PM me if interested haha

[Dookmarriot]

So question for the group - who would you rather have, Sammy or Amari?

[whodunnit]

So question for the group - who would you rather have, Sammy or Amari?

Sammy.

[ArrylT]

So question for the group - who would you rather have, Sammy or Amari?

Both.

[lukkynumber13]

So question for the group - who would you rather have, Sammy or Amari?

I think Sammy.

1. Both guys have suffered from injuries throughout their careers (Sammy is at least healthy now, and has been all year)

2. Both have great draft pedigree and everything that comes with being a top-flight prospect.

3. Both guys have excelled against NFL competition for chunks of 2 years each.

4. For me, the tiebreaker is that Amari has been given ample opportunity to be involved in his team's success this year, and has largely squandered it. Sammy has not yet been given the keys to the sports car, but the targets he has received have led to immense production.