Dynasty Ramifications of the new CBA

[Goirish374]

I am curious what people think the impact on dynasty league structure might be given some of the changes in the new CBA. Some questions pop off the page to me:

(yes, there is a thread already associated with this topic, viewtopic.php?f=5&t=195074&hilit=schedule, but it largely devolved into posters' opinions on the CBA...i'd like to focus on what these known changes will mean for dynasty leagues)

-18 week, 17 game season (from 17week, 16 games)
-3 preseason games (from 4)
-14 playoff teams, 6 wildcards, two 1st round byes (from 12)

a) Will leagues stick to FF championship in week 16? Do we think leagues will extend their championship game to week 17 or do we think NFL teams will treat weeks 17 and 18 the same (I don't)? If fantasy leagues hold their championship game in week 17 would you extend the fantasy season by a week (as i would imagine) or add an additional week of playoffs?

b) Will we still have 14 team leagues? If the fantasy football regular season becomes 14 weeks long, the principle advantage of playing each other team once would lead us to embrace 15 team leagues instead, wouldn't it?

-active roster 55 players (from 53) allowing 1-2 game-day only practice squad promotions with automatic post game reversion
-game day roster 47 players (from 46) and can go to 48 if 8 are OL
-12 player practice squad going to 14 in 2022 (up from 10)

c) More practice squad space means more speculative and UDFA adds for NFL teams. depending on how you like your math, this could be an increase in the number of "rostered players" across the NFL...should dynasty rosters increase as well? Will more leagues utilize practice squads or increase their size? (there is an argument that if you don't have poaching/eligibility rules for practice squads in your league, you should simply increase the roster size rather than have a practice squad)

-2 practice squad players have no eligibility requirements (this will be 4 players after 2022)
-free practice squad spot for one non-US citizen player (league option)
-a shift from disciplinary suspensions to disciplinary fines

d) If my understanding is correct 2 practice squad players (4 by 2022) can be any player who agrees to the contract. Dez, TO, jamaal charles at the end of their attempted comebacks come to mind. This would seem to dramatically increase the "flyer-ability" of mostly washed up veterans who want to keep playing for any amount of money they can get. I think this change has the potential for profound ramifications on how dynasty leagues run their wire acquisitions and roster spots in-season particularly if league sizes don't change.

e) The change in disciplinary approach seems to have potentially profound ramifications on the risk-reward calculus for players who, for many owners, wouldn't have been worth the suspension risk before 2020. the obvious talking point is josh gordon in 2018. how would his value have changed if there was no risk of suspension for him?

Finally, while there was no explicit addition of a second in-season bye week or an 18th game...there was enough talk about them to believe they sit atop the list of "what's coming next."

f) How does a second bye week affect 2QB and Superflex formats? I can't imagine that "running lean" at 2+1 would be even remotely viable in that environment. Would it kill 2QB entirely in favor of SF, even at the 10 team league size?

[Shankopotamus]

Good question for discussion.

I just hope my league keeps championship week week 16.

Sure, it's be nice to have another week of banter, but man would it suck if you had Lamar Jackson this year, and they shut him down championship week since there wasn't a need to win.

[Pac_Eddy]

I will keep my leauge's championship in week 16 until I see at least one full real NFL season of the new system. It's possible that some team has their playoff seed locked up and benches players for the last two weeks.

I don't see how 14 team leagues are affected so much, they'll just have to adjust the schedule. Do double headers, or if they don't want that, make a pre-planned schedule rotation. There are a lot of options with schedules to meet league preferences.

I doubt the NFL roster changes won't have an affect on fantasy leagues. The the most part, the new CBA changes very little for fantasy purposes.

[ckrumm24]

Our 12 team league I think decided on extending the regular seasons game so everyone plays each other once. Championship being week 16. There was some talk of making the championship 2 weeks instead but the former option won out. I don’t think you need to scrap 2QB leagues, teams will just have to adjust to the new reality. I don’t see any other material impacts to dynasty.

[Goirish374]

My thought process is that with more games in the regular season + more playoff teams...more NFL teams have more opportunity for late season surge into a playoff spot. My based-on-nothing prediction is more teams will be playing harder at the end of the season, not fewer...which would that while plenty of NFL teams might take week 18 off, almost none would take week 17 off.

but, you know, that's a guess. giving it a year to see what they actually do makes perfect sense.

I don't see how 14 team leagues are affected so much

i should have been more clear: i meant how would it affect the formation of *new* 14 team leagues. why would you make a 14 team league at this point? clearly existing leagues would adapt, adjust and overcome.

[OhCruelestRanter]

A- depends on when the bye weeks stop. If there are byes in week 14, playoffs will be week 15-17.

B- I doubt anybody is doing odd numbered leagues. 14 team leagues could keep the same schedule and ignore weeks 17-18. 12 teamers can have 3 divisions of 4, where you play everybody in your division twice (6) everybody outside it once (8) and have playoffs weeks 15-17.

C- I always favor bigger rosters but we’re talking about a few more practice squad guys being active. I don’t think this moves the needle.

D- see “C”

E- Depends on if it changes what teams think. A lot of these guys drop in fantasy tanks not because fantasy gamers don’t trust them, but because NFL teams don’t and then they don’t get the draft capital.

F- are there definitely going to be two bye weeks? I thought there weren’t.

[Goirish374]

F- are there definitely going to be two bye weeks? I thought there weren’t.

not as of right now. there was significant discussion on this. ("while there was no explicit addition of a second in-season bye week or an 18th game...there was enough talk about them to believe they sit atop the list of "what's coming next."")

B- I doubt anybody is doing odd numbered leagues.

why not?

a 15 team league in a 14 week fantasy regular season is the pristine corollary to the 14 team league in the 13 week fantasy regular season, who really only exists so that everyone plays everyone else exactly once.

[OhCruelestRanter]

F- are there definitely going to be two bye weeks? I thought there weren’t.

not as of right now. there was significant discussion on this. ("while there was no explicit addition of a second in-season bye week or an 18th game...there was enough talk about them to believe they sit atop the list of "what's coming next."")

B- I doubt anybody is doing odd numbered leagues.

why not?

a 15 team league in a 14 week fantasy regular season is the pristine corollary to the 14 team league in the 13 week fantasy regular season, who really only exists so that everyone plays everyone else exactly once.

Except that every week somebody would need a bye week or a multi-team matchup. Scheduling that would be nightmare. Sites other than MFL might not even support it.

[Goirish374]

Sites other than MFL might not even support it.

that's fair.

its entirely possible i'm in too many leagues that do multi-headers and have lost touch with scheduling reality. an eloquent example of theoretical rubber hitting the practical road.

ETA: there have been lots of changes over the years, though. perhaps i'm overly optimistic to think so but...i feel that if there is something that people are clamoring for then the sites will adapt to provide it. the examples are legion.

[CGW]

At this point I see zero changes for my leagues. After the initial shock sets in, I honestly don't see much of a change in the NFL either. Teams will still gun for the bye, so it'll be similar to now with most teams still in the hunt week 16-17. In years when they revisit this agreement, I'll worry about the 18th game, which I think will be a little more impactful to our fantasy leagues.

[ArrylT]

viewtopic.php?f=81&t=197818

Also a CBA specific thread here for those who want to talk about the CBA as it reflects to the NFL. Kudos to the OP for specifying that this thread is for dynasty implications.

[mild]

Sure, it's be nice to have another week of banter, but man would it suck if you had Lamar Jackson this year, and they shut him down championship week since there wasn't a need to win.

One point I've not seen mentioned yet:

There may actually be less teams resting players, as only the top team gets the first round bye now - which is a clear and huge advantage. Any teams "still in it" will want to go for that. It will be truly crazy if that seeding is completely locked up with 2 weeks left to play.

[FantasyFreak]

Sure, it's be nice to have another week of banter, but man would it suck if you had Lamar Jackson this year, and they shut him down championship week since there wasn't a need to win.

One point I've not seen mentioned yet:

There may actually be less teams resting players, as only the top team gets the first round bye now - which is a clear and huge advantage. Any teams "still in it" will want to go for that. It will be truly crazy if that seeding is completely locked up with 2 weeks left to play.

In theory, but my league will run the same way. First year will be wait and see. Don't want to create any issues with the finals. Teams that lock up a middling division 2 games left but are 3 games out from the 1st seed may choose to rest their players for the wild card round, now that it's an extra game, wild card teams will be even more banged up trying to make it to the SB. Typically resting 2 weeks hasn't worked well, and most teams haven't done it in the past, but it's still a risk without having any background to this.

[mild]

In theory, but my league will run the same way. First year will be wait and see. Don't want to create any issues with the finals. Teams that lock up a middling division 2 games left but are 3 games out from the 1st seed may choose to rest their players for the wild card round, now that it's an extra game, wild card teams will be even more banged up trying to make it to the SB. Typically resting 2 weeks hasn't worked well, and most teams haven't done it in the past, but it's still a risk without having any background to this.

You don't think that the seeding of 6 entire games being in play won't be a factor? A locked up division doesn't mean what it used to. You'd still want home field for as much of the playoffs as possible.

[FantasyFreak]

In theory, but my league will run the same way. First year will be wait and see. Don't want to create any issues with the finals. Teams that lock up a middling division 2 games left but are 3 games out from the 1st seed may choose to rest their players for the wild card round, now that it's an extra game, wild card teams will be even more banged up trying to make it to the SB. Typically resting 2 weeks hasn't worked well, and most teams haven't done it in the past, but it's still a risk without having any background to this.

You don't think that the seeding of 6 entire games being in play won't be a factor? A locked up division doesn't mean what it used to. You'd still want home field for as much of the playoffs as possible.

That's a good point. You do get the first home game, but your record for the next round becomes more of a factor. I didn't think of that. Well done.