Running Back Vulnerability Index

[OhCruelestRanter]

I thought it would be interesting to investigate which running backs the community thinks are likely to see a decrease in value following the 2020 draft. The poll only allows for 15 choices, so I went with the 15 guys who I thought would generate the most discussion.

Comment and let us know who you voted for and who you think their team is going to take that will tank their value.

[CGW]

Jones, Williams, Johnson, and Conner. I think they all add a back in the draft. No clue who takes who where and don't really care...but any competition for any of these guys will be bad for their value.

[Jigga94]

Jones, Williams, Johnson, and Conner. I think they all add a back in the draft. No clue who takes who where and don't really care...but any competition for any of these guys will be bad for their value.

X2 I also added Gurley in my selections.

Don't like Rojo, but still think they sign someone...

DaHen is still trash

[skinfanjon]

Agree with most. KJ is one of the runaways but his value is already depressed and I'm not sure they spend a high enough pick to drive it down significantly further.

[FantasyFreak]

Rojo, KJ, Conner, Gurley, Singletary.

[FantasyFreak]

Not surprised by the numbers so far. The only one I am a bit surprised at is that so many people think the Rams are going to sink any significant capital with the little they have into a RB when they have so many other holes to fill.

[OhCruelestRanter]

Not surprised by the numbers so far. The only one I am a bit surprised at is that so many people think the Rams are going to sink any significant capital with the little they have into a RB when they have so many other holes to fill.

Agreed. They desperately need offensive line help.

[Mjvb5]

I voted Chris Carson as my one different than normal vote. I love Carson, and I think he’ll be a value buy but the seahawks have to bring someone in. He’s iffy for camp and they can’t really medically evaluate him and penny is also projected to be hurt going into the year and they also can’t evaluate him.
They didn’t bring in a low value place holder so I feel like they have to bring a guy in in case Carson is hurt

[Jigga94]

I voted Chris Carson as my one different than normal vote. I love Carson, and I think he’ll be a value buy but the seahawks have to bring someone in. He’s iffy for camp and they can’t really medically evaluate him and penny is also projected to be hurt going into the year and they also can’t evaluate him.
They didn’t bring in a low value place holder so I feel like they have to bring a guy in in case Carson is hurt

Penny may also not be ready for camp, correct?

[kadun2]

I voted Chris Carson as my one different than normal vote. I love Carson, and I think he’ll be a value buy but the seahawks have to bring someone in. He’s iffy for camp and they can’t really medically evaluate him and penny is also projected to be hurt going into the year and they also can’t evaluate him.
They didn’t bring in a low value place holder so I feel like they have to bring a guy in in case Carson is hurt

Carson was one of my votes for those reasons also.

[ericanadian]

The problem with most of these guys being included on this list, is that replacement is already baked into most of their values. I don’t think anyone is counting on Rojo leading the backfield next year and his value would only really be impacted if they didn’t bring a guy in.

I’ll add Lindsay in Denver, if only just to throw out a dark horse. The assumption seems to be that it will be a 1A/1B situation with Gordon being Thunder to Lindsay’s Lightning and that Freeman will be the third back on the roster. The talk out of Denver is that there is near zero interest in a Lindsay extension and that Gordon is leading this backfield.

Now, consider that Gordon and Freeman are both under contract until 2022 and that Lindsay will be an RFA in 2021. Are they going to want to have to completely rebuild the backfield in two years? They have three thirds and a fourth and there is solid depth at the position in this draft. Any one of those picks could go to a RB and if that RB happens to have a complete profile or even a receiving back profile, it could further drop Lindsay’s value in a significant way as it becomes clear that he is not in the long term plans for Denver.

[Cowboysfan33]

I voted for Kerryon, Conner and ROJO. I have traded 2 out of 3 of my shares of Kerryon this offseason so far because I’ve lost faith in him ever staying healthy and “if” they do take a RB, that could be the final blow. I haven’t traded any of my ROJO shares but it’s mainly because no one will offer much and I’d rather gamble that they don’t bring in a high draft pick, because if they don’t, his value should go up.

[skinfanjon]

The problem with most of these guys being included on this list, is that replacement is already baked into most of their values. I don’t think anyone is counting on Rojo leading the backfield next year and his value would only really be impacted if they didn’t bring a guy in.

I’ll add Lindsay in Denver, if only just to throw out a dark horse. The assumption seems to be that it will be a 1A/1B situation with Gordon being Thunder to Lindsay’s Lightning and that Freeman will be the third back on the roster. The talk out of Denver is that there is near zero interest in a Lindsay extension and that Gordon is leading this backfield.

Now, consider that Gordon and Freeman are both under contract until 2022 and that Lindsay will be an RFA in 2021. Are they going to want to have to completely rebuild the backfield in two years? They have three thirds and a fourth and there is solid depth at the position in this draft. Any one of those picks could go to a RB and if that RB happens to have a complete profile or even a receiving back profile, it could further drop Lindsay’s value in a significant way as it becomes clear that he is not in the long term plans for Denver.

Really like the thought process here and hadn't looked that far ahead myself. It actually makes me wonder if he could be a trade candidate, either this year or next. If that were the case he'd make for a sneaky buy. Pure speculation on my part though. More likely, we've seen the best two years of his career already.

[ArrylT]

Interesting results so far, and will be intriguing to see how it plays out for sure - less than a month to go!

[Pullo Vision]

I think all of these RBs could see a reduction of value, either BECAUSE of new draftees, or events before the draft (FA signees, contract negotiations). In my book, for a player to see a "significant" value drop, their value must be significant in the first place. I roughly put that at a mid 2nd and decided these players (1) currently have significant value and (2) could see their value drop significantly- Singletary, Gurley, Kerryon, Le'Veon, Conner. I think Singletary is one of the most obvious candidates for this. A team dedicated to the run is losing more than half of its 2019 RB runs. Singletary won't gobble up all those touches.