Running Back Vulnerability Index

General talk about Dynasty Leagues.

Select all the RBs that you think will see their value decrease significantly after the 2020 Draft

Poll ended at Tue Apr 07, 2020 4:52 pm

Aaron Jones
18
3%
Austin Ekeler
32
6%
Devin Singletary
44
8%
Todd Gurley
28
5%
Kerryon Johnson
62
11%
Le'Veon Bell
14
2%
David Montgomery
14
2%
Kenyan Drake
13
2%
Marlon Mack
29
5%
James Conner
69
12%
Derrius Guice
14
2%
Chris Carson
27
5%
Damien Williams
71
13%
Darrell Henderson
45
8%
Ronald Jones
85
15%
 
Total votes: 565

OhCruelestRanter
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Running Back Vulnerability Index

Postby OhCruelestRanter » Tue Mar 31, 2020 4:52 pm

I thought it would be interesting to investigate which running backs the community thinks are likely to see a decrease in value following the 2020 draft. The poll only allows for 15 choices, so I went with the 15 guys who I thought would generate the most discussion.

Comment and let us know who you voted for and who you think their team is going to take that will tank their value.
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Re: Running Back Vulnerability Index

Postby CGW » Tue Mar 31, 2020 4:57 pm

Jones, Williams, Johnson, and Conner. I think they all add a back in the draft. No clue who takes who where and don't really care...but any competition for any of these guys will be bad for their value.
12 Team | SF | PPR | 6pt pass TD
QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, FL, SF

QB | Cousins, Darnold, Trubisky
RB | Mixon, Singletary, Taylor, Barber, R. Freeman, Ballage, D. Thompson, Gaskin
WR | Adams, Evans, Golladay, Cooper, Washington, D. Johnson, Conley, Amendola, A. Miller, Cephas
TE | Andrews, Herndon, Everett, Sternberger

10 Team | SF | PPR
QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, FL, SF

QB | Rodgers, Murray, Minshew
RB | Chubb, Montgomery, Guice, Singletary, Ballage, Edmonds, Murray, R. Jones, Dobbins, Swift
WR | Golladay, Godwin, Kirk, M. Brown, JJAW, Renfrow, Slayton, Reynolds, D. Johnson, Aiyuk
TE | Andrews, Henry, Herndon, Everett

12 Team | SF | PPR | 6pt pass TD
QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, FL, FL, SF

QB | Watson, Wilson, Darnold, Trubisky, Fromme, Rosen
RB | Guice, Hines, Penny, Henderson, Mattison
WR | Evans, Golladay, Ridley, D. Samuel, D. Johnson, Pittman, Westbrook, Coutee, Mooney, Meyers, T. Smith
TE | Ertz, Herndon, Sternberger, Oliver, Warring

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Re: Running Back Vulnerability Index

Postby Jigga94 » Tue Mar 31, 2020 5:25 pm

CGW wrote:
Tue Mar 31, 2020 4:57 pm
Jones, Williams, Johnson, and Conner. I think they all add a back in the draft. No clue who takes who where and don't really care...but any competition for any of these guys will be bad for their value.
X2 I also added Gurley in my selections.

Don't like Rojo, but still think they sign someone...

DaHen is still trash
2QB, 2RB, 3WR, TE, FLEX - PPR - 14 Keepers
QB: Mahomes, Baker, D. Jones, Minshew, Luck
RB: Mostert, Sony, Penny, D. Freeman, Snell, J. Jackson, Hyde, Gaskin
WR: Tyreek, DJM, Julio, Hollywood, Cooks, Preston, Parris, C. Davis, MVS
TE: Andrews, Henry, Fant, Irv
2020: 1.02, 2.02, 3.02, 4.02, 4.08

2QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, 3FLEX - PPR - 20 Keepers
QB: Dak, Ryan, Minshew, Hurts
RB: CMC, Jacobs, Dobbins, Hunt, Cohen, Penny, Hines, Bowden
WR: DJM, Chark, Ruggs, Reagor, Hardman, Mike Will, Diontae, Parris, C. Davis, Lazard
TE: Andrews, Henry, Gesicki
2021: 1, 1, 2, 3

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Re: Running Back Vulnerability Index

Postby skinfanjon » Tue Mar 31, 2020 5:31 pm

Agree with most. KJ is one of the runaways but his value is already depressed and I'm not sure they spend a high enough pick to drive it down significantly further.

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Re: Running Back Vulnerability Index

Postby FantasyFreak » Tue Mar 31, 2020 5:45 pm

Rojo, KJ, Conner, Gurley, Singletary.
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Record: 28-5 Division Champ/League High Scorer/Runner Up

Wentz, Stafford. Driskel
Chubb, Cook, Breida, Ekeler, Penny, James White, D Washington
Evans, Sutton, Woods, Crowder, Agholor, Sanu, , D Robinson, T Taylor
Kittle, Olsen, McDonald, Clay

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Re: Running Back Vulnerability Index

Postby FantasyFreak » Tue Mar 31, 2020 6:58 pm

Not surprised by the numbers so far. The only one I am a bit surprised at is that so many people think the Rams are going to sink any significant capital with the little they have into a RB when they have so many other holes to fill.
DLF Early Birds Special/ Year 1 (16 Team SuperFlex 25 man roster Start 10)

Record: 28-5 Division Champ/League High Scorer/Runner Up

Wentz, Stafford. Driskel
Chubb, Cook, Breida, Ekeler, Penny, James White, D Washington
Evans, Sutton, Woods, Crowder, Agholor, Sanu, , D Robinson, T Taylor
Kittle, Olsen, McDonald, Clay

Taxi: Mims, Asiasi

I don't care about your SFBX team.

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Re: Running Back Vulnerability Index

Postby OhCruelestRanter » Tue Mar 31, 2020 7:05 pm

FantasyFreak wrote:
Tue Mar 31, 2020 6:58 pm
Not surprised by the numbers so far. The only one I am a bit surprised at is that so many people think the Rams are going to sink any significant capital with the little they have into a RB when they have so many other holes to fill.
Agreed. They desperately need offensive line help.
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Re: Running Back Vulnerability Index

Postby Mjvb5 » Tue Mar 31, 2020 7:23 pm

I voted Chris Carson as my one different than normal vote. I love Carson, and I think he’ll be a value buy but the seahawks have to bring someone in. He’s iffy for camp and they can’t really medically evaluate him and penny is also projected to be hurt going into the year and they also can’t evaluate him.
They didn’t bring in a low value place holder so I feel like they have to bring a guy in in case Carson is hurt
12 team ppr 1qb 2rb 2wt 1te 1 flex 2lb 2db 2dl 1dflex
Eli manning,
A. Brown, Dez, TY Hilton,Crabtree, K. Aiken
D. Free, Howard, Ingram, demarco, AP, Powell
Kelce
Cam Jordan,Calais Campbell, Suh, Heyward, Sheard
Ogletree, Davis, Poz,Ragland, Woodyard, Misi, Demario Davis, Casillas
, Cyprien, Chancellor,

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Re: Running Back Vulnerability Index

Postby Jigga94 » Tue Mar 31, 2020 7:29 pm

Mjvb5 wrote:
Tue Mar 31, 2020 7:23 pm
I voted Chris Carson as my one different than normal vote. I love Carson, and I think he’ll be a value buy but the seahawks have to bring someone in. He’s iffy for camp and they can’t really medically evaluate him and penny is also projected to be hurt going into the year and they also can’t evaluate him.
They didn’t bring in a low value place holder so I feel like they have to bring a guy in in case Carson is hurt
Penny may also not be ready for camp, correct?
2QB, 2RB, 3WR, TE, FLEX - PPR - 14 Keepers
QB: Mahomes, Baker, D. Jones, Minshew, Luck
RB: Mostert, Sony, Penny, D. Freeman, Snell, J. Jackson, Hyde, Gaskin
WR: Tyreek, DJM, Julio, Hollywood, Cooks, Preston, Parris, C. Davis, MVS
TE: Andrews, Henry, Fant, Irv
2020: 1.02, 2.02, 3.02, 4.02, 4.08

2QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, 3FLEX - PPR - 20 Keepers
QB: Dak, Ryan, Minshew, Hurts
RB: CMC, Jacobs, Dobbins, Hunt, Cohen, Penny, Hines, Bowden
WR: DJM, Chark, Ruggs, Reagor, Hardman, Mike Will, Diontae, Parris, C. Davis, Lazard
TE: Andrews, Henry, Gesicki
2021: 1, 1, 2, 3

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Re: Running Back Vulnerability Index

Postby azthecrow » Tue Mar 31, 2020 7:38 pm

Mjvb5 wrote:
Tue Mar 31, 2020 7:23 pm
I voted Chris Carson as my one different than normal vote. I love Carson, and I think he’ll be a value buy but the seahawks have to bring someone in. He’s iffy for camp and they can’t really medically evaluate him and penny is also projected to be hurt going into the year and they also can’t evaluate him.
They didn’t bring in a low value place holder so I feel like they have to bring a guy in in case Carson is hurt
Carson was one of my votes for those reasons also.

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Re: Running Back Vulnerability Index

Postby ericanadian » Tue Mar 31, 2020 7:50 pm

The problem with most of these guys being included on this list, is that replacement is already baked into most of their values. I don’t think anyone is counting on Rojo leading the backfield next year and his value would only really be impacted if they didn’t bring a guy in.

I’ll add Lindsay in Denver, if only just to throw out a dark horse. The assumption seems to be that it will be a 1A/1B situation with Gordon being Thunder to Lindsay’s Lightning and that Freeman will be the third back on the roster. The talk out of Denver is that there is near zero interest in a Lindsay extension and that Gordon is leading this backfield.

Now, consider that Gordon and Freeman are both under contract until 2022 and that Lindsay will be an RFA in 2021. Are they going to want to have to completely rebuild the backfield in two years? They have three thirds and a fourth and there is solid depth at the position in this draft. Any one of those picks could go to a RB and if that RB happens to have a complete profile or even a receiving back profile, it could further drop Lindsay’s value in a significant way as it becomes clear that he is not in the long term plans for Denver.
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QB - Stafford, Tannehill, Mariota
RB - Gordon, Cook, Penny, Guice, Harris, Laird, Love
WR - Julio, C. Davis, AJ Brown, Samuel, Washington, Di. Johnson, Isabella
TE - Henry, Andrews
LB - Kuechly, R. Smith
DL - Hunter, Armstead, Quinn
DB - D. James, Baker, Edmunds
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Re: Running Back Vulnerability Index

Postby Cowboysfan33 » Tue Mar 31, 2020 8:14 pm

I voted for Kerryon, Conner and ROJO. I have traded 2 out of 3 of my shares of Kerryon this offseason so far because I’ve lost faith in him ever staying healthy and “if” they do take a RB, that could be the final blow. I haven’t traded any of my ROJO shares but it’s mainly because no one will offer much and I’d rather gamble that they don’t bring in a high draft pick, because if they don’t, his value should go up.

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Re: Running Back Vulnerability Index

Postby skinfanjon » Tue Mar 31, 2020 8:23 pm

ericanadian wrote:
Tue Mar 31, 2020 7:50 pm
The problem with most of these guys being included on this list, is that replacement is already baked into most of their values. I don’t think anyone is counting on Rojo leading the backfield next year and his value would only really be impacted if they didn’t bring a guy in.

I’ll add Lindsay in Denver, if only just to throw out a dark horse. The assumption seems to be that it will be a 1A/1B situation with Gordon being Thunder to Lindsay’s Lightning and that Freeman will be the third back on the roster. The talk out of Denver is that there is near zero interest in a Lindsay extension and that Gordon is leading this backfield.

Now, consider that Gordon and Freeman are both under contract until 2022 and that Lindsay will be an RFA in 2021. Are they going to want to have to completely rebuild the backfield in two years? They have three thirds and a fourth and there is solid depth at the position in this draft. Any one of those picks could go to a RB and if that RB happens to have a complete profile or even a receiving back profile, it could further drop Lindsay’s value in a significant way as it becomes clear that he is not in the long term plans for Denver.
Really like the thought process here and hadn't looked that far ahead myself. It actually makes me wonder if he could be a trade candidate, either this year or next. If that were the case he'd make for a sneaky buy. Pure speculation on my part though. More likely, we've seen the best two years of his career already.

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Re: Running Back Vulnerability Index

Postby ArrylT » Tue Mar 31, 2020 8:44 pm

Interesting results so far, and will be intriguing to see how it plays out for sure - less than a month to go!
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Re: Running Back Vulnerability Index

Postby Pullo Vision » Tue Mar 31, 2020 10:22 pm

I think all of these RBs could see a reduction of value, either BECAUSE of new draftees, or events before the draft (FA signees, contract negotiations). In my book, for a player to see a "significant" value drop, their value must be significant in the first place. I roughly put that at a mid 2nd and decided these players (1) currently have significant value and (2) could see their value drop significantly- Singletary, Gurley, Kerryon, Le'Veon, Conner. I think Singletary is one of the most obvious candidates for this. A team dedicated to the run is losing more than half of its 2019 RB runs. Singletary won't gobble up all those touches.
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