Duke Johnson's worth now

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Huh
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Re: Duke Johnson

Postby Huh » Thu Aug 08, 2019 8:05 am

I don’t know Watson’s tendencies off hand but running qbs tend to not use pass catching backs. They scramble instead of checking down. Duke should still get plenty of touches though. Poor little Lamar.

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Re: Duke Johnson

Postby grandmabetty » Thu Aug 08, 2019 8:06 am

Does this diminish keke's value? I feel like he and Duke would be vying for the same short area targets
ppr, 10 team, 6 pt all td, 40 man roster QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, TE, 2 Flex (r/w/t), K, IDP
Qb- Kyler Murray, cousins, Roethlisberger
RB- Melvin Gordon, Kamara, CMC, Mark Ingram, james white, Gus Edwards, Justin Jackson, Bryce Love
WR- Mike Evans, tyreek hill, Davante Adams, Juju Smith-Shuster,Tyler Boyd, Paris Campbell, Hollywood brown, Perriman, Steve sims jr
TE- kelce, Greg Olsen, Tyler Higbee, jarwin
DT - Chris Jones
DE - Demarcus Lawrence, Chandler Jones
LB - Blake Martinez, Bobby Wagner, Todd Davis, nick kwiatkoski, danny travatheon
CB - NONE
S - Landon Collins, John Johnson III, Antoine Bethea, eric reid

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2020 4th (0)
2020 5th (1)

2021 1st (3)
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Re: Duke Johnson

Postby FantasyDumDum » Thu Aug 08, 2019 8:09 am

Unfortunately it’s a really bad spot for Duke if things don’t change in Houston.


Duke is ONLY relevant(and barely just so in PPR formats only) due to his pass catching. In four seasons he has: 61, 53, 74, 47 receptions.[He only averages 300+y and 1+ TD rushing those 4 entire years, so he doesn’t do much on the ground].


The Texans only produced 47 receptions TOTAL for their RBs last year! That is between Lamar Miller(25), Alfred Blue(20), and D’Onta Foreman(2), all above average pass catchers at the position. Heck, Miller had 47 catches himself in 2015 in Miami before coming over to Houston and having that part of his game minimized by the scheme.


So until we see otherwise, this looks like a bad fit. If they do work their playbook around Duke howver, there could be some upside, but it isn’t inherent as of now.
10 team, .5ppr, 1QB/2RB/2WR/1TE/1Flex

QB: Brees, Cousins
RB: CMC, D Williams, Drake, Guice, Penny, RoJo, Breida, I Smith, Edmonds
WR: AB, ARob, Ridley, Jeffery, Shepard, Pettis, Miller, Washington, MVS, Callaway
TE: Kelce, Herndon, Andrews

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Re: Duke Johnson

Postby hockeyBjj » Thu Aug 08, 2019 8:10 am

Chubbs numbers the first 12 weeks are going to be ridiculous
Team 1- 10 team ppr, 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 2Flx, 1D, 1K
2019: 5th place :wall:
Finishes: 6th, 6th, 1st, 5th
QB: Lamar Jackson, Russell Wilson
RB: Saquan Barkley, Dalvin Cook, Mark Ingram,JK Dobbins, Hyde, Gore
WR: Hopkins, Mike Evans, Juju Smith, T Boyd, Jarvis Landry, R Gage, G Tate, D Slayton, B Perriman, T Williams, A Miller, Beasley, Bourne, AB clown
TE: George Kittle, Higbee, Akins, Reed, K Smith
D/K: Patriots, Vikings, Titans, Jax, McManus Den
Taxi- D Henderson, A Mattison, B Snell
picks- 2021- 3,4 2022-1,2,4,5

team 2- 12 team ppr, 1QB, 3WR, 2RB, 1TE, 1WR/RB/TE, 1 RB/TE
Threepeat Champs 8-)
QB: Wilson, Cousins, Haskins
RB: CMC, D Cook, Kamara, D Henry, T Cohen, P Barber, M Brown, R Armstead,
WR:Hopkins, Arob, Golloday, Diggs, Edelman, M Williams, Fuller, Perriman, Westbrook, Hurns, Lazard, Dorsett, Higgins,
TE: Kelce, Andrews, Dissly, Akins
picks- 2021- 3,4,5 2022 1,2,3,4,5

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Re: Duke Johnson

Postby dlf_mikeh » Thu Aug 08, 2019 8:12 am

hockeyBjj wrote:
Thu Aug 08, 2019 8:03 am
4th round pick that can become a 3rd

So moderate amount of draft traded away by Texans for a good indicator
Moderate you say? I think they got top dollar. I don't think they could have gotten any more than that.

That's not to say Duke isn't worth it, but he was unhappy in Cleveland and his selling price was probably a lot lower than that to everybody else, especially since he just signed his $15m deal.

Everyone wins on that deal. Nicely done.
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Re: Duke Johnson

Postby Phaded » Thu Aug 08, 2019 8:12 am

This is a better real life move than fantasy for the Texans/Duke.
This also is great for Chubb to start the year.

The emergence of Hilliard likely made him expendable.

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Re: Duke Johnson

Postby killer_of_giants » Thu Aug 08, 2019 8:13 am

FantasyDumDum wrote:
Thu Aug 08, 2019 8:09 am
Unfortunately it’s a really bad spot for Duke if things don’t change in Houston.


Duke is ONLY relevant(and barely just so in PPR formats only) due to his pass catching. In four seasons he has: 61, 53, 74, 47 receptions.[He only averages 300+y and 1+ TD rushing those 4 entire years, so he doesn’t do much on the ground].
this is all meaningless without his fantasy points per touch!

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Re: Duke Johnson

Postby Bot101 » Thu Aug 08, 2019 8:31 am

I dont get why this improves Chubb's value. Does anyone recall how much Duke played last year???

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Re: Duke Johnson

Postby Phaded » Thu Aug 08, 2019 8:32 am

I think it is due to perceived lack of competition. This community is sleeping on Hilliard as a receiving threat though.

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Re: Duke Johnson

Postby snaps06 » Thu Aug 08, 2019 8:36 am

Is it possible Duke works heavily out of the slot? I was never on the Keke Coutee hype train, so I see that spot as wide open.

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Re: Duke Johnson

Postby jetsfan5757 » Thu Aug 08, 2019 8:40 am

FantasyDumDum wrote:
Thu Aug 08, 2019 8:09 am
Unfortunately it’s a really bad spot for Duke if things don’t change in Houston.


Duke is ONLY relevant(and barely just so in PPR formats only) due to his pass catching. In four seasons he has: 61, 53, 74, 47 receptions.[He only averages 300+y and 1+ TD rushing those 4 entire years, so he doesn’t do much on the ground].


The Texans only produced 47 receptions TOTAL for their RBs last year! That is between Lamar Miller(25), Alfred Blue(20), and D’Onta Foreman(2), all above average pass catchers at the position. Heck, Miller had 47 catches himself in 2015 in Miami before coming over to Houston and having that part of his game minimized by the scheme.


So until we see otherwise, this looks like a bad fit. If they do work their playbook around Duke howver, there could be some upside, but it isn’t inherent as of now.
I'm guessing they traded a 4th (potentially 3rd) round pick for someone that they intend to play, and play a decent amount.

Past does not equal future. My hunch is that Duke gets more carries than he ever got in Cleveland, and catches fewer passes.

Lamar Miller used to be more explosive with limited touches (something that can be said about Duke too). ASSUMING they give Duke carries, Houston can rotate both backs and keep them fresh without really tipping their hand as to what's coming. Both have shown good YPC, good pass blocking, and catching ability. There may be a slight run bias with Miller and pass bias with Duke, but it doesn't have to be pronounced.

As a Miller owner, I see this as a volume downgrade, point per touch bump, slight downgrade overall, and likely Miller's last season in Houston.
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QB (1): Brees, Darnold
RB (3): N. Chubb, David Johnson, D. Henry, J. Taylor, JK Dobbins, R. Penny, K. Vaughn
WR (3): D. Hopkins, D. Adams, J. Smith-Schuster, M. Evans, D.J. Moore, DJ Chark, B. Aiyuk, P. Williams, D. Mims
TE (2): H. Henry, O.J. Howard, I. Thomas, I. Smith Jr

K (1): Wil Lutz

DB (1): Landon Collins
LB (1): B. Martinez
DL (1): D. Fowler Jr.

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Re: Duke Johnson

Postby Pac_Eddy » Thu Aug 08, 2019 8:43 am

Duke runs best out of the shotgun formation and that's what the Texans use more than nearly anyone. I don't think he'll be huge for fantasy purposes, but I'm glad the situation is resolved so we can move on.

As for Chubb, he's a better receiver than he's usually given credit for, so a small uptick in his value is appropriate.
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Re: Duke Johnson

Postby Flgatorguy87 » Thu Aug 08, 2019 8:44 am

Great fit. Duke is a shotgun back. You know what Houston does more than any other team in the league? Run out of the shotgun.

I would also add. Compensation here is VERY telling. They gave up a possible 3rd for a guy that will get 45 touches next year? I don't think so.
SF PPR 30 man roster 5 taxi 2 IR
QB, 3WR, 2RB, 2TE, 2FLEX , Superflex

A. Rodgers, J. Goff, D. Lock, Ta. Hill

O. Beckham, Antonio Brown, M. Evans, A. Robinson, S. Diggs, C. Sutton, T. Boyd, Jakobi Meyers, S. Sims Jr., Darius Slayton

S. Barkley, Da. Cook, Cam Akers, JK Dobbins, R. Penny, Ronald Jones, W. Gallman, Duke Johnson, AJ Dillon, Darrynton Evans, DeeJay Dallas, L. Perine

G. Kittle, M. Andrews, H. Hurst

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Re: Duke Johnson

Postby The Grudge » Thu Aug 08, 2019 8:47 am

FantasyDumDum wrote:
Thu Aug 08, 2019 8:09 am
Unfortunately it’s a really bad spot for Duke if things don’t change in Houston.


Duke is ONLY relevant(and barely just so in PPR formats only) due to his pass catching. In four seasons he has: 61, 53, 74, 47 receptions.[He only averages 300+y and 1+ TD rushing those 4 entire years, so he doesn’t do much on the ground].


The Texans only produced 47 receptions TOTAL for their RBs last year! That is between Lamar Miller(25), Alfred Blue(20), and D’Onta Foreman(2), all above average pass catchers at the position. Heck, Miller had 47 catches himself in 2015 in Miami before coming over to Houston and having that part of his game minimized by the scheme.


So until we see otherwise, this looks like a bad fit. If they do work their playbook around Duke howver, there could be some upside, but it isn’t inherent as of now.
Is it because of who the Texans had? I know Miller is usually hated on, but a lot of people say Duke has some of the best hands for a RB in the NFL.
The Browns singed the guy to an extension, then didn't use him. Then Texans traded a 4th round pick for him. I cant see a team trading for a player then not using him to his abilities after the previous team didn't use him to his abilities. They must like something in Duke to acquire his services, while he is still on contract for what, 2 more years? I am going to assume due to rational thinking that they will work Duke into their system and use him frequently. One would hope he has a way better season then he did last year.
Team#1-12 team ppr 1QB/2RB/3WR/1TE/RB-WR-TE Flex/2DE/3LB/3DB/DE-LB-DB Flex 18 Starters
QB: Wilson, Winston, Allan, Big Ben
RB: Mixon, J. Taylor, Ekeler, R. Jones, Duke Johnson, Edmonds, J. Samuels, Harris, McKinnon
WR: Cooper, Hopkins, Godwin , Cooks, Higgins, Slayton, Shenault, Edwards,
TE: Kittle, Jonnu Smith, Albert O, Tonyan
K:
DE: Loannidis, Heyward
LB: Kuchely RIP, , Jayon Brown, Littleton, Leonard, Warner, Littleton, Kiser, Wilson, Gay, Adams
DB: Byard, Peters, Wilson

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Re: Duke Johnson

Postby Valhalla » Thu Aug 08, 2019 9:15 am

FantasyDumDum wrote:
Thu Aug 08, 2019 8:09 am

Duke is ONLY relevant(and barely just so in PPR formats only) due to his pass catching. In four seasons he has: 61, 53, 74, 47 receptions.[He only averages 300+y and 1+ TD rushing those 4 entire years, so he doesn’t do much on the ground].
Weird...I feel like someone...on the tip of my tongue...someone else...that I feel like you can't get off of...

Except...Duke has been WAY more efficient on the ground than that other guy was...


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