Duke Johnson's worth now

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Never Veto1
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Re: Duke Johnson

Postby Never Veto1 » Thu Aug 08, 2019 10:01 am

FantasyDumDum wrote: Thu Aug 08, 2019 9:51 am
Valhalla wrote: Thu Aug 08, 2019 9:45 am
FantasyDumDum wrote: Thu Aug 08, 2019 9:35 am

You’re obviously just trolling, which the mods do encourage here, but Duke is a career 1.01 FPPT player. That is NOT GOOD for a scat back which he is. For example, D Williams had a 1.19 FPPT in Miami and a whopping 1.35 in KC. That is elite even for a pass catching RB, and it is ALL TIME elite for a bellcow RB.



This might show how f’ing stupid any comparison between these two RBs is:

Duke, on 534 career touches over 64 games played, only has 13 career TDs.

D Williams, on only 111 touches in 5.5 games, had 10 TDs last year alone.


That is a pace of 0.20 TDs per game for Duke, and 1.8 TDs per game for D Williams, aka 3.2 TDs per season for Duke, and 29.0 per season for D Williams.
Oh boy...
I wasn't trolling. I was trying to bring your attention to something...like maybe an ownership bias you have.

Also...comparing the two on FANTASY POINTS PER TOUCH when one has an unsustainably high TD rate (29 per season?!) and one has a rate that could be expected to rise to the mean...

I'd say this shows "how f'ing stupid" it is to compare two RBs based solely on their FPPT...but I've already explained why too many times to repeat it.
D Williams didn’t have an unsustainable TD rate in Miami when he BLEW OUT OF THE WATER Duke’s TD rate and FPPT.

It doesn’t matter where my bias is. It doesn’t affect the numbers and stats which 110% back what I am posting, because it is the complete basis for everything I am posting.
You do realize that other than last year, for Duke's entire career he had played for the worst franchise ever.
20 Team Superflex (1/2 PPR / 6pt TD's)
11 Starters - QB 1(2), RB 2(4), WR 2(5), TE 2(3)


QB - Kirk Cousins, Deshaun Watson
RB - Christian McCaffrey, JK Dobbins, Tony Pollard, Jaylen Warren
WR - Odell Beckham, Adam Thielen, Allen Robinson, Donavan Peoples-Jones
TE - Mark Andrews, Jonnu Smith

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Re: Duke Johnson

Postby dynastyninja » Thu Aug 08, 2019 10:06 am

FantasyDumDum wrote: Thu Aug 08, 2019 9:44 am
dynastyninja wrote: Thu Aug 08, 2019 9:41 am Ah, good, glad we could get back to the important FPPT metric. I was worried it wouldn't be brought up.
Obviously you are also trolling, as again, the mods clearly encourage. But yes, FPPT is BY FAR(and it isn’t close) the most important and useful stat for RBs in fantasy.
Is it at all weird to you that you are the only guy touting this stat? What are the chances that you are smarter than the entire dynasty community who might view it as a somewhat useful metric but don't seem to base their entire opinion of a guy on it?

Nothing wrong with going against the grain, but that leaves an individual wrong more than right most of the time in my opinion.

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Re: Duke Johnson

Postby ColdZealDonkeyStrike » Thu Aug 08, 2019 10:37 am

Calling Alfred Blue and D'Onta Foreman above average as a receiving back is more than a stretch, IMO. Miller has been average, but Duke was better in that aspect at Miami, and has been much better as a pro. As a true freshman in a split backfield, Duke had 1 less reception than Miller had for his college career (2 years as the full-time starter).

I don't see Duke being used out of the slot much, but this could cause problems for Coutee (as someone said above). One of the reasons I liked both Coutee and Fuller was because Houston had no pass-catching RB or TE of consequence, but that is no longer the case.
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Re: Duke Johnson

Postby Mjvb5 » Thu Aug 08, 2019 10:45 am

Duke-value up obviously
Miller- down some in standard a lot in ppr
Any other backups-RIP whatever sell window there was
Keke-down a little
Fuller-down a little
Warring/Thomas-down a lot

If there giving up a third rounder for duke there’s no way around the fact that they plan on using him quite a bit. For reference here’s the rbs drafted that round this year, montgomery, henderson, singletary, Harris and mattison. Plus hill and love in the fourth. That’s some major draft capital to give up for an rb, especially one on a new deal. That to me points signs that they plan on using him more as a wr than an Rb which is great for fantasy

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Re: Duke Johnson

Postby djeternal2 » Thu Aug 08, 2019 10:50 am

Mjvb5 wrote: Thu Aug 08, 2019 10:45 am Duke-value up obviously
Miller- down some in standard a lot in ppr
Any other backups-RIP whatever sell window there was
Keke-down a little
Fuller-down a little
Warring/Thomas-down a lot

If there giving up a third rounder for duke there’s no way around the fact that they plan on using him quite a bit. For reference here’s the rbs drafted that round this year, montgomery, henderson, singletary, Harris and mattison. Plus hill and love in the fourth. That’s some major draft capital to give up for an rb, especially one on a new deal. That to me points signs that they plan on using him more as a wr than an Rb which is great for fantasy
And don't forget the Texans have to know that next year is a loaded draft class so it really is like they traded a 2nd for Duke.
10 tm ppr 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 2 Flex, TE, K, TDEF (Yr 6)
QB - Ryan, Wentz
RB - Gurley, A Jones, Cohen, Kerryon, Dam Williams, Duke, I Smith, Armstead, T Carson
WR - AJG, Watkins, ARob, A. Cooper, K Allen, M Williams, Godwin, Callaway, JJAW
TE - Gesicki, I Smith, Herndon, Eifert, Sternberger, Dissly

10 tm TE prem 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex, K, 2 DB, 2 DL, 2 LB (Yr 5)
QB - Mahomes, Mayfield, Wentz,
RB - Zeke, Chubb, Kerryon, Duke, Edmonds, B Hill
WR - Nuk, AJG, ARob, JJS, Samuel, MVS, T Smith, D Hamilton, Gallup, K Johnson
TE - Njoku, Eifert, Herndon, I Smith, I Thomas, Moreau
DL - Watt, K Clark, Q Williams
LB - D Jones, D Bush
DB - K Neal, Bell

DLF Early Birds - 16 tm SF (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 2 Flex, 1 SF
QB - A Rodgers, Darnold, Rosen, M Rudolph, Luck
RB - Damian Williams, J Howard, Duke, AP, Gore
WR - Julio, Golladay, Kirk, Stills, Manny Sanders, N Harry
TE - Jarwin, Gesicki, Boyle, Sprinkle

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Re: Duke Johnson

Postby Mjvb5 » Thu Aug 08, 2019 10:52 am

djeternal2 wrote: Thu Aug 08, 2019 10:50 am
Mjvb5 wrote: Thu Aug 08, 2019 10:45 am Duke-value up obviously
Miller- down some in standard a lot in ppr
Any other backups-RIP whatever sell window there was
Keke-down a little
Fuller-down a little
Warring/Thomas-down a lot

If there giving up a third rounder for duke there’s no way around the fact that they plan on using him quite a bit. For reference here’s the rbs drafted that round this year, montgomery, henderson, singletary, Harris and mattison. Plus hill and love in the fourth. That’s some major draft capital to give up for an rb, especially one on a new deal. That to me points signs that they plan on using him more as a wr than an Rb which is great for fantasy
And don't forget the Texans have to know that next year is a loaded draft class so it really is like they traded a 2nd for Duke.
I can’t tell if this is sarcasm or not
While this year might’ve been bad at the top for fantasy. People need to realize this was actually a phenomenal year for actual teams
Sure no rbs.... too bad that’s the least valuable nfl position
Amazing OL class, which we don’t pay attention to but amazing for so many nfl teams
Interior players same thing
DBs same thing
The positions that we care about are almost inversely related to what actual teams value so while this was bad for us it was great for them

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Re: Duke Johnson

Postby murphysxm » Thu Aug 08, 2019 10:59 am

Phaded wrote: Thu Aug 08, 2019 8:12 am The emergence of Hilliard likely made him expendable.
Ding, ding, ding
I am just a guy sharing some thoughts

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Re: Duke Johnson

Postby Mephistopheles » Thu Aug 08, 2019 11:08 am

khaos337 wrote: Thu Aug 08, 2019 9:31 am
Mephistopheles wrote: Thu Aug 08, 2019 9:25 am Cue the awful trade offers offering Duke in 3....2.....1....
Yeah, I was already offered Alfred Blue (I own Fournette) and a 5th (47th pick) for Duke :wall:

Just got my first offer to sell my 2020 1st (rebuild team so likely early to mid) for Duke.
Different league someone else wants to give me Duke for Evan Engram and I get to pay a 2020 2nd for the privilege. Because "a TE in a crap offense is less valuable than a starting RB in a top 5 offense"
PSA - Haggling is NOT the same as negotiating.

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Re: Duke Johnson

Postby djeternal2 » Thu Aug 08, 2019 11:12 am

Mjvb5 wrote: Thu Aug 08, 2019 10:52 am
djeternal2 wrote: Thu Aug 08, 2019 10:50 am
Mjvb5 wrote: Thu Aug 08, 2019 10:45 am Duke-value up obviously
Miller- down some in standard a lot in ppr
Any other backups-RIP whatever sell window there was
Keke-down a little
Fuller-down a little
Warring/Thomas-down a lot

If there giving up a third rounder for duke there’s no way around the fact that they plan on using him quite a bit. For reference here’s the rbs drafted that round this year, montgomery, henderson, singletary, Harris and mattison. Plus hill and love in the fourth. That’s some major draft capital to give up for an rb, especially one on a new deal. That to me points signs that they plan on using him more as a wr than an Rb which is great for fantasy
And don't forget the Texans have to know that next year is a loaded draft class so it really is like they traded a 2nd for Duke.
I can’t tell if this is sarcasm or not
While this year might’ve been bad at the top for fantasy. People need to realize this was actually a phenomenal year for actual teams
Sure no rbs.... too bad that’s the least valuable nfl position
Amazing OL class, which we don’t pay attention to but amazing for so many nfl teams
Interior players same thing
DBs same thing
The positions that we care about are almost inversely related to what actual teams value so while this was bad for us it was great for them
1000% sarcasm. The hype on the 2020 class is insane on these boards. We haven't even gotten to the 19 season let alone know who all is coming out yet.
10 tm ppr 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 2 Flex, TE, K, TDEF (Yr 6)
QB - Ryan, Wentz
RB - Gurley, A Jones, Cohen, Kerryon, Dam Williams, Duke, I Smith, Armstead, T Carson
WR - AJG, Watkins, ARob, A. Cooper, K Allen, M Williams, Godwin, Callaway, JJAW
TE - Gesicki, I Smith, Herndon, Eifert, Sternberger, Dissly

10 tm TE prem 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex, K, 2 DB, 2 DL, 2 LB (Yr 5)
QB - Mahomes, Mayfield, Wentz,
RB - Zeke, Chubb, Kerryon, Duke, Edmonds, B Hill
WR - Nuk, AJG, ARob, JJS, Samuel, MVS, T Smith, D Hamilton, Gallup, K Johnson
TE - Njoku, Eifert, Herndon, I Smith, I Thomas, Moreau
DL - Watt, K Clark, Q Williams
LB - D Jones, D Bush
DB - K Neal, Bell

DLF Early Birds - 16 tm SF (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 2 Flex, 1 SF
QB - A Rodgers, Darnold, Rosen, M Rudolph, Luck
RB - Damian Williams, J Howard, Duke, AP, Gore
WR - Julio, Golladay, Kirk, Stills, Manny Sanders, N Harry
TE - Jarwin, Gesicki, Boyle, Sprinkle

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Re: Duke Johnson

Postby Jason3123 » Thu Aug 08, 2019 11:14 am

I think this might be good long-term, but call me skeptical on being traded a month before the season as a good thing. He won't get carries over Lamar, or probably even the real backup RB, and he's kind of redundant to Keke. As usual Duke will not be a good weekly play and will most likely ride your bench. Or help you to a 4-9 season.

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Re: Duke Johnson

Postby Mjvb5 » Thu Aug 08, 2019 11:22 am

djeternal2 wrote: Thu Aug 08, 2019 11:12 am
Mjvb5 wrote: Thu Aug 08, 2019 10:52 am
djeternal2 wrote: Thu Aug 08, 2019 10:50 am

And don't forget the Texans have to know that next year is a loaded draft class so it really is like they traded a 2nd for Duke.
I can’t tell if this is sarcasm or not
While this year might’ve been bad at the top for fantasy. People need to realize this was actually a phenomenal year for actual teams
Sure no rbs.... too bad that’s the least valuable nfl position
Amazing OL class, which we don’t pay attention to but amazing for so many nfl teams
Interior players same thing
DBs same thing
The positions that we care about are almost inversely related to what actual teams value so while this was bad for us it was great for them
1000% sarcasm. The hype on the 2020 class is insane on these boards. We haven't even gotten to the 19 season let alone know who all is coming out yet.
Okay my bad on that and as you can.. clearly tell. I’m 100% with you on that front. The value on these picks makes no sense to me

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Re: Duke Johnson

Postby smallxl » Thu Aug 08, 2019 11:24 am

DynastyDabbler wrote: Thu Aug 08, 2019 7:54 am As a Duke owner I am very pleased. I really wanted things to work in Cleveland for him pre-Hunt but I'm glad he got out and landed in a good location.
Me too - traded Ertz last year for OJ Howard and the Duke in a semi-rebuild and could not be smiling brighter right now

have always loved his talent
22-man, 12-team, 1 pt-PPR; Start 1-2RB; 3-4 WR; 1-2 TE

TEAM 1
QB: Prescott, Foles
RB: Barkley, P Barber, Duke, Gio Bernard, Gus, C Thompson, Breida, Ekeler
WR: A Cooper, Cooks, Lockett, C. Davis, Crowder, Chark, Stills
TE: OJ Howard

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Re: Duke Johnson

Postby Lord_Varys » Thu Aug 08, 2019 11:47 am

Phaded wrote: Thu Aug 08, 2019 8:12 am This is a better real life move than fantasy for the Texans/Duke.
This also is great for Chubb to start the year.

The emergence of Hilliard likely made him expendable.
Wise of Duke to incur a "hamstring injury" so that Hilliard could emerge in camp.

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Re: Duke Johnson

Postby pvillebiker » Thu Aug 08, 2019 11:56 am

betting Duke's hammy is suddenly better too

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Re: Duke Johnson

Postby ColdZealDonkeyStrike » Thu Aug 08, 2019 12:27 pm

pvillebiker wrote: Thu Aug 08, 2019 11:56 am betting Duke's hammy is suddenly better too
Yep!
I assume he's got to pass a physical for the trade to go through. I guess we'll find out real quick.
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