Henry Ruggs is Much More Than Speed

[zeeshan2]

Raiders rookie WR Henry Ruggs III working to get route running up to speed 'this isn't college'


https://raiderswire.usatoday.com/2020/1 ... t-college/

[Jigga94]

If they gave Ruggs more touches, and actual playing time, the game would have been a blow-out for the Chiefs, instead of a shootout, if Ruggs had performed consistently with his awful performance this year.

That really doesn't make sense, but alright?

Ruggs, at least this year in his rookie season, is a terrible football player. If he plays significant offensive snaps, his team will be negatively impacted. I'm not sure what your missing here.

You might want to tell Vegas to stop playing him so much then. Last 4 games Ruggs and Agholor are both averaging around 50 snaps a game. Renfrow around 30. Zay Jones and Edwards at 10 each about.

So I guess you should be saying they need to take Ruggs off the field? In favor of??? I'm sure defenses have to take his speed into account on the field. I also assume he's a way better outside threat than Renfrow.

I mean no debate Ruggs hasn't been good this year. But again, he's a rookie. Selling him now isn't smart imo if his value has already tanked as far as you say.

[Cameron Giles]

If they gave Ruggs more touches, and actual playing time, the game would have been a blow-out for the Chiefs, instead of a shootout, if Ruggs had performed consistently with his awful performance this year.

That really doesn't make sense, but alright?

Ruggs, at least this year in his rookie season, is a terrible football player. If he plays significant offensive snaps, his team will be negatively impacted. I'm not sure what your missing here.

Yes, Ruggs can run fast, but he currently can not play NFL football. When I have a moment, I'll lay out his actual performance to date on a per target basis (FYI, it's ugly).

I offered Ruggs for Akers to the Raiders fan in my league, was refected. I should have set my sights a lot lower, bc Ruggs value is tanking.

Ruggs is not playing well right now. That much is clear. He's not on the same page as Carr right now, but he is still playing significant snaps. 68% since returning from injury. Oakland is 4-2 during that stretch.

I'll just keep repeating this. This is about a long-term play. Even though I didn't expect struggles like this his rookie season, I didn't promote a blow-up rookie year either. People have to give this time. I disagree strongly that "he can't play NFL football." Feels like you want to close the book on his career as early as possible.

[mgscott]

That really doesn't make sense, but alright?

Ruggs, at least this year in his rookie season, is a terrible football player. If he plays significant offensive snaps, his team will be negatively impacted. I'm not sure what your missing here.

You might want to tell Vegas to stop playing him so much then. Last 4 games Ruggs and Agholor are both averaging around 50 snaps a game. Renfrow around 30. Zay Jones and Edwards at 10 each about.

So I guess you should be saying they need to take Ruggs off the field? In favor of??? I'm sure defenses have to take his speed into account on the field. I also assume he's a way better outside threat than Renfrow.

I mean no debate Ruggs hasn't been good this year. But again, he's a rookie. Selling him now isn't smart imo if his value has already tanked as far as you say.

I agree now is the worst time to sell. He is playing nearly all the snaps, just mostly as a decoy with 1-2 manufactured touches a game. Teams have to respect his speed, so it does open this up for other players. I don't have him anywhere, but I would hold for now and see how he develops.

[remedy29]

I was surprised he played that many snaps this past week, it sure didn't look like it.

It has been mentioned in this thread, that Ruggs has already shown that he is "much more than speed". Where, I am not sure;

Ruggs is 4 for 12 on deep targets for 45, 46, 72 & 21 yards. All 1st downs with 1 TD.
Ruggs is 10 of 14 on short passes with 1 going for over 10 yards (29 yards). 2 of these 14 short pass targets produced a 1st down.

So his play to date suggest that Ruggs is nothing more than speed, let alone "much more". His usage of late also suggest his only value is in clear our routes. Sure he has run the ball a few times, but his NFL or fantasy success will not come by being force fed the ball on end arounds.

But he does have that 1 play that showed talent beyond just being a deep threat... I hope he is not a bust, I own him and picked him late 1st, against my better judgement, so I am looking for a glimmer of hope.

[Pullo Vision]

Thought of this thread.

https://www.pff.com/news/fantasy-footba ... -jefferson

A common refrain for dynasty players was that Ruggs wasn’t just a deep threat and that Carr’s propensity to take high-percentage, short-yardage throws could actually be a benefit to the rookie. Jon Gruden must not have watched enough film on Ruggs because he is currently using him almost exclusively as a downfield burner. His most common routes are at the NFL level have been go and out routes, with corner and crossing routes tied for third. Two of his most commons routes attack the deepest part of the field, and his average depth of target is 18.7 yards as a result. Carr’s average depth of target, meanwhile, is 7.7 yards downfield.

[Space Cowboy]

Game winning TD!

...........after he let a pass go through his hands for a soft INT and a bad fumble on a simple punch out.

Sky is the limit for him but he no doubt has been one of the worst rookie WRs.

[joeya2001]

Game winning TD!

...........after he let a pass go through his hands for a soft INT and a bad fumble on a simple punch out.

Sky is the limit for him but he no doubt has been one of the worst rookie WRs.

If only every defense were the JETS!

[Pullo Vision]

Stumbled across Edwards being listed as a buy low. As a part of the reasoning, they said the Raiders won't be using Ruggs in a way that’ll set him up for success, if they maintain his 2020 usage.

[Nanananananana]

No production in college, no production in his first year in the NFL.

He’s fast and can dunk, the WR thing is not going to happen.

[halfbaked88]

I moved him for the 2.04 in a 16-team. He's revealed who he is.

Henry Ruggs embodies the fantasy vs. real-life football argument. The raiders drafted him to be a field stretcher. He opens up the field for Waller, play-action, the run game and other receivers... he himself will never command an alpha role in this offense. He himself will never live up to 1st round potential.

As an NFL player - he is worth much more to his real life football team than what he's worth in fantasy. Having that explosive burner does A LOT for an offense. The problem is his real value to an NFL team can be statless at times. That's why I have zero confidence in him from a fantasy perspective.

[Cameron Giles]

No production in college, no production in his first year in the NFL.

He’s fast and can dunk, the WR thing is not going to happen.

It's not that cut and dry, and the college production argument is irrelevant given the talent he played with.

Ruggs didn't have a great rookie season, but it would be weird to write him off completely.

[OhCruelestRanter]

No production in college, no production in his first year in the NFL.

He’s fast and can dunk, the WR thing is not going to happen.

It's not that cut and dry, and the college production argument is irrelevant given the talent he played with.

Ruggs didn't have a great rookie season, but it would be weird to write him off completely.

His collegiate production is not irrelevant, but the context of who he played with was/is important. Just like his draft capital was important.

This is a good example of why I don’t spend my time doing intricate film breakdown. Go back and read Cameron Giles’ OP. It’s outstanding. The level of detail, the way everything is explained, it’s one of the most thoughtful examples of film analysis I’ve ever seen here. I complimented it when he first wrote it too. It’s genuinely good work and I appreciate that he did it.

But it was useless, and that’s the problem. You have no idea exactly how accurate some dude’s film analysis (even great film analysis- and this was great!) really is. You have no idea if a favorable opinion of somebody’s tape correlates with fantasy success at all unless you’re doing it for every player, assigning them a ranking or value, and then charting your outcomes vs fantasy points or yards or whatever you decide you’re trying to measure.

[ThunderTung]

No production in college, no production in his first year in the NFL.

He’s fast and can dunk, the WR thing is not going to happen.

It's not that cut and dry, and the college production argument is irrelevant given the talent he played with.

Ruggs didn't have a great rookie season, but it would be weird to write him off completely.

His collegiate production is not irrelevant, but the context of who he played with was/is important. Just like his draft capital was important.

This is a good example of why I don’t spend my time doing intricate film breakdown. Go back and read Cameron Giles’ OP. It’s outstanding. The level of detail, the way everything is explained, it’s one of the most thoughtful examples of film analysis I’ve ever seen here. I complimented it when he first wrote it too. It’s genuinely good work and I appreciate that he did it.

But it was useless, and that’s the problem. You have no idea exactly how accurate some dude’s film analysis (even great film analysis- and this was great!) really is. You have no idea if a favorable opinion of somebody’s tape correlates with fantasy success at all unless you’re doing it for every player, assigning them a ranking or value, and then charting your outcomes vs fantasy points or yards or whatever you decide you’re trying to measure.

Thats kind of why nobody has figured out how to draft well on a consistent basis. Most of the players getting drafted in the first round are talented enough to play in the league, but talent isn't the only factor.

[Cameron Giles]

His collegiate production is not irrelevant, but the context of who he played with was/is important. Just like his draft capital was important.

This is a good example of why I don’t spend my time doing intricate film breakdown. Go back and read Cameron Giles’ OP. It’s outstanding. The level of detail, the way everything is explained, it’s one of the most thoughtful examples of film analysis I’ve ever seen here. I complimented it when he first wrote it too. It’s genuinely good work and I appreciate that he did it.

But it was useless, and that’s the problem. You have no idea exactly how accurate some dude’s film analysis (even great film analysis- and this was great!) really is. You have no idea if a favorable opinion of somebody’s tape correlates with fantasy success at all unless you’re doing it for every player, assigning them a ranking or value, and then charting your outcomes vs fantasy points or yards or whatever you decide you’re trying to measure.

First, thank you.

This wasn't just a film breakdown though; I mixed statistics in with it that helped show the coverages he faced, the route tree he ran, and compared that to the route trees of successful WRs in the NFL. It's only without things like dominator, breakout, and the popular fantasy metrics people crave because of the diluted production...which is why people were skeptical.

You're correct though. I can't guarantee any WR I do a breakdown on will have fantasy success. All I can do is create practical and objective analysis. My thought process was the same with Michael Thomas as it was with Isaiah Ford, who I completely bombed on. Hell, I may bomb on Ruggs too, but I think it's way too early for people to be throwing in the towel on his career.

This is still useful though, because I think some make too many strong opinions on here of players who they've never actually watched outside of a 2 minute YouTube mix. So, things like this help in ending narratives that develop from people who aren't even doing the bare minimum on analysis.

We've gone back and forth on this before and I still maintan that a healthy balance of film analysis and analytics gives you the best opinion of a player. I'll never go too far in either direction.