Henry Ruggs is Much More Than Speed

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Re: Henry Ruggs is Much More Than Speed

Postby Ice » Thu Sep 16, 2021 6:57 am

Amazing REVISIONIST History.

Another News Flash......Ruggs was a premiere NFL prospect. He did go 12th and while the order of the first round NFL selections was questionable at WR, virtually no scouts had Ruggs falling out of the 1st round in the NFL Draft.

BTW you were the one who mentioned developmental players and asked the question when it is obvious to all or should be that every NFL player is a developmental player.

In fact I think you called it strange and even used 3 question marks.

I get you think Ruggs is a bust and that is okay but mentioning Average Draft Position is silly and has zero to with the development of actual NFL players. Of course his start up fantasy draft position took a hit, he didn't have a good rookie year.

Corey Davis as another example didn't just learn how to play the game this off season and he was drafted 5th overall. People have been calling him a massive bust for years and he balled out good enough last year that he was awarded a nice contract to be the Jets #1 WR this year. After week 1 he is a top 5 fantasy WR and certainly looks the part of a WR1 on his team.
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Re: Henry Ruggs is Much More Than Speed

Postby CubfanAA » Thu Sep 16, 2021 7:27 am

Ice wrote: Thu Sep 16, 2021 6:57 am Amazing REVISIONIST History.

Another News Flash......Ruggs was a premiere NFL prospect. He did go 12th and while the order of the first round NFL selections was questionable at WR, virtually no scouts had Ruggs falling out of the 1st round in the NFL Draft.

BTW you were the one who mentioned developmental players and asked the question when it is obvious to all or should be that every NFL player is a developmental player.

In fact I think you called it strange and even used 3 question marks.

I get you think Ruggs is a bust and that is okay but mentioning Average Draft Position is silly and has zero to with the development of actual NFL players. Of course his start up fantasy draft position took a hit, he didn't have a good rookie year.

Corey Davis as another example didn't just learn how to play the game this off season and he was drafted 5th overall. People have been calling him a massive bust for years and he balled out good enough last year that he was awarded a nice contract to be the Jets #1 WR this year. After week 1 he is a top 5 fantasy WR and certainly looks the part of a WR1 on his team.
I do find it strange how fast it seemed to go from everybody pretty much accepting that year 3 was when WR's would breakout and getting decent production as a rookie WR made everybody happy to now-a-days having a 22 year old WR who got 452 yards in 13 games (good for 9th among rookies last year) being considered a completely terrible bust. I'm not saying he is going to be an elite WR or even that he won't be a complete bust, but he's still one of the fastest receivers in the NFL and the things he's lacking in are things that can be learned (route running) or will happen naturally with some effort as he ages (strength). If he puts in the effort to improve, he will more than pay off for those that buy low now. If he gets hurt or lazy, he might be out of the NFL in 2 years...at this point it's luck on which result happens for his fantasy owners.

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Re: Henry Ruggs is Much More Than Speed

Postby Cameron Giles » Thu Sep 16, 2021 7:49 am

remedy29 wrote: Thu Sep 16, 2021 5:49 am
Ice wrote: Thu Sep 16, 2021 3:31 am
remedy29 wrote: Wed Sep 15, 2021 8:38 pm

I find it very odd that an NFL team would draft a developmental player with the 12th pick in the draft. I thought developmental players were drafted in the 4th to 7th round??? Very strange. What is the ultimate pay off, a 3,000 yard season?

I find it extremely strange that people make excuses for Ruggs and blame the coaching staff. I mean, why wouldn't Gruden want to get the ball into the hands of a god awful WR? If Ruggs had any football skill, they would get him the ball more often, but he is simply a track guy that really doesn't belong on a football field.
News Flash. Every Player selected in the NFL Draft is a developmental player.

No one is making excuses for Ruggs any more than the haters that want to throw him out with yesterday's garbage because he had a bad rookie campaign as a 21 year old kid.

Here is a sample of pro bowl players drafted in the 1st round from the last 4 NFL drafts to drive the developmental point home.

Pro Bowl players made:

2017 12 players
2018 11 players
2019 5 players
2020 2 players

Of those 30 pro Bowl players from the last 4 classes looked at, the only WR that made a Pro Bowl is Jefferson. In those 4 classes there were 13 WR's selected in round 1.

I get people make calls early all the time on players and who knows the Ruggs haters may be right but let's not act like WR's selected early mean they are not developmental players.

WR's TAKE TIME.

(I took the data from NFL draft data posted on Wikipeda 20..NFL Draft)
This is a poor comparison, not sure why you wasted your time comparing rookie pro bowl players.

The top half of the NFL draft are typically the only premier prospects, 1st round grade prospects. You don't waste a premier draft pick on a player that can only run deep. Your much better off finding that type of player later in the draft, round 3 or so. There are plenty of fast WRs drafted that can do what Ruggs does.
Same reason many argue not to draft a RB high in the draft.

It also has nothing to do with the Ruggs haters (their everywhere!). His ADP is like 60th WR and nobody can trade him for anything. In fact, the only people holding out any hope for him are the dopes who drafted him, like me, because he has no trade value. I couldn't even get the two Raiders fans in my league to be remotely interested in him.
Read the OP.

It's not factual that all Ruggs did in college "was run deep." He actually ran a very diverse route tree.

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Re: Henry Ruggs is Much More Than Speed

Postby Anteaters » Thu Sep 16, 2021 8:44 am

Ice wrote: Thu Sep 16, 2021 3:31 am Here is a sample of pro bowl players drafted in the 1st round from the last 4 NFL drafts to drive the developmental point home.

Pro Bowl players made:

2017 12 players
2018 11 players
2019 5 players
2020 2 players

Of those 30 pro Bowl players from the last 4 classes looked at, the only WR that made a Pro Bowl is Jefferson. In those 4 classes there were 13 WR's selected in round 1.

I get people make calls early all the time on players and who knows the Ruggs haters may be right but let's not act like WR's selected early mean they are not developmental players.

WR's TAKE TIME.

(I took the data from NFL draft data posted on Wikipeda 20..NFL Draft)
Great research! Very informative and gives me something new to add to the process list. Thanks for that.
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Re: Henry Ruggs is Much More Than Speed

Postby StripesOfKC » Thu Sep 16, 2021 9:03 am

Unproductive player in college becomes unproductive bad player in the NFL

This stuff isn't hard

Tyler Lockett and Corey Davis were absolute ballers in college--dominating their team's offenses

They were single handedly carrying the K State passing game his last season. They also didn't faceplant (lost more than 10 slots of startup ADP) their rookie years let alone 40+

Ruggs was and remains someone who did nothing but run fast in a straight line a la Mecole Hardman or John Ross before getting some sucker franchise obsessed with speed instead of actual skill to take him

Saying this doesn't make me a hater. There just is no evidence in his production profile that Henry Ruggs is good at football

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Re: Henry Ruggs is Much More Than Speed

Postby FantasyFreak » Thu Sep 16, 2021 9:24 am

StripesOfKC wrote: Thu Sep 16, 2021 9:03 am Unproductive player in college becomes unproductive bad player in the NFL

This stuff isn't hard

Tyler Lockett and Corey Davis were absolute ballers in college--dominating their team's offenses

They were single handedly carrying the K State passing game his last season. They also didn't faceplant (lost more than 10 slots of startup ADP) their rookie years let alone 40+

Ruggs was and remains someone who did nothing but run fast in a straight line a la Mecole Hardman or John Ross before getting some sucker franchise obsessed with speed instead of actual skill to take him

Saying this doesn't make me a hater. There just is no evidence in his production profile that Henry Ruggs is good at football
Except he produced a lot more than Mecole Hardman did in college, including in the TD department. 740 plus yards yards in college back to back years with 18 receiving touchdowns in those 2 years is productive in my books, considering how much that team spread the ball around to 3 other first round WR's who were all taken in the top half of the NFL draft, and a running game that featured 2 first round RB's, and a day 2 RB over that time.

I don't care that you don't like Ruggs, but he and Hardman's college production are apples and oranges, especially since Ruggs did quite a bit more, in less games, might I add.
Last edited by FantasyFreak on Thu Sep 16, 2021 9:29 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Henry Ruggs is Much More Than Speed

Postby StripesOfKC » Thu Sep 16, 2021 9:28 am

FantasyFreak wrote: Thu Sep 16, 2021 9:24 am
StripesOfKC wrote: Thu Sep 16, 2021 9:03 am Unproductive player in college becomes unproductive bad player in the NFL

This stuff isn't hard

Tyler Lockett and Corey Davis were absolute ballers in college--dominating their team's offenses

They were single handedly carrying the K State passing game his last season. They also didn't faceplant (lost more than 10 slots of startup ADP) their rookie years let alone 40+

Ruggs was and remains someone who did nothing but run fast in a straight line a la Mecole Hardman or John Ross before getting some sucker franchise obsessed with speed instead of actual skill to take him

Saying this doesn't make me a hater. There just is no evidence in his production profile that Henry Ruggs is good at football
Except he produced a lot more than Mecole Hardman did in college, including in the TD department.
TDs are irrelevant, unsticky and unpredictable

Always have been

AJ Brown was not an above average TD producer in college while DJ Moore was. See what happened in the NFL

I'm referring to market share of receiving yards, target share, weighted dominator, etc--things that are consistent and show whether a player dominated their offense

Ruggs....did not

to say the least

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Re: Henry Ruggs is Much More Than Speed

Postby StripesOfKC » Thu Sep 16, 2021 9:32 am

FantasyFreak wrote: Thu Sep 16, 2021 9:24 am
StripesOfKC wrote: Thu Sep 16, 2021 9:03 am Unproductive player in college becomes unproductive bad player in the NFL

This stuff isn't hard

Tyler Lockett and Corey Davis were absolute ballers in college--dominating their team's offenses

They were single handedly carrying the K State passing game his last season. They also didn't faceplant (lost more than 10 slots of startup ADP) their rookie years let alone 40+

Ruggs was and remains someone who did nothing but run fast in a straight line a la Mecole Hardman or John Ross before getting some sucker franchise obsessed with speed instead of actual skill to take him

Saying this doesn't make me a hater. There just is no evidence in his production profile that Henry Ruggs is good at football
Except he produced a lot more than Mecole Hardman did in college, including in the TD department. 740 plus yards yards in college back to back years with 18 receiving touchdowns in those 2 years is productive in my books, considering how much that team spread the ball around to 3 other first round WR's who were all taken in the top half of the NFL draft, and a running game that featured 2 first round RB's, and a day 2 RB over that time.

I don't care that you don't like Ruggs, but he and Hardman's college production are apples and oranges, especially since Ruggs did quite a bit more, in less games, might I add.
Touchdowns are not reliable production

and if Damien Harris' 5.3% target share was blocking Ruggs from breaking out that should tell you everything you need to know about Ruggs

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Re: Henry Ruggs is Much More Than Speed

Postby FantasyFreak » Thu Sep 16, 2021 9:34 am

StripesOfKC wrote: Thu Sep 16, 2021 9:28 am
FantasyFreak wrote: Thu Sep 16, 2021 9:24 am
StripesOfKC wrote: Thu Sep 16, 2021 9:03 am Unproductive player in college becomes unproductive bad player in the NFL

This stuff isn't hard

Tyler Lockett and Corey Davis were absolute ballers in college--dominating their team's offenses

They were single handedly carrying the K State passing game his last season. They also didn't faceplant (lost more than 10 slots of startup ADP) their rookie years let alone 40+

Ruggs was and remains someone who did nothing but run fast in a straight line a la Mecole Hardman or John Ross before getting some sucker franchise obsessed with speed instead of actual skill to take him

Saying this doesn't make me a hater. There just is no evidence in his production profile that Henry Ruggs is good at football
Except he produced a lot more than Mecole Hardman did in college, including in the TD department.

TDs are irrelevant, unsticky and unpredictable


Always have been

AJ Brown was not an above average TD producer in college while DJ Moore was. See what happened in the NFL

I'm referring to market share of receiving yards, target share, weighted dominator, etc--things that are consistent and show whether a player dominated their offense

Ruggs....did not

to say the least
That's fine. I will say (this is FF, so it is irrelevant for those purposes), that the Raiders run game and pass game was more efficient last year with Ruggs on the field, than off. His presence, whether he sees the ball or not, changes the way D's have to play, sometimes. I am not ready to write Ruggs off, but I don't think he's a target hog, alpha WR type. I think he's a function in the overall offense, that may be more suited to real football than Fantasy.
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Re: Henry Ruggs is Much More Than Speed

Postby Ice » Thu Sep 16, 2021 9:55 am

StripesOfKC wrote: Thu Sep 16, 2021 9:03 am Unproductive player in college becomes unproductive bad player in the NFL

This stuff isn't hard

Tyler Lockett and Corey Davis were absolute ballers in college--dominating their team's offenses

They were single handedly carrying the K State passing game his last season. They also didn't faceplant (lost more than 10 slots of startup ADP) their rookie years let alone 40+

Ruggs was and remains someone who did nothing but run fast in a straight line a la Mecole Hardman or John Ross before getting some sucker franchise obsessed with speed instead of actual skill to take him

Saying this doesn't make me a hater. There just is no evidence in his production profile that Henry Ruggs is good at football
Stats can be viewed a lot of ways depending how you frame the stats.

Bama was full of studs. We can look at alignment of players, positions played, QB tendencies throwing to the right or left of formation and opponents.

We can also look at what a player actually does when targeted by his QB.

Ruggs last 127 targets resulted in 86 receptions 18 TD's and 1487 yards. Not sure how you profile that but NFL scouts, for virtually every team, will break down every catch and play he made in college and determine how he dominated in that window.

To put those numbers in perspective; DK Metcalf in 7 fewer games over his last 2 years he had 65 receptions, 12, TD's, and 1215 yards.

Hard to call either really dominate in college. While I get how you are looking at how a player dominates a specific team; The NFL looks way beyond this one stat even though it is a good tool to be used a point of reference.

We still use the words Mark Twain popularized today. "Lies, Damned Lies, & Statistics"

And Yes, we are both doing it! :biggrin:
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Re: Henry Ruggs is Much More Than Speed

Postby Cameron Giles » Thu Sep 16, 2021 10:24 am

StripesOfKC wrote: Thu Sep 16, 2021 9:03 am Unproductive player in college becomes unproductive bad player in the NFL

This stuff isn't hard

Tyler Lockett and Corey Davis were absolute ballers in college--dominating their team's offenses

They were single handedly carrying the K State passing game his last season. They also didn't faceplant (lost more than 10 slots of startup ADP) their rookie years let alone 40+

Ruggs was and remains someone who did nothing but run fast in a straight line a la Mecole Hardman or John Ross before getting some sucker franchise obsessed with speed instead of actual skill to take him

Saying this doesn't make me a hater. There just is no evidence in his production profile that Henry Ruggs is good at football
But again...

Ruggs did not run go routes all day in college. It wasn't even his most used route.

Image

And how do you suggest one dominate college when they spent their career playing with Calvin Ridley, Jerry Jeudy, Devonta Smith, and Jaylen Waddle? I love Lockett, but he played with nobody even remotely close to his level in college. Alabama is a diluted offense.

Ruggs criticism is fair, because he did not enter the league as polished as Jeudy or Lamb; I just wish people would stop using narratives that aren't true or ignoring that his production wasn't great because he played with the best WR group in college football history. All four of them went in the Top 15.

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Re: Henry Ruggs is Much More Than Speed

Postby Sriracha » Thu Sep 16, 2021 10:42 am

Cameron Giles wrote: Thu Sep 16, 2021 10:24 am
Ruggs criticism is fair, because he did not enter the league as polished as Jeudy or Lamb; I just wish people would stop using narratives that aren't true or ignoring that his production wasn't great because he played with the best WR group in college football history. All four of them went in the Top 15.
Speaking of narratives that aren't true...

Alabama did not have the best receiving core in college football history; They weren't even the best receiving core during Ruggs tenure there -- that honor goes to LSU.

It was a great receiving core, no doubt. But that's not an excuse to post a career high of 700 receiving yards. He was far below Jeudy/Devonta and below Waddle. There are a ton of JAG WRs that do that in similarly talented offenses.

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Re: Henry Ruggs is Much More Than Speed

Postby Cameron Giles » Thu Sep 16, 2021 11:45 am

Sriracha wrote: Thu Sep 16, 2021 10:42 am
Cameron Giles wrote: Thu Sep 16, 2021 10:24 am
Ruggs criticism is fair, because he did not enter the league as polished as Jeudy or Lamb; I just wish people would stop using narratives that aren't true or ignoring that his production wasn't great because he played with the best WR group in college football history. All four of them went in the Top 15.
Speaking of narratives that aren't true...

Alabama did not have the best receiving core in college football history; They weren't even the best receiving core during Ruggs tenure there -- that honor goes to LSU.

It was a great receiving core, no doubt. But that's not an excuse to post a career high of 700 receiving yards. He was far below Jeudy/Devonta and below Waddle. There are a ton of JAG WRs that do that in similarly talented offenses.
Name me another WR group where all four players went in the Top 15 of the draft. Chase, Jefferson, and Marshall is great, but not better.

Also, Waddle was WR4 in Ruggs junior season.

Here's what using the dominator argument in this context ignores: Alabama had a historical amount of riches at WR and they blew teams out regularly. Most of their games were done by the 3rd quarter and they let up on putting up numbers.

You can't ask why Ruggs didn't dominate and name-drop someone like Davis or Lockett who didn't play with anyone remotely comparable in college. Ditto for using it as a flaw for Waddle, who looked like he was going to explode once the targets cleared up with Jeudy and Ruggs gone.

There were valid reasons to be low on Ruggs, but these two in particular are easily and logically explained.
Last edited by Cameron Giles on Thu Sep 16, 2021 11:49 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Henry Ruggs is Much More Than Speed

Postby Sriracha » Thu Sep 16, 2021 11:49 am

Cameron Giles wrote: Thu Sep 16, 2021 11:45 am
Sriracha wrote: Thu Sep 16, 2021 10:42 am
Cameron Giles wrote: Thu Sep 16, 2021 10:24 am
Ruggs criticism is fair, because he did not enter the league as polished as Jeudy or Lamb; I just wish people would stop using narratives that aren't true or ignoring that his production wasn't great because he played with the best WR group in college football history. All four of them went in the Top 15.
Speaking of narratives that aren't true...

Alabama did not have the best receiving core in college football history; They weren't even the best receiving core during Ruggs tenure there -- that honor goes to LSU.

It was a great receiving core, no doubt. But that's not an excuse to post a career high of 700 receiving yards. He was far below Jeudy/Devonta and below Waddle. There are a ton of JAG WRs that do that in similarly talented offenses.
Name me another WR group where all four players went in the Top 15 of the draft. Chase, Jefferson, and Marshall is great, but not better.

Also, Waddle was WR4 in Ruggs junior season.

Here's what using the dominator argument in this context ignores: Alabama had a historical amount of riches at WR and they blew teams out regularly. Most of their games were done by the 3rd quarter and they let up on putting up numbers.

You can't ask why Ruggs didn't dominate and name-drop someone like Davis or Lockett who didn't play with anyone remotely comparable in college.
They might be in the running for most overrated WR core of all time.

As for if that's an excuse for Ruggs to suck in college? No, it isn't.

He played over Waddle and outproduced him by a whopping 70 receiving yards while running 60% more routes!

https://puu.sh/IbNB2/6bf8cc59e2.png

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Re: Henry Ruggs is Much More Than Speed

Postby Cameron Giles » Thu Sep 16, 2021 11:56 am

Sriracha wrote: Thu Sep 16, 2021 11:49 am
They might be in the running for most overrated WR core of all time.

As for if that's an excuse for Ruggs to suck in college? No, it isn't.

He "outproduced" Waddle by 70 receiving yards while running 60% more routes!

https://puu.sh/IbNB2/6bf8cc59e2.png
So you went from saying that Waddle was the WR3, to now saying that Ruggs was the WR3 since he ran significantly more routes. Ok. What % of those routes was he targeted on?

Everything keeps going back to the talent on the field. Jerry Jeudy was the best WR in college as a sophomore. DeVonta Smith won the Heisman. All of these guys were high-level WR recruits. Jaylen Waddle looked like the Heisman frontrunner when Jeudy and Ruggs left.

My only point is that you can't point at WRs who played with nobody in college and wonder why Ruggs didn't do what they did. Who did Lockett play with? Who did Corey Davis play with?

There's a huge difference. Ignoring it is intellectually dishonest, even if you feel Ruggs wouldn't have been great regardless. It's the same reason why Waddle's CD is awful and his breakout is 21.8.


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