Henry Ruggs is Much More Than Speed

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Re: Henry Ruggs is Much More Than Speed

Postby Sriracha » Thu Sep 16, 2021 11:59 am

Cameron Giles wrote: Thu Sep 16, 2021 11:56 am
Sriracha wrote: Thu Sep 16, 2021 11:49 am
They might be in the running for most overrated WR core of all time.

As for if that's an excuse for Ruggs to suck in college? No, it isn't.

He "outproduced" Waddle by 70 receiving yards while running 60% more routes!

https://puu.sh/IbNB2/6bf8cc59e2.png
So you went from saying that Waddle was the WR3, to now saying that Ruggs was the WR3 since he ran significantly more routes. Ok. What % of those routes was he targeted on?

Everything keeps going back to the talent on the field. Jerry Jeudy was the best WR in college as a sophomore. DeVonta Smith won the Heisman. All of these guys were high-level WR recruits. Jaylen Waddle looked like the Heisman frontrunner when Jeudy and Ruggs left.

My only point is that you can't point at WRs who played with nobody in college and wonder why Ruggs didn't do what they did. There's a huge difference. Ignoring it is intellectually dishonest, even if you feel Ruggs wouldn't have been great regardless.
I think you're responding to a different person.

My only contention in this debate is the poor attempt to excuse his abhorrent analytical profile because of his target competition.

You can play in a talented receiving room and still suck. That's exactly what Ruggs did in college. How his game translates and/or transforms to/in the NFL is anyone's guess, but I remain pessimistic.

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Re: Henry Ruggs is Much More Than Speed

Postby Cameron Giles » Thu Sep 16, 2021 12:05 pm

Sriracha wrote: Thu Sep 16, 2021 11:59 am
Cameron Giles wrote: Thu Sep 16, 2021 11:56 am
Sriracha wrote: Thu Sep 16, 2021 11:49 am
They might be in the running for most overrated WR core of all time.

As for if that's an excuse for Ruggs to suck in college? No, it isn't.

He "outproduced" Waddle by 70 receiving yards while running 60% more routes!

https://puu.sh/IbNB2/6bf8cc59e2.png
So you went from saying that Waddle was the WR3, to now saying that Ruggs was the WR3 since he ran significantly more routes. Ok. What % of those routes was he targeted on?

Everything keeps going back to the talent on the field. Jerry Jeudy was the best WR in college as a sophomore. DeVonta Smith won the Heisman. All of these guys were high-level WR recruits. Jaylen Waddle looked like the Heisman frontrunner when Jeudy and Ruggs left.

My only point is that you can't point at WRs who played with nobody in college and wonder why Ruggs didn't do what they did. There's a huge difference. Ignoring it is intellectually dishonest, even if you feel Ruggs wouldn't have been great regardless.
I think you're responding to a different person.

My only contention in this debate is the poor attempt to excuse his abhorrent analytical profile because of his target competition.

You can play in a talented receiving room, and still suck. That's exactly what Ruggs did in college. How his game translates and or transforms to the NFL is anyone's guess, but I've always been pessimistic about it.
Again, the same thing happened to Jaylen Waddle. All of them were talented enough to go to a big program and be the #1 WR. Even if you don't think he would have been good at that, they still all diluted each other's production by playing together. Jeudy was the best one and had a 36th percentile college dominator.

We can agree to disagree, but when you put that much talent together, someone is going to take a hit. It's impossible for everyone to dominate the metrics people want in that context.

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Re: Henry Ruggs is Much More Than Speed

Postby Sriracha » Thu Sep 16, 2021 12:11 pm

Cameron Giles wrote: Thu Sep 16, 2021 12:05 pm
Again, the same thing happened to Jaylen Waddle. All of them were talented enough to go to a big program and be the #1 WR. Even if you don't think he would have been good at that, they still all diluted each other's production by playing together. Jeudy was the best one and had a 36th percentile college dominator.

We can agree to disagree, but when you put that much talent together, someone is going to take a hit. It's impossible for everyone to dominate the metrics people want in that context.
Here's where I disagree.

Jaylen Waddle posted one of the best true freshman seasons in PFF's grading history.

Jaylen Waddle was an elite return man.

Jaylen Waddle was highly efficient with his opportunities (routes run).

Waddle was on his way to a true breakout his junior year before breaking his ankle.

While both had suppressed production due to playing in a talented receiving room, one of them has multiple factors (PFF grade, efficiency, dynamism in the return game) that point to them being good; While the other was not productive while being given opportunity and was inefficient with those opportunities.

I'm not simply shitting on Ruggs' profile because he had 700 receiving yards. From a data perspective, everything besides target competition was bad.

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Re: Henry Ruggs is Much More Than Speed

Postby Rondalebaby » Thu Sep 16, 2021 2:45 pm

Cameron Giles wrote: Thu Sep 16, 2021 10:24 am
StripesOfKC wrote: Thu Sep 16, 2021 9:03 am Unproductive player in college becomes unproductive bad player in the NFL

This stuff isn't hard

Tyler Lockett and Corey Davis were absolute ballers in college--dominating their team's offenses

They were single handedly carrying the K State passing game his last season. They also didn't faceplant (lost more than 10 slots of startup ADP) their rookie years let alone 40+

Ruggs was and remains someone who did nothing but run fast in a straight line a la Mecole Hardman or John Ross before getting some sucker franchise obsessed with speed instead of actual skill to take him

Saying this doesn't make me a hater. There just is no evidence in his production profile that Henry Ruggs is good at football
But again...

Ruggs did not run go routes all day in college. It wasn't even his most used route.

Image

And how do you suggest one dominate college when they spent their career playing with Calvin Ridley, Jerry Jeudy, Devonta Smith, and Jaylen Waddle? I love Lockett, but he played with nobody even remotely close to his level in college. Alabama is a diluted offense.

Ruggs criticism is fair, because he did not enter the league as polished as Jeudy or Lamb; I just wish people would stop using narratives that aren't true or ignoring that his production wasn't great because he played with the best WR group in college football history. All four of them went in the Top 15.
This is a great example of why film grinding route running in college is a waste of time.

Yes he had a diverse route tree and ran every route possible, but he didn’t produce with any of them so they must have sucked despite how many times your favourite film grinder throws around the termed “nuanced” lol

Production > all else for college wide receivers.

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Re: Henry Ruggs is Much More Than Speed

Postby FantasyFreak » Thu Sep 16, 2021 2:47 pm

Rondalebaby wrote: Thu Sep 16, 2021 2:45 pm
Cameron Giles wrote: Thu Sep 16, 2021 10:24 am
StripesOfKC wrote: Thu Sep 16, 2021 9:03 am Unproductive player in college becomes unproductive bad player in the NFL

This stuff isn't hard

Tyler Lockett and Corey Davis were absolute ballers in college--dominating their team's offenses

They were single handedly carrying the K State passing game his last season. They also didn't faceplant (lost more than 10 slots of startup ADP) their rookie years let alone 40+

Ruggs was and remains someone who did nothing but run fast in a straight line a la Mecole Hardman or John Ross before getting some sucker franchise obsessed with speed instead of actual skill to take him

Saying this doesn't make me a hater. There just is no evidence in his production profile that Henry Ruggs is good at football
But again...

Ruggs did not run go routes all day in college. It wasn't even his most used route.

Image

And how do you suggest one dominate college when they spent their career playing with Calvin Ridley, Jerry Jeudy, Devonta Smith, and Jaylen Waddle? I love Lockett, but he played with nobody even remotely close to his level in college. Alabama is a diluted offense.

Ruggs criticism is fair, because he did not enter the league as polished as Jeudy or Lamb; I just wish people would stop using narratives that aren't true or ignoring that his production wasn't great because he played with the best WR group in college football history. All four of them went in the Top 15.
This is a great example of why film grinding route running in college is a waste of time.

Yes he had a diverse route tree and ran every route possible, but he didn’t produce with any of them so they must have sucked despite how many times your favourite film grinder throws around the termed “nuanced” lol

Production > all else for college wide receivers.
"Film grinding"? It's simply a breakdown of routes run. You must listen to a lot of Matt Kelley, who is downright terrible at football analysis, and team building advice. Entertaining though, I'll give him that.
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Re: Henry Ruggs is Much More Than Speed

Postby FantasyFreak » Thu Sep 16, 2021 3:10 pm

Cameron Giles wrote: Thu Sep 16, 2021 12:05 pm
Sriracha wrote: Thu Sep 16, 2021 11:59 am
Cameron Giles wrote: Thu Sep 16, 2021 11:56 am

So you went from saying that Waddle was the WR3, to now saying that Ruggs was the WR3 since he ran significantly more routes. Ok. What % of those routes was he targeted on?

Everything keeps going back to the talent on the field. Jerry Jeudy was the best WR in college as a sophomore. DeVonta Smith won the Heisman. All of these guys were high-level WR recruits. Jaylen Waddle looked like the Heisman frontrunner when Jeudy and Ruggs left.

My only point is that you can't point at WRs who played with nobody in college and wonder why Ruggs didn't do what they did. There's a huge difference. Ignoring it is intellectually dishonest, even if you feel Ruggs wouldn't have been great regardless.
I think you're responding to a different person.

My only contention in this debate is the poor attempt to excuse his abhorrent analytical profile because of his target competition.

You can play in a talented receiving room, and still suck. That's exactly what Ruggs did in college. How his game translates and or transforms to the NFL is anyone's guess, but I've always been pessimistic about it.
Again, the same thing happened to Jaylen Waddle. All of them were talented enough to go to a big program and be the #1 WR. Even if you don't think he would have been good at that, they still all diluted each other's production by playing together. Jeudy was the best one and had a 36th percentile college dominator.

We can agree to disagree, but when you put that much talent together, someone is going to take a hit. It's impossible for everyone to dominate the metrics people want in that context.
Ruggs was actually open quite a few times Monday night. A long TD was in place early in the game. I think pressure by the Ravens D might have prevented it, and on Waller's TD, he was wide open on a shallow crosser that would have been a TD, just happened that Carr's first read he felt was good, so he went there. There are other plays too, but won't go on at length. He only had 2 catches, but it's not like he's never open. The question is will the ball start going to him more, when he is.
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Re: Henry Ruggs is Much More Than Speed

Postby Rondalebaby » Thu Sep 16, 2021 3:17 pm

I have no idea who Matt Kelley is lol does he have issues with Ruggs production profile as well?

Remove film grinding from the comment and the point still stands, it’s an example of why trying to quantify route running as a metric in some capacity doesn’t matter.

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Re: Henry Ruggs is Much More Than Speed

Postby FantasyFreak » Thu Sep 16, 2021 3:33 pm

Rondalebaby wrote: Thu Sep 16, 2021 3:17 pm I have no idea who Matt Kelley is lol does he have issues with Ruggs production profile as well?

Remove film grinding from the comment and the point still stands, it’s an example of why trying to quantify route running as a metric in some capacity doesn’t matter.
Cool. I've never heard the specific term "tape grinding" much outside of his podcast in terms of FF talk. Thought you might be a listener of his. He's the creator of Player Profiler, FWIW, which I think is a top notch site.
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Re: Henry Ruggs is Much More Than Speed

Postby Rondalebaby » Thu Sep 16, 2021 3:43 pm

FantasyFreak wrote: Thu Sep 16, 2021 3:33 pm
Rondalebaby wrote: Thu Sep 16, 2021 3:17 pm I have no idea who Matt Kelley is lol does he have issues with Ruggs production profile as well?

Remove film grinding from the comment and the point still stands, it’s an example of why trying to quantify route running as a metric in some capacity doesn’t matter.
Cool. I've never heard the specific term "tape grinding" much outside of his podcast in terms of FF talk. Thought you might be a listener of his. He's the creator of Player Profiler, FWIW, which I think is a top notch site.
All good, I think it’s more of a Twitter thing :ewink:

I actually use Player Profiler all the time for breakout ages etc - never knew who ran it :doh:

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Re: Henry Ruggs is Much More Than Speed

Postby Rondalebaby » Thu Sep 16, 2021 3:54 pm

Ice wrote: Thu Sep 16, 2021 3:31 am
remedy29 wrote: Wed Sep 15, 2021 8:38 pm
Ice wrote: Wed Sep 15, 2021 8:30 am

Very hard to fight the narrative on Ruggs. People simply want a finished product 100% of the time out of college and when any player struggles they are discarded for the flavor of the day.

Ruggs should have easily had 100 yards receiving and may be developing faster than I thought. I figured 3 years personally and no way I would be trading him away cheap at this point. He is buy and stash play at this point.

FF players may want to look at a player like Tyler Lockett. He never had more than 57 receptions in a year his 1st 4 full years. The last 2 he had 82 and 100.

While there are no guarantees the development process does take time. He has put on muscle and looks to be in great shape. He can still fly and is bigger and faster than a player like Lockett. While he lacks all that experience; The door is open for this player.
I find it very odd that an NFL team would draft a developmental player with the 12th pick in the draft. I thought developmental players were drafted in the 4th to 7th round??? Very strange. What is the ultimate pay off, a 3,000 yard season?

I find it extremely strange that people make excuses for Ruggs and blame the coaching staff. I mean, why wouldn't Gruden want to get the ball into the hands of a god awful WR? If Ruggs had any football skill, they would get him the ball more often, but he is simply a track guy that really doesn't belong on a football field.
News Flash. Every Player selected in the NFL Draft is a developmental player.

No one is making excuses for Ruggs any more than the haters that want to throw him out with yesterday's garbage because he had a bad rookie campaign as a 21 year old kid.

Here is a sample of pro bowl players drafted in the 1st round from the last 4 NFL drafts to drive the developmental point home.

Pro Bowl players made:

2017 12 players
2018 11 players
2019 5 players
2020 2 players

Of those 30 pro Bowl players from the last 4 classes looked at, the only WR that made a Pro Bowl is Jefferson. In those 4 classes there were 13 WR's selected in round 1.

I get people make calls early all the time on players and who knows the Ruggs haters may be right but let's not act like WR's selected early mean they are not developmental players.

WR's TAKE TIME.

(I took the data from NFL draft data posted on Wikipeda 20..NFL Draft)
Counterpoint - every Pro Bowl wide receiver in those years mentioned had at least 1000 yards in their second NFL season except for Diggs (903 in 11 games), Godwin (843), Adams, Thielen and Doug Baldwin.

Diggs, Godwin and Adams all had 18 / 19 year old breakout ages with upper percentile dominators (and Diggs / Godwin marginally missed anyway).

Unless the prospect has an elite analytical profile you want them to hit by year 2 aka sell Ruggs lol

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Re: Henry Ruggs is Much More Than Speed

Postby Ice » Thu Sep 16, 2021 4:35 pm

Rondalebaby wrote: Thu Sep 16, 2021 3:54 pm
Ice wrote: Thu Sep 16, 2021 3:31 am
remedy29 wrote: Wed Sep 15, 2021 8:38 pm

I find it very odd that an NFL team would draft a developmental player with the 12th pick in the draft. I thought developmental players were drafted in the 4th to 7th round??? Very strange. What is the ultimate pay off, a 3,000 yard season?

I find it extremely strange that people make excuses for Ruggs and blame the coaching staff. I mean, why wouldn't Gruden want to get the ball into the hands of a god awful WR? If Ruggs had any football skill, they would get him the ball more often, but he is simply a track guy that really doesn't belong on a football field.
News Flash. Every Player selected in the NFL Draft is a developmental player.

No one is making excuses for Ruggs any more than the haters that want to throw him out with yesterday's garbage because he had a bad rookie campaign as a 21 year old kid.

Here is a sample of pro bowl players drafted in the 1st round from the last 4 NFL drafts to drive the developmental point home.

Pro Bowl players made:

2017 12 players
2018 11 players
2019 5 players
2020 2 players

Of those 30 pro Bowl players from the last 4 classes looked at, the only WR that made a Pro Bowl is Jefferson. In those 4 classes there were 13 WR's selected in round 1.

I get people make calls early all the time on players and who knows the Ruggs haters may be right but let's not act like WR's selected early mean they are not developmental players.

WR's TAKE TIME.

(I took the data from NFL draft data posted on Wikipeda 20..NFL Draft)
Counterpoint - every Pro Bowl wide receiver in those years mentioned had at least 1000 yards in their second NFL season except for Diggs (903 in 11 games), Godwin (843), Adams, Thielen and Doug Baldwin.

Diggs, Godwin and Adams all had 18 / 19 year old breakout ages with upper percentile dominators (and Diggs / Godwin marginally missed anyway).

Unless the prospect has an elite analytical profile you want them to hit by year 2 aka sell Ruggs lol
That is not a counter point at all. You just made the point that 5 WR's didn't even have a 1000 season in year 2 which further goes to the point that WR's get better with time as they develop.

32 players are selected in round so out of 128 players selected only 30 made it to elite status as measured by Pro Bowls and only 1 of those 128 was a Wr. It is true throughout positions that rookies are just that and need to be developed.

I expect more WR's to make it soon because they are developing into NFL stars which happens with experience and coaching.....aka TIME. The numbers show this which is reflective in why there are 12 since 2017 and only 2 since 2020.

I get you are trying to turn the conversation to your college dominator love and all but in reality players develop in this league and bust regardless of a college profile.

Bama had obvious studs at WR that went in round 1 and Ruggs produced big time with the targets he received which is why he was considered a near lock round 1 NFL prospect.

There is no question he needs to show improvement this year and stay healthy.
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Re: Henry Ruggs is Much More Than Speed

Postby Sriracha » Thu Sep 16, 2021 4:39 pm

Ice wrote: Thu Sep 16, 2021 4:35 pm Bama had obvious studs at WR that went in round 1 and Ruggs produced big time with the targets he received which is why he was considered a near lock round 1 NFL prospect.
He was a round 1 lock for the same reasons that Ted Ginn, Tavon Austin, John Ross, Breshad Perriman were...

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Re: Henry Ruggs is Much More Than Speed

Postby Rondalebaby » Thu Sep 16, 2021 5:38 pm

Ice wrote: Thu Sep 16, 2021 4:35 pm
Rondalebaby wrote: Thu Sep 16, 2021 3:54 pm
Ice wrote: Thu Sep 16, 2021 3:31 am

News Flash. Every Player selected in the NFL Draft is a developmental player.

No one is making excuses for Ruggs any more than the haters that want to throw him out with yesterday's garbage because he had a bad rookie campaign as a 21 year old kid.

Here is a sample of pro bowl players drafted in the 1st round from the last 4 NFL drafts to drive the developmental point home.

Pro Bowl players made:

2017 12 players
2018 11 players
2019 5 players
2020 2 players

Of those 30 pro Bowl players from the last 4 classes looked at, the only WR that made a Pro Bowl is Jefferson. In those 4 classes there were 13 WR's selected in round 1.

I get people make calls early all the time on players and who knows the Ruggs haters may be right but let's not act like WR's selected early mean they are not developmental players.

WR's TAKE TIME.

(I took the data from NFL draft data posted on Wikipeda 20..NFL Draft)
Counterpoint - every Pro Bowl wide receiver in those years mentioned had at least 1000 yards in their second NFL season except for Diggs (903 in 11 games), Godwin (843), Adams, Thielen and Doug Baldwin.

Diggs, Godwin and Adams all had 18 / 19 year old breakout ages with upper percentile dominators (and Diggs / Godwin marginally missed anyway).

Unless the prospect has an elite analytical profile you want them to hit by year 2 aka sell Ruggs lol
That is not a counter point at all. You just made the point that 5 WR's didn't even have a 1000 season in year 2 which further goes to the point that WR's get better with time as they develop.

32 players are selected in round so out of 128 players selected only 30 made it to elite status as measured by Pro Bowls and only 1 of those 128 was a Wr. It is true throughout positions that rookies are just that and need to be developed.

I expect more WR's to make it soon because they are developing into NFL stars which happens with experience and coaching.....aka TIME. The numbers show this which is reflective in why there are 12 since 2017 and only 2 since 2020.

I get you are trying to turn the conversation to your college dominator love and all but in reality players develop in this league and bust regardless of a college profile.

Bama had obvious studs at WR that went in round 1 and Ruggs produced big time with the targets he received which is why he was considered a near lock round 1 NFL prospect.

There is no question he needs to show improvement this year and stay healthy.
By my count 24 different receivers have made the Pro Bowl in the period you selected, 19 had 1000 yards in their second season (20 if we’re assuming Diggs can achieve 100 yards in the 5 games he missed).

That’s over 80%, not insignificant IMO.

If Ruggs doesn’t produce this year there’s really only 2 / 24 players with his profile in that time frame that have made a Pro Bowl, so I guess there is a chance :ewink:

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Re: Henry Ruggs is Much More Than Speed

Postby FantasyFreak » Thu Sep 16, 2021 5:51 pm

Rondalebaby wrote: Thu Sep 16, 2021 3:43 pm
FantasyFreak wrote: Thu Sep 16, 2021 3:33 pm
Rondalebaby wrote: Thu Sep 16, 2021 3:17 pm I have no idea who Matt Kelley is lol does he have issues with Ruggs production profile as well?

Remove film grinding from the comment and the point still stands, it’s an example of why trying to quantify route running as a metric in some capacity doesn’t matter.
Cool. I've never heard the specific term "tape grinding" much outside of his podcast in terms of FF talk. Thought you might be a listener of his. He's the creator of Player Profiler, FWIW, which I think is a top notch site.
All good, I think it’s more of a Twitter thing :ewink:

I actually use Player Profiler all the time for breakout ages etc - never knew who ran it :doh:
If you're into metrics for college WR's, he and Nate Liss's breakout finder is something you might be interested in.
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Re: Henry Ruggs is Much More Than Speed

Postby murphysxm » Thu Sep 16, 2021 8:18 pm

So I guess I am old school. I don’t rely on the analytics as much as I rely on production. Ruggs has not looked the part of an NFL WR. I don’t want to wait on him just in case.
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