Peer Review of DLF Mike's 2016-2019 RB Analysis

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SlimJim958
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Re: Peer Review of DLF Mike's 2016-2019 RB Analysis

Postby SlimJim958 » Mon Mar 30, 2020 2:33 pm

Johnny B. Goode wrote: Mon Mar 30, 2020 10:11 am
Farley wrote: Mon Mar 30, 2020 9:50 am
cantguardjake wrote: Mon Mar 30, 2020 9:40 am Cult of Dionysus harped on the Hollyfield ranking multiple times last year, it’s pretty obvious he doesn’t understand the process that Mike was trying to outline with his original report.

Mike also clarified multiple times with Montgomery what he meant about not making anyone miss, he outright said that he could make someone miss in the open field, but couldn’t at the line of scrimmage with a defender right beside him like Sanders could. This was a great take, Montgomery sucked last year and his “elite juke / jumpcut” cost him holes on multiple occasions (there is YouTube videos on this).

It’s like the people criticising see a singular ranking in stage 1 of a 3 stage report and define the entire report based on it and don’t even bother to read follow up discussion. No wonder there’s no original content on here, it’s crap like this that saw us lose part 1 of the report this year, which was a great read and much better than all of the other “this is my precombine rookie rankings - here’s a list of players” that will now all be updated post combine but no one bats an eye, but lets crucify Mikes take on Montgomery because it developed over time when he actually made some great points about him.

And as for everyone waxing lyrical about how his persona “makes his opinion untrustworthy” and “attacks his credibility”, it’s a fantasy football forum - lighten up lol, the colour is welcome.
Well said! :clap: Couldn't agree more.
+1
people need to stop compensating, loosen up, and just be better at this whole online forum thing

So what if Mike has some swag to him? I just take it as schtick. I'll be sarcastic like that from time to time. I'm not serious about it and rhats the exact opposite of how I am IRL. And if that is how Mike really is, who cares, lighten up people.
Finally, some reasonable folks up in this joint! Keep up the good work Mike. I wish we (or at least me and a few others) could have had the chance to read your phases this year like we did last year.

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Re: Peer Review of DLF Mike's 2016-2019 RB Analysis

Postby honcho55 » Mon Mar 30, 2020 3:19 pm

Mike, you say the criticism doesn’t bother you, why is it preventing you from posting part one of the process?

Plenty of people, myself included that’d like to see it still. Gonna get ripped but who cares.

Harmon was my WR2 Pre combine last year. We all miss, and we ALL miss early.
main league, half PPR, all TDs 6, -3 for INT
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start 2SF, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, 2WRT

QB: T Lawrence, K Cousins, R Wilson, Z Wilson
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WR: JJ, AJB, A Cooper, Juju, C Kirk, J Dotson, N Westbrook-Ikhine, I McKenzie
TE. T Kelce, Pitts, Albert O, D Parham, J O’Shaunessy

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Re: Peer Review of DLF Mike's 2016-2019 RB Analysis

Postby OhCruelestRanter » Mon Mar 30, 2020 3:24 pm

honcho55 wrote: Mon Mar 30, 2020 3:19 pm Mike, you say the criticism doesn’t bother you, why is it preventing you from posting part one of the process?

Plenty of people, myself included that’d like to see it still. Gonna get ripped but who cares.

Harmon was my WR2 Pre combine last year. We all miss, and we ALL miss early.
He’s more bothered by criticism than anybody I’ve interacted with here.
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Re: Peer Review of DLF Mike's 2016-2019 RB Analysis

Postby Zacsby » Mon Mar 30, 2020 4:39 pm

You included the claim about the nearly 100% hit rate in the DLF article as well. Doesn't really seem like some kind of gimmick to incite debate. In fact, somebody who doesn't frequent the forums might have went to that single linked thread and might have actually believed it. You really want people to recognize you as the RB guru or at least use that claim as a qualification. A claim which upon further review is simply unfounded. You've made plenty of good calls. And you've made plenty of bad calls to go along with them. Really nothing spectacular. Above average at best. And there's nothing wrong with that. Respectable even. You don't have to be RB Jesus, nobody is. I'm sure you know some things but I can't blindly trust that your take on this year's situation will be any different than the year you had KJ, Michel, Freeman and Ballage ahead of Chubb. That is what you imply when you make that claim however. Like the guy claiming to have a spreadsheet that will accurately predict WR hits. Or like the lady who calls Bingo after only 3 letters. Is it cute and funny or do you just shake your head? Depends on who you ask. Nothing wrong with a good hot take. Just don't try to flip it and spin it like WE are the ones who are crazy :lol: :thumbup:
12 Team SF IDP
QB - Mahomes, Lawrence, Mac
RB - Etienne, Walker, Rhamondre, Javonte, Akers, CEH
WR - AJB, Waddle, Higgins, Gabe, Toney
TE - Andrews, ISJ
DL - Quinnen, Highsmith, Josh Allen
LB - Lloyd, JOK, Gay, Bush
DB - Winfield, Love, Delpit

14 Team 1QB IDP
QB - Fields, Jimmy G
RB - Henry, Kamara, Swift, Herbert
WR - Adams, Juju, Jakobi, Theilen
TE - Hock, Everett
DL - Garrett, Buckner, Sweat
LB - White, David, Okereke, Jack
DB - Budda, CJGJ, Dugger, Byard

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Re: Peer Review of DLF Mike's 2016-2019 RB Analysis

Postby skinfanjon » Mon Mar 30, 2020 5:20 pm

Zacsby wrote: Mon Mar 30, 2020 4:39 pm You included the claim about the nearly 100% hit rate in the DLF article as well. Doesn't really seem like some kind of gimmick to incite debate. In fact, somebody who doesn't frequent the forums might have went to that single linked thread and might have actually believed it. You really want people to recognize you as the RB guru or at least use that claim as a qualification. A claim which upon further review is simply unfounded. You've made plenty of good calls. And you've made plenty of bad calls to go along with them. Really nothing spectacular. Above average at best. And there's nothing wrong with that. Respectable even. You don't have to be RB Jesus, nobody is. I'm sure you know some things but I can't blindly trust that your take on this year's situation will be any different than the year you had KJ, Michel, Freeman and Ballage ahead of Chubb. That is what you imply when you make that claim however. Like the guy claiming to have a spreadsheet that will accurately predict WR hits. Or like the lady who calls Bingo after only 3 letters. Is it cute and funny or do you just shake your head? Depends on who you ask. Nothing wrong with a good hot take. Just don't try to flip it and spin it like WE are the ones who are crazy :lol: :thumbup:
Great post. Misleading people who pay money for this is literally the lowest you can stoop.

What an absolute charlatan.

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Re: Peer Review of DLF Mike's 2016-2019 RB Analysis

Postby Blueboy » Mon Mar 30, 2020 5:30 pm

honcho55 wrote: Mon Mar 30, 2020 3:19 pm Plenty of people, myself included that’d like to see it still. Gonna get ripped but who cares.

Harmon was my WR2 Pre combine last year. We all miss, and we ALL miss early.
Agreed that I'll miss seeing the full process of Mike's report, but I'd prefer you never make me remember having paid up for Harmon in multiple devy leagues thank youverymuch.

12-team SF, PPR, TE premium, 0.25 PPCarry
1QB 2RB 2WR 1TE 1SF 4Flex
QB: Mahomes, Fields, Love
RB: Bijan, ETN, Pollard, Achane, Herbert
WR: Kupp, Hill, Metcalf, Ridley, Jeudy, D.J. M, Burks, Hollywood, Wan'Dale
TE: Kyle Pitts, Goedert

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Re: Peer Review of DLF Mike's 2016-2019 RB Analysis

Postby MEuRaH » Mon Mar 30, 2020 5:33 pm

skinfanjon wrote: Mon Mar 30, 2020 2:26 pm
dlf_mikeh wrote: Mon Mar 30, 2020 1:39 pmI'm a writer. Revealing content on the forums is not in my interest. It's the same reason I haven't mentioned a single other 2020 rookie RB. You can search my history. Not a 1. The only reason for the JT thread is because my article was about to post.
You mentioned Dobbins and Swift.
And I mentioned Cam Akers. Other than the 4 rookie RBs in my article I haven't mentioned anyone. The 4 RBs mentioned in the JT thread are the only ones I've discussed publicly.
honcho55 wrote: Mon Mar 30, 2020 3:19 pmMike, you say the criticism doesn’t bother you, why is it preventing you from posting part one of the process?
FAIR criticism doesn't bother me. That 3 piece series had a final report and that's the one I should be judged by, along with every other post on this forum I've ever written, but not parts 1 and 2. If I put out more of those series, that information will keep resurfacing and recycling.

I don't want to be judged on an unfinished product.
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Re: Peer Review of DLF Mike's 2016-2019 RB Analysis

Postby Johnny B. Goode » Mon Mar 30, 2020 5:35 pm

Mike great article. Thanks!!!

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Re: Peer Review of DLF Mike's 2016-2019 RB Analysis

Postby MEuRaH » Mon Mar 30, 2020 5:41 pm

Zacsby wrote: Mon Mar 30, 2020 4:39 pmYou included the claim about the nearly 100% hit rate in the DLF article as well.
Yeah that should have been removed. I copy/pasted the header from the 2019 write up, literally word for word, and was supposed to switch out the old link and put in the new ones from 2019. I didn't, the editor didn't know it wasn't supposed to be there, and now it's back up on the site for a 2nd time. The reason for the first time was because I was trying to make a name for myself. There's really no need for it to be there again.

When I saw it this morning I said "Oh crap. Maybe nobody will notice". So, thanks. :P
ULTIMATE RB GURUs
2021 RB Injury Guru: abloom "Akers will suffer an ACL injury in the preseason and does not play during the season."
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REAL RB GURUs:
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Re: Peer Review of DLF Mike's 2016-2019 RB Analysis

Postby pvillebiker » Mon Mar 30, 2020 5:47 pm

Why does this feel like a therapy session for all the angst'ers? Some real bitterness shining thru in summa' these posts. Sure review the record. Call him on misses, but does FF really mean that much? Maybe we're all wound a bit too tight in the covid apocalypse? I'll admit that Mike's style is over the top and has occasionally bugged me, but then I remember it's clearly intentionally provocative. Would any of us even know who he is or consider his RB takes if he wasn't so "out there"?

There is clearly value there if you get past the bravado. For every Ballage call there are probably a couple like Sanders, who I'll admit I never heard of last year until Mike's post. And he wasn't just early on him, he was way against the grain and pounded the table explaining why. I profited from that take. Betting a lot of folks here did also.

Point is - it's up to each of us how much stock we put in Mike's RB analysis. If you can't find value there, you're not looking hard enough. If you're off put, that's reasonable too. I just don't understand the depth of the bitterness towards one of our own, who would be the "RB king". LOL

peace,

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Re: Peer Review of DLF Mike's 2016-2019 RB Analysis

Postby Cult of Dionysus » Mon Mar 30, 2020 5:48 pm

cantguardjake wrote: Mon Mar 30, 2020 9:40 am Cult of Dionysus harped on the Hollyfield ranking multiple times last year, it’s pretty obvious he doesn’t understand the process that Mike was trying to outline with his original report.
dlf_mikeh wrote: Mon Mar 30, 2020 5:33 pmFAIR criticism doesn't bother me. That 3 piece series had a final report and that's the one I should be judged by, along with every other post on this forum I've ever written, but not parts 1 and 2. If I put out more of those series, that information will keep resurfacing and recycling.
Honestly, the 3-step thing is a deflection, a red herring. I read his three reports VERY closely. And I urge you to pay attention to what Mike said in the first report's cover message:
FROM MIKE'S 1st REPORT IN 2019:What I usually do is research RBs in late February. I judge them based on a series of criteria, each category weighted based on the importance level that I believe they deserve based on what it takes to succeed in the NFL. Then I ignore those rankings and do it again sometime in early April. I compare my values and see if I moved anyone up or down a lot in any 1 category (I rarely do) and then do one final analysis the week of the NFL draft when players start getting drafted. For example, it's incredibly important that a zone runner get drafted to a zone team. If they don't (*cough* Rashaad Penny *cough*) then I knock them down some points.
Now maybe I'm crazy, but I read that to say that he'd refine his values, not throw the values out entirely. Though I guess you don't have to take my word for it, just Mike's (see bold above).
cantguardjake wrote: Mon Mar 30, 2020 9:40 amMike also clarified multiple times with Montgomery what he meant about not making anyone miss, he outright said that he could make someone miss in the open field, but couldn’t at the line of scrimmage with a defender right beside him like Sanders could. This was a great take, Montgomery sucked last year and his “elite juke / jumpcut” cost him holes on multiple occasions (there is YouTube videos on this).
I've never seen any clarification by Mike on Montgomery. I may have missed it, but I'm on here a lot and I follow Montgomery closely as I'm a fan of his.

As for your assertion that Montgomery can't beat a guy at the line:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BxvdyJkEniY

FYI, SPOILER ALERT, you won't have to wait long in the video above to be proven wrong. :lol:
cantguardjake wrote: Mon Mar 30, 2020 9:40 amIt’s like the people criticising see a singular ranking in stage 1 of a 3 stage report and define the entire report based on it and don’t even bother to read follow up discussion. No wonder there’s no original content on here, it’s crap like this that saw us lose part 1 of the report this year, which was a great read and much better than all of the other “this is my precombine rookie rankings - here’s a list of players” that will now all be updated post combine but no one bats an eye, but lets crucify Mikes take on Montgomery because it developed over time when he actually made some great points about him.
Cuz you can't be a RB guru if you miss that badly on a basic element of RB analysis.

And I'm not defining the entire report on this one issue. I think the reports, in their totality, are excellent and I think Mike had some big hits (Devin Singletary and Miles Sanders in particular, before either guy was well-known or, in the case of Sanders, much touted). My issue is that he say's:
FROM MIKE's 1st REPORT: For those that don't know me, I am a former RB coach. I coached the position at the HS level for 5 years, and travelled all over New England to coaching clinics and conferences to learn from the top coaches at the college level, as well as a few former NFL scouts. I know what to look for and what makes a RB a possible top talent in the NFL. I've been nailing RB rankings over the last 3 years (literally, almost 100% percent accurate) and figured that I'd up the ante by creating my own thread, instead of replying to other posts like I used to do. FWIW, I suck at QB, TE, & WR rankings. Help a brother out.
I have no issues with anyone having confidence/hubris. But if you make fantastical claims and can't back it up, be prepared to have others pointing it out.

I'd also really really like to hear from Mike why he thought Montgomery can't sink his hips. He said it on three separate occasions in his 3 reports (on two occasions in the 1st report and on one occasion in the 3rd report). And I'd also like to know when and why he added the edit in the 3rd report that Montgomery "DOES sink his hips".
Last edited by Cult of Dionysus on Mon Mar 30, 2020 6:08 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Peer Review of DLF Mike's 2016-2019 RB Analysis

Postby Johnny B. Goode » Mon Mar 30, 2020 5:50 pm

pvillebiker wrote: Mon Mar 30, 2020 5:47 pm Why does this feel like a therapy session for all the angst'ers? Some real bitterness shining thru in summa' these posts. Sure review the record. Call him on misses, but does FF really mean that much? Maybe we're all wound a bit too tight in the covid apocalypse? I'll admit that Mike's style is over the top and has occasionally bugged me, but then I remember it's clearly intentionally provocative. Would any of us even know who he is or consider his RB takes if he wasn't so "out there"?

There is clearly value there if you get past the bravado. For every Ballage call there are probably a couple like Sanders, who I'll admit I never heard of last year until Mike's post. And he wasn't just early on him, he was way against the grain and pounded the table explaining why. I profited from that take. Betting a lot of folks here did also.

Point is - it's up to each of us how much stock we put in Mike's RB analysis. If you can't find value there, you're not looking hard enough. If you're off put, that's reasonable too. I just don't understand the depth of the bitterness towards one of our own, who would be the "RB king". LOL

peace,
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Re: Peer Review of DLF Mike's 2016-2019 RB Analysis

Postby themburns » Mon Mar 30, 2020 5:56 pm

I respect the hours that go into tape study. The hot takes even, are acceptable in some contexts. Where it is damaging is in the overreaching claims about accuracy.

Seeing as I and many others materially benefit from the groupthink about his scouting abilities, I'm not going to work too hard to dissuade others from it, but I think my view on the matter is well understood. If something sounds too good to be true, it usually is.

An understanding of rhetoric and basic statistical concepts should give curious minds the tools to make their own decisions.

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Re: Peer Review of DLF Mike's 2016-2019 RB Analysis

Postby themburns » Mon Mar 30, 2020 5:59 pm

dlf_mikeh wrote: Mon Mar 30, 2020 5:41 pm
Zacsby wrote: Mon Mar 30, 2020 4:39 pmYou included the claim about the nearly 100% hit rate in the DLF article as well.
The reason for the first time was because I was trying to make a name for myself.
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