What is the earliest you'd take a QB this year?

[Cameron Giles]

So much of this is going to depend on coaching/scheme/playcalling long-term.

Unfortunately, the Bengals are banking on Zac Taylor being that guy and the Dolphins are banking on...Chan Gailey.

[FantasyFreak]

For its purpose here, being a better FF QB is all that matters though. I don't think either are better FF QBs than Kyler (especially in terms of ceiling), and on top of that, I think Trevor Lawrence is both a better NFL prospect and better FF prospect than all 3 of those guys.

Burrow's rise reminds me of Vince Young's rise as a prospect. Before their final seasons they were considered round 3 or later developmental guys. They crush their final seasons, have a memorable championship run (VY in arguably the greatest natty game every and Burrow throwing for 12 TDs in his 2 playoff games), and just jump to the top of the draft and are suddenly franchise changing superstars waiting to happen. What Burrow did this season was amazing and can never be taken away from him, but I don't see this elite franchise changer. Tua is much tougher for me to evaluate, but that hip injury made me quit evaluating him entirely as I have no interest in investing the draft capital required to take him. Tua is going to become the poster child on how to evaluate hip injuries and what did/didn't work. Not interested in having that on my roster.

Fair. I'd still rather have either than Kyler to start a franchise. Both are better passers IMO, and can read defences better. Kyler is 3rd as a passer and being able to read Defences as college prospects. Kyler is the best runner, of course. Vince Young and Burrow may have risen the same way, but that's the only thing they share. Burrow is so much more advanced as a passer and a student of the game vs Young. Young was just athleticism.

In FF I'd rather have Kyler, only slightly, though, and in a few years that may change. I would not add anything substantial to Tua or Burrow to acquire Kyler. I think he's one of the most over rated players in Dynasty currently, being rated as an elite QB when he hasn't shown elite play.

Tua, from all medical accounts, is at no further risk to injure his hip again, and an independent doctor actually said it might be less likely he hurts it due to the added stability that was provided in the surgery. I'm willing to take the risk on him because he's such a great passer, and prospect. I don't consider the hip much of a risk, TBH. The risk is that he just seems to be injury prone, in general.

[bjd5211]

In FF I'd rather have Kyler, only slightly, though, and in a few years that may change. I would not add anything substantial to Tua or Burrow to acquire Kyler. I think he's one of the most over rated players in Dynasty currently, being rated as an elite QB when he hasn't shown elite play.

Because it's about getting him before he truly breaks out, as he is well positioned to do this year like many Sophomore QBs over the last few years. He may not have been "elite" compared to all the other QBs this year, but I would certainly consider him elite by rookie standards, he did finish in the top 10-12 in scoring at the position which would make him a QB1 in fantasy. I expect him to finish as a top 5 QB in fantasy this year, and it honestly wouldn't shock me if he ended up as #1, although Mahomes and Lamar are obviously the favorites for that crown.

[FantasyFreak]

In FF I'd rather have Kyler, only slightly, though, and in a few years that may change. I would not add anything substantial to Tua or Burrow to acquire Kyler. I think he's one of the most over rated players in Dynasty currently, being rated as an elite QB when he hasn't shown elite play.

Because it's about getting him before he truly breaks out, as he is well positioned to do this year like many Sophomore QBs over the last few years. He may not have been "elite" compared to all the other QBs this year, but I would certainly consider him elite by rookie standards, he did finish in the top 10-12 in scoring at the position which would make him a QB1 in fantasy. I expect him to finish as a top 5 QB in fantasy this year, and it honestly wouldn't shock me if he ended up as #1, although Mahomes and Lamar are obviously the favorites for that crown.

Sure, I just don't agree with it. Same thing was done with Baker, who had a better rookie year than Kyler. I think he's overated. I don't think he's even close to a guy like Mahomes on talent as a passer. I have him as my QB 7, so it's not like I don't think he's good. I'm just not willing to pay the price with the upside already baked in, and it is.

[cantguardjake]

I haven’t watched Burrow in detail yet so won’t comment on him but so far, not early.

Love and Herbert are terrible. Yes they both have big arms, but they make terrible decisions, stare down their first read and don’t step up in the pocket at all. Herbert also has terrible touch on his deep ball. If they get drafted early it will be as a “project” but I fully expect them to bust.

Tua is obviously better, but once again I think he has some flaws that many are over looking. He also doesn’t step up in the pocket as much as you’d like to see and often throws off the back foot, particularly when pressured. He also looks like he’s about to snap in half every time he scrambles, I don’t think those injuries are a coincidence - I cringe every time he takes off or is flushed from the pocket (and he is not athletic at all). He looks good when Bama has their quick hitting slant and screen game going when he can release the ball quickly and doesn’t need to step up to navigate some pressure, but I don’t think that’s gonna cut it at the next level. He has good ball placement but is going to need a friendly scheme to succeed I think.

[cantguardjake]

Tua and Kyler actually are similar comps IMO, except Kyler navigates the pocket a lot better and is a significantly better athlete. I’d actual say Tua is a poor mans Kyler (ie Kyler without the pocket presence and athletic ability). Would much rather Kyler and it’s not close.

[FantasyFreak]

Tua and Kyler actually are similar comps IMO, except Kyler navigates the pocket a lot better and is a significantly better athlete. I’d actual say Tua is a poor mans Kyler (ie Kyler without the pocket presence and athletic ability). Would much rather Kyler and it’s not close.

I don't think Kyler has good pocket presence. He's just more elusive. Coming out of college, Tua is better out of the pocket. So I disagree with that assessment. They are very similarly rated prospects, but even after the hip injury, Tua was ranked slightly higher as a prospect. As pure NFL prospects, based on professional scouting circles, for the most part. Kyler would be 3rd rated in this class. As an NFL team, I'd rather have Tua or Burrow. Kyler could still very well be the best Fantasy player, though, due to the value of rushing yards compared to passing yards in Fantasy.

To tie this back to the original question, Kyler was going late round 1 in last years class, however, the depth this year is far better, so in a 1 QB league, I think early 2nd is where I'd start thinking QB.

[cantguardjake]

Tua and Kyler actually are similar comps IMO, except Kyler navigates the pocket a lot better and is a significantly better athlete. I’d actual say Tua is a poor mans Kyler (ie Kyler without the pocket presence and athletic ability). Would much rather Kyler and it’s not close.

I don't think Kyler has good pocket presence. He's just more elusive. Coming out of college, Tua is better out of the pocket. So I disagree with that assessment. They are very similarly rated prospects, but even after the hip injury, Tua was ranked slightly higher as a prospect. As pure NFL prospects, based on professional scouting circles, for the most part. Kyler would be 3rd rated in this class. As an NFL team, I'd rather have Tua or Burrow. Kyler could still very well be the best Fantasy player, though, due to the value of rushing yards compared to passing yards in Fantasy.

To tie this back to the original question, Kyler was going late round 1 in last years class, however, the depth this year is far better, so in a 1 QB league, I think early 2nd is where I'd start thinking QB.

I guess we’ll have to agree to disagree

If there’s one thing I don’t listen to from both the talking heads and scouting departments it’s QB talk. They’ve proven over time that they bust just as much as they hit in the first round (I’m not going to list them all everyone is pretty familiar with them), so you’re just as well off trusting your own eye IMO (more so than any other position).

[Bot101]

I thought I heard on a podcast that Kyler was his own worst enemy on a lot of his sacks? Like he literally ran himself into a sack on quite a few of them.

[FantasyFreak]

Tua and Kyler actually are similar comps IMO, except Kyler navigates the pocket a lot better and is a significantly better athlete. I’d actual say Tua is a poor mans Kyler (ie Kyler without the pocket presence and athletic ability). Would much rather Kyler and it’s not close.

I don't think Kyler has good pocket presence. He's just more elusive. Coming out of college, Tua is better out of the pocket. So I disagree with that assessment. They are very similarly rated prospects, but even after the hip injury, Tua was ranked slightly higher as a prospect. As pure NFL prospects, based on professional scouting circles, for the most part. Kyler would be 3rd rated in this class. As an NFL team, I'd rather have Tua or Burrow. Kyler could still very well be the best Fantasy player, though, due to the value of rushing yards compared to passing yards in Fantasy.

To tie this back to the original question, Kyler was going late round 1 in last years class, however, the depth this year is far better, so in a 1 QB league, I think early 2nd is where I'd start thinking QB.

I guess we’ll have to agree to disagree

If there’s one thing I don’t listen to from both the talking heads and scouting departments it’s QB talk. They’ve proven over time that they bust just as much as they hit in the first round (I’m not going to list them all everyone is pretty familiar with them), so you’re just as well off trusting your own eye IMO (more so than any other position).

I'm only referencing the "talking heads" because it happens to coincide with my opinion. QB is the toughest position for anyone to evaluate, for sure. Agree to disagree.

[cantguardjake]

I thought I heard on a podcast that Kyler was his own worst enemy on a lot of his sacks? Like he literally ran himself into a sack on quite a few of them.

That could very well be the case, I’d be interested to see the stats. I just tried to find them then and found that, at week 10, Kyler actually avoided sacks at the highest rate of any QB in the league in that he evaded pressure 31.4% of the time - 10% higher then second place (which was Carr). Whether this is due to his ability to scramble or step up in the pocket I’m not sure, but it’s interesting.

He might be an enigma in that he avoids a lot of sacks and also causes a lot

[MrUbuto]

I thought I heard on a podcast that Kyler was his own worst enemy on a lot of his sacks? Like he literally ran himself into a sack on quite a few of them.

That could very well be the case, I’d be interested to see the stats. I just tried to find them then and found that, at week 10, Kyler actually avoided sacks at the highest rate of any QB in the league in that he evaded pressure 31.4% of the time - 10% higher then second place (which was Carr). Whether this is due to his ability to scramble or step up in the pocket I’m not sure, but it’s interesting.

He might be an enigma in that he avoids a lot of sacks and also causes a lot

The Jameis winston of sacks

[mild]

I thought I heard on a podcast that Kyler was his own worst enemy on a lot of his sacks? Like he literally ran himself into a sack on quite a few of them.

That could very well be the case, I’d be interested to see the stats. I just tried to find them then and found that, at week 10, Kyler actually avoided sacks at the highest rate of any QB in the league in that he evaded pressure 31.4% of the time - 10% higher then second place (which was Carr). Whether this is due to his ability to scramble or step up in the pocket I’m not sure, but it’s interesting.

He might be an enigma in that he avoids a lot of sacks and also causes a lot

The Jameis winston of sacks

To be fair to Kyler, he was working with a bottom-10 Offensive Line and some truly ghastly individual play within said line.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats ... -line/2019

Interesting that we'd split hairs on someone "having pocket presence" or "just being elusive". Regardless, give me the guy with 4.3 wheels who can turn a pocket evade into a 15 yard run at the drop of a hat, rather than the statue-style guy who can evade the rush for two seconds longer before he gets slaughtered as he stands-in to deliver a throw.

For both fantasy and longevity, I believe Kyler trumps Tua.

[jenkins.math]

Tua, from all medical accounts, is at no further risk to injure his hip again, and an independent doctor actually said it might be less likely he hurts it due to the added stability that was provided in the surgery. I'm willing to take the risk on him because he's such a great passer, and prospect. I don't consider the hip much of a risk, TBH. The risk is that he just seems to be injury prone, in general.

Any medical reports on Tua should be taken with a grain of salt and is the same stuff fed to the media about any prospect. Literally it's a copy a paste report on all serious injuries. Just change the name and injury.

If you think about it everyone involved in this should be pumping this up like "its all good, nothing to see here." Tua loses money if it gets out he isn't the same. The doctor that performed the surgery looks bad that he couldn't fully repair it. Bama looks bad for trotting him back out there at less than 100%. College football looks bad because they aren't paying those guys enough compared to the money they produce. Then finally the NFL looks bad for having a free minor league system all the while raking in the cash year after year.

Dennis Pitta is the most recent NFL player to have to deal with this, and he sat out almost a full 2 years, only to reinjure the hip after that. It's impossible for me to ignore the history and everyone's motives involved with the reports.

[FantasyFreak]

Tua, from all medical accounts, is at no further risk to injure his hip again, and an independent doctor actually said it might be less likely he hurts it due to the added stability that was provided in the surgery. I'm willing to take the risk on him because he's such a great passer, and prospect. I don't consider the hip much of a risk, TBH. The risk is that he just seems to be injury prone, in general.

Any medical reports on Tua should be taken with a grain of salt and is the same stuff fed to the media about any prospect. Literally it's a copy a paste report on all serious injuries. Just change the name and injury.

If you think about it everyone involved in this should be pumping this up like "its all good, nothing to see here." Tua loses money if it gets out he isn't the same. The doctor that performed the surgery looks bad that he couldn't fully repair it. Bama looks bad for trotting him back out there at less than 100%. College football looks bad because they aren't paying those guys enough compared to the money they produce. Then finally the NFL looks bad for having a free minor league system all the while raking in the cash year after year.

Dennis Pitta is the most recent NFL player to have to deal with this, and he sat out almost a full 2 years, only to reinjure the hip after that. It's impossible for me to ignore the history and everyone's motives involved with the reports.

It was an independent doctor with no connection to Tua. Was strictly talking about the surgery from an objective point of view.