Jonathan Taylor is your 1.01 now.

[Johnny B. Goode]

This has always been my conundrum. I don't think toying with numbers with the benefit of hindsight means a model is predictive. Simultaneously, I completely understand and agree that Breakout Age and Dominator have a clear link to top WR prospects, so it would be foolish to ignore it. I just wouldn't plaster it out there as the be-all and end-all of evaluation.

I can't remember who it was, but someone in a thread said they have a formula that hits on WR's better than the average NFL rate. I'm not buying anything that comes to that conclusion.

Sure do. would he happy to share. NFL hit rate (hit means at least 1 top 24 fantasy season)
1st round: 47%
2nd round: 38%
3rd round: 23%

My formula:
1st round: 61%
2nd round: 46%
3rd round: 40%

What can I say except, "You're welcome!"

So which guys are going to hit and which miss for this year?

I will have accurate numbers after the draft. I have no idea who is drafted where yet

[Cameron Giles]

Sure do. would he happy to share. NFL hit rate (hit means at least 1 top 24 fantasy season)
1st round: 47%
2nd round: 38%
3rd round: 23%

My formula:
1st round: 61%
2nd round: 46%
3rd round: 40%

The difference is your formula is built entirely with the benefit of hindsight.

If you can go years and years with the same formula and maintain consistent results, then there's a different discussion to be had. Otherwise, it hasn't predicted anything.

It was 80% correct in 2019

Great. Is this without tinkering or with tinkering?

Again, a formula isn't predictive until there are many years of actually maintaining the result. Just because you were able to line up past numbers to meet a certain criteria does not mean your formula predicted anything.

If you're claiming that you get better hit rates than the NFL, then either:'

1. You're full of bleep.
2. You're wasting your time doing this for fantasy purposes when you can make a killing doing this in the actual NFL.

[DJB]

Copy that.

[CGW]

Sure do. would he happy to share. NFL hit rate (hit means at least 1 top 24 fantasy season)
1st round: 47%
2nd round: 38%
3rd round: 23%

My formula:
1st round: 61%
2nd round: 46%
3rd round: 40%

The difference is your formula is built entirely with the benefit of hindsight.

If you can go years and years with the same formula and maintain consistent results, then there's a different discussion to be had. Otherwise, it hasn't predicted anything.

This is exactly right. Hindsight is always incredibly powerful in predicting the past. Unfortunately, the future is less predictable. If there was a magic formula, analytical or film study, NFL teams would almost never miss. I'm sceptical, but hope it truly does work out.

[Bot101]

Fair enough, but Mike's accuracy or ability to scout RBs has no baring on the notion that Taylor may be overrated. Just like saying that you are a "cranky old troll" has anything to do with the validity of any of your statements.

I don't see how I am trolling, but you're entitled to your opinion. My relationship with Mike is fine. We have mutual respect, and just because I called into question his claims doesn't mean I'm trolling him.

I'm recalling a time when someone else referred to you as a "cranky old troll". I actually do have respect for your opinions and I certainly hope that I would never resort to name calling on this forum. I'm not a big fan of personal pissing matches. They don't really serve any useful purpose.

Late to the party, but I believe that was me who called FF that. And part of that is the fact that we talk trash to each other all the time but mostly in private. And fwiw, he is definitely cranky and old but only a troll some of the time

[gunfrees]

Didn't Jesse Reeves do something similar a few months ago about hit rate using breakout age and dominator ranking? Seems like pretty interesting stuff:

https://twitter.com/JesseReevesFF/statu ... 7859127298

[Hottoddies]

Sure do. would he happy to share. NFL hit rate (hit means at least 1 top 24 fantasy season)
1st round: 47%
2nd round: 38%
3rd round: 23%

My formula:
1st round: 61%
2nd round: 46%
3rd round: 40%

What can I say except, "You're welcome!"

So which guys are going to hit and which miss for this year?

I will have accurate numbers after the draft. I have no idea who is drafted where yet

So I'm assuming that you only count the players that meet your Dominator and Breakout Age threshold from those that are invited to the combine and drafted. If you only count the ones that are deemed worthy of playing in the NFL and you don't include all of the college players that meet those Dominator and Breakout Age thresholds, those threshold standards in themselves don't have the same predictive quality and don't necessarily indicate a player's future prospect.

Furthermore, just because you may be able to somewhat predict the percentage of players within a certain group of players that will succeed, it doesn't necessarily mean that any one individual of that group will have the same chances of success.

[FantasyFreak]

Sure do. would he happy to share. NFL hit rate (hit means at least 1 top 24 fantasy season)
1st round: 47%
2nd round: 38%
3rd round: 23%

My formula:
1st round: 61%
2nd round: 46%
3rd round: 40%

The difference is your formula is built entirely with the benefit of hindsight.

If you can go years and years with the same formula and maintain consistent results, then there's a different discussion to be had. Otherwise, it hasn't predicted anything.

It was 80% correct in 2019

Pre-NFL draft?

[PR0v3]

The difference is your formula is built entirely with the benefit of hindsight.

If you can go years and years with the same formula and maintain consistent results, then there's a different discussion to be had. Otherwise, it hasn't predicted anything.

It was 80% correct in 2019

Pre-NFL draft?

Obviously not. Draft capital is an input in his model.

Funny enough, the “tape-grinding” he rails so hard against is an inherent factor in his “model” due to the heavy reliance on it by the NFL. The guy thinks he has ascended above actually watching players play, but he has actually just outsourced the work to those far more capable than him.

[Johnny B. Goode]

So which guys are going to hit and which miss for this year?

I will have accurate numbers after the draft. I have no idea who is drafted where yet

So I'm assuming that you only count the players that meet your Dominator and Breakout Age threshold from those that are invited to the combine and drafted. If you only count the ones that are deemed worthy of playing in the NFL and you don't include all of the college players that meet those Dominator and Breakout Age thresholds, those threshold standards in themselves don't have the same predictive quality and don't necessarily indicate a player's future prospect.

Furthermore, just because you may be able to somewhat predict the percentage of players within a certain group of players that will succeed, it doesn't necessarily mean that any one individual of that group will have the same chances of success.

That's why I dont go just off just those two thresholds to give a likelihood of success. Also, its another tool for the tool box

[gunfrees]

That's why I dont go just off just those two thresholds to give a likelihood of success. Also, its another tool for the tool box

Can you link the spreadsheet you've been talking about? I can't seem to find it

[Farley]

Sure do. would he happy to share. NFL hit rate (hit means at least 1 top 24 fantasy season)
1st round: 47%
2nd round: 38%
3rd round: 23%

My formula:
1st round: 61%
2nd round: 46%
3rd round: 40%

The difference is your formula is built entirely with the benefit of hindsight.

If you can go years and years with the same formula and maintain consistent results, then there's a different discussion to be had. Otherwise, it hasn't predicted anything.

It was 80% correct in 2019

I'm confused.

You say a hit is someone who achieves one top 24 season. And you were 80% right in 2019. I assume that means that 4 out of the 5 rookies that met your threshold had a top 24 season?

Can you elaborate on this 80% hit rate some more?

[blemly]

Wow. Just read all 16 pages. I didn’t learn much, but it was definitely entertaining.

[FantasyFreak]

It was 80% correct in 2019

Pre-NFL draft?

Obviously not. Draft capital is an input in his model.

Funny enough, the “tape-grinding” he rails so hard against is an inherent factor in his “model” due to the heavy reliance on it by the NFL. The guy thinks he has ascended above actually watching players play, but he has actually just outsourced the work to those far more capable than him.

Well then how can one say the hit rate is higher than the NFL's? Apples and Oranges.

[Cameron Giles]

It was 80% correct in 2019

Pre-NFL draft?

Obviously not. Draft capital is an input in his model.

Funny enough, the “tape-grinding” he rails so hard against is an inherent factor in his “model” due to the heavy reliance on it by the NFL. The guy thinks he has ascended above actually watching players play, but he has actually just outsourced the work to those far more capable than him.

That's a wrap.