The Most Over-Rated 2020 Rookie RB Is... Jonathan Taylor

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Re: The Most Over-Rated 2020 Rookie RB Is... Jonathan Taylor

Postby skinfanjon » Sun Mar 29, 2020 2:41 pm

Johnny B. Goode wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 2:29 pm
skinfanjon wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 2:19 pm
FantasyFreak wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 1:39 pm


For sure. I still use film analysis, just pointing out the potential issues with it. Nothing is perfect. Take the best of all available information, or what you consider to be the best, I should say, and use it accordingly.
Yep, all part of the soup. Analytics have their place for sure. As does watching tape for that "it" factor. I need better scouts to tell me what I'm seeing beyond that though. No shame in saying so.

If you vet out some solid resources for detailed scouting and combine that with BA, DR, draft capital, and general league knowledge, you got a pretty strong recipe for success. Especially if you can check your ego while doing so. Makes the charlatans like Johnny B really easy to spot too.
Thanks for the vote of confidence of my wr method!

Even when hes not replying to me he still finds a way to try to take a jab at me. When you're good, there's always a jealous hater.
I'm flattered ☺️
The problem with your spreadsheet, you donkey, is that you draw universal conclusions from it with your thumb on the scales and ignore the things that happen on the field. The tape matters, as does general league knowledge (which you come up short on). But the main area you fail is understanding your own biases. you take a good idea like BA+DR, make it about yourself, and completely ignore context.

And EVEN IF you create a perfect statistical model, it's still based on back testing. If you spend anytime analyzing financial markets (and I fully expect you'll profess expertise in this area too while being way over your skiis), you'll know that past success is no indication of future performance. In other words, the system depends on itself and has no true prognosticative value. The entire financial newsletter business is built on ripping people off over this premise btw. Agora financial, Motley Fool, etc...this is what they do.

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Re: The Most Over-Rated 2020 Rookie RB Is... Jonathan Taylor

Postby Johnny B. Goode » Sun Mar 29, 2020 2:45 pm

skinfanjon wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 2:41 pm
Johnny B. Goode wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 2:29 pm
skinfanjon wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 2:19 pm


Yep, all part of the soup. Analytics have their place for sure. As does watching tape for that "it" factor. I need better scouts to tell me what I'm seeing beyond that though. No shame in saying so.

If you vet out some solid resources for detailed scouting and combine that with BA, DR, draft capital, and general league knowledge, you got a pretty strong recipe for success. Especially if you can check your ego while doing so. Makes the charlatans like Johnny B really easy to spot too.
Thanks for the vote of confidence of my wr method!

Even when hes not replying to me he still finds a way to try to take a jab at me. When you're good, there's always a jealous hater.
I'm flattered ☺️
The problem with your spreadsheet, you donkey, is that you draw universal conclusions from it with your thumb on the scales and ignore the things that happen on the field. The tape matters, as does general league knowledge (which you come up short on). But the main area you fail is understanding your own biases. you take a good idea like BA+DR, make it about yourself, and completely ignore context.

And EVEN IF you create a perfect statistical model, it's still based on back testing. If you spend anytime analyzing financial markets (and I fully expect you'll profess expertise in this area too while being way over your skiis), you'll know that past success is no indication of future performance. In other words, the system depends on itself and has no true prognosticative value. The entire financial newsletter business is built on ripping people off over this premise btw. Agora financial, Motley Fool, etc...this is what they do.
Nah what I did is took BA and DR, and most recently combined it with draft capital to not only create a way to rule wrs out, but to predict the chance for success for each player drafted better than the nfl draft hit percentage. :idea:

Way more than what you can say :wink:
12 team PPR
QB: Murray, Lock, Stidham
RB: Barkley, Zeke, Mixon, J. Taylor (R), Dobbins (R), Henderson, R. Anderson,
WR: T. Hill, Godwin, Kupp, Sutton, Diggs, Gallup, P. Williams, Isabella, JJAW, Miller
TE: Engram, Hockenson, I Thomas, Warring
K: Tucker
TD: PIT
Picks: 2021 1, 2021 2, 2022 1, 2022 2, 2022 3

12 team PPR
QB: Darnold, Bridgewater, Stidham (TX)
RB: Sanders, Hunt, Jackson, Ballage, Murray, Samuels, B Hill, Henderson (TX), Ozigbo (TX), Gaskin (TX)
WR: Diggs, Gallup, Kupp, Sutton, Lazard, Isabella (TX), P. Williams (TX), JJAW (TX), Doss (TX), S. Miller (TX)
TE: Rudolph, Graham, Sternberger (TX)
K:
DEF: LAR
Picks: 1.1, 1.3, 2.4, 5.7, 2021 1, 2021 1, 2021 2, 2021 2, 2021 4, 2021 5

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Re: The Most Over-Rated 2020 Rookie RB Is... Jonathan Taylor

Postby skinfanjon » Sun Mar 29, 2020 2:55 pm

Johnny B. Goode wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 2:45 pm
skinfanjon wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 2:41 pm
Johnny B. Goode wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 2:29 pm


Thanks for the vote of confidence of my wr method!

Even when hes not replying to me he still finds a way to try to take a jab at me. When you're good, there's always a jealous hater.
I'm flattered ☺️
The problem with your spreadsheet, you donkey, is that you draw universal conclusions from it with your thumb on the scales and ignore the things that happen on the field. The tape matters, as does general league knowledge (which you come up short on). But the main area you fail is understanding your own biases. you take a good idea like BA+DR, make it about yourself, and completely ignore context.

And EVEN IF you create a perfect statistical model, it's still based on back testing. If you spend anytime analyzing financial markets (and I fully expect you'll profess expertise in this area too while being way over your skiis), you'll know that past success is no indication of future performance. In other words, the system depends on itself and has no true prognosticative value. The entire financial newsletter business is built on ripping people off over this premise btw. Agora financial, Motley Fool, etc...this is what they do.
Nah what I did is took BA and DR, and most recently combined it with draft capital to not only create a way to rule wrs out, but to predict the chance for success for each player drafted better than the nfl draft hit percentage. :idea:

Way more than what you can say :wink:
No you didnt. I'm sure you fully think you cracked the davinci code, but hilariously it only illustrates your ignorance.

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Re: The Most Over-Rated 2020 Rookie RB Is... Jonathan Taylor

Postby Cameron Giles » Sun Mar 29, 2020 2:57 pm

skinfanjon wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 2:41 pm
The problem with your spreadsheet, you donkey, is that you draw universal conclusions from it with your thumb on the scales and ignore the things that happen on the field. The tape matters, as does general league knowledge (which you come up short on). But the main area you fail is understanding your own biases. you take a good idea like BA+DR, make it about yourself, and completely ignore context.

And EVEN IF you create a perfect statistical model, it's still based on back testing. If you spend anytime analyzing financial markets (and I fully expect you'll profess expertise in this area too while being way over your skiis), you'll know that past success is no indication of future performance. In other words, the system depends on itself and has no true prognosticative value. The entire financial newsletter business is built on ripping people off over this premise btw. Agora financial, Motley Fool, etc...this is what they do.
This has always been my conundrum. I don't think toying with numbers with the benefit of hindsight means a model is predictive. Simultaneously, I completely understand and agree that Breakout Age and Dominator have a clear link to top WR prospects, so it would be foolish to ignore it. I just wouldn't plaster it out there as the be-all and end-all of evaluation.

I can't remember who it was, but someone in a thread said they have a formula that hits on WR's better than the average NFL rate. I'm not buying anything that comes to that conclusion.

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Re: The Most Over-Rated 2020 Rookie RB Is... Jonathan Taylor

Postby skinfanjon » Sun Mar 29, 2020 3:03 pm

Cameron Giles wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 2:57 pm
skinfanjon wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 2:41 pm
The problem with your spreadsheet, you donkey, is that you draw universal conclusions from it with your thumb on the scales and ignore the things that happen on the field. The tape matters, as does general league knowledge (which you come up short on). But the main area you fail is understanding your own biases. you take a good idea like BA+DR, make it about yourself, and completely ignore context.

And EVEN IF you create a perfect statistical model, it's still based on back testing. If you spend anytime analyzing financial markets (and I fully expect you'll profess expertise in this area too while being way over your skiis), you'll know that past success is no indication of future performance. In other words, the system depends on itself and has no true prognosticative value. The entire financial newsletter business is built on ripping people off over this premise btw. Agora financial, Motley Fool, etc...this is what they do.
This has always been my conundrum. I don't think toying with numbers with the benefit of hindsight means a model is predictive. Simultaneously, I completely understand and agree that Breakout Age and Dominator have a clear link to top WR prospects, so it would be foolish to ignore it. I just wouldn't plaster it out there as the be-all and end-all of evaluation.

I can't remember who it was, but someone in a thread said they have a formula that hits on WR's better than the average NFL rate. I'm not buying anything that comes to that conclusion.
Agree completely and it's this thread right here lol. Look up like two posts and he just repeated it.

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Re: The Most Over-Rated 2020 Rookie RB Is... Jonathan Taylor

Postby Johnny B. Goode » Sun Mar 29, 2020 3:09 pm

Cameron Giles wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 2:57 pm
skinfanjon wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 2:41 pm
The problem with your spreadsheet, you donkey, is that you draw universal conclusions from it with your thumb on the scales and ignore the things that happen on the field. The tape matters, as does general league knowledge (which you come up short on). But the main area you fail is understanding your own biases. you take a good idea like BA+DR, make it about yourself, and completely ignore context.

And EVEN IF you create a perfect statistical model, it's still based on back testing. If you spend anytime analyzing financial markets (and I fully expect you'll profess expertise in this area too while being way over your skiis), you'll know that past success is no indication of future performance. In other words, the system depends on itself and has no true prognosticative value. The entire financial newsletter business is built on ripping people off over this premise btw. Agora financial, Motley Fool, etc...this is what they do.
This has always been my conundrum. I don't think toying with numbers with the benefit of hindsight means a model is predictive. Simultaneously, I completely understand and agree that Breakout Age and Dominator have a clear link to top WR prospects, so it would be foolish to ignore it. I just wouldn't plaster it out there as the be-all and end-all of evaluation.

I can't remember who it was, but someone in a thread said they have a formula that hits on WR's better than the average NFL rate. I'm not buying anything that comes to that conclusion.
Sure do. would he happy to share. NFL hit rate (hit means at least 1 top 24 fantasy season)
1st round: 47%
2nd round: 38%
3rd round: 23%

My formula:
1st round: 61%
2nd round: 46%
3rd round: 40%

What can I say except, "You're welcome!"
12 team PPR
QB: Murray, Lock, Stidham
RB: Barkley, Zeke, Mixon, J. Taylor (R), Dobbins (R), Henderson, R. Anderson,
WR: T. Hill, Godwin, Kupp, Sutton, Diggs, Gallup, P. Williams, Isabella, JJAW, Miller
TE: Engram, Hockenson, I Thomas, Warring
K: Tucker
TD: PIT
Picks: 2021 1, 2021 2, 2022 1, 2022 2, 2022 3

12 team PPR
QB: Darnold, Bridgewater, Stidham (TX)
RB: Sanders, Hunt, Jackson, Ballage, Murray, Samuels, B Hill, Henderson (TX), Ozigbo (TX), Gaskin (TX)
WR: Diggs, Gallup, Kupp, Sutton, Lazard, Isabella (TX), P. Williams (TX), JJAW (TX), Doss (TX), S. Miller (TX)
TE: Rudolph, Graham, Sternberger (TX)
K:
DEF: LAR
Picks: 1.1, 1.3, 2.4, 5.7, 2021 1, 2021 1, 2021 2, 2021 2, 2021 4, 2021 5

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Re: The Most Over-Rated 2020 Rookie RB Is... Jonathan Taylor

Postby Cameron Giles » Sun Mar 29, 2020 3:12 pm

Johnny B. Goode wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 3:09 pm
Sure do. would he happy to share. NFL hit rate (hit means at least 1 top 24 fantasy season)
1st round: 47%
2nd round: 38%
3rd round: 23%

My formula:
1st round: 61%
2nd round: 46%
3rd round: 40%
The difference is your formula is built entirely with the benefit of hindsight.

If you can go years and years with the same formula and maintain consistent results, then there's a different discussion to be had. Otherwise, it hasn't predicted anything.
Last edited by Cameron Giles on Sun Mar 29, 2020 3:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: The Most Over-Rated 2020 Rookie RB Is... Jonathan Taylor

Postby skinfanjon » Sun Mar 29, 2020 3:14 pm

Cameron Giles wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 3:12 pm
Johnny B. Goode wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 3:09 pm
Sure do. would he happy to share. NFL hit rate (hit means at least 1 top 24 fantasy season)
1st round: 47%
2nd round: 38%
3rd round: 23%

My formula:
1st round: 61%
2nd round: 46%
3rd round: 40%
The difference is your formula is built entirely with the benefit of hindsight.
Shhhh let him keep going

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Re: The Most Over-Rated 2020 Rookie RB Is... Jonathan Taylor

Postby Johnny B. Goode » Sun Mar 29, 2020 3:22 pm

Cameron Giles wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 3:12 pm
Johnny B. Goode wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 3:09 pm
Sure do. would he happy to share. NFL hit rate (hit means at least 1 top 24 fantasy season)
1st round: 47%
2nd round: 38%
3rd round: 23%

My formula:
1st round: 61%
2nd round: 46%
3rd round: 40%
The difference is your formula is built entirely with the benefit of hindsight.

If you can go years and years with the same formula and maintain consistent results, then there's a different discussion to be had. Otherwise, it hasn't predicted anything.
It was 80% correct in 2019
12 team PPR
QB: Murray, Lock, Stidham
RB: Barkley, Zeke, Mixon, J. Taylor (R), Dobbins (R), Henderson, R. Anderson,
WR: T. Hill, Godwin, Kupp, Sutton, Diggs, Gallup, P. Williams, Isabella, JJAW, Miller
TE: Engram, Hockenson, I Thomas, Warring
K: Tucker
TD: PIT
Picks: 2021 1, 2021 2, 2022 1, 2022 2, 2022 3

12 team PPR
QB: Darnold, Bridgewater, Stidham (TX)
RB: Sanders, Hunt, Jackson, Ballage, Murray, Samuels, B Hill, Henderson (TX), Ozigbo (TX), Gaskin (TX)
WR: Diggs, Gallup, Kupp, Sutton, Lazard, Isabella (TX), P. Williams (TX), JJAW (TX), Doss (TX), S. Miller (TX)
TE: Rudolph, Graham, Sternberger (TX)
K:
DEF: LAR
Picks: 1.1, 1.3, 2.4, 5.7, 2021 1, 2021 1, 2021 2, 2021 2, 2021 4, 2021 5

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Re: The Most Over-Rated 2020 Rookie RB Is... Jonathan Taylor

Postby DJB » Sun Mar 29, 2020 3:23 pm

Johnny B. Goode wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 3:09 pm
Cameron Giles wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 2:57 pm
skinfanjon wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 2:41 pm
The problem with your spreadsheet, you donkey, is that you draw universal conclusions from it with your thumb on the scales and ignore the things that happen on the field. The tape matters, as does general league knowledge (which you come up short on). But the main area you fail is understanding your own biases. you take a good idea like BA+DR, make it about yourself, and completely ignore context.

And EVEN IF you create a perfect statistical model, it's still based on back testing. If you spend anytime analyzing financial markets (and I fully expect you'll profess expertise in this area too while being way over your skiis), you'll know that past success is no indication of future performance. In other words, the system depends on itself and has no true prognosticative value. The entire financial newsletter business is built on ripping people off over this premise btw. Agora financial, Motley Fool, etc...this is what they do.
This has always been my conundrum. I don't think toying with numbers with the benefit of hindsight means a model is predictive. Simultaneously, I completely understand and agree that Breakout Age and Dominator have a clear link to top WR prospects, so it would be foolish to ignore it. I just wouldn't plaster it out there as the be-all and end-all of evaluation.

I can't remember who it was, but someone in a thread said they have a formula that hits on WR's better than the average NFL rate. I'm not buying anything that comes to that conclusion.
Sure do. would he happy to share. NFL hit rate (hit means at least 1 top 24 fantasy season)
1st round: 47%
2nd round: 38%
3rd round: 23%

My formula:
1st round: 61%
2nd round: 46%
3rd round: 40%

What can I say except, "You're welcome!"
So which guys are going to hit and which miss for this year?
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Re: The Most Over-Rated 2020 Rookie RB Is... Jonathan Taylor

Postby Johnny B. Goode » Sun Mar 29, 2020 3:26 pm

DJB wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 3:23 pm
Johnny B. Goode wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 3:09 pm
Cameron Giles wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 2:57 pm


This has always been my conundrum. I don't think toying with numbers with the benefit of hindsight means a model is predictive. Simultaneously, I completely understand and agree that Breakout Age and Dominator have a clear link to top WR prospects, so it would be foolish to ignore it. I just wouldn't plaster it out there as the be-all and end-all of evaluation.

I can't remember who it was, but someone in a thread said they have a formula that hits on WR's better than the average NFL rate. I'm not buying anything that comes to that conclusion.
Sure do. would he happy to share. NFL hit rate (hit means at least 1 top 24 fantasy season)
1st round: 47%
2nd round: 38%
3rd round: 23%

My formula:
1st round: 61%
2nd round: 46%
3rd round: 40%

What can I say except, "You're welcome!"
So which guys are going to hit and which miss for this year?
I will have accurate numbers after the draft. I have no idea who is drafted where yet
12 team PPR
QB: Murray, Lock, Stidham
RB: Barkley, Zeke, Mixon, J. Taylor (R), Dobbins (R), Henderson, R. Anderson,
WR: T. Hill, Godwin, Kupp, Sutton, Diggs, Gallup, P. Williams, Isabella, JJAW, Miller
TE: Engram, Hockenson, I Thomas, Warring
K: Tucker
TD: PIT
Picks: 2021 1, 2021 2, 2022 1, 2022 2, 2022 3

12 team PPR
QB: Darnold, Bridgewater, Stidham (TX)
RB: Sanders, Hunt, Jackson, Ballage, Murray, Samuels, B Hill, Henderson (TX), Ozigbo (TX), Gaskin (TX)
WR: Diggs, Gallup, Kupp, Sutton, Lazard, Isabella (TX), P. Williams (TX), JJAW (TX), Doss (TX), S. Miller (TX)
TE: Rudolph, Graham, Sternberger (TX)
K:
DEF: LAR
Picks: 1.1, 1.3, 2.4, 5.7, 2021 1, 2021 1, 2021 2, 2021 2, 2021 4, 2021 5

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Re: The Most Over-Rated 2020 Rookie RB Is... Jonathan Taylor

Postby Cameron Giles » Sun Mar 29, 2020 3:26 pm

Johnny B. Goode wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 3:22 pm
Cameron Giles wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 3:12 pm
Johnny B. Goode wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 3:09 pm
Sure do. would he happy to share. NFL hit rate (hit means at least 1 top 24 fantasy season)
1st round: 47%
2nd round: 38%
3rd round: 23%

My formula:
1st round: 61%
2nd round: 46%
3rd round: 40%
The difference is your formula is built entirely with the benefit of hindsight.

If you can go years and years with the same formula and maintain consistent results, then there's a different discussion to be had. Otherwise, it hasn't predicted anything.
It was 80% correct in 2019
Great. Is this without tinkering or with tinkering?

Again, a formula isn't predictive until there are many years of actually maintaining the result. Just because you were able to line up past numbers to meet a certain criteria does not mean your formula predicted anything.

If you're claiming that you get better hit rates than the NFL, then either:'

1. You're full of bleep.
2. You're wasting your time doing this for fantasy purposes when you can make a killing doing this in the actual NFL.
Last edited by Cameron Giles on Sun Mar 29, 2020 3:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: The Most Over-Rated 2020 Rookie RB Is... Jonathan Taylor

Postby DJB » Sun Mar 29, 2020 3:27 pm

Copy that.
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Re: The Most Over-Rated 2020 Rookie RB Is... Jonathan Taylor

Postby CGW » Sun Mar 29, 2020 3:53 pm

Cameron Giles wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 3:12 pm
Johnny B. Goode wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 3:09 pm
Sure do. would he happy to share. NFL hit rate (hit means at least 1 top 24 fantasy season)
1st round: 47%
2nd round: 38%
3rd round: 23%

My formula:
1st round: 61%
2nd round: 46%
3rd round: 40%
The difference is your formula is built entirely with the benefit of hindsight.

If you can go years and years with the same formula and maintain consistent results, then there's a different discussion to be had. Otherwise, it hasn't predicted anything.
This is exactly right. Hindsight is always incredibly powerful in predicting the past. Unfortunately, the future is less predictable. If there was a magic formula, analytical or film study, NFL teams would almost never miss. I'm sceptical, but hope it truly does work out.
12 Team | Superflex | PPR | 6pt passing TD
25 Roster Spots
QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, FL, SF

QB | Cousins, Darnold, Trubisky
RB | Mixon, Barber, R. Freeman, Singletary, Ballage, D. Thompson, Gaskin
WR | Adams, Evans, Golladay, Cooper, Washington, D. Johnson, Conley, Amendola, A. Miller
TE | Herndon, Andrews, Everett, Sternberger
2020 | 1.03, 5.09
2021 | 1st, 1st, 3rd

10 Team | Superflex | PPR
25 Roster Spots
QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, FL, SF

QB | Rodgers, Murray, Minshew
RB | Chubb, Montgomery, Guice, Singletary, Ballage, Edmonds, Murray, R. Jones, Dobbins, Swift
WR | Golladay, Godwin, Kirk, M. Brown, Arcega-Whiteside, Renfrow, Slayton, Reynolds, D. Johnson, Aiyuk
TE | Henry, Herndon, Andrews, Everett

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Re: The Most Over-Rated 2020 Rookie RB Is... Jonathan Taylor

Postby Bot101 » Sun Mar 29, 2020 4:03 pm

Hottoddies wrote:
Sat Mar 28, 2020 4:55 pm
FantasyFreak wrote:
Sat Mar 28, 2020 3:58 pm
Hottoddies wrote:
Sat Mar 28, 2020 3:15 pm


Fair enough, but Mike's accuracy or ability to scout RBs has no baring on the notion that Taylor may be overrated. Just like saying that you are a "cranky old troll" has anything to do with the validity of any of your statements.
I don't see how I am trolling, but you're entitled to your opinion. My relationship with Mike is fine. We have mutual respect, and just because I called into question his claims doesn't mean I'm trolling him.
I'm recalling a time when someone else referred to you as a "cranky old troll". I actually do have respect for your opinions and I certainly hope that I would never resort to name calling on this forum. I'm not a big fan of personal pissing matches. They don't really serve any useful purpose.
Late to the party, but I believe that was me who called FF that. And part of that is the fact that we talk trash to each other all the time but mostly in private. And fwiw, he is definitely cranky and old but only a troll some of the time :ewink:


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