The Most Over-Rated 2020 Rookie RB Is... Jonathan Taylor

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Re: The Most Over-Rated 2020 Rookie RB Is... Jonathan Taylor

Postby bjd5211 » Sun Mar 29, 2020 11:24 am

Johnny B. Goode wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 11:19 am

It isnt... have you read the recent WSJ article, or did you see the epidemiologist whose model was used to create the hysteria recently retracted it and significantly downgraded the effects based on data showing how it waa spreading far before we even knew about it, and how a massive number of people have little to no symptoms?
It's killed 30,000 people.......

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Re: The Most Over-Rated 2020 Rookie RB Is... Jonathan Taylor

Postby OhCruelestRanter » Sun Mar 29, 2020 11:31 am

MikeH- I think the way you play this fun, dumb little game is sub-optimal. But holy bleep, I was wrong to mention you in the same sentence as this know-nothing fake-doctor moron. I’m genuinely sorry for that. Sincerely.

Johnny B. Stupid, if you want to be wrong about COVID, go do it in the COVID thread you absolute bleep donkey.
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Re: The Most Over-Rated 2020 Rookie RB Is... Jonathan Taylor

Postby Chwf3rd » Sun Mar 29, 2020 11:40 am

dlf_mikeh wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 10:15 am
OhCruelestRanter wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 10:10 am
No no, you should totally pay for DLF Premium. They’re always right, and when they aren’t, well, it doesn’t count. Somebody get this thread to @Fantasy_Mansion please.
I see a lot of complaining but not a lot of reasons why. Can we finally get some clarification?

Dobbins and Swift will have better rookie seasons than JT. (I think it will easily be better but "easily" isn't measurable so I removed the term)

I'd like to see who disagrees with me so we have something measurable at the end of the season.
Don’t worry I’ll disagree then if I’m wrong I’ll say I didn’t mean what I said because I was just trying to trick a league mate!
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RB: AKamara, JMixon, DHenderson, LMcCoy, RArmstead, TPollard
WR: ACooper, SDiggs, CSamuel, AJGreen, SWatkins, AMiller, DiJohnson, ZPascal
TE: MAndrews, ISmith, KWarring
Record: 4-6
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QB: MStafford, SDarnold, DJones, BRoethlisberger, ALuck
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Team 3 - 12 team, PPR, 2QB, 2TE
QB: DWatson, CWentz, MStafford, DJones, ALuck
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WR: THill, DAdams, SDiggs, DSamuel, PCampbell, DiJohnson, JCrowder, JWashington, ALazard, ATate
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Re: The Most Over-Rated 2020 Rookie RB Is... Jonathan Taylor

Postby Hottoddies » Sun Mar 29, 2020 11:41 am

Zacsby wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 8:47 am
dlf_mikeh wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 5:46 am
Where's the stop-and-go footwork that every RB needs to possess? Where did he ever show ability to find cut back lanes? Why can't he keep his hips pointed downfield when he avoids tacklers?
https://youtu.be/we_qHxD6C-4

2:24

I'm no expert on the intricacies of the RB position, but does this play not showcase some of the things you claim JT unequivocally lacks? That is one small crease. Not only did he possess the vision to see it, he has the agility and footwork to get to it. Of course we all know he has the athleticism to explode through it. Two defenders had him squared up in the hole and then poof, he was gone.
This wasn't necessarily a stop and go at any significant speed or quickness. This was Taylor taking two steps, then faced with a defender in his face, decisively stepping to his right and slipping through two of his blockers then, after his prerequisite three steps to get up to top speed, takes it to the house. This is a good example of one of Taylor strengths. He's strong runner who is able to maneuver in traffic and power through tacklers. But his speed doesn't really come into play in this aspect of his game. He isn't really a quick burst, stop and go, ankle buster kind of runner. His speed only comes into play when gets three unchallenged steps to get there.
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Re: The Most Over-Rated 2020 Rookie RB Is... Jonathan Taylor

Postby skinfanjon » Sun Mar 29, 2020 11:53 am

Johnny B. Goode wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 11:19 am
OhCruelestRanter wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 7:55 am
dlf_mikeh wrote:
Sat Mar 28, 2020 11:42 pm

I would say this isn't true. People have pointed out some examples of inaccuracy. Nothing extraordinary, no big whiffs, but examples none-the-less.

Until someone provides a better track record from someone else or of their own accord, I'm going to declare myself the RB rankings winner. And we all know that a self-proclaimed title is the highest one can achieve. Soon enough the money and women will follow.
This is an awful lot of defending yourself for somebody who has claimed multiple times to not care about our respect. :think:

Anyways, yeah, you spectacularly and hilariously failed to back up the claim that you’re “the most accurate RB analysis over the last 3-4 years”. It would be one thing if it was just the laundry list of misses (Henry, Cook, Chubb, Ballage, Michel etc.), or just the fact that you never offered any proof that you have the most accurate analysis (instead hiding behind the fact that you’re a provocateur or something). But no, when called out on being wildly wrong, you just claimed that you were lying. It’s a claim that’s gone sideways as quickly as Johnny B. Goode saying the coronavirus wasn’t a big deal.

Anyways, since you asked that we get back to Taylor, here goes. He has historically good production. We have data that says this means something. He’s a historically good athlete. We also have data that says this means something. We don’t yet know his draft capital, but when we do, we’ll have data that says that means something too.

We have no data about “what MikeH feels when he watches a video of a running back play football.” There’s no meaningful conclusion to be drawn from your efforts. It means bleep nothing.
It isnt... have you read the recent WSJ article, or did you see the epidemiologist whose model was used to create the hysteria recently retracted it and significantly downgraded the effects based on data showing how it waa spreading far before we even knew about it, and how a massive number of people have little to no symptoms?
For those playing at home, keep this in mind when you start hearing about the significance of the holy spreadsheet. Make sure to recall this guy point blank doesnt understand statistics.

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Re: The Most Over-Rated 2020 Rookie RB Is... Jonathan Taylor

Postby Bronco Billy » Sun Mar 29, 2020 12:05 pm

dlf_mikeh wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 10:15 am
OhCruelestRanter wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 10:10 am
No no, you should totally pay for DLF Premium. They’re always right, and when they aren’t, well, it doesn’t count. Somebody get this thread to @Fantasy_Mansion please.
I see a lot of complaining but not a lot of reasons why. Can we finally get some clarification?

Dobbins and Swift will have better rookie seasons than JT. (I think it will easily be better but "easily" isn't measurable so I removed the term)

I'd like to see who disagrees with me so we have something measurable at the end of the season.
I’ll disagree with you and I’ll propose something simple to back it up.

FF scoring:
0.1 pts/yard gained rushing or receiving
0.2 pts/carry
0.5 pts/reception
6 pts per TD
-2 pts/fumble lost
Games where a RB is injured and removed from the game without returning to that game are removed from scoring
If Taylor is unable to play in the 2020 regular season due to injury or the season being cancelled the bet is nullified.
ETA - RBs must have either at least 100 touches in the season or average at least 7.5 touches per game when active to qualify.

Taylor finishes in the top 4 rookie RBs in FF pts per game. I’d go higher than top 4 but I’m taking the risk of taking the bet prior to knowing his landing spot in the draft.

If you win I pay out $50 to you
If I win you state here in your sig line in normal font unequivocally and unconditionally that you were wrong about Taylor for the year following the end of the regular season.

You game?
Last edited by Bronco Billy on Sun Mar 29, 2020 12:36 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: The Most Over-Rated 2020 Rookie RB Is... Jonathan Taylor

Postby Blueboy » Sun Mar 29, 2020 12:17 pm

Came into this thread expecting Mike to have made a super controversial claim, based on the response. But what are we actually getting worked up about? It seems like he's just being overly cautious, if anything.

Taylor is definitely the less complete prospect compared to guys like Dobbins and Swift, who both look about as "safe" as a college RB can be heading into the draft. Concerns about his pass protection and fumbling have been overblown imo, but they are still concerns, plus he didn't get used as a receiver the way Dobbins/Swift did in college.

FWIW I still have Taylor as my top guy -- I prefer betting on his upside, and feel confident that he'll manage to develop his pass protection, receiving, ball security, and even vision/technique at the NFL level. Dude's got the right combination of intelligence and work ethic. But that's me putting my bet on non-measurables. Mike suggesting that folk should use their top picks on fool-proof prospects, rather than guys who'll need to develop (even if Taylor has higher upside), isn't some kind of against-the-grain blasphemy. If anything, I'm underwhelmed. I come to you for that patented blend of analysis and overblown controversy, Mike. Gimme those hot takes.

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1QB 2RB 3WR 1TE 1SF 2Flex
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RB: Hunt, Guice, J. Howard, Z. Moss, B. Love
WR: DJM, Metcalf, Lamb, Hollywood, Ruggs, Pittman, M. Williams, V.Jefferson, Duvernay, Isabella
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Re: The Most Over-Rated 2020 Rookie RB Is... Jonathan Taylor

Postby FantasyFreak » Sun Mar 29, 2020 12:27 pm

Blueboy wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 12:17 pm
Came into this thread expecting Mike to have made a super controversial claim, based on the response. But what are we actually getting worked up about? It seems like he's just being overly cautious, if anything.

Taylor is definitely the less complete prospect compared to guys like Dobbins and Swift, who both look about as "safe" as a college RB can be heading into the draft. Concerns about his pass protection and fumbling have been overblown imo, but they are still concerns, plus he didn't get used as a receiver the way Dobbins/Swift did in college.

FWIW I still have Taylor as my top guy -- I prefer betting on his upside, and feel confident that he'll manage to develop his pass protection, receiving, ball security, and even vision/technique at the NFL level. Dude's got the right combination of intelligence and work ethic. But that's me putting my bet on non-measurables. Mike suggesting that folk should use their top picks on fool-proof prospects, rather than guys who'll need to develop (even if Taylor has higher upside), isn't some kind of against-the-grain blasphemy. If anything, I'm underwhelmed. I come to you for that patented blend of analysis and overblown controversy, Mike. Gimme those hot takes.
It's wasn't about JT, it was about his claim that he had the most accurate RB analysis over the last 3-4 years where things got testy.
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Re: The Most Over-Rated 2020 Rookie RB Is... Jonathan Taylor

Postby Johnny B. Goode » Sun Mar 29, 2020 12:45 pm

Blueboy wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 12:17 pm
Came into this thread expecting Mike to have made a super controversial claim, based on the response. But what are we actually getting worked up about? It seems like he's just being overly cautious, if anything.

Taylor is definitely the less complete prospect compared to guys like Dobbins and Swift, who both look about as "safe" as a college RB can be heading into the draft. Concerns about his pass protection and fumbling have been overblown imo, but they are still concerns, plus he didn't get used as a receiver the way Dobbins/Swift did in college.

FWIW I still have Taylor as my top guy -- I prefer betting on his upside, and feel confident that he'll manage to develop his pass protection, receiving, ball security, and even vision/technique at the NFL level. Dude's got the right combination of intelligence and work ethic. But that's me putting my bet on non-measurables. Mike suggesting that folk should use their top picks on fool-proof prospects, rather than guys who'll need to develop (even if Taylor has higher upside), isn't some kind of against-the-grain blasphemy. If anything, I'm underwhelmed. I come to you for that patented blend of analysis and overblown controversy, Mike. Gimme those hot takes.
I agree. I was expecting him to say hes off his board like Henderson was. RB3 isnt such massive drop. I agree he has more questionmarks than Dobbins and Swift, but IMO he has the highest ceiling.
12 team PPR
QB: Murray, Lock, Stidham
RB: Barkley, Zeke, Mixon, J. Taylor (R), Dobbins (R), Henderson, R. Anderson,
WR: T. Hill, Godwin, Kupp, Sutton, Diggs, Gallup, P. Williams, Isabella, JJAW, Miller
TE: Engram, Hockenson, I Thomas, Warring
K: Tucker
TD: PIT
Picks: 2021 1, 2021 2, 2022 1, 2022 2, 2022 3

12 team PPR
QB: Darnold, Bridgewater, Stidham (TX)
RB: Sanders, Hunt, Jackson, Ballage, Murray, Samuels, B Hill, Henderson (TX), Ozigbo (TX), Gaskin (TX)
WR: Diggs, Gallup, Kupp, Sutton, Lazard, Isabella (TX), P. Williams (TX), JJAW (TX), Doss (TX), S. Miller (TX)
TE: Rudolph, Graham, Sternberger (TX)
K:
DEF: LAR
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Re: The Most Over-Rated 2020 Rookie RB Is... Jonathan Taylor

Postby dlf_mikeh » Sun Mar 29, 2020 1:08 pm

Bronco Billy wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 12:05 pm
dlf_mikeh wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 10:15 am
Dobbins and Swift will have better rookie seasons than JT. (I think it will easily be better but "easily" isn't measurable so I removed the term)

I'd like to see who disagrees with me so we have something measurable at the end of the season.
I’ll disagree with you and I’ll propose something simple to back it up.

FF scoring:
0.1 pts/yard gained rushing or receiving
0.2 pts/carry
0.5 pts/reception
6 pts per TD
-2 pts/fumble lost
Games where a RB is injured and removed from the game without returning to that game are removed from scoring
If Taylor is unable to play in the 2020 regular season due to injury or the season being cancelled the bet is nullified.
ETA - RBs must have either at least 100 touches in the season or average at least 7.5 touches per game when active to qualify.

Taylor finishes in the top 4 rookie RBs in FF pts per game. I’d go higher than top 4 but I’m taking the risk of taking the bet prior to knowing his landing spot in the draft.

If you win I pay out $50 to you
If I win you state here in your sig line in normal font unequivocally and unconditionally that you were wrong about Taylor for the year following the end of the regular season.

You game?
Wait wait, this is simple? :)

I didn't say JT wouldn't be a top 4 rookie RB or even a top 3 for that matter. For all anyone else knows I think the rest of the RB field is worthless and I only have 3 guys in my rankings worth owning.

The premise of my original post is that Dobbins and Swift are far more valuable right off the bat. That's where everyone started to disagree. If someone disagrees then a Dobbins/Swift vs JT is the foundation of the bet I wanna make. And not for money, but for bragging rights. Like something the loser has to put in their sig next off-season or something. :P

JT has the highest ceiling career-wise, but also the least likely imo.
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Re: The Most Over-Rated 2020 Rookie RB Is... Jonathan Taylor

Postby Cameron Giles » Sun Mar 29, 2020 1:13 pm

FantasyFreak wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 10:34 am
My issue with film analysis is 2 different people can see 2 different things. Matt Waldman breaks down the same play Mike just did, but calls his "almost falling down" a stop start movement, the very thing Mike said he should have used. Personally I don't think he almost fell, but I can't definitively argue it.
With film analysis, you really need to consider multiple sources. Just going off Waldman or Mike, or whoever as the lone source is going to get you nowhere long-term. There are a lot of draft analysts and writers out there who are praised for their work with game tape.

I'm all for whatever paints a complete analysis of a prospect. There's been a bunch of times in these forums where people have formed logical opinions based on a healthy combination of watching games themselves, other analysts, and analytics, and been on the money.

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Re: The Most Over-Rated 2020 Rookie RB Is... Jonathan Taylor

Postby skinfanjon » Sun Mar 29, 2020 1:29 pm

Cameron Giles wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 1:13 pm
FantasyFreak wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 10:34 am
My issue with film analysis is 2 different people can see 2 different things. Matt Waldman breaks down the same play Mike just did, but calls his "almost falling down" a stop start movement, the very thing Mike said he should have used. Personally I don't think he almost fell, but I can't definitively argue it.
I'm all for whatever paints a complete analysis of a prospect. There's been a bunch of times in these forums where people have formed logical opinions based on a healthy combination of watching games themselves, other analysts, and analytics, and been on the money.
Unless you truly have advanced scouting ability, this is the most successful method. Gather info from the best sources and distill it down to a high confidence ranking. The difficult prerequisite is having awareness of your own biases though.

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Re: The Most Over-Rated 2020 Rookie RB Is... Jonathan Taylor

Postby FantasyFreak » Sun Mar 29, 2020 1:39 pm

skinfanjon wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 1:29 pm
Cameron Giles wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 1:13 pm
FantasyFreak wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 10:34 am
My issue with film analysis is 2 different people can see 2 different things. Matt Waldman breaks down the same play Mike just did, but calls his "almost falling down" a stop start movement, the very thing Mike said he should have used. Personally I don't think he almost fell, but I can't definitively argue it.
I'm all for whatever paints a complete analysis of a prospect. There's been a bunch of times in these forums where people have formed logical opinions based on a healthy combination of watching games themselves, other analysts, and analytics, and been on the money.
Unless you truly have advanced scouting ability, this is the most successful method. Gather info from the best sources and distill it down to a high confidence ranking. The difficult prerequisite is having awareness of your own biases though.
For sure. I still use film analysis, just pointing out the potential issues with it. Nothing is perfect. Take the best of all available information, or what you consider to be the best, I should say, and use it accordingly.
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Re: The Most Over-Rated 2020 Rookie RB Is... Jonathan Taylor

Postby skinfanjon » Sun Mar 29, 2020 2:19 pm

FantasyFreak wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 1:39 pm
skinfanjon wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 1:29 pm
Cameron Giles wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 1:13 pm


I'm all for whatever paints a complete analysis of a prospect. There's been a bunch of times in these forums where people have formed logical opinions based on a healthy combination of watching games themselves, other analysts, and analytics, and been on the money.
Unless you truly have advanced scouting ability, this is the most successful method. Gather info from the best sources and distill it down to a high confidence ranking. The difficult prerequisite is having awareness of your own biases though.
For sure. I still use film analysis, just pointing out the potential issues with it. Nothing is perfect. Take the best of all available information, or what you consider to be the best, I should say, and use it accordingly.
Yep, all part of the soup. Analytics have their place for sure. As does watching tape for that "it" factor. I need better scouts to tell me what I'm seeing beyond that though. No shame in saying so.

If you vet out some solid resources for detailed scouting and combine that with BA, DR, draft capital, and general league knowledge, you got a pretty strong recipe for success. Especially if you can check your ego while doing so. Makes the charlatans like Johnny B really easy to spot too.

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Re: The Most Over-Rated 2020 Rookie RB Is... Jonathan Taylor

Postby Johnny B. Goode » Sun Mar 29, 2020 2:29 pm

skinfanjon wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 2:19 pm
FantasyFreak wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 1:39 pm
skinfanjon wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 1:29 pm


Unless you truly have advanced scouting ability, this is the most successful method. Gather info from the best sources and distill it down to a high confidence ranking. The difficult prerequisite is having awareness of your own biases though.
For sure. I still use film analysis, just pointing out the potential issues with it. Nothing is perfect. Take the best of all available information, or what you consider to be the best, I should say, and use it accordingly.
Yep, all part of the soup. Analytics have their place for sure. As does watching tape for that "it" factor. I need better scouts to tell me what I'm seeing beyond that though. No shame in saying so.

If you vet out some solid resources for detailed scouting and combine that with BA, DR, draft capital, and general league knowledge, you got a pretty strong recipe for success. Especially if you can check your ego while doing so. Makes the charlatans like Johnny B really easy to spot too.
Thanks for the vote of confidence of my wr method!

Even when hes not replying to me he still finds a way to try to take a jab at me.

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12 team PPR
QB: Murray, Lock, Stidham
RB: Barkley, Zeke, Mixon, J. Taylor (R), Dobbins (R), Henderson, R. Anderson,
WR: T. Hill, Godwin, Kupp, Sutton, Diggs, Gallup, P. Williams, Isabella, JJAW, Miller
TE: Engram, Hockenson, I Thomas, Warring
K: Tucker
TD: PIT
Picks: 2021 1, 2021 2, 2022 1, 2022 2, 2022 3

12 team PPR
QB: Darnold, Bridgewater, Stidham (TX)
RB: Sanders, Hunt, Jackson, Ballage, Murray, Samuels, B Hill, Henderson (TX), Ozigbo (TX), Gaskin (TX)
WR: Diggs, Gallup, Kupp, Sutton, Lazard, Isabella (TX), P. Williams (TX), JJAW (TX), Doss (TX), S. Miller (TX)
TE: Rudolph, Graham, Sternberger (TX)
K:
DEF: LAR
Picks: 1.1, 1.3, 2.4, 5.7, 2021 1, 2021 1, 2021 2, 2021 2, 2021 4, 2021 5


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