Jonathan Taylor is your 1.01 now.

[MEuRaH]

Just to get back on track:

Taylor's highlights are long runs, many of which where he went untouched. He didn't need to create space or make defenders miss. The thing I got out of watching tape was how awesome that offensive line was. By the time Taylor reached his linemen, they had already pushed their opponents 2-3 yards downfield. It was an incredible display of power.

I went in to watch JT and came away impressed with the O-line. I can't even recall another time that's happened.

I already know the rebuttals: His combine numbers are amazing. I agree they are, but his game performance doesn't equal his combine performance, and that's always a red flag.

[themburns]

Just to get back on track:

Taylor's highlights are long runs, many of which where he went untouched. He didn't need to create space or make defenders miss. The thing I got out of watching tape was how awesome that offensive line was. By the time Taylor reached his linemen, they had already pushed their opponents 2-3 yards downfield. It was an incredible display of power.

I went in to watch JT and came away impressed with the O-line. I can't even recall another time that's happened.

I already know the rebuttals: His combine numbers are amazing. I agree they are, but his game performance doesn't equal his combine performance, and that's always a red flag.

Of the all time college rushing leaders, Jonathan Taylor has the most yardage of any 3 year RB in history. If that game performance doesn't equal his combine performance, I do not know who's performance is acceptable. (note: over 3 years so while the line might have been elite this year, it's hard to believe that was a static situation.)

I think you have a good point on Taylor, in that I don't think there is a huge gap between him and Dobbins or Swift. This kind of hyperbolic language makes it hard to trust your arguments. Also, when anyone appeals to their own authority, it's usually a mistake.

[bjd5211]

Just to get back on track:

Taylor's highlights are long runs, many of which where he went untouched. He didn't need to create space or make defenders miss. The thing I got out of watching tape was how awesome that offensive line was. By the time Taylor reached his linemen, they had already pushed their opponents 2-3 yards downfield. It was an incredible display of power.

I went in to watch JT and came away impressed with the O-line. I can't even recall another time that's happened.

I already know the rebuttals: His combine numbers are amazing. I agree they are, but his game performance doesn't equal his combine performance, and that's always a red flag.

Of the all time college rushing leaders, Jonathan Taylor has the most yardage of any 3 year RB in history. If that game performance doesn't equal his combine performance, I do not know who's performance is acceptable. (note: over 3 years so while the line might have been elite this year, it's hard to believe that was a static situation.)

I think you have a good point on Taylor, in that I don't think there is a huge gap between him and Dobbins or Swift. This kind of hyperbolic language makes it hard to trust your arguments. Also, when anyone appeals to their own authority, it's usually a mistake.

And he didn't accomplish that just because he is fast and played behind a great OL, he has to be pretty damn good himself.

[Orenthal Shames]

Just to get back on track:

Taylor's highlights are long runs, many of which where he went untouched. He didn't need to create space or make defenders miss. The thing I got out of watching tape was how awesome that offensive line was. By the time Taylor reached his linemen, they had already pushed their opponents 2-3 yards downfield. It was an incredible display of power.

I went in to watch JT and came away impressed with the O-line. I can't even recall another time that's happened.

I already know the rebuttals: His combine numbers are amazing. I agree they are, but his game performance doesn't equal his combine performance, and that's always a red flag.

So he's the Bizarro Cam Akers?

[SlimJim958]

Signed, Elijah Holyfield

I stopped posting my 3-part series because of this. Holyfield looked great on tape, as did a dozen RBs, but nothing could be supported with numbers until the combine. You're responding with a blip on my part 1 series, where I was teaching/showing others how I evaluate RBs so that they could maybe do the same.

The whole point was that some people look amazing on tape but fail to mirror that at the combine, and if that happens then that's a red flag. Holyfield was the best ever example of that, and I tried to highlight that in my 2nd part of the series. But all anybody ever focused on was that "Mike was wrong" and "look he completely changed his mind", missing the whole point entirely.

Every year I look at RBs I like a good 10-20 from the get go. Then the combine happens and that narrows it down considerably. Then team placement happens and I adjust one more time, and that's it. I tried to show that process, people didn't understand it, so I stopped showing it.
[/quote]

This is unfortunate. I enjoyed and understood the process that you posted. I always look forward to hearing your opinions, ESPECIALLY regarding RBs. Keep up the good work!

[MEuRaH]

Taylor's highlights are long runs, many of which where he went untouched. He didn't need to create space or make defenders miss. The thing I got out of watching tape was how awesome that offensive line was. By the time Taylor reached his linemen, they had already pushed their opponents 2-3 yards downfield. It was an incredible display of power.

I went in to watch JT and came away impressed with the O-line. I can't even recall another time that's happened.

I already know the rebuttals: His combine numbers are amazing. I agree they are, but his game performance doesn't equal his combine performance, and that's always a red flag.

Of the all time college rushing leaders, Jonathan Taylor has the most yardage of any 3 year RB in history. If that game performance doesn't equal his combine performance, I do not know who's performance is acceptable. (note: over 3 years so while the line might have been elite this year, it's hard to believe that was a static situation.)

I think you have a good point on Taylor, in that I don't think there is a huge gap between him and Dobbins or Swift. This kind of hyperbolic language makes it hard to trust your arguments. Also, when anyone appeals to their own authority, it's usually a mistake.

You're looking at everything strictly from a numbers point of view. His combine is as good or better than Swift and Dobbins, depending on ones opinion of what is most important for a running back. His collegiate stats are awesome, but college stats do not equal NFL success. Ron Dayne & Donnel Pumphrey had amazing college stats too.

His tape isn't impressive and that's the issue. His combine numbers are great. They show tremendous burst and agility, but his tape doesn't show JT running the proper zone plays requiring such talents, which means he never practiced those skills in college, meaning he still has to learn the position at the next level. His intelligence is the reason that he gives me hope. He comes across as a guy who can learn and improve.

Did I say "not a huge gap"? That's vague and I apologize. I believe Dobbins and Swift are sure-thing RBs. They are 1A and 1B, however you'd like to rank them. I think -- by default -- JT is the next man up. However I do not think he's even on the same tier as Dobbins & Swift. By taking JT, you are taking a chance that he'll learn and improve and become a star. I think the odds are in his favor, but I'd be very scared on drafting him anyway, especially if he goes to a team that can't use him properly (like what Seattle did with Penny).

Dobbins & Swift are my 1.01 and 1.02 picks. JT is probably 1.08 or so imo. To me, that's a pretty big gap.

And he didn't accomplish that just because he is fast and played behind a great OL, he has to be pretty damn good himself.

He was college RB good. In the NFL, you have to be able to create space and make defenders miss at the LOS. I saw one play where he made a defender miss at the LOS, and I half think he was falling down and regained his balance and accidentally juked the defender in the process. He made his living through elite strength and speed, which you can do at the college level, but it's going to take far more than that in the NFL to be successful.

[Johnny B. Goode]

Who cares if a guy has a good or bad track record. Even a blind squirrel finds a nut. While I might disagree with Mike on this point, Mike's opinion seems to be well thought out at least, which is more than several people can say.

There is nothing wrong with taking this stance and provoking this discussion. Often times debate like this is significantly helpful toward solidifying your original opinion.

I always appreciate someone taking the opposite stance on where I am on a player. It forces me to reevaluate my original take. Often times, in the end, I walk away with an even stronger, unchanged opinion on that player.

[MEuRaH]

I already know the rebuttals: His combine numbers are amazing. I agree they are, but his game performance doesn't equal his combine performance, and that's always a red flag.

So he's the Bizarro Cam Akers?

It's funny you say this, because that's exactly the issue with Cam. IMO, that's even worse. I want no part of Akers. He's a project with missing pieces. I think Cam can be decent & productive, but not elite.

My article about Swift, Dobbins, JT, and Cam Akers is about to post sometime today: https://dynastyleaguefootball.com/

[mgscott]

While he did have a good O-line, against their toughest opponents, they were far from dominant. In those games I saw Taylor fighting for a few yards when the blocking wasn't there, showing excellent vision, footwork and burst to find and get through a hole when it was there as well as the strength and speed to make a well blocked play into a big play. I guess we either see different things in runners when watching film or just have different types of backs we like. I like backs who can make defenders miss, but that also can be a lot easier at the college level vs the NFL. He is typically more of a one cut runner, so you wont see him make people miss at the line of scrimmage.

While I don't think he is far and away above Swift and Dobbins, I have him ranked ahead of them both at this time. If he does get drafted to a situation that isn't ideal or a system that won't run him as a power back, I may adjust him down depending on where Swift and Dobbins go.

[MEuRaH]

While I might disagree with Mike on this point

Can I get a clarification on some of these disagreements?

My original statement is that he's a flat-out bust in year 1 if he doesn't go right into a power system right away (49ers, Ravens). After that it's anyone's guess. He could tank or he could thrive. There's more to worry about with JT because he's an unfinished product unlike Dobbins & Swift who are placement-proof and therefore make better draft candidates.

Which of that do you disagree with? I see a lot of people disagreeing with me but I don't know where.

[Johnny B. Goode]

I already know the rebuttals: His combine numbers are amazing. I agree they are, but his game performance doesn't equal his combine performance, and that's always a red flag.

So he's the Bizarro Cam Akers?

It's funny you say this, because that's exactly the issue with Cam. IMO, that's even worse. I want no part of Akers. He's a project with missing pieces. I think Cam can be decent & productive, but not elite.

My article about Swift, Dobbins, JT, and Cam Akers is about to post sometime today: https://dynastyleaguefootball.com/

I agree regarding Cam. IMO he is the most overrated of this class

[FantasyFreak]

His combine is as good or better than Swift and Dobbins, depending on ones opinion of what is most important for a running back. His collegiate stats are awesome, but college stats do not equal NFL success. Ron Dayne & Donnel Pumphrey had amazing college stats too.

Dobbins did the bench press, so unless that's what you value, JT's combine was the only one you can evaluate.

[MEuRaH]

His combine is as good or better than Swift and Dobbins, depending on ones opinion of what is most important for a running back. His collegiate stats are awesome, but college stats do not equal NFL success. Ron Dayne & Donnel Pumphrey had amazing college stats too.

Dobbins did the bench press, so unless that's what you value, JT's combine was the only one you can evaluate.

Ugh... I wrote down target numbers I expected from each RB and I keep remembering those numbers and thinking he achieved them. Thank you.

[FantasyFreak]

His combine is as good or better than Swift and Dobbins, depending on ones opinion of what is most important for a running back. His collegiate stats are awesome, but college stats do not equal NFL success. Ron Dayne & Donnel Pumphrey had amazing college stats too.

Dobbins did the bench press, so unless that's what you value, JT's combine was the only one you can evaluate.

Ugh... I wrote down target numbers I expected from each RB and I keep remembering those numbers and thinking he achieved them. Thank you.

Honestly, I love Dobbins. He was timed at 4.32 at Ohio St. Probably a bit faster than reality, but Parris Cambell's numbers and McLaurin's during the same test were only about 5/100'th of a second faster than their combine time, which is the average of how much faster hand times are than combine, so Dobbins is still sub 4.4 at that time based on that.

He was the best athlete in the nation at a laser timed event in 2017, running a 4.45, and had a 43.1 inch vert, and a 4.09 20 yard shuttle. He was 99th percentile in every tested category. Literally the best at everything, so I think his athleticism pretty good still.

[FantasyFreak]

I already know the rebuttals: His combine numbers are amazing. I agree they are, but his game performance doesn't equal his combine performance, and that's always a red flag.

So he's the Bizarro Cam Akers?

It's funny you say this, because that's exactly the issue with Cam. IMO, that's even worse. I want no part of Akers. He's a project with missing pieces. I think Cam can be decent & productive, but not elite.

My article about Swift, Dobbins, JT, and Cam Akers is about to post sometime today: https://dynastyleaguefootball.com/

Akers is definitely more of a project than the other 3. He was a HS QB, so he's still learning the nuances of the position. He is also the youngest back in the class. A spot like Atlanta would be perfect. Come in slowly, like Sanders did last year. He does have a 3 down skill set, so he could be a year 2 guy that really comes on. Interesting short piece by Walman, calling him an "incomplete masterpiece".

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qgBSXB-umSs