Jonathan Taylor is your 1.01 now.

[ColdZealDonkeyStrike]

I appreciate strong takes that don't follow consensus. But I'm still taking Taylor #1. I don't see vision problems or issues with agility/ stop and go. My position since October is that he looks like Chubb without the injury history.
Now, it's true that Wisconsin RBs aren't asked to pass block much, and they frequently work the main back very hard on early downs and have other backs come in on 3rd down. There's probably going to be a learning curve before Taylor is trusted as a 3-down back in the NFL, similar to Melvin Gordon. But being a similar athlete at 15 lbs heavier compared to the rest of the class, his ceiling is a lot higher.

[FantasyFreak]

I appreciate strong takes that don't follow consensus. But I'm still taking Taylor #1. I don't see vision problems or issues with agility/ stop and go. My position since October is that he looks like Chubb without the injury history.
Now, it's true that Wisconsin RBs aren't asked to pass block much, and they frequently work the main back very hard on early downs and have other backs come in on 3rd down. There's probably going to be a learning curve before Taylor is trusted as a 3-down back in the NFL, similar to Melvin Gordon. But being a similar athlete at 15 lbs heavier compared to the rest of the class, his ceiling is a lot higher.

A better athlete, for the most part.

[Johnny B. Goode]

Not in my books. Not unless he drops to the third round or something. Tons of people still took Guice at 1.02, even though he was the 7th RB off the board. Probably not the best example, but injuries really cut Guice down, not his inability as a football player. If it's the difference between first and 2nd round, I say go with your guy. I took AJB over Hollywood last year, and don't regret it. People that took MT over Treadwell certainly don't. People that took Chubb over Penny and Michel are laughing, etc. etc.

I get it, but 1.01 has different standards, no? how often is the 1.01 not the guy with the highest draft capital at his position?

I mean my first example was 1.02, so it was the 7th player at his position at 1.02. With 1.01, take your guy IMO. It's a big pick for your Dynasty Team, don't make it solely on the fact he wasn't the first guy off the board at his position IMO. With his analytical profile, he's an all time type prospect analytically, so if he's the 2nd or 3rd RB off the board, I see no reason to downgrade him, personally. If you pay no attention to analytics, then I guess you might be more inclined to move him down. I could see an NFL team drafting CEH over him. If I were in charge I wouldn't do that, but I'm not going to let that affect my view on Taylor vs CEH, for instance.

I think he should come off as one of the top few backs. Having a pro day and others not having them helped, I think. JT followed up his strong showing receiving at the combine at his pro day. There are clips out there. Per Randy Moss:

At Wisconsin’s pro day, RB Jonathan Taylor @JayT23 looked like a WR on a couple of downfield routes. As a first-round prospect and with 6,000 yards rushing as a Badger, that’s pretty much all he has left to prove to NFL scouts.

I agree. Curious how many others do.

Taylor had a strong combine. dlf mike has some interesting things to say about him. Not sure I agree but I do like reading his stuff. He seems unlikely to be the 1st RB taken in the draft (at least based off what I am reading).
I hold 1.01 in one league and 1.02 in another. I'm hoping to get the same guy tbh and curious what those chances are

[bjd5211]

It's weird to me that people are focusing in the pass blocking and completely avoiding the other parts of my writeup that mean far more in terms of his value. He has NO technique. None. Zilch. He's big and fast and he has quick feet, but if he has no skills to go along with his traits, then he's JAG at the next level. Where's the stop-and-go footwork that every RB needs to possess? Where did he ever show ability to find cut back lanes? Why can't he keep his hips pointed downfield when he avoids tacklers?

The pass blocking part sucks but that's not an area that's as big a red flag as the other things I've mentioned.

There is no way this is true for a guy with 3 seasons near or over 2,000 yards rushing in the Big-10 in 3 years of play. Sure if he's just a great athlete behind one of the best OLs in the country he will put up numbers, but he's not putting up THOSE numbers on athleticism/OL alone, he's got to have talent and the skills of the position too.

[Hottoddies]

It's weird to me that people are focusing in the pass blocking and completely avoiding the other parts of my writeup that mean far more in terms of his value. He has NO technique. None. Zilch. He's big and fast and he has quick feet, but if he has no skills to go along with his traits, then he's JAG at the next level. Where's the stop-and-go footwork that every RB needs to possess? Where did he ever show ability to find cut back lanes? Why can't he keep his hips pointed downfield when he avoids tacklers?

The pass blocking part sucks but that's not an area that's as big a red flag as the other things I've mentioned.

There is no way this is true for a guy with 3 seasons near or over 2,000 yards rushing in the Big-10 in 3 years of play. Sure if he's just a great athlete behind one of the best OLs in the country he will put up numbers, but he's not putting up THOSE numbers on athleticism/OL alone, he's got to have talent and the skills of the position too.

Football is a team sport. We've certainly seen JAGs put up highly productive seasons in the NFL in ideal situations.

[honcho55]

Huh, first time I’ve not been on the same page as mike since I’ve been here. Course, I put a ton of stock into draft capital so if he drops I will ding him.

For reference, I go back and forth with Swift/Taylor as 1.01, and have dobbins in the same tier, until the draft.

I can say though, I do see that Taylor is higher on the side of being athletically gifted than skilled, agree there. Where I differ I guess, is what the conclusion to that is: he can learn. I suppose he hasn’t had to yet? Honestly unsure how much he needs to, to be successful at the NFL level, and if he makes big strides? Whoa.

[bjd5211]

It's weird to me that people are focusing in the pass blocking and completely avoiding the other parts of my writeup that mean far more in terms of his value. He has NO technique. None. Zilch. He's big and fast and he has quick feet, but if he has no skills to go along with his traits, then he's JAG at the next level. Where's the stop-and-go footwork that every RB needs to possess? Where did he ever show ability to find cut back lanes? Why can't he keep his hips pointed downfield when he avoids tacklers?

The pass blocking part sucks but that's not an area that's as big a red flag as the other things I've mentioned.

There is no way this is true for a guy with 3 seasons near or over 2,000 yards rushing in the Big-10 in 3 years of play. Sure if he's just a great athlete behind one of the best OLs in the country he will put up numbers, but he's not putting up THOSE numbers on athleticism/OL alone, he's got to have talent and the skills of the position too.

Football is a team sport. We've certainly seen JAGs put up highly productive seasons in the NFL in ideal situations.

Not every season they've played though. Jonathan Taylor has 3 seasons of play and in those 3 seasons had 1,977/2,194/2,003 yards rushing in the #2 conference in college football.

[FantasyFreak]

There is no way this is true for a guy with 3 seasons near or over 2,000 yards rushing in the Big-10 in 3 years of play. Sure if he's just a great athlete behind one of the best OLs in the country he will put up numbers, but he's not putting up THOSE numbers on athleticism/OL alone, he's got to have talent and the skills of the position too.

Football is a team sport. We've certainly seen JAGs put up highly productive seasons in the NFL in ideal situations.

Not every season they've played though. Jonathan Taylor has 3 seasons of play and in those 3 seasons had 1,977/2,194/2,003 yards rushing in the #2 conference in college football.

Yeah, Taylor doesn't really enter into this conversation of a JAG. His production is basically unprecedented, as a 3 year college player. Combine that with a 99th percentile size adjusted speed score, and the idea he is a JAG ridiculous. There is really not any objective evidence to suggest Taylor is a JAG. The only thing people can hang their hat on to say that is watching TV.

[Pac_Eddy]

Taylor's size, speed, production, and lack of pass game chops remind me of Adrian Peterson.

Is that a reasonable comparison as far as run style and footwork?

[bjd5211]

Taylor's size, speed, production, and lack of pass game chops remind me of Adrian Peterson.

Is that a reasonable comparison as far as run style and footwork?

I don't think it's that far-fetched. Taylor would have been considered a far better prospect than he is today if he were coming out about the same time in NFL history as AP did, and AP would not have been as highly regarded if he were entering the draft this year.

[Packerland]

Taylor's size, speed, production, and lack of pass game chops remind me of Adrian Peterson.

Is that a reasonable comparison as far as run style and footwork?

I don't think it's that far-fetched. Taylor would have been considered are far better prospect if he were coming out about the same time in NFL history as AP did, and AP would not have been as highly regarded if he were entering the draft this year.

If Taylor turns out to be half of what AP became then please sign me up! AP is one of the most physically gifted RB's of all time.

[bjd5211]

Taylor's size, speed, production, and lack of pass game chops remind me of Adrian Peterson.

Is that a reasonable comparison as far as run style and footwork?

I don't think it's that far-fetched. Taylor would have been considered are far better prospect if he were coming out about the same time in NFL history as AP did, and AP would not have been as highly regarded if he were entering the draft this year.

If Taylor turns out to be half of what AP became then please sign me up! AP is one of the most physically gifted RB's of all time.

And so is Taylor as a pure athlete as evidenced by his combine results.

[YouMightDieTryin]

(copied over from the longest thread ever)
stoneghost28:

Brent Moss: '95: Undrafted. 1 year in the NFL, had a 1637 yard 16 TD season in '93 with Wisconsin.

Terrell Fletcher: '95 2nd Round Pick, 1476 yard 13 TD season in '94 and 20+ catches. Had an eight year career in NFL, but never produced more than 500+ yards rushing in a season. Was a solid satellite back (246 catches in the six seasons sandwiched around his rookie year and career finale seasons (so 40+ catches a year in that window)), but at that 2nd round cost, yikes. Not exactly a bust, or a hit.

Ron Dayne '00: Nearly 7500 yards rushing and receiving in four years, w/two 2,000 years rushing. The ultimate Wisconsin OL back. Just SLOW. Megabust (11th overall pick, never topped 773 yards in a season), but oddly did have a 7 year career, and rather interesting to note that like he was a reverse Fletcher, in his rookie and career finale season's he combined for more than 1500 rushing yards and 11 TD's. In-between those two seasons, in his five remaining years, he combined for a touch more than 2,000 years. So rather odd career, especially considering he was actually quite productive for Houston in that final season. Don't remember what happened after that (why he'd be done after his second best career season).

Michael Bennett '01: Another guy with that classic 1600 yards rushing, double digit TD season. He was a first round draft pick of the Vikes in '01, and had that famed '02 season (1600+ yards from scrimmage, 37 catches, an absurdly low 6 TDs. After that his career was derailed by injury. I always include him as a hit, along with Gordon, but it's not exactly true. Michael Bennett was a legit talent, not a bust in terms of talent, but he never, ever could stay healthy, and so he was a health, rather than a talent (see Dayne) related bust.

Anthony Davis: '05: Exploded in his first two years (3,000+ yards rushing, and 24 TD's) before fading badly in his final two (injury I imagine). Was drafted in the 7th round and quickly kicked to the curb. Played for two years in the CFL before retiring.

Brian Calhoun: '06: Transfer from Colorado, put together yet another 1600 double digit season in his one year with Wisconsin following the transfer. Third round pick of the lines. Played two years and then was done perhaps due to a torn ACL.

P.J. Hill: '09: Exploded for nearly 1,600 yards and double digit TD's in his first season, rushed for a 1000+ in his final two years. Tried to make it in the NFL, it did not happen. Zero career carries.

John Clay: Rushed for nearly 1600 yards in his second season as a starter, like Hill, he'd top off at more than 3000 career rushing yards and a gigantic pile of TD's. Went undrafted, played a tiny bit for the Steelers as an undrafted free agent before vanishing.

Montee Ball '13: After sitting behind Clay for two years he rushed for nearly 4,000 total yards combined his final two years with an additional 55 TD's (55?!?!?!). Drafted w/a 2nd rounder in 2013, he did little with Denver, got injured, bounced around and was gone w/only two years worth of actual carries.

James White: '14: 1700 yards rushing and receiving (39 catches) in his one season out of Ball's shadow. Parlayed that into a fourth round deal with the Patriots, and a long career as one of their Swiss army knife rib's.

Melvin Gordon '15: More than 4200 yards from scrimmage and 40+ TD's his final two seasons. 1st round selection of the Chargers in '15. Quite productive, if uneven, with the Chargers.

Corey Clement: '17: Rushed for 1375 yards in his one season as a full time starter. Day 3 selection for the Eagles, saw some run as a rookie Swiss army knife, but has faded badly since and missed most of '19 due to injury.

All these RB's came out of Wisco. And what did they do at the next level? All were considered decent collegiate stars. Granted I do see JT as a whole different level than any of those mentioned so I'm not over thinking it. He's still my 1.1/1.2. Just lingers in the back of my mind if he's another product of the system.

As for the hips thing. Is that something that can be fixed? Or why hasn't a RB coach picked up on it and fixed if it's an issue?

[FantasyFreak]

None of the above players did what Taylor did as a freshman or to the consistency and elite level Taylor did, nor did they test as well athletically. Gordon had 1 great year as a 21 year as a RS junior. Tape is so subjective. Everyone sees things a little differently. For instance, here's 1 play, were Waldman talks about good footwork and hips.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MYL9QQdZC0w

[Packerland]

(copied over from the longest thread ever)
stoneghost28:

Brent Moss: '95: Undrafted. 1 year in the NFL, had a 1637 yard 16 TD season in '93 with Wisconsin.

Terrell Fletcher: '95 2nd Round Pick, 1476 yard 13 TD season in '94 and 20+ catches. Had an eight year career in NFL, but never produced more than 500+ yards rushing in a season. Was a solid satellite back (246 catches in the six seasons sandwiched around his rookie year and career finale seasons (so 40+ catches a year in that window)), but at that 2nd round cost, yikes. Not exactly a bust, or a hit.

Ron Dayne '00: Nearly 7500 yards rushing and receiving in four years, w/two 2,000 years rushing. The ultimate Wisconsin OL back. Just SLOW. Megabust (11th overall pick, never topped 773 yards in a season), but oddly did have a 7 year career, and rather interesting to note that like he was a reverse Fletcher, in his rookie and career finale season's he combined for more than 1500 rushing yards and 11 TD's. In-between those two seasons, in his five remaining years, he combined for a touch more than 2,000 years. So rather odd career, especially considering he was actually quite productive for Houston in that final season. Don't remember what happened after that (why he'd be done after his second best career season).

Michael Bennett '01: Another guy with that classic 1600 yards rushing, double digit TD season. He was a first round draft pick of the Vikes in '01, and had that famed '02 season (1600+ yards from scrimmage, 37 catches, an absurdly low 6 TDs. After that his career was derailed by injury. I always include him as a hit, along with Gordon, but it's not exactly true. Michael Bennett was a legit talent, not a bust in terms of talent, but he never, ever could stay healthy, and so he was a health, rather than a talent (see Dayne) related bust.

Anthony Davis: '05: Exploded in his first two years (3,000+ yards rushing, and 24 TD's) before fading badly in his final two (injury I imagine). Was drafted in the 7th round and quickly kicked to the curb. Played for two years in the CFL before retiring.

Brian Calhoun: '06: Transfer from Colorado, put together yet another 1600 double digit season in his one year with Wisconsin following the transfer. Third round pick of the lines. Played two years and then was done perhaps due to a torn ACL.

P.J. Hill: '09: Exploded for nearly 1,600 yards and double digit TD's in his first season, rushed for a 1000+ in his final two years. Tried to make it in the NFL, it did not happen. Zero career carries.

John Clay: Rushed for nearly 1600 yards in his second season as a starter, like Hill, he'd top off at more than 3000 career rushing yards and a gigantic pile of TD's. Went undrafted, played a tiny bit for the Steelers as an undrafted free agent before vanishing.

Montee Ball '13: After sitting behind Clay for two years he rushed for nearly 4,000 total yards combined his final two years with an additional 55 TD's (55?!?!?!). Drafted w/a 2nd rounder in 2013, he did little with Denver, got injured, bounced around and was gone w/only two years worth of actual carries.

James White: '14: 1700 yards rushing and receiving (39 catches) in his one season out of Ball's shadow. Parlayed that into a fourth round deal with the Patriots, and a long career as one of their Swiss army knife rib's.

Melvin Gordon '15: More than 4200 yards from scrimmage and 40+ TD's his final two seasons. 1st round selection of the Chargers in '15. Quite productive, if uneven, with the Chargers.

Corey Clement: '17: Rushed for 1375 yards in his one season as a full time starter. Day 3 selection for the Eagles, saw some run as a rookie Swiss army knife, but has faded badly since and missed most of '19 due to injury.

All these RB's came out of Wisco. And what did they do at the next level? All were considered decent collegiate stars. Granted I do see JT as a whole different level than any of those mentioned so I'm not over thinking it. He's still my 1.1/1.2. Just lingers in the back of my mind if he's another product of the system.

As for the hips thing. Is that something that can be fixed? Or why hasn't a RB coach picked up on it and fixed if it's an issue?

I am from Wisconsin and have seen all of these RB's play in person. I can tell you that JT is on another level athletically than any of the players on this list. Additionally, I don't think you can really call James White or Melvin Gordon busts. Both have carved out pretty good careers for themselves. JT is a very smooth and patient runner who can move the pile and usually falls forward, you can see that from the tape. I also know he has amazing explosion and can take any carry to the house. He's one of the best RB's I've seen in the Big 10 and that's putting him up there with Saquon, Eddie George, Gordon, Ki-Jana Carter (in college), etc.