The Most Over-Rated 2020 Rookie RB Is... Jonathan Taylor

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The Most Over-Rated 2020 Rookie RB Is... Jonathan Taylor

Postby dlf_mikeh » Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:20 pm

Jonathan Taylor

SKIP AHEAD TO 4:21



Link if the above doesn't work for you: https://youtu.be/fEru-GbOWuA?t=260

I just wrote my first article on rookie RBs, so I'm not going to give everything away, but I do believe that this years fools gold is JT. I like his size and I love his speed, I do not like much else. He doesn't have proper technique (stop and go, cut backs, jump cuts, etc) and he leans into his turns rather than pointing his hips. THIS IS MY BIGGEST CONCERN. He needs to go to a power system, and even then, there's no proof he'll succeed.

His entire highlight reel consists of power plays with lead blockers, whether it's a fullback or pulling guards, JT seldom was asked to find a crease and make a move. He also wasn't asked to create space or make defenders miss at the line of scrimmage. I'm not saying he can't do it, just that there's no sustainable proof than he can. Such skills are usually needed at the next level in order to be successful.

Unlike other rookie RBs that I've disliked, I think Taylor can adapt with time. His one saving grace is that he's a smart kid, and his combine numbers show that he has the ability to be successful in other facets. But that's going to take a lot of coaching and a lot of time, and there's no proof that he'll ever be capable of anything other than power, so who truly knows? He's like a much smaller Derrick Henry. His rookie season will be a bust if he's not running behind a fullback or pulling guard, and even then he'll be part of a RBBC.

One final knock on his game is his inability to play on third downs. Whenever Wisconsin was forced to pass, Taylor came off the field. He was not asked to stay in and block, nor was he asked to run a lot of routes other than the wheel route. If he's a liability on third down, that will limit his ability to rack up fantasy points vs guys like Kamara, CMC, etc. His pass blocking is a smaller concern but still worth mentioning.

Do not waste your 1.02 on this kid. He's not a major bust like DH, RJ3, or Penny (all guys I've hated with a passion in the past) but he's not worth your top 6 pick either. You're better off with a top WR or with JK Dobbins (who I find to be as equal, if not better than Swift btw). He could be a good buy low in the 2021 off-season, but for 2020 I'd pretty much avoid at all costs.

===================================================

EDIT: Props to mgscott, who showed me a video vs Iowa: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QgVytqLfJ6A

Nearing the 5:18 mark he picked up a stunt blitz, which required good recognition and patience. I still question why he wasn't used more often as a weapon on crucial third downs, but at least we can see his ability as a pass blocker.

EDIT2 (4/3/20): Instead of bumping this thread back up, I wanted to add that I think the most fair comparison is Latavius Murray. Murray entered the league as a big man who had great speed and agility and proved it with amazing numbers on his pro day, but he failed to be anything other than a big man with occasional moves in the NFL. My fear is that Taylor could end up in the same career path as Murray. Not that he will, just that he could. He has the tools to be much more, but I'd still rather play it safe and draft a product that's more complete than draft a better product that needs work.

Murray: https://www.mockdraftable.com/player/latavius-murray
Taylor: https://www.mockdraftable.com/player/jonathan-taylor

EDIT3 (4/13/20): I love his feet. I was bored so I scouted him again and the guy has probably the fastest feet I've ever seen. When tacklers go low to take him down he has such quick feet that it's nearly impossible to get their hands on him. I still hate how he leans into his cuts and he doesn't get low. He relies far too much on speed and power for my liking. But damn... those feet are impressive.
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Re: The Most Over-Rated 2020 Rookie RB Is...

Postby Cameron Giles » Tue Mar 24, 2020 4:09 pm

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Re: The Most Over-Rated 2020 Rookie RB Is...

Postby FantasyFreak » Tue Mar 24, 2020 4:21 pm

Will gladly waste a rookie pick on him. Definitely worth top 6.
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Wentz, Stafford. Driskel
Chubb, Cook, Breida, Ekeler, Penny, James White, D Washington
Evans, Sutton, Woods, Crowder, Agholor, Sanu, , D Robinson, T Taylor
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Re: The Most Over-Rated 2020 Rookie RB Is...

Postby MattDeezy » Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:01 pm

Liar.
A
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1Q|2R|3W|1T|1SF|2FLX
Q: Burrow, JimmyG, TeddyB, Brissett
R: Henry, Singletary, Swift, Dillon, Lindsay, Cohen, Hines
W: MThomas, Tyreek, Parker, Fuller, Davis, Slayton, Mims
T: OJH, Ian Thomas, Rudolph, Sprinkle

B
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1Q|2R|3W|1T|2FLX
Q: Burrow, Cousins, Herbert
R: CEH, Swift, Guice, Moss, Gibson
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T: Fant, Rudolph, Sample, Asiasi
2021: 2, 4

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Re: The Most Over-Rated 2020 Rookie RB Is...

Postby MrUbuto » Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:03 pm

Who is the DH you included as a bust? Derrick henry the NFL rushing champ and number 3 fantasy RB?

also taylor caught more balls than swift, it's a myth he can't be used in the passing game
QB - DWatson(HOU)Winston(TB)Finely(DEN)
RB - TGurley(LAR)DJohnson(ARI)NChubb(CLE)DHenry(TEN)
WR - ODB(NYG)AJ Green(CIN)ACooper (DAL)CDavis(TEN)
TE - HHenry(SD)DGoeddart(PHI)
K - Zurlien(LAR)Badgley(LAC)
Def - JAGS DET
[rookie] NHarry(NE)MBrown(BAL)Haskins(WAS)

1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2 - 2020's
Rosters must always be 3qbs 4wrs 4rbs 2tes 2kickers 2dst and protected players dont take up a roster spot, but are only for rookie/2nd year players that were drafted

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Re: The Most Over-Rated 2020 Rookie RB Is...

Postby alewilliam789 » Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:03 pm

dlf_mikeh wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:20 pm
Jonathan Taylor

I just wrote my first article on rookie RBs, so I'm not going to give everything away, but I do believe that this years fools gold is JT. I like his size and I love his speed, I do not like much else. He doesn't have proper technique (stop and go, cut backs, jump cuts, etc) and he leans into his turns rather than pointing his hips. He needs to go to a power system, and even then, there's no proof he'll succeed.

Unlike other rookie RBs that I've disliked, I think Taylor can adapt with time. His one saving grace is that he's a smart kid, and his combine numbers show that he has the ability to be successful in other facets. But that's going to take a lot of coaching and a lot of time, and there's no proof that he'll ever be capable of anything other than power, so who truly knows? He's like a much smaller Derrick Henry. His rookie season will be a bust if he's not running behind a fullback or pulling guard, and even then he'll be part of a RBBC.

One final knock on his game is his inability to play on third downs. Whenever Wisconsin was forced to pass, Taylor came off the field. He was not asked to stay in and block, nor was he asked to run a lot of routes other than the wheel route. If he's a liability on third down, that will limit his ability to rack up fantasy points vs guys like Kamara, CMC, etc.

Do not waste your 1.02 on this kid. He's not a major bust like DH, RJ3, or Penny (all guys I've hated with a passion in the past) but he's not worth your top 6 pick either. You're better off with a top WR or with JK Dobbins (who I find to be as equal, if not better than Swift btw). He could be a good buy low in the 2021 off-season, but for 2020 I'd pretty much avoid at all costs.
So having said all this, what qualities/makes Swift a better prospect? Because I love Taylor’s combination of speed/power/hands. I dont think he has a ton of wiggle, but I didn’t think Chubb did either at Georgia. He can make subtle cuts in the hole to find cutback lanes. I have Taylor and Swift at 1 and 2 and keep switching them around constantly.
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1.05, 3.06


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QB: Rivers, Wentz, Lock
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2020-
1st and 3rd

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1 K 1D/ST — 20 man rosters
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Re: The Most Over-Rated 2020 Rookie RB Is...

Postby FantasyFreak » Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:09 pm

MrUbuto wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:03 pm
Who is the DH you included as a bust? Derrick henry the NFL rushing champ and number 3 fantasy RB?

also taylor caught more balls than swift, it's a myth he can't be used in the passing game
Henderson.
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Record: 28-5 Division Champ/League High Scorer/Runner Up

Wentz, Stafford. Driskel
Chubb, Cook, Breida, Ekeler, Penny, James White, D Washington
Evans, Sutton, Woods, Crowder, Agholor, Sanu, , D Robinson, T Taylor
Kittle, Olsen, McDonald, Clay

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Re: The Most Over-Rated 2020 Rookie RB Is...

Postby JohnnyBoyRoss » Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:21 pm

Mike, do you have a link to your initial report for 2020?
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Re: The Most Over-Rated 2020 Rookie RB Is...

Postby MrUbuto » Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:45 pm

FantasyFreak wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:09 pm
MrUbuto wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:03 pm
Who is the DH you included as a bust? Derrick henry the NFL rushing champ and number 3 fantasy RB?

also taylor caught more balls than swift, it's a myth he can't be used in the passing game
Henderson.
I'm pretty much captain of the "DON'T DRAFT HENEDERSON IN THE FIRST ROUND" club, but even I think it's ridiculous to call him a bust, especially now that Gurley has left
QB - DWatson(HOU)Winston(TB)Finely(DEN)
RB - TGurley(LAR)DJohnson(ARI)NChubb(CLE)DHenry(TEN)
WR - ODB(NYG)AJ Green(CIN)ACooper (DAL)CDavis(TEN)
TE - HHenry(SD)DGoeddart(PHI)
K - Zurlien(LAR)Badgley(LAC)
Def - JAGS DET
[rookie] NHarry(NE)MBrown(BAL)Haskins(WAS)

1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2 - 2020's
Rosters must always be 3qbs 4wrs 4rbs 2tes 2kickers 2dst and protected players dont take up a roster spot, but are only for rookie/2nd year players that were drafted

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Re: The Most Over-Rated 2020 Rookie RB Is...

Postby Hottoddies » Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:49 pm

Glad to hear that I'm not totally alone on a island when I have 3 RBs ranked ahead of Taylor. I don't think he'll bust, but I do prefer others(including CEH) ahead of him. I do have to warn you though that this will be a VERY unpopular take.
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Re: The Most Over-Rated 2020 Rookie RB Is...

Postby FantasyFreak » Tue Mar 24, 2020 6:04 pm

MrUbuto wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:45 pm
FantasyFreak wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:09 pm
MrUbuto wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:03 pm
Who is the DH you included as a bust? Derrick henry the NFL rushing champ and number 3 fantasy RB?

also taylor caught more balls than swift, it's a myth he can't be used in the passing game
Henderson.
I'm pretty much captain of the "DON'T DRAFT HENEDERSON IN THE FIRST ROUND" club, but even I think it's ridiculous to call him a bust, especially now that Gurley has left
Not arguing that.
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Wentz, Stafford. Driskel
Chubb, Cook, Breida, Ekeler, Penny, James White, D Washington
Evans, Sutton, Woods, Crowder, Agholor, Sanu, , D Robinson, T Taylor
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Re: The Most Over-Rated 2020 Rookie RB Is...

Postby PR0v3 » Tue Mar 24, 2020 6:04 pm

The fantasy community has been and still is way higher on Taylor than the draft/scouting community. It is not even clear if Taylor will be the first RB off the board, as many mocks still have him in the round two range.

I do not find this take surprising, given OPs history, as it seems to break from the casual fantasy footballer opinion and fall more in line with the professionals.

I’m always skeptical of commonly held opinions by amateurs that don’t align with the professionals.
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Re: The Most Over-Rated 2020 Rookie RB Is...

Postby azthecrow » Tue Mar 24, 2020 6:13 pm

Thanks Mike,
This was perfectly timed.
It was getting quiet around here. I always appreciate your write-ups.

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Re: The Most Over-Rated 2020 Rookie RB Is...

Postby FantasyFreak » Tue Mar 24, 2020 6:15 pm

PR0v3 wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 6:04 pm
The fantasy community has been and still is way higher on Taylor than the draft/scouting community. It is not even clear if Taylor will be the first RB off the board, as many mocks still have him in the round two range.

I do not find this take surprising, given OPs history, as it seems to break from the casual fantasy footballer opinion and fall more in line with the professionals.

I’m always skeptical of commonly held opinions by amateurs that don’t align with the professionals.
So Bucky Brook saying Gurley will be an MVP candidate this year is a lock? He has JT as his RB5. Then again, at the end of February last year, he had Riley Ridley as a first round WR, and a lot of people that weren't involved in his industry sure didn't. I understand what you are saying, but most of these guys lost their jobs years ago as scouts or whatever their role was in an organization, and simply watch film, don't utilize metrics, or any newer and useful form of information. I never hear anything about metrics in the draft scout community. It remains to be seen where Taylor goes, but regardless, he's a lock to be a top 2 round RB, and many players in the 2nd round end up being better than players drafted ahead of them. MT, AJ Brown etc. etc.

The difference with Taylor, compared to a lot of other situations, is analytically, he's an elite prospect. So it will be interesting to see what ends up happening.
Last edited by FantasyFreak on Tue Mar 24, 2020 6:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Record: 28-5 Division Champ/League High Scorer/Runner Up

Wentz, Stafford. Driskel
Chubb, Cook, Breida, Ekeler, Penny, James White, D Washington
Evans, Sutton, Woods, Crowder, Agholor, Sanu, , D Robinson, T Taylor
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Re: The Most Over-Rated 2020 Rookie RB Is...

Postby dlf_mikeh » Tue Mar 24, 2020 6:29 pm

alewilliam789 wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:03 pm
So having said all this, what qualities/makes Swift a better prospect? Because I love Taylor’s combination of speed/power/hands. I dont think he has a ton of wiggle, but I didn’t think Chubb did either at Georgia. He can make subtle cuts in the hole to find cutback lanes. I have Taylor and Swift at 1 and 2 and keep switching them around constantly.
Fair question, but I wouldn't go on to compare JT to Chubb, who I argue has better vision, proper stop-and-go technique, and can play on third downs. There's a difference between talent and skill. Talent is something you're born with like great strength and agility, and you can work on those things to improve but your genes gave you an edge. Skill is something you have to create from scratch and work on improving over time. Throwing a football, tackling, etc. Chubb came out of college with far better skills than JT (imo).

Simply put for Swift: He has it all. He's not on the elite level as I had Zeke or Barkley, but he's has the perfect combination of talent and skill combined into one. He's far more polished than Jonathan Taylor and it's not close.
JohnnyBoyRoss wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:21 pm
Mike, do you have a link to your initial report for 2020?
It's not out yet.
MrUbuto wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:45 pm
I'm pretty much captain of the "DON'T DRAFT HENEDERSON IN THE FIRST ROUND" club, but even I think it's ridiculous to call him a bust, especially now that Gurley has left
Opportunity means he's not a bust? Joking aside, I agree that he's not a bust..... yet. He was a 2019 bust is what I should have said.
Hottoddies wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:49 pm
Glad to hear that I'm not totally alone on a island when I have 3 RBs ranked ahead of Taylor. I don't think he'll bust, but I do prefer others(including CEH) ahead of him. I do have to warn you though that this will be a VERY unpopular take.
I'm not new to unpopular takes. BTW, I've noticed that you and I have had similar opinions for quite a while. Every time something is said on these forums that I agree with I look at the author and your name pops up more than most. Nice.
PR0v3 wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 6:04 pm
I do not find this take surprising, given OPs history, as it seems to break from the casual fantasy footballer opinion and fall more in line with the professionals.
On the contrary. I am the sole ranker that does not have him as #1 or #2. I would say I'm not in line with the professionals at all: https://dynastyleaguefootball.com/2020- ... -rankings/

EDIT: Turns out that Jeff H also doesn't have him in the top 2, so I'm not the "sole ranker".
FantasyFreak wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 6:15 pm
The difference with Taylor, compared to a lot of other situations, is analytically, he's an elite prospect. So it will be interesting to see what ends up happening.
Yep, and this is exactly why I said that I would avoid him in 2020 and buy low for next year. It's because of the analytics. I think he's a project player, and it will remain to be seen if he'll ever catch on or not. I'd rather not take the risk. If he became an elite prospect I wouldn't be shocked. If he failed I wouldn't be shocked.

If he took the NFL by storm and dominated 2020, I'd be shocked.
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